The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

No Mercy / No Malice: Rare Earths

Date: January 10, 2026
Read by: George Hahn
Episode Focus: The geopolitical significance of rare earth elements, China’s dominance, and the lessons for the U.S. based on history, strategy, and industrial planning.

Overview

In this edition of "No Mercy / No Malice," Scott Galloway—read by George Hahn—draws historical parallels between today’s rare earth element rivalry with China and previous “resource wars” over oil, salt, guano, and rubber. The episode provides a compelling, critical analysis of the U.S. strategic vulnerabilities regarding rare earth supply, China’s long-term vision, and America’s struggles with innovation, industrial policy, and global alliances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

I. Historic Lessons on Resource Dependence

• Energy Dependence Parallel:

  • Refers to the 1973 OPEC embargo as a “painful lesson in energy dependence,” framing rare earths as today’s strategic resource (02:00).
  • Quote: “A similar lesson is playing out today. China's stranglehold on rare earth mining and processing has gives it enormous power to dictate global affairs.” – [03:00]

• Pattern of Wars for Resources:

  • Ancient Rome’s strategic control over salt, Peru’s 19th-century guano monopoly, WWII rubber shortages, and OPEC’s oil embargo all cited as pivotal examples where resources dictated national strength and foreign policy (07:00–09:00).
  • Memorable quote (on guano): “Guano was so valuable that many called it white gold.” – [07:45]

II. What Are Rare Earths and Why Are They So Important?

• Definition & Ubiquity:
  • “Rare earths is an umbrella term for 17 metallic elements. Despite the name, they aren't especially rare, just difficult to extract and refine.” – [05:05]
  • Rare earths are integral to modern tech (smartphones, green energy, medical devices, defense systems).
• Military Reliance:
  • Details RAND’s estimate: an F-35 fighter jet contains 900+ lbs of rare earths; a destroyer, 5,200 lbs; a submarine, 9,200 lbs. – [05:55]

III. China as the New OPEC

• Market Share & Leverage:

  • China supplies 70% of rare earth ore and 90% of refined materials globally; the U.S. imports 70% of its rare earths from China – [11:10].
  • Cites China’s history of weaponizing rare earth supply, exemplified by export bans to Japan (2010, 2025) and the U.S. (2025).
  • Quote: “If rare earths are the new oil, China is the new OPEC.” – [11:00]

• Geopolitical Tensions:

  • The U.S. has attempted to diversify sources, including deals with Greenland and Ukraine, but faces major delays and obstacles (13:50).
  • Quote: “We’re threatening to seize Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally, despite Greenland's rare earth deposits being low grade and costly to extract.” – [13:40]

IV. U.S. Vulnerabilities and Missed Opportunities

• Hobbled Domestic Production:

  • U.S. firms take, on average, 29 years to go from discovery to operation; U.S. is near rock-bottom in speed to market (15:00).
  • “Unfortunately, it takes American mining firms an average of 29 years to go from discovery to operations, putting the US next to last worldwide, just ahead of Zambia.” – [15:10]

• Short-termism and Political Paralysis:

  • Points to budget chaos, research underfunding, xenophobic immigration policy as undermining the U.S.’s competitive edge and ability for long-term planning (15:50).

V. Paths Forward—and Warnings

• Innovation, Partnerships, Policy Needed:

  • Both the Biden and Trump administrations identified the threat but failed on sustained, coordinated action (14:50).
  • Strategic investment, not physical scarcity, is the real challenge:
    • “Rare earths aren't rare, long-term strategic investment is. And the scarcest resource in America today is leaders who will invest in a future we don't immediately profit from.” – [16:00]

• Call to Statesmanship:

  • Galloway’s closing metaphor:
    • “Old men should plant trees whose shade they know they'll never sit in.” – [16:05]
  • On America’s rare earth crisis:
    • “Our rare earths deficit developed at the speed Hemingway attributed to bankruptcy. Gradually, then suddenly.” – [16:10]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S. Military Prowess vs Political Motive:
  “Specialized helicopters accomplished in 35 minutes what Putin has been unable to accomplish in Ukraine in 35 months.” – [03:30]

• On Venezuela Strike and Oil:
  "Trump's real objective is oil. In a press conference announcing Maduro's capture, the president mentioned drugs just five times while talking about oil 27 times." – [04:00]

• On the Long Game:
  “China monopolized rare earths by providing capital ... and eventually consolidating its industry into a few giant players, giving it leverage over prices. In other words, China played the long game.” – [15:20]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 03:00: China’s rare earth stranglehold in context
• 05:05: Rare earths defined, uses in modern technology
• 07:00–09:00: Historical resource wars (salt, guano, rubber, oil)
• 11:00–12:00: China’s role as the new OPEC
• 13:40–14:20: U.S. attempts to secure alternative supplies
• 15:00: American mining industry's sluggishness
• 16:00–16:10: Galloway’s closing reflections on leadership and investment

Closing Reflection

Galloway ends with a warning and a challenge, blending history, economics, and leadership:

“Rare earths aren't rare, long-term strategic investment is. And the scarcest resource in America today is leaders who will invest in a future we don't immediately profit from... Life is so rich.” – [16:00]

This episode offers a clear-eyed, historically grounded, often biting look at the intersection of economics, national security, and global politics in the age of rare earths—serving as both a caution and a call to action for U.S. policymakers and business leaders.