The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

Episode: No Mercy / No Malice: The Next Opioid Crisis
Date: November 22, 2025
Read by: George Hahn

Episode Overview

This episode, "The Next Opioid Crisis," explores the explosive growth and mainstreaming of prediction markets—platforms enabling users to wager on the outcomes of future events. Scott Galloway draws a parallel between these platforms and the broader gambling industry, warning of a looming addiction crisis, particularly among young men. Through personal stories, industry analysis, and policy critique, Galloway highlights the intersection of technology, finance, and human vulnerability, questioning the societal costs of unregulated speculative markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

What are Prediction Markets? (02:20–03:10)

• Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet on a wide range of future events, e.g., elections, award shows, infrastructure changes.
• Marketed as wisdom-of-the-crowds tools but fundamentally act as rebranded gambling.

"You can wager on Taylor Swift's wedding or Time Magazine's Person of the Year. ... Their platform is like the stock market. But instead of buying and selling companies, you're buying yes or no on whether something is going to happen." (03:00)

Boom in Volumes and Valuations (03:11–04:34)

• Massive growth: October volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket topped $2 billion for the first time, exceeding past election years.
• Enormous VC interest, with Polymarket seeking a $15 billion valuation and Kalshi attracting bids at $10 billion.
• Major players—Robinhood, Google, NYSE, FanDuel, CME, NHL—are joining or integrating prediction markets.

"Robinhood ... declaring it's the fastest growing business it has ever seen. Google struck a deal to integrate odds from Kalshi and Polymarket into its search results." (04:09)

Erosion of Regulatory Boundaries & Mainstream Adoption (04:35–06:12)

• Prediction markets bypass age restrictions; accessible to those 18+ (vs. 21+ for traditional sportsbooks).
• Legal ambiguities exploited: Kalshi targets sports under the guise of event contracts, now advised by Donald Trump Jr.
• Prediction markets fill gaps where sports gambling is banned.

"Prediction markets are available to anyone 18 and up. ... Now Trump's social media company is launching Truth Predict, allowing users to bet on events ranging from elections to inflation rate changes." (05:32)

The Human Cost: Addiction & Tragedy (06:13–07:29)

• Personal recounting of Alex Kearns, a 20-year-old Robinhood user who died by suicide after misinterpreting his trading balance.
• Warnings that these platforms exacerbate addiction, especially in young men—most at risk for substance and behavioral disorders.

"Many people seem to have forgotten about Alex Kearns. I haven't. ... He left a note for his family saying he didn't want to burden them with this debt. Then he took his own life. That should have been a wake up call. Instead, America has doubled down." (06:13)

The Opioid Parallel: Gambling as America's Next Epidemic (07:30–09:05)

• Since the 2018 Supreme Court ruling overturning the sports betting ban, US legal bets skyrocketed from $5B to $160B/year.
• Sports leagues, bolstered by gambling money, have little incentive to self-police.
• Deals include in-stadium betting shops, direct sponsorships topping $1B/year.

"America's pastime isn't baseball, but gambling. We spend 10 times more on gambling than music, Netflix and cinema combined." (07:55)

The Industry’s Defense & Societal Consequences (09:06–10:34)

• Industry claims users trade against each other—not 'the house'—but the risk and addictive mechanics remain.
• Legalization and innovation have outpaced regulation or education; societal impacts largely ignored.

"The most profitable firms in history are squatting in a building our economy that has no scaffolding on its instincts. ... Any sort of dopa regulation trails, institutional production prediction marketplaces say they aren't on the other side of the trade." (09:54)

Regulatory Solutions and Obstacles (10:35–12:25)

• Calls for tougher regulation: stricter age limits, annual loss caps, advertising restrictions, and separation of research from industry influence.
• Congressional initiatives exist but face steep odds against massive industry profits and lobbying.

"Paul Tonko and Richard Blumenthal, Democratic lawmakers, have proposed measures that would be a good start. However, it's an uphill battle." (10:57)

Societal Choices & Real Risk (12:26–13:55)

• Galloway questions cultural values: Are we fostering meaningful risk-taking—relationships, entrepreneurship—or just monetizing addiction?
• Warns of future social engineering risks, including foreign election interference via prediction platforms.

"Rather than celebrating gambling, we should embrace a different kind of risk. Asking someone out, approaching a stranger, investing in relationships with friends and potential mates. ... How do we create a societal movement to convince people to bet on each other, not platforms?" (13:20)

The Core Prediction (13:56)

• A darkly ironic close: Even calls for regulation or reform are likely to themselves become the subject of gambling—"we'll be able to bet on it."

"Will there be thoughtful regulation? I don't know, but I'm certain we'll be able to bet on it." (13:55)

Memorable Quotes

• On platform growth:

  "Weekly volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket breached the $2 billion mark for the first time in October." (03:33)

• On the shift in national pastime:

  "America's pastime isn't baseball, but gambling." (07:36)

• On the parallel to addiction:

  "Gambling has the highest suicide rate of all addictions. When you have a meth addiction, people notice the sores, tooth loss. When you're gambling ... your struggles remain hidden." (08:15)

• Personal reflection:

  "I am not immune. I find these markets fascinating. I tried to bet on the presidential race but couldn't as I'm an American citizen living in the UK. My documented worker status saved me from myself." (12:42)

• On redefining risk:

  "Rather than celebrating gambling, we should embrace a different kind of risk. ... How do we create a societal movement to convince people to bet on each other, not platforms?" (13:20)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Prediction markets: what and how? – 02:20–03:10
• Platforms’ rise, big money, and partnerships – 03:11–04:34
• Legal gray areas and political entanglements – 04:35–06:12
• Human cost—Alex Kearns story – 06:13–07:29
• Addiction and scale of US gambling – 07:30–09:05
• Industry defenses vs. societal impact – 09:06–10:34
• Regulation and political challenges – 10:35–12:25
• Rethinking risk, opportunity, and culture – 12:26–13:55
• Conclusion & meta-prediction on regulation – 13:56

Closing Tone

Scott Galloway, via George Hahn, delivers a deeply concerned, critical, and provocative narrative with flashes of dark wit. The tone is urgent and personal—equal parts analytical and confessional—cautioning against technological innovation that monetizes our vulnerabilities while calling for a cultural pivot toward “real” risk and community.

For listeners:
If you're worried about online gambling, especially for young people, or curious about the blurring lines between investing, betting, and technology, this episode is a must. Galloway challenges us to look beyond the hype, advocates for empathy and action, and closes with a call to bet on each other, not on platforms designed to profit from our weaknesses.