Loading summary
Transcript9 lines
- [00:01]
Scott Galloway
Support for the show comes from Odoo. Running a business takes everything you've got, and a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great talking to each other. And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on. Enough of that. Now there's Odoo, the all in one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free at odoo.com that's O-O-O.com foreign.
- [00:33]
Odoo Advertiser
Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, and more. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o.com
- [01:14]
MITI Health Advertiser
it's true that some things change as we get older. But if you're a woman over 40 and you're dealing with insomnia, brain fog, moodiness and weight gain, you don't have to accept it as just another part of aging. And with MITI Health, you can get help and stop pushing through it alone. The experts at MITI understand that all these symptoms can be connected to the hormonal changes that happen around menopause. And MITI can help you feel more like yourself again. Many healthcare providers aren't trained to treat or even recognize menopause symptoms. MITI clinicians are menopause experts. They're dedicated to providing safe, effective, FDA approved solutions for dozens of hormonal symptoms, not just hot flashes. Most importantly, they're covered by insurance. 91% of MITI patients get relief from symptoms within just two months. You deserve to feel great. Book your virtual visit today@joinmidi.com that's joinmidi.com
- [02:16]
Scott Galloway
I'm Scott Galloway and this is no mercy, no malice. The most transformative technology with the greatest asymmetric upside isn't ChatGPT5, but GLP1's the wait as read by George Hahn, Foreign.
- [02:44]
Scott Galloway (Main Monologue)
God I'm sick of talking about SpaceX. More impressive than the Falcon Heavy Rocket and it is impressive is Elon Inc's ability to manufacture scarcity. Getting the NASDAQ to waive requirements applied to every company until now so he can force index funds to purchase shares aims a demand cannon of $75 billion at a business with a small flo. The result is a price that in no way reflects the underlying value. But I digress. This isn't an investment but a trade. So where to invest? The technology with the greater asymmetric upside as well as the clearest path to transforming the economy and the well being of more than 200 million Americans isn't Falcon 9 boosters or GPT5, but GLP1s US obesity rates have tripled over the last 60 years. Our instincts, developed over hundreds of thousands of years when food was scarce, haven't kept pace with industrial production. So we gorge Obesity is a comorbidity for 200 plus chronic diseases, the central node in a network of poor health outcomes. The total bill for national health expenditures, including public and private spending, is $5.3 trillion. By 2033, one out of every five dollars in the economy will go to health care. This is the IED at the center of the US Economy. Five years ago, when Ozempic and Wegovy were first approved for weight loss, GLP1s looked like a silver bullet for obesity. Today, they're a fully loaded magazine of silver bullets aimed at obesity, addiction, cancer, sleep apnea, and a growing list of other diseases and chronic conditions. The velocity of innovation is remarkable. Usually when a new medicine happens, we have time to learn how to use it, Dr. Melanie J. Director of the NYU Langone Comprehensive Program on Obesity, told the New York times. But with GLP1s, everyone is kind of iterating in real time. Some recent iterations Last month, Eli Lilly announced that its Phase three trial for retatrutide, a triple agonist dubbed Godzilla that activates GLP1, GIP and glucagon receptors, appears to exceed the performance of other weight loss medications. On average, patients on Zepbound or wegovy lose between 14% and 20% of their initial body weight over 72 weeks. Patients in the retatrutide trial taking 4 milligram, 9 milligram, and 12 milligram doses lost an average of 19%, 26%, and 29% of their starting weight, respectively. But the most promising drug is Foundao, a daily pill from Eli Lilly, the FDA approved for weight loss in April. In clinical trials, it resulted in 12% weight loss over 72 weeks. Less effective than shots, but a good alternative for the 66 million Americans who are afraid of needles. The pills also show a promise as a maintenance tool. As Nicolas Florco wrote in the Atlantic, America has a new GLP1 playbook with a shot to lose weight and a pill to keep it off. In the U.S. 1 in 8 adults currently take a GLP1, with prescriptions for weight loss doubling from 2024 to 2025. It's working. A year after the drugs were approved for weight loss, the US obesity rate peaked at 40%, but it has since begun to decline. Sadly, GLP1s haven't had the same impact on their initial target, diabetes. William Gibson famously said, the future is already here. It's just not evenly distributed. He could have been describing GLP1s. A recent Cleveland Clinic study found that cost is by far the primary reason people quit, with 47% of those who discontinued the drugs citing insurance denial, expiration of a discount coupon, or unaffordable out of pocket expenses. Side effects were the second most common reason cited by 14% of respondents, while less than 2% quit due to unsatisfactory weight loss. In other words, GLP1s can change society if we distribute them to everyone who needs them, regardless of their ability to pay. The Good news? Beginning July 1st, Medicare Part D will cover certain GLP1 treatments with a $50 monthly copay for seniors. The bad news? Private insurance plans, which provide pharmaceutical benefits for two thirds of Americans, are scaling back GL GLP1 coverage, if they even offered it to begin with. According to the Wall Street Journal, 11% of employers have dropped or are planning to drop GLP1 coverage for weight loss altogether. And more than a quarter of big companies are adding hurdles such as requiring multiple weigh ins a month, meal tracking on apps, or mandatory health coaching. The US Is simultaneously hitting the gas while pumping the brakes on the best tool we have for combating obesity. With a few exceptions, the 17 companies valued at $1 trillion or more are all technology companies heavily invested on AI. The only drug maker on the list is Eli Lilly, whose shares have registered a 418% increase since GLP1s were first approved for weight in 2021. Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly's chief competitor and the maker of Ozempic and wegovy, is up just 2% over the same period. The discrepancy points to something unusual about the dynamics of GLP1 pricing. Typically, drug prices are inelastic that is, consumers aren't very responsive to price changes unless a generic option is available. But as one industry analyst explained the obesity market has turned traditional pharma economics upside down. Eli Lilly's products have a perceived efficacy edge, but the company also beat Novo Nordisk to the direct to consumer market. On my podcast, Eli Lilly Chair and CEO David Ricks told me, in the GLP1 category we observe, prices are elastic. The more we lower the price, the more users we get. That's the path we're on. GLP1s may be the rare pharmaceutical case where capitalism is on the consumer side, but Rick's also told me GLP1s are unique insofar as nearly everyone who takes them loses weight. Unlike drugs for other chronic conditions. People like being on GLP1s because they notice results in their appearance rather than intangible health benefits and side effects. The fine print Many people may Never stop taking GLP1s, creating an enduring subscription business. Think Netflix, but with monthly prices ranging from $149 to $499 and instead of market competition, a duopoly. GLP1s may not be an off ramp from the industrial food medical pharma complex, but the ultimate physiological lock in Victoria's Secret shares surged 47% last week after the company reported 15% year over year revenue growth and raised full year sales guidance to $7.1 billion. Meanwhile, fast food chains are shrinking their footprint, with Jack in the Box, Pizza Hut and Wendy's among the brands closing hundreds of stores nationwide. That's yet another bad sign for an industry that's registered more than 500 franchisee bankruptcies this year. US alcohol sales are also down, with Diageo and Pernod Ricard reporting a 15% decline year over year, while Constellation Brands saw a 10% drop. CEOs have blamed tariffs, affordability and, in the case of alcohol, gen Z. But GLP1s are a more likely explanation for the shift in consumer behavior. More signals the share of apparel exchanges where shoppers size down has risen for three consecutive years, hitting a 14% high of among online retailers, adults who use GLP1s consume 21% fewer calories and spend nearly a third less on groceries on average. Meanwhile, 59% of Americans say they'd be more likely to visit restaurants that serve flexible, customizable or innovative portion size options, and that goes up to 73% among GLP1 users. The same report noted that 13% of restaurant operators have listed items that appeal to GLP1 users higher protein and or fiber, and 42% say they're considering such additions. There will be downstream effects. A significant decline in fast food revenue will accelerate closures across the industry's 200,000 plus U.S. locations, destabilizing commercial real estate markets and threatening the livelihoods of of the 4 million people who work in the sector. Apparel brands that built supply chains around stable sizes and predictable returns will have to adjust to hit a moving target. America's shrinking waistline the AI narrative has turned negative. Energy costs are up, jobs are supposedly going away, relationships are going virtual. And if the technology advances as promised and it presents a threat to humanity, the GLP1 story offers something Silicon Valley used to produce in abundance a hopeful vision of the future. Every American knows people who struggle with their weight. We all know someone who has a chance to live longer, do more, and feel better about themselves because of GLP1s. A nation's greatness isn't measured in GDP, but in the quality of life its citizens enjoy. For the first time in decades, American innovation is adding years to lives, not just zeros to valuations. The question isn't whether GLP1s will change the US they already have. The question is whether we'll be stupid enough to ration the change.
- [15:28]
Scott Galloway
Life is so rich.
- [15:42]
Cotton Advertiser / The Guardian Advertiser
Support for the show comes from cotton, the fabric of our lives. Once you look for it, it's everywhere. Just take a peek in your closet. Your favorite sundress, your comfiest concert tee, your most breathable bed sheets, all of your staples, and a whole lot more are made from cotton. It's the comfortable, breathable and durable material that only gets better with every wash. So next time you shop, check the tags for cotton. It's the fabric of our lives.
- [16:13]
Canva Advertiser
When you finally find your thing, you want the whole world to know about that thing. So you use a thing called Canva to make it an even bigger and better thing. Whether you want to create flyers for that thing, make presentations for that thing, or design merch for that thing, you can do anything so people can see your thing, feel your thing, love your thing. The next thing you know, it's a thing. Canva. The thing that makes anything a thing.
- [16:44]
Cotton Advertiser / The Guardian Advertiser
Trying to locate news sources that reliably separate fact from fiction can seem like looking for a needle in a haystack. That's why the Guardian is launching Stateside with Kai Wright and Carter Sherman, a conversation with experts who slow down the news and wrestle with the questions we all have about what's actually happening in the world. Three times a week, hosts Kai and Carter utilize all the reporting resources the Guardian has to discuss the news, international affairs, climate, culture, sports, lifestyle, fashion and wellness and the Guardian is not billionaire owned, meaning they're free to report the whole picture without interference. Go to theguardian.com stateside to learn more and listen. Wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube, that's theguardian.com stateside.