Prof G Markets: Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?

Summary

Episode Summary: Prof G Markets: Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?

Release Date: May 12, 2025
Podcast: The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Host: Vox Media Podcast Network
Episode Focus: An in-depth analysis of Google's stock valuation amidst emerging AI competition and Uber's recent earnings performance in the context of potential economic downturns.

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1. UK-US Trade Deal Framework

Discussion Overview:
Scott Galloway and co-hosts delve into President Trump's recently announced framework for a trade deal with the UK. The proposal aims to reduce tariffs on British goods while maintaining a broader 10% tariff on imports from other nations. However, the deal remains largely unfinalized, with significant disagreements on several key points.

Key Points:

• Tariff Reductions: Intent to lower auto tariffs from 25% to 10%, aligning with existing tariffs on other countries.
• Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: The UK expected the US to eliminate these tariffs, but the US opted for an alternative arrangement instead.
• Social Media Taxes: Uncertainties remain regarding the UK's proposed taxes on social media companies.
• Beef Trade: Discussions about expanding access to beef and establishing reciprocal trade agreements.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [04:12]: “From everything I can understand about this quote-unquote trade deal, this agreement, nothing's really been determined.”
• Ed [07:22]: “The UK is going to have to drop the tariffs on digital services.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [06:50] Initial announcement and enthusiasm surrounding the trade deal.
• [07:22] Breakdown of the specific tariff changes and ongoing disagreements.
• [11:41] Analysis of Trump’s focus on appearances over substantive policy outcomes.

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2. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision

Discussion Overview:
The panel discusses the Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep interest rates steady amidst economic uncertainties exacerbated by rising tariffs. Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution, indicating a "wait and see" approach to assess the actual impact of these tariffs on inflation and unemployment.

Key Points:

• Rate Stability: Interest rates held steady, with Powell resisting pressure to cut rates despite Trump's demands.
• Market Expectations: Predictions of a possible rate cut have been slightly adjusted downward from an 80% to a 70% probability for July.
• Economic Concerns: Focus on potential stagflation—high inflation coupled with stagnant economic growth.
• Future Projections: Anticipation that any rate cuts might be postponed until September, contingent on forthcoming GDP reports.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [12:22]: “Jerome Powell is extremely cautious. He wants to see the actual impact of these tariffs.”
• Bill Gates [14:24]: “The biggest fear is that we continue to see inflation and the economy slows. That's called stagflation.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [12:22] Powell's cautious stance and emphasis on data-driven decisions.
• [14:24] Concerns about stagflation and its historical implications.

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3. Melania Coin: A Case of Insider Trading and Market Grift

Discussion Overview:
The hosts expose the fraudulent exploitation surrounding Melania Coin, a meme cryptocurrency associated with Melania Trump. Using analysis from the Financial Times, they highlight how insiders made nearly $100 million through predatory trading practices before the coin's public launch.

Key Points:

• Insider Exploitation: 24 anonymous accounts purchased Melania Coin before its official announcement, leveraging insider knowledge.
• Profitable Trades: One wallet acquired $681,000 worth of Melania Coin just 64 seconds before the project was revealed, subsequently selling with significant profits.
• Market Impact: Approximately 800,000 investors lost billions as the coin plummeted by 96% post-launch.
• Regulatory Gap: The lack of proper cryptocurrency regulation allows such schemes to flourish, with current laws failing to categorize meme coins under securities.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [16:32]: “We've been saying from the very beginning, since the beginning of Trump Coin, Melania Coin, how awful this is.”
• Bill Gates [17:48]: “There are never been a president or prime minister who's been able to aggregate a billion dollars a month in these types of gains.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [15:30] Detailed breakdown of Melania Coin transactions and profits.
• [19:36] Ed and Bill Gates discuss the systemic nature of the grift and its broader economic implications.

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4. The Crypto Conundrum: Insider Trading and Regulatory Failures

Discussion Overview:
The conversation shifts to the broader issues of insider trading within the crypto industry, emphasizing the absence of stringent regulations that enable such fraudulent activities. The hosts advocate for new legislation to address the gaps and hold perpetrators accountable.

Key Points:

• Insider Trading Risks: Proximity to power allows a select few to exploit market movements, undermining the integrity of financial markets.
• Regulatory Inaction: The SEC's current inability to regulate meme coins and similar crypto assets leaves room for continued fraud.
• Proposed Solutions: Introduction of new legal categories for meme coins and stringent enforcement to curb insider trading.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [24:24]: “We need to actually take action. We can talk about how it's a big grift, but how are we actually going to address this?”
• Bill Gates [19:53]: “The rivers of capital into the US have reversed flow. EU index funds have had their greatest inflows in the last 30 years.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [19:01] Discussion on the need for SEC regulation and potential legislative reforms.
• [20:00] Ed elaborates on the economic consequences of unchecked insider trading in crypto.

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5. Google's Stock Dip Amid AI Search Engine Threats

Discussion Overview:
A significant portion of the episode analyzes Google's recent 9% stock decline triggered by Apple SVP Eddy Cue's testimony during the DOJ's antitrust case. Cue revealed potential integration of AI-powered search engines like Perplexity into Safari, signaling a shift away from Google as the default search provider.

Key Points:

• Eddy Cue's Testimony: Indicated a decline in Google search volume on Safari, suggesting a pivot to AI-based search tools.
• Market Reaction: Google's market value shrank by approximately $250 billion in response to Cue's statements.
• Valuation Analysis: Scott conducts a sum-of-the-parts valuation, arguing that Google's core businesses are undervalued and that the market's pessimism is overblown.
• Investment Thesis: Despite the stock drop, Google remains a robust investment opportunity due to its diverse revenue streams and strong AI investments.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [32:26]: “The market's gotten a little too carried away with this whole AI is replacing Google thesis.”
• Bill Gates [33:07]: “The carcass is bleeding but this is going to be a big carcass for a long, long time.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [27:20] Explanation of Eddy Cue's impact on Google's search dominance.
• [33:07] Ed reflects on Google's valuation and investment potential.
• [37:19] Bill Gates shares insights from his activist investor experience related to sum-of-the-parts valuation.

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6. Uber's Q1 Earnings: Profitability and Autonomous Vehicle Ambitions

Discussion Overview:
The panel reviews Uber's first-quarter earnings, noting a slight miss in revenue but a significant beat in earnings per share (EPS). The conversation highlights Uber's strides toward profitability and its strategic partnership with Waymo for autonomous vehicles.

Key Points:

• Earnings Performance: Uber achieved $0.83 EPS against the expected $0.50, demonstrating strong profitability measures.
• Revenue Insights: Although revenue slightly missed forecasts, it increased by 14% year-over-year, indicating healthy growth.
• Cost Reduction: Significant decreases in operational costs contributing to improved EBITDA by 35%.
• Autonomous Vehicles: Partnership with Waymo introduces 100 autonomous vehicles in Austin, touted as a major growth opportunity.
• Market Perception: Despite strong earnings, Uber’s stock dipped over 2% due to mixed signals on revenue and future expectations.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [43:59]: “I think what I'm learning about Uber is, yes, still a growth company, yes, still a tech company, but now it has the scale and it feels like the model actually makes sense.”
• Bill Gates [46:27]: “Dara is one of the amazing CEOs... Uber's just sort of running away with it.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [30:01] Initial reaction to Uber's earnings report and stock movement.
• [37:19] Discussion on Uber’s management and strategic direction.
• [53:58] Analysis of Uber's long-term autonomous vehicle strategy and potential risks.

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7. Upcoming Week's Market Highlights

Discussion Overview:
Towards the end of the episode, the hosts preview key events and earnings reports to watch in the coming week, including notable companies like Walmart, Toyota, and Alibaba. They also mention the release of the consumer and producer price indices for April.

Key Points:

• Alibaba's Performance: Anticipation of strong growth in Alibaba's cloud unit, potentially boosting its stock.
• Consumer Sentiment: Changes in global perceptions of China influencing Alibaba's business prospects.
• Other Earnings Reports: Expectations from major players like Walmart and Toyota.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Galloway [56:07]: “This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer... Thanks for listening.”

Timestamp Highlights:

• [56:07] Preview of next week's earnings and economic indicators.
• [57:16] Ed's presentation on Alibaba's market position and expected performance.

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Conclusion

In this episode of Prof G Markets, Scott Galloway and his co-hosts provide a comprehensive analysis of critical financial and economic developments. From dissecting the intricacies of international trade agreements and central bank policies to exposing fraudulent cryptocurrency schemes, the discussion is both insightful and actionable. The deep dive into Google's undervalued stock amidst AI competition and Uber's path to sustained profitability offers valuable perspectives for investors navigating a complex market landscape.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade Deals and Tariffs: Understanding the nuanced outcomes of international trade negotiations is crucial for anticipating market shifts.
• Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's cautious approach underscores the delicate balance between controlling inflation and fostering economic growth.
• Crypto Regulation: The urgent need for comprehensive legislation to curb insider trading and protect investors in the burgeoning crypto market.
• Stock Valuation: Recognizing undervalued assets like Google can present lucrative investment opportunities despite short-term market pessimism.
• Corporate Profitability: Uber's successful transition to profitability and strategic investments in autonomous vehicles exemplify effective corporate management and innovation.

For listeners seeking to stay informed and make strategic investment decisions, this episode offers a wealth of knowledge and expert analysis.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Scott Galloway [04:12]: “From everything I can understand about this quote-unquote trade deal, this agreement, nothing's really been determined.”
• Bill Gates [14:24]: “The biggest fear is that we continue to see inflation and the economy slows. That's called stagflation.”
• Scott Galloway [16:32]: “We've been saying from the very beginning, since the beginning of Trump Coin, Melania Coin, how awful this is.”
• Ed [07:22]: “The UK is going to have to drop the tariffs on digital services.”
• Scott Galloway [32:26]: “The market's gotten a little too carried away with this whole AI is replacing Google thesis.”
• Scott Galloway [43:59]: “I think what I'm learning about Uber is, yes, still a growth company, yes, still a tech company, but now it has the scale and it feels like the model actually makes sense.”

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For more insights and detailed discussions, tune into "Prof G Markets" on your preferred podcast platform and stay ahead of the financial curve.

Transcript

[Scott Galloway]

Support for the show comes from Mercury, the fintech that more than 200,000 entrepreneurs use to simplify their finances. When banking can do more, your business can do more. With Mercury. You can watch your revenue climb with every invoice you send. You can stay current with contractors with.

[Ed]

Built in bill pay.

[Scott Galloway]

You can unlock the credit you need to scale faster. Check it out for [e-mail] Mercury banking that does more. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group Column N A and Evolve bank and Trust Members F.D. the IO card is issued by Patriot bank member FDIC pursuant to a license from MasterCard.

[McDonald's]

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[Prof. G]

Hey Prof. G listeners, it's Ed. If you're hearing this message, it's because you're still listening on the Prof. G Pod feed, which means you are missing half of our episod, which are on the Prof. G Markets feed. So for all of the content, head over to the Prof. G Markets podcast and hit follow. We've also left a link in the description to make it easier. You'll see it's a different logo. Profg Pod is turquoise with Scott's face. Profgy Markets is green with me and Scott's face. Thank you and I'll see you over on the other feed.

[Bill Gates]

Today's number $200 billion. That's how much Bill Gates plans to give away to philanthropies over the next 20 years.

[Ed]

True story, Ed.

[Bill Gates]

All of Bill Gates nannies supposedly quit and went to work for Ste. Jobs. And he was reported to say fucking jobs coming for our immigrants.

[Ed]

Get it?

[Bill Gates]

Little turn of phrase there, Little twist of phrase.

[Ed]

Little. Little semantic humor there.

[Bill Gates]

How are you, Ed?

[Prof. G]

I'm doing pretty well. Did you come up with that joke? Did you find that joke?

[Bill Gates]

Nothing I do is original, Ed.

[Prof. G]

Really? Okay. It's an interesting joke to be floating out there in the ether. Very specific to our business.

[Ed]

Yeah.

[Bill Gates]

Nothing I do is original. Greatness is in the agency of others. I'm like.

[Prof. G]

I agree with that.

[Ed]

I'm like a less wealthy form of China.

[Bill Gates]

I steal a lot of IP and I repackage it as my own, and then I export it back to other people via this podcast.

[Prof. G]

Exactly. It's a winning strategy.

[Bill Gates]

There you go.

[Prof. G]

You're back in New York, right?

[Ed]

I am. It's such a beautiful day here.

[Prof. G]

It's great. It got nice just in time for you. You're very lucky.

[Ed]

God, it's gorgeous.

[Bill Gates]

Yeah, no, it's.

[Ed]

It's nice.

[Bill Gates]

I went to Shea Margaux last night to see Black Coffee. And of course I went home before he came out. I'm like, did you?

[Prof. G]

How was that?

[Bill Gates]

I was furious. I've turned into that guy. I'm like, when's he coming out? I pay all this money for a table and they're like, he comes out at midnight. I'm like, what? I, like, made reservations at like 6pm for dinner.

[Prof. G]

But did you stick around to see him?

[Ed]

I stuck around for like 10 minutes.

[Bill Gates]

I was whacked.

[Prof. G]

Do you like that kind of music? That's. That's the kind of music I listen to.

[Ed]

Oh, yeah.

[Bill Gates]

I should have taken you, but I don't want to spend any time with you. But. But the thought is there. The thought is there.

[Prof. G]

It's the thought that counts.

[Bill Gates]

God, this is a Deuces conversation. Anyways, anyways, I'm going to see Calvin Harris and I've seen Kygo and all these, like, kind of. I know everyone in the dj, er community is, like, so disgusted with me because I like the equivalent of Britney Spears of DJs. I like the big popular ones.

[Prof. G]

Yeah.

[Bill Gates]

Who are the DJs you listen to?

[Prof. G]

I'm a big Black Coffee fan. You were a fan of Rufus De Soul for a while. I'm a huge. That's sort of like the other Britney Spears figure in. In DJ World, but I'm a huge Rufus De Soul fan as well.

[Bill Gates]

I used to listen to Rufus De Soul every night. And then I realized I was getting more and more depressed and I wonder if it was Rufus de Souhol. And I stopped listening to it.

[Prof. G]

It's, like, too emotional for you.

[Ed]

It's just too, like, duh.

[Prof. G]

It's pretty intense.

[Bill Gates]

Yeah, it's very like, oh, we're in a dystopia. Maybe you should kill yourself. It's a dystopia. I'm not sure it's pretty, it's pretty rough, but I actually saw Rufus De Soul at the Miami Electra festival.

[Ed]

And all I could think about when.

[Bill Gates]

I was there, I thought, I am getting too old for music festivals.

[Ed]

Because all I could think about is where's the nearest fire safety route?

[Bill Gates]

You know, that's what running through my head. I couldn't enjoy it. Anyways, enough of that shit. Get to the headlines, Ed.

[Prof. G]

Let's start with our weekly review of market vitals. The S&P 500 rose, the dollar climbed, Bitcoin breached 100,000 for the first time since February. And the yield on 10 year treasuries was relatively stable. Shifting to the headlines, President Trump announced a framework for a trade deal with the UK that will lower tariffs on British cause while maintaining the broader 10% tariff on imports. The two countries have not finalized a deal, but will supposedly work to do so in the coming weeks. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, but cautioned that rising tariffs could fuel both higher inflation and increased unemployment. Jerome Powell said he won't rush to cut rates without greater clarity on trade policy. Nonetheless, all three major indices closed higher on that news. And finally, a handful of traders made nearly $100 million buying Melania Trump's meme coin, Melania coin just before its launch. They then quickly offloaded their positions with 81% of their sales occurring within the first 12 hours. Okay, well, we'll start with this UK trade deal that Trump announced. It was kind of a lot of pomp and circumstance around this. And then the trade deal came out and they had this press conference that Keir Starmer was featured on. And my sense is they haven't really ironed anything out. I mean, from what I understand, from what I gather, we're going to reduce the auto tariffs on the UK from 25% to 10%. The standard 10% tariff that we have, and all these other nations that's going to remain in place. But there are a lot of things that actually there was just disagreement on. I mean, for example, the uk they thought that the US Was gonna drop these steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. And then the US came out and said, no, we're negotiating an alternative arrangement. There was also confusion over this tax that the UK charges on social media companies and whether that was gonna go away or not. And that's not ironed out either. There's also talk about expanding access to beef and having this reciprocal trade agreement on beef. All of these details that I was trying to just understand and be like, okay, what is the deal? What is the UK getting and what is America getting? I couldn't really glean much. And maybe that'll change over the next few days. Maybe they'll actually iron something out. But from everything I can understand about this quote unquote trade deal, this agreement, nothing's really been determined.

[Bill Gates]

Yeah, I was confused by this at first. I thought, okay, their big win is they're going to get them to drop the tariffs.

[Ed]

The UK is going to have to drop the tariffs on digital services.

[Bill Gates]

And so again, the biggest corporations with lobbyists, and you give a million dollars to Trump, get their tariffs dropped, but small businesses don't, as far as I can tell, and we've had this thesis for a long time that the net.

[Ed]

Net of all of this shit is almost zero.

[Bill Gates]

Okay, so they're going to drop tariffs.

[Ed]

On this, but increase here.

[Bill Gates]

I think this guy is looking for any reason to claim victory. And we're going to end up in.

[Ed]

The same, or maybe even worse, because.

[Bill Gates]

The people negotiating these, based on what I understand or what I've seen at.

[Ed]

The administration, is that they're fucking idiots. We don't have our best and brightest doing this shit.

[Bill Gates]

You know the analogy I use? I don't know if you saw me. I was on Anderson Cooper last night on cnn.

[Prof. G]

I did. I saw your segment and I was.

[Bill Gates]

So bummed out because the only, like, one talking point I wanted to get out, I wasn't able to get out. And it's the following.

[Ed]

I don't mind a certain amount of.

[Bill Gates]

Corruption in our government.

[Ed]

I think sometimes civil disobedience and corruption.

[Bill Gates]

Can actually be leadership.

[Ed]

What do I mean by that?

[Bill Gates]

FDR sent munitions and armaments to Europe without congressional approval. He violated the Constitution. I thought it was real leadership. At the end of the day, I thought he saw it as such an existential threat. He thought, you know, fuck it, I'm going to. I'm going to. I'm going to do this behind the backs of Congress. You know, as long as you're right. The thing I find most disappointing about what is this ridiculous tariffing and the corruption here is that we essentially have a mob boss, we have a mob family running the government right now. Okay, that's bad. What's worse is that Michael Corleone is running the grift and Fredo is running the government. And that is, I wish they brought the same expertise and elegance and timing.

[Ed]

To government and tariffs as they're bringing to their grift.

[Bill Gates]

And so every time we talk about their Grift.

[Ed]

I'm sort of impressed with how elegant and strategic it is.

[Bill Gates]

And then I look at this and I'm like, what is this? Peter Navarro and his, you know, drunk advising them on, oh, okay, we ended.

[Ed]

Now we're lowering the tariffs on autos.

[Bill Gates]

Now, or so we can increase it over here, and somehow that's going to bring back our manufacturing jobs. So what is this?

[Ed]

A whole lot of fucking nothing.

[Bill Gates]

That's what this is.

[Ed]

Your thoughts?

[Prof. G]

It almost seems like the art of the deal here. I mean, I keep on asking the question, like, what is the deal? What are we getting in return? We've gone through all of this ridiculous pain and confusion putting these tariffs up, and I keep on trying to figure out, okay, when do we win? What is the win for America? And I was unable to find a win in the terms of the deal itself. I mean, this expanded access on beef, which is not even ironed out, it's not clear what the win is there. There was talk about the UK is going to buy $10 billion worth of Boeing planes, which you'd think, oh, maybe that's a good thing. But then you realize, actually, this is nothing new. The UK has been one of Boeing's largest European customers for years now. So nothing's changed there. Then there's the potential reduction of that 2% tax on the big tech companies. You know, it's a win for big tech if that goes through. Apparently it's not going through, but then you think, okay, well, how is that going to benefit the American people? It won't. And I'm starting to think that the only win, the thing that Trump really wants, like the outcome of the art of the Deal, it's ultimately just a press release. Like, he starts all this chaos, he does all this stuff, and, I mean, we're seeing it with this UK trade agreement here. They haven't even reached a deal. What he mostly wants, though, is to go out to the public and say, hey, look, we have this big, beautiful deal. What's the deal? Oh, don't worry about it. But all you need to know is it's big and beautiful. And he did the same thing with the stock market, where he tanked the stock market after Liberation Day. And then a few days later, when he pulled the tariffs back and the stock market ripped, he said, look out of the deal. Look, it's a fantastic day. One of the best days in the history of the stock market. So I'm starting to think that all he really wants is a symbolic and visual win in the form of a press release.

[Bill Gates]

Trump is all about appearances, full stop. And I think the best thing that could happen for our military is if.

[Ed]

Pete Hegseth started going Bald and gained 30 pounds. Because I think the only reason he's.

[Bill Gates]

Still in a job is because he's handsome. And seriously, I think.

[Prof. G]

I know, I agree. By the way, Scaramucci told me the same thing.

[Ed]

I think Trump likes the idea of.

[Bill Gates]

This, like, big, handsome guy running the Defense Department. And the guy that took the fall was not as attractive as Hagseth. So this guy is all about appearances. He's not about competence. How do I get a press release? How do I look good? Where is it time for my spray tan? I mean, it just. Again, anyway, fuck. Let's go on to the next story.

[Prof. G]

Yeah, let's talk about this Fed decision. Jerome Powell's keeping interest rates steady. Just the backdrop and the context here. Trump has been calling for Powell to cut rates. He obviously threatened to fire him, and then he walked that back. But then on Sunday, before the interest rate decision, which came out on Wednesday, on Sunday, Trump said, quote, we have a stubborn Fed. He should lower them. He being Powell and them being interest rates, what do you know? He didn't lower them. Jerome Powell also highlighted his concerns about what these tariffs will do to economic growth and more specifically, what it will do to inflation, which is obviously the thing he's trying to get under control. I think probably the most interesting to me, though, was that the expectations for a rate cut, which most traders believe will happen in July, that actually came down a little bit. There was an 80% probability of a rate cut coming in July, and that came down to 70%. So the net net is there is less of an expectation that we will get rate cuts soon in the summer, but it's still sort of a high probability. They think 70%. That's what the markets believe. I'm going to take the other side of this. The vibe I got here was that Powell is extremely cautious. He said the words wait and see 11 times in the press conference. And I think what he's doing is he's clearly waiting to get the data. He wants to see what is the actual impact of these tariffs. And we haven't seen that yet. So my prediction after this press conference, I think we're not going to see a rate cut until September because I think Jerome Powell is waiting for more data. Specifically, I think he wants to see the Q2 GDP report, and that's not going to come out until the end of July. And my view is only then will he decide that he has enough data to actually make a decision, which would mean that the next time that he could potentially cut rates, if that's all true, would be September, could be possibly even later. But my prediction, this isn't going to happen. We're not going to get any cuts until September at least.

[Bill Gates]

The biggest fear, right, is that we continue to see inflation and the economy slows. That's called stagflation.

[Ed]

It hasn't happened since the 70s.

[Bill Gates]

That is the scariest thing for a Fed chair. And if that happens, they will raise interest dramatically, as they had to do.

[Ed]

In the 70s, and they will throw.

[Bill Gates]

Jobs to the wolves, to the fire. And they will create huge unemployment to tame inflation, because unemployment creates a change in governments.

[Ed]

Inflation can start wars.

[Bill Gates]

Inflation can literally create chaos if it spins out of control and people think, well, I need to buy lunch right now or buy bread right now because it's going to be 10% more expensive next week.

[Ed]

You lose control of it because no.

[Bill Gates]

One wants to hold on to money, and you just have too much money chasing goods and it can crash an economy. So when he sees, okay, maybe the economy's slowing down, it doesn't appear to be. So we're not going to cut interest rates and inflation based on what this guy's going to do or not do. I can't predict his blood sugar level, but in case there is inflation, no, we're not bringing interest rates down.

[Prof. G]

Let's talk about Melania Coin. So the Financial Times did this great analysis. I'm so glad that journalistic institutions are doing this because it's so important. 24 anonymous accounts purchased Melania Coin before Melania Coin was announced. And per this analysis from the FT, those guys made $100 million. There was one wallet that bought $681,000 worth of Melania coin 64 seconds before the project was announced. And within 24 hours, that account had made $39 million selling those coins. It then made another four and a half million selling the rest of the coins over the next three days. Just unbelievable. Historic levels of grift. We've been saying from the very beginning, since the beginning of Trump Coin, Amalani Coin, how awful this is. We're now seeing the data coming in and showing us numerically what's so bad about this. Scott, what more is there to even say about Melania Coin or Trump Coin?

[Bill Gates]

We are in the midst of the.

[Ed]

Greatest grift in history in terms of.

[Bill Gates]

Size and the amount of money that's being grifted. This is a family that has increased.

[Ed]

Their net worth a billion dollars a month since they became president. And the pattern across all of these.

[Bill Gates]

Coins, whether it's the Trump coin or the Melania coin or the New World Financial Liberty Coin token, I think, is simple.

[Ed]

A small group of insiders get word of him either announcing a dinner or announcing the coin.

[Bill Gates]

They pile in with big trades and then they dump. And then a bunch of retail investors who think, who are maybe fans of the Trump administration come in and they get smoked.

[Ed]

There was someone who made a shit.

[Bill Gates]

Ton of money, as you highlighted on.

[Ed]

The Melania Con, and since then, it's lost 96% of its value.

[Bill Gates]

I remember reading that 33 people at.

[Ed]

The very beginning of the Trump coin that was launched the Friday before inauguration.

[Bill Gates]

Under the COVID of dark, because there.

[Ed]

Was so much news and so much.

[Bill Gates]

Noise, 33 of them made several hundred million dollars. And by the way, three quarters of.

[Ed]

Those wallets are international wallets.

[Bill Gates]

And then I think something like 800,000.

[Ed]

People, as you and Mia pointed out.

[Bill Gates]

Have gone on to lose.

[Ed]

Gone on to lose billions.

[Prof. G]

2 billion.

[Ed]

A kleptocracy is a small number of.

[Bill Gates]

People with proximity to power oligarchs who.

[Ed]

Get inside information and advantage. This is making Putin blush.

[Bill Gates]

There has never been a president or.

[Ed]

Prime minister who's been able to aggregate.

[Bill Gates]

A billion dollars a month in these types of gains. And then people say, well, he hasn't sold any coins yet.

[Ed]

They've made $300 million just in fees, because they take fees in terms of trading.

[Prof. G]

Also, we don't even know. I mean, there are so many accounts, like, all these accounts are anonymous, so we don't really know if they haven't sold.

[Ed]

I just want to end with solutions.

[Bill Gates]

Because I'm sick of crying into TikTok.

[Ed]

Or threads or whatever.

[Bill Gates]

I believe that the Democrats need to draft legislation, propose it.

[Ed]

It will not pass. That says anyone participating in this grift, these people at World Trade Liberty Financial.

[Bill Gates]

Or whoever it is, be clear, he.

[Ed]

Might pardon himself and his kids.

[Bill Gates]

But if you don't get a presidential pardon and you took place in anything.

[Ed]

Ranging from ICE raids that illegally incarcerated.

[Bill Gates]

U.S. citizens to engaging in a grift.

[Ed]

The statute of limitations is more than three years and nine months.

[Bill Gates]

We're coming for your ass.

[Ed]

As opposed to all of us just.

[Bill Gates]

Saying, wow, it's the biggest grift in history. I know we're going to be right. I'm fairly confident we're going to be right. And then they sail off into the sunset okay, the President's probably going to get off here.

[Ed]

He'll pardon himself.

[Bill Gates]

He doesn't care.

[Ed]

Fine. But I would start sending a chill.

[Bill Gates]

Down the spine of all the people.

[Ed]

Who are enabling this, including his advisors.

[Bill Gates]

Including members of Congress, that if you.

[Ed]

Are engaged in this grift, and this is a grift.

[Bill Gates]

Let me back up the definition of insider trading, or really what insider trading.

[Ed]

Is, is it's asymmetry of information. And the reason why we have those.

[Bill Gates]

Laws is that if just a small.

[Ed]

Group of insiders are making money at.

[Bill Gates]

The expense of everyone else, then everyone.

[Ed]

Else stops investing in the markets. They stop buying stock, they stop investing in bonds, and corporate America no longer.

[Bill Gates]

Has access to cheap capital. And the people who own those shares.

[Ed]

Don'T get as wealthy because people stop trusting the markets.

[Bill Gates]

What we see everywhere here is asymmetry.

[Ed]

Of information where people close to the President have an unfair trading advantage. And it comes at the cost of people that don't have inside information, that.

[Bill Gates]

Don'T have proximity to the President. And what this means is that people.

[Ed]

Are less inclined to invest in US Markets. We've already seen this.

[Bill Gates]

The rivers of capital into the US.

[Ed]

Both human and financial, have reverse flow. As you've pointed out, EU index funds.

[Bill Gates]

Have had their greatest inflows in the last 30 years.

[Ed]

Why?

[Bill Gates]

Because they're flowing out of the U.S. german, the buns.

[Ed]

The German bonds are decreasing in cost. Germans can now borrow money to lower.

[Bill Gates]

Interest rate because people don't think their.

[Ed]

Government is fucking corrupt.

[Bill Gates]

And ours are teetering or consistently feel.

[Ed]

Like pressure that they're going up. Which means our student loans, our mortgages, our auto loans are going to get more expensive, but a small number of.

[Bill Gates]

People are gonna get really fucking rich. Senator Warren summarized it perfectly, and this is how you push back on this type of kleptocracy. She said, they're getting richer and you're losing your healthcare. Us talking about 75% of these wallets being in international, you know, domains. People don't get it and they don't care. But when you start saying, okay, folks, you're about to lose your healthcare, but these people are getting really, really fucking.

[Ed]

Rich, or the stock market is going.

[Bill Gates]

Down and the only people making money are the ones that get to pay a million and a half bucks and come and say, oh, by the way.

[Ed]

We'Re about to announce tomorrow a new dinner for the coin or something like.

[Bill Gates]

That, people start to connect the dots. And I hope that's going to start to happen, because I do think it's coming out, and people are starting to wrap their head around the fact that.

[Ed]

This is the biggest grift in history.

[Bill Gates]

It hurts them.

[Ed]

They will end up paying more for their mortgage.

[Bill Gates]

Their stocks will go down.

[Prof. G]

The thing that infuriates me, I totally agree. We need to actually take action. Like, we can talk about how it's a big grift, but how are we actually going to address this? Like, how do we. How will we see justice for what is. Clearly, you just look at it. It's like criminal behavior thing. It really frustrates me. This is all in the domain of the SEC. It's the SEC's job to regulate insider trading and to prosecute it. And the trouble is, everything he's doing because of the fact that we have not established any proper regulation on crypto, so far, it's legal, and that's why they're doing it. And this is why I've always called the crypto industry legal crime. This is criminal behavior. However, our legislation, as of now, we don't have words to describe it. So it exists outside of the domain of the law. And, you know, the justification for why people will say, oh, this is legal, or the legal justification is these aren't securities, these are memes. So, you know, it falls outside of the purview of the sec, because the SEC is supposed to be regulating securities. And my response is like, okay, it's not a security. It doesn't pass the Howey test because it's not actually buying into a business. It's a meme. It's like Beanie Babies, whatever. I don't really fucking care. All I know is that people's money is being stolen through this financial grift. So do whatever you have to do. Why not just create a new bucket? Create a new legal bucket, call it meme coins and say, you're not allowed to do this. You're not allowed to inside a trade on these. On these meme coins. But the trouble is, we're not going to see any of that. We barely saw it with Gary Gensler's sec, where I actually think he didn't go hard enough on crypto. He just sort of sat there. And then everyone said, oh, Gary Gensler's against the crypto industry because there's no regulatory. It's all regulatory uncertainty. But if he were to get real with it, he'd say, this shit is fucking illegal. The trouble is, the new head of the sec, Paul Atkins, he's an outwardly pro crypto guy. He founded a crypto Advisory firm. He was the chair of this crypto advocacy group under the Chamber of Digital Commerce. Like, he was literally hired to let all of this happen. That was the whole point of his appointment. So I wish we could get our act together, but I gotta say, the way things are trending and when you look at who's in charge of the SEC and their total lack of action so far, I mean, this guy should be speaking out. He should be up in arms about this. If he cared about regulating, if he was a proper SEC chairman, he'd be all over the news talking about how terrible this is. But he isn't, because his job is to not talk about it.

[Bill Gates]

The Department of Justice was freaked out enough to assemble a group of people, and they were gonna work in conjunction with the SEC that pursued criminal fraud.

[Ed]

Specific to the crypto industry.

[Bill Gates]

They had a division, and on April.

[Ed]

8, the Trump administration disbanded that division.

[Bill Gates]

They said, we'd just rather not have people poking around and looking for evidence.

[Ed]

Of fraud in the crypto market, given.

[Bill Gates]

That we have just launched two coins.

[Prof. G]

Yeah, Pro business. Let people grift each other. Yeah.

[Bill Gates]

And the latest grift, I mean, speaking of what's for sale, there's now the World Liberty Financial Token that Eric and Don are taking over or involved in. Justin Su, who is being pursued for.

[Ed]

Criminal fraud by either the DOJ or.

[Bill Gates]

The SEC, invested 75 million in world Liberty Financial Token, and guess what happened?

[Ed]

He was pardoned.

[Prof. G]

And I'd like to see some people confront him on it. I mean, the lack of confrontation on Trump on this issue specifically, which, as I've said, is completely inexcusable. You can't steel, man, it. No one's asking him questions. Like, I've seen maybe one reporter when Trump coin was announced who asked him a little bit about it, like, what is it? And he basically said, oh, I don't really know. Like, he just didn't really have a response, like, oh, I launched it. I think it went well, right? I think it went well. Yeah. I don't really know what's going on with that. Like, why aren't people fucking confronting this guy?

[Bill Gates]

Yeah. My favorite was, do you have a responsibility to uphold the Constitution? I don't know. I need to check with my lawyers.

[Prof. G]

Yeah, right.

[Bill Gates]

I'm not sure.

[Prof. G]

It's unbelievable. I'm so done with the crypto industry. And I'm also so done with the argument where they say, well, this isn't the real crypto industry. Actually, it is the real crypto industry. If you look at the Crypto industry. This is where all the action is taking place. It's happening in the meme coins, it's happening in the Trump coin. It's the dinners at the White House, it's the VIP tours of the capital. Like, this is the crypto industry. So enough with this argument where you say, oh, this isn't really us, it is you. And you're the same guys who donated to this guy to make sure that these guys wouldn't be regulated. It's 100% the crypto industry. Maybe we'll make some concessions for bitcoin, but we need to stop using that as an excuse to. To let people do illegal things. It's just. It's so bad and it's so shameless. And I'm just so shocked that people aren't more upset about it.

[Bill Gates]

You're shocked? You're shocked.

[Ed]

I love that.

[Bill Gates]

I love your moral clarity on this. I like that you're this young person who hates crypto.

[Prof. G]

Yeah. Because it's terrible and it's so obvious.

[Bill Gates]

There you go.

[Prof. G]

We'll be right back after the break with a look at Apple's safari shift. If you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give Prof. G Markets a follow wherever you get your podcasts.

[Scott Galloway]

Support for the show comes from the fundrise flagship fund. For decades, real estate has been a cornerstone of the world's largest portfolios. But it's also historically been complex, time consuming and expensive. But imagine if real estate investing was suddenly easy. All the benefits of owning real, tangible assets without the complexity and expense. That's the power of the fundrise flagship real estate fund. Now you can invest in a $1.1 billion portfolio of real estate, starting with a as little as $10. 4700 single family rental homes spread across the booming Sun Belt. 3.3 million square feet of highly sought after industrial facilities. Thanks to the e commerce wave, the flagship fund is one of the largest of its kind, well diversified and managed by a team of professionals. And now it's available to you. Visit fundrise.com profg to explore the fund's full portfolio. Check out historical returns and start investing in just minutes. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risk charges and expenses of the fundrise flagship fund before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund's [e-mail] flagship. This is a paid advertisement. Support for the show comes from public.com all right. If you're serious about investing, you need to know about public.com that's where you can invest in everything stocks, options, bonds and more. They even offer some of the highest yields in the industry including the bond accounts 6% or higher yield that remains locked in even if the Fed cuts rates. With Public you can get the tools you need to make informed investment decisions. Their built in AI tools called Alpha doesn't just tell you if an asset is moving, it tells you why the asset is moving so you can actually understand what's driving your portfolio performance. Public is a FINRA registered SIPC insured US based company with a customer support team that actually cares. Bottom line, your investments deserve a platform that takes them as as simple seriously as you do. Fund your account in five minutes or [e-mail] profg and get up to $10,000 when you transfer your old portfolio. That's public.com profg paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities, options and bonds and a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures I should also disclose I am an investor in Public.

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[Prof. G]

Today we're back with profitary markets. Google stock fell 9% after Apple SVP Eddy Cue testified that Apple may begin integrating AI search engines like Perplexity into Safari. Speaking during the DOJ's antitrust case against Google, Eddie Q revealed that Safari saw a decline in search volume for the first time last month, a shift that he attributed to users turning to AI powered search tools. While he said Google should remain the default for Safari, Q believes AI search tools will eventually replace traditional search engines. So this is a huge deal in terms of what it did to Google stock. Google stock fell 9%, wiped out around a quarter of a trillion dollars in market value. And let me just I just want to clarify, like what are the implications of what this random dude at Apple said in this testimony in this antitrust case? So the first is that according to him, Google searches are declining for the first time on Apple devices as measured by search entries on Safari, which of course is the default app browser on Apple devices. So that's the first thing. The second thing he said he thought that AI tools like OpenAI and Perplexity and Anthropic that they are eventually going to replace Google and that Apple is now focusing on AI based search. And the third thing is that he seems to be signaling that this $20 billion per year contract between Google and Apple, remember Google pays Apple $20 billion a year to be the default option when you search things on your Apple device, when you're searching for things on Safari. He seems to be signaling that after, when it's all said and done in this antitrust trial that that contract will be outlawed, that the Google 20 billion DOL contract with Apple will no longer exist. So many implications that are happening here as a result of these comments and Wall street really did not like it. I mean 9% drop in Google stock, that is a huge drop when you're looking at a $2 trillion plus company. So Scott, any reactions to what's happened here to Google? Any reactions to Eddie Q's comments in this testimony? What do you think of this news?

[Bill Gates]

It's great to be a monopoly and when something threatens your Monopol, it takes the stock down. And also I think this was, I think people felt that this might expedite the transfer of market share from Alphabet to ChatGPT. There's been talk even about potentially OpenAI bidding for Chrome if they're forced to spin it. And so it feels like momentum has its own momentum and things are not great for Alphabet. And you know one, that's an incredible high margin payment, $20 billion a year and Google, it does feel like OpenAI is an existential threat.

[Ed]

I would argue that Google or Alphabet is the cheapest. If I were going to put money.

[Bill Gates]

Into one of those companies right now.

[Ed]

I'd be tempted to go for growth in Meta.

[Bill Gates]

But I can't, I can't morally reconcile investing in Meta.

[Ed]

What I just don't get is if the S and p trades at 24.

[Bill Gates]

I think it's just hard to understand how alphabetical is not in the top.

[Ed]

Median of companies in terms of growth.

[Bill Gates]

And it's trading at 17. So to me Alphabet feels like the.

[Ed]

Least expensive of them.

[Bill Gates]

You had, I think a great stat.

[Ed]

And that is as of today, Google is registering 353times as many searches as OpenAI.

[Bill Gates]

Let me put it this way, the carcass is bleeding but this is going to be a big carcass for a long, long time.

[Prof. G]

I hard agree with you on this. Just want to like I Mean, first it might be worth asking like why exactly is Wall street selling? And there are so many different reasons. I mean, is it because they believe Google will be broken up? Is it because they believe Google needs this partnership with Apple to dominate in search? Is it because they believe or because they learned that the search volume on Safari is going down? Is it because Apple is moving into AI and maybe that's evidence that AI based search is going to kill traditional search? I mean, all of these questions and my guess is it's sort of this combination of all of these things. And I like what you said, like momentum has momentum. It's almost like all of the uncertainty around those questions kind of turbocharged this pessimism surrounding Google and that's why you saw this massive devaluation in the stock. But I do want to step back and look at the valuation and more specifically look at it vis a vis the sum of its parts. And I just want to clarify, this is sort of a very quick, rough and dirty valuation, but I think it's helpful in understanding what's going on here. So Google Cloud is a $43 billion business. If we were to apply a comparable multiple, say of Oracle, which trades at 8 times sales, then you're looking at $350 billion in market cap. You look at YouTube, $54 billion business, give it a Netflix multiple of 12x, that's a $650 billion market cap. Then there's all of the other stuff that Google makes money off of, like Google One and Google Health and Waymo and the Google Phone. But for the sake of this argument, let's just not even include them. So let's just be very conservative. Let's look at Cloud, let's look at YouTube, those businesses, you're looking at a market cap of a trillion dollars, which means that under those assumptions, the search business, which generates $200 billion in reven, that business is trading at the current price at around probably less, four times sales. Because I remember I didn't even include all those other businesses and the other bets that Google's getting into. And granted this is a quick and dirty analysis, but my sense is that when you look at the company, when you do a sum of parts analysis, I think the search business here is massively undervalued. What I think is happening, I think the market's gotten a little too carried away with this whole AI is replacing Google thesis. I mean, you look at how the market reacted to this news, they're basically saying that Google search is doomed. And what they seem to be ignoring is one, the fact that Google search is actually still growing when you look at revenue. And two, Google is also investing heavily in AI. Like they're not out of the AI race. And so the idea that you hear these comments from some Apple executive and then you suddenly decide Google search is over, to me, that is exuberant, bordering on irrational. And it seems also to ignore all of Google's other growth investments. So I think Google is way undervalued right now. If you're thinking about buying Google, I would argue the time to buy is right now. It's gotten crushed year to date, down almost 20%. It's trading at its cheapest levels in a decade, 17 times earnings. Compare that to the S and P which is trading at like 25, 26. You know, Google, it's a juggernaut tech company and yet it's being valued today like it was like a dying industrials company.

[Bill Gates]

Yeah, I love that. Some of the parts analysis, I used to do that when I was an activist investor and go in and get.

[Ed]

Board seats and tell them to break.

[Bill Gates]

Up and they'd say fuck off and then I'd leave.

[Prof. G]

Not Gateway, though.

[Bill Gates]

Yeah, they sold. They sold.

[Ed]

What a baller.

[Bill Gates]

Gateway. Anyways, I would say if you really did a hard analysis, Google or the Google search business is being valued at two to three times revenues. Pinterest is three times revenues. So Google's just a better business than Pinterest. The thing we're not talking about, that I'm increasingly thinking is about to happen, that I think we're on the verge of the autonomous wars and autonomous is going to create a massive amount of. Of excitement. It was supposed to happen. Supposed to happen, Supposed to happen. Didn't, didn't, didn't. People have just sort of like constantly sick of rolling their eyes. It feels like it's happening and it's going to reshape transportation and the unit economics of Last Mile and there'll be a ton of excitement and hands down.

[Ed]

The leader is Waymo.

[Prof. G]

Just one other implication that I want to get your take on. You know, I think one of the reasons Wall Street's freaking out is just the possibility of a breakup. You've made this point before, but I just think it's worth highlighting again that breakups can actually be really good for shareholders. I feel like there's this feeling in the investment community that if you break up a company, it's like you're almost seizing people's shares in the company. Like you're just making them Poor overnight. And they're sort of not acknowledging that. Actually, no, all it means is you're separating out these business segments into different companies. You're still going to keep your shares. It's just the shares are going to be spread across multiple companies. And you've made this point, and Matt Stoller has made this point in his newsletter, that this can actually be value accretive for shareholders. You look at Standard Oil, which got broken up. It ended up creating Exxon and Mobil and Conoco and Chevron, all these other companies. And Rockefeller, he ended up quintupling his wealth. The shareholders of Standard Oil did incredibly well after that breakup. And it feels to me that maybe the market's sort of forgotten that and they're not really considering that. They're considering this breakup concept to be this existential threat that would just kill Google overnight and not considering that there's actually like, there's upside risk here too. It could be value accretive for the company.

[Bill Gates]

You're singing for my himbo brother. I think that if you look at the history of breakups, PayPal used to be the payment system within ebay.

[Ed]

It's now worth more.

[Bill Gates]

It's now worth twice as much as ebay. Every one of the seven baby bells in the AT&T breakup was worth more than the original AT and t within 10 years. So breakups almost always work for shareholders. And if the where you find alpha and dislocation here is if the wolves really circle for Meta or for Alphabet and the stock goes down, I think that's an enormous buying opportunity because it's.

[Ed]

Not like the asset is taken away from those shareholders.

[Bill Gates]

The shareholders own a proportionate amount in that new co. And so all of a sudden, and then you get diversification. I used to own a share of Alphabet. Now I own one share of Alphabet and three shares of Google and three shares of YouTube and two shares in Waymo. However, they decided they wanted to break it up. And the reality is a spin of assets that creates more pure plays is accretive to shareholders.

[Ed]

Because here's the thing.

[Bill Gates]

I don't need Alphabet to diversify.

[Scott Galloway]

For me, I would like the opportunity.

[Bill Gates]

To just buy a pure play YouTube. I would like that.

[Ed]

I'm not sure I want Waymo.

[Scott Galloway]

Maybe I do, maybe I don't.

[Bill Gates]

Maybe I don't want to invest in Google. Or maybe I do want to invest.

[Ed]

In a cheap Google because people think it's declining.

[Bill Gates]

Whatever it is, we don't need conglomerates to diversify. For us, we can diversify on our own. So I think that is a huge opportunity. And just thinking about this, I keep saying I'm going to sell everything and invest in European stocks. I might do a little dribble into Alphabet, into the alpha to the bet and see what happens here.

[Prof. G]

There we go.

[Bill Gates]

You've talked me into it.

[Prof. G]

There we go. Coming back to America. We'll be right back after the break with a look at Uber's earnings. If you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on Profg Markets.

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[Prof. G]

We're back with profg markets. Uber's first quarter earnings largely beat expectations, but the stock dropped more than 2% as revenue and gross boat bookings fell short of Forecasts still, CEO Dara Khosrowsahi noted there are no signs of weakening consumer sentiment. He also highlighted efforts to lower prices and said autonomous vehicles are, quote, the single greatest opportunity ahead for Uber. I'll give some of my initial reactions to these earnings here. You know, they missed on revenue, but barely. It was 11.5 billion versus what Wall street wanted, which was 11.6, but it was still up 14% from a year earlier. I think that's fantastic growth. I think the real highlight to me, which was honestly a little surprised to see the stock drop, was the bottom line, where they had $0.83 per share in EPS versus $0.50 expected. And that was a big beat. And I think this is the most important piece of the Uber business right now. I mean, for years, it was all about growth, growth, growth, revenue, revenue, revenue. But the question now is, can this company, or at least the question in the past two or three years, can this company figure out a way to get profitable? That was the big concern. Now, they had their first ever profitable year in 2023. They followed it up again in 2024. But what we're seeing is that in 2025, it's only getting better. You look at every line item on the income statement, costs are going down across the board. And you look at the operating profitability adjusted. EBITDA's up 35% year over year. It's really, really strong on the profitability front. So I think what I'm learning about Uber is, yes, still a growth company, yes, still a tech company. It's still got significant expectations to live up to, but now that it has the scale, it feels like the model actually makes sense. And it's not this speculative bet anymore. It feels like they've kind of stripped out the risk here. And again, I'm gonna be bullish on this one, too. 19 times earnings. I think that's quite, quite low. I was bullish at the beginning of the year. It's up 30% year to date. I'm still bullish. I think there's a lot of room to grow here. And I was very impressed by those profitability numbers. This feels like a very solid, safe company that is also betting big on some growth vehicles.

[Bill Gates]

I mean, there's so many amazing CEOs running amazing companies, but I think Daro is one of them. And he took an incredible concept that Travis started, and he kind of evolved the firm to sort of adult management, made some great acquisitions, and Uber's just sort of running away with it.

[Ed]

They have scale.

[Bill Gates]

It's well managed. He got into food delivery. He's embraced rather than saying, oh, autonomous.

[Ed]

Is not coming, he's embraced embracing it.

[Bill Gates]

And I think he's done deals with the biggest players and they, they have.

[Ed]

Almost near monopoly status.

[Bill Gates]

I'm trying to think in terms of actual impact on my life and consumer usage. There's very few brands that it didn't.

[Ed]

Like that I didn't use 20 years.

[Bill Gates]

Ago that have, are more integrated and.

[Ed]

Important in my life.

[Bill Gates]

I, I could stay at home and.

[Ed]

Take edibles and just order Ubers and just watch where the car is. I'm like, oh, it's a QX60.

[Bill Gates]

Why is he going left on broom?

[Ed]

I find it like enjoyable to see where my car is.

[Prof. G]

You might be alone there. I'm not sure I do.

[Bill Gates]

When I think about, I grew up in a time where you actually got a driver's license. I went to the DMV with my friend Adam Markman on my 16th birthday. He came with me because it was so important and I love cars. I've spent a ridiculous amount of money on cars. I don't have a car because of Uber and I would bet I spend.

[Ed]

$5,000 a month on $3,000 a month on Ubers.

[Bill Gates]

I, I will take Ubers everywhere if I'm, I mean I just love, I love that service.

[Ed]

I think they do an amazing job.

[Bill Gates]

And I didn't like the company initially because I thought they were using cheap capital and software to circumvent employment labor laws and getting figured out a way to get people to monetize their car.

[Ed]

As a payday loan because they were.

[Bill Gates]

So desperate, which was true. But they're charging more, which I think.

[Ed]

Is the right thing to do. I think it's paying their drivers more.

[Bill Gates]

I think Uber Eats is fantastic and just, I think Dara's done a great job. So they barely missed expectations.

[Ed]

I would call this a meet.

[Bill Gates]

I think they met expectations. I think it's really hard to say they missed.

[Prof. G]

It's interesting you say, I mean, I don't think you're the average consumer. I don't think most people are spending three to $5,000 a month on their Ubers. But where you might be indicative of the average consumer is, or at least this is what the market is telling us. You know, this is a pretty tariff insulated business. I mean certainly in terms of first order effects, I mean they're not getting tariffs on anything. But I think the question that the market that investors should be asking is like what are these second order effects? From tariffs? What actually happens to the consumer? If prices are going up and affordability is difficult for the consumer, will Uber be impacted by those price increases in everyday items? If you're strapped for cash, are you still gonna be taking Ubers? I think that's a question that I'm not sure I could answer. But the market seems to believe, at least so far, up 30, 30% year to date. The market seems to believe, yeah, people will still use Ubers. It's such a systemic part of. For those who do take Ubers, it's such a systemic part of their lives that in the same way that the market believes people aren't gonna cut back on their Netflix subscriptions, the market seems to believe people aren't going to cut back on riding around in an Uber. I think that's probably not going to be true of food delivery. I think if there's one place you start cutting, it's you decide, okay, I'll probably walk to Chipotle versus having a taxi deliver my burrito to my doorstep. But it is interesting, that question. Like, it does seem that this is becoming so endemic to the human experience, the American experience. Human experience. At least if you live in a city. I don't want to speak for rural Americans, but if you live in New York, as an example, like, yeah, you're Ubering around a lot.

[Bill Gates]

I'll do four Ubers today. And to your point, about. About it being stitched into, you know, societal norms and tuned to the zeitgeist of our culture. Because I write a lot about young men and mating. I get served all of these tiktoks with people talking about dating.

[Ed]

And have you seen this? One of the new litmus tests for.

[Bill Gates]

Whether a guy is worth dating is or a new minimum table stakes for.

[Ed]

A date is, did he send an.

[Prof. G]

Uber to bring her to the location?

[Ed]

Yeah.

[Bill Gates]

To bring the date to the dinner?

[Ed]

Yeah.

[Prof. G]

Oh, fuck off. No way.

[Ed]

Uh.

[Bill Gates]

Oh, glad you're in a relationship. Yeah, that. That's sort of an expectation now. And I thought, I can't imagine when I was a kid, like, sending a limo for my date. I'm like, this generation is becoming. I'm pretty entitled.

[Prof. G]

Well, he's going to send you, like, a Honda Accord is what he's going to send you. Now maybe you go for the Uber. Uber Lux.

[Bill Gates]

Look, this company would. I think this company is vulnerable to a recession, but I bet it would be more. All right, I'm not going to take Uber Lux. I'm going to take Uber X or whatever. I think Consumers have just gotten way too used to the convenience of having a private driver show up and drive you somewhere.

[Prof. G]

I think jury's still out on that question. Like, I think the market might be being a little too optimistic. Like, I'm cautious of how they're pricing their stuff in terms of Netflix as well. I'm just not sure. I guess because we haven't seen how bad the tariff impact would be. But it is certainly an interesting question and it's interesting to see the market take a position. It sounds like in agreement with you. Let's talk about a little bit about autonomous, because that was a big focus and Dara stated that it's a huge priority. I mean, just some context. As we've discussed, Uber has entered this partnership with Waymo. They've now got 100 autonomous Waymo vehicles operating in Austin that you can just order on the Uber app. On the earnings call, he said that those vehicles are now more productive than 99% of drivers in the city. They said the program has exceeded expectations. I think the autonomous program is very exciting. I think it's a big deal. I think that's where you're going to get this growth from Uber. The only question mark I have here on Uber and its role in autonomous. As we know, Uber was developing their own vehicles. They wanted to make their own robot cars essentially, and then they decided to scrap that and instead what they're doing is they are entering these contracts with Waymo. Waymo has the cars, Uber has the network. Waymo pays Uber to use the network. And it's great for Uber because it means they don't have to invest any upfront capital. They can just sort of leverage their existing technology. It's also great for Waymo because Waymo needs to focus on the hard stuff. They need to manufacture the cars and create the software. They need to make sure that these cars are actually safe and people aren't crashing. So it works right now and Uber has that leverage. My question though, just from a long term perspective, what happens down the line? What happens if Waymo perfects the technology and then suddenly they decide, actually we're going to build our own network, we don't want to pay these fees to U. I don't think we're anywhere close to that. But you know, if that does happen and Uber loses that leverage, suddenly you're out of the AV race, which, as you said, the race is on now. So that's sort of the long term question I'm thinking about. I think it poses a real incentive for Uber to maybe get back into building these vehicles in house. Because if autonomous is the future of mobility, and I think it is, if you're Uber, you don't want to lose out on that market, right?

[Bill Gates]

Yeah. I just think the. The cost. When you say build the vehicles, you mean build the autonomous driving technology.

[Prof. G]

Yep.

[Scott Galloway]

Yeah.

[Bill Gates]

I just think it's such an arms race and there's so much capital involved that I think you're underestimating the power of the custody of the consumer and how lazy consumers are when they get comfortable with an interface. I have uploaded all my credit cards to Uber. I understand it, and it's just super easy for me to hit it and go. And so, I mean, essentially, Uber has become the iOS for transportation, and I'm so comfortable with it. It's so deeply integrated in my life. I understand it. My credit cards are there that I think that these guys are going to.

[Ed]

Figure out a way to work together.

[Bill Gates]

And it's sort of like the default operating system. Android and iOS have so much power because consumers are comfortable with that ui.

[Prof. G]

Or even maybe another analogy would be like, Boeing versus Delta. Like, Boeing's going to make the plane, but Delta developed the network and the customer base. You're going to book your flight with Delta.

[Bill Gates]

The idea of me pulling up Waymo, that app, downloading it, uploading my credit.

[Ed]

Cards, as opposed to just Uber, which.

[Bill Gates]

Has the selection, the option of autonomous or the option of an suv, or the option if I don't want.

[Ed]

If I want a driver.

[Bill Gates]

I just think they're going to be in a position to drive so much customer value that they'll be able to negotiate contracts that say, look, you can't fuck us. I think they're going about it the right way. The same way that Apple said we're not going to spend a ton of money on developing our own browser instead or our own search, we're going to just cash a check for $20 billion from someone else and focus on other things. I think Uber actually has made the right choice.

[Ed]

I mean, because, remember, initially they were.

[Bill Gates]

Really big on autonomous and spending a lot of money on it.

[Prof. G]

They certainly made that decision independently.

[Bill Gates]

Yeah, I think they're actually. I think it's a smart idea for them. I think they're going to still be a winner here. I think there'll be room for more. I think Waymo will be a big winner here, and I think Uber will also be a big winner.

[Prof. G]

Let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll see earnings from Walmart, from Toyota, And Alibaba. We'll also see the consumer price and producer price indices for April. Scott, do you have any predictions?

[Ed]

So my prediction, Ed, is that Alibaba.

[Bill Gates]

Is going to beat. I think that one of the knock on effects here is that Alibaba and.

[Ed]

Chinese companies have had this overhang of being Chinese. And I saw this data that just.

[Bill Gates]

Blew my mind and I presented it.

[Ed]

In Hamburg, Germany yesterday.

[Bill Gates]

And that is that for the first time in history, when you survey people from around the globe, globe, more of.

[Ed]

Them believe that China is a force for good in the world in the.

[Bill Gates]

US And I just could. It just absolutely blew my mind.

[Prof. G]

That's crazy.

[Bill Gates]

How does that drill down to Alibaba?

[Ed]

I think that European companies and international.

[Bill Gates]

Companies have been felt much more confident using American cloud providers to store their data. And I think a lot of them.

[Ed]

Are now reconsidering potentially using Chinese companies, specifically Alibaba, for their cloud needs.

[Bill Gates]

And I think Alibaba is going to report earnings that show especially strong growth in their cloud unit, which will give their stock a pop.

[Prof. G]

This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Dan Shalon is our intern. Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof. G Markets from the Vox Media podcast network. Join us on Facebook Thursday for our conversation with Alice Hahn. Only on Profge Markets.

[Ed]

I want.

[Bill Gates]

I mean, okay, so I'm a little.

[Ed]

Bit triggered by delivery because.

[Bill Gates]

It'S put a real strain on my marriage.

[Ed]

At first it was some drunken one.

[Bill Gates]

Night stand during a business trip. Then it was her boss and the pool guy. And lately she's been, you know.

[Ed]

Let me start over.

[Prof. G]

Follow that joke.

[Bill Gates]

No. So look, I relate to delivery. This is the last straw.

[Ed]

I'm now divorcing my wife.

[Bill Gates]

At first it was one night stands, then, then her boss, then our pool guy, then the Deliveroo delivery guy, and then it was her. And then it was her very own.

[Ed]

Stepbrother, Ed, and even my own best friend.

[Bill Gates]

I don't know, Ed. I just can't stop sucking cocks.

[Ed]

Ah.

[Bill Gates]

What do you think of uber earnings?

[Prof. G]

Are you gonna rotate out of the business world and just gonna full send into the comedy world? You need to start hanging out with comedians.

[Ed]

I'm descending into something.

[Bill Gates]

It's not the comedy world. I'm definitely descending into something, but no, it's not the comedy world.

[Ed]

I love that joke.

[Bill Gates]

I've used that joke a lot. That's a big. That's a crowd pleaser. That's a crowd pleaser.

[Prof. G]

Is it?

[Ed]

You know, I'm not sure.

[Bill Gates]

We'll find out in the comments.

[Prof. G]

It's hard to know when you're, when you're sort of. We're not even hearing the audience. We're sort of on a podcast.

[Ed]

I think that's important.

[J]

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