Podcast Summary: "Raging Moderates: Is This a Turning Point for America?"

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway—Raging Moderates
Host: Jessica Tarlov
Guest: Sarah Longwell (Publisher, The Bulwark; Host, The Focus Group Podcast)
Release Date: January 14, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of "Raging Moderates" centers on a turbulent moment in U.S. politics, marked by the shooting of activist Renee Good by an ICE agent. Host Jessica Tarlov and guest Sarah Longwell explore whether this public outrage represents a wider shift in American sentiment—an awakening among “raging moderates”—and whether bipartisan frustration might be a turning point for the country. Other key topics include the independence of the Federal Reserve in light of the Jerome Powell investigation, partisan narratives on immigration and law enforcement, the declining credibility of moderate Republicans, and new Gallup polling showing dramatic shifts in party identification heading into the 2026 midterms.

Tarlov and Longwell’s conversation blends policy analysis, firsthand political observations, and frank, often humorous moments on the costs of speaking up in divided times.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Shooting of Renee Good: Political and Social Aftermath

• Event Recap: Renee Good, an activist, was shot and killed by ICE agent Jonathan Ross in Minneapolis, sparking nationwide protests and sharp debates over ICE accountability and federal overreach.
• Real-Time Gaslighting and Partisan Narratives:
  • Longwell highlights how the administration’s immediate attempt to misrepresent the video evidence—even as the public could see the truth—made this more radicalizing than previous incidents.
  • Quote: “For me… the hard part was watching the government tell a lie in real time while we could all see that the opposite was happening… It's just so clear how they are trying to gaslight us. And it's... unlocking a different level of rage than I feel like the normal lies do.” (Longwell, 05:11)
• Hypocrisy in Law Enforcement Narratives:
  • Longwell compares the harsh rhetoric around touching ICE officers (“expect to get shot”) to Trump’s pardoning of January 6 rioters who attacked police:
    • “The hypocrisy here is off the charts… Trump pardoned all of them. So we already know you're lying about this.” (Longwell, 06:54)
• Government Overreach and Civil Liberties:
  • Tarlov spotlights the disturbing normalization of masked federal agents with excessive force against Americans, likening it to historical authoritarianism.
  • Both point to public discomfort with ICE’s militarization—even among those sympathetic to stronger borders.

Memorable Exchange:

• Tarlov: “...You're out there doing everything from capturing Maduro to backing an officer that's shooting a woman sitting in her car with her wheels clearly turned to the right… So I think those two turning points are kind of adding up to what we're seeing in terms of this big backlash against the administration.” (Tarlov, 10:44)

2. Public Outrage & Focus Groups: What Is Changing in American Attitudes?

• Sustained Outrage and “Choosing Where to Spend Outrage”:
  • Longwell discusses the difficulty of keeping public attention on each Trump administration outrage, but argues the ICE shooting feels different—“a different level of rage.”
• American Identity and Resistance to Authoritarianism:
  • Longwell, a former Republican, frames the backlash as deeply American:
    • “The whole reason we exist is that, like, it's in our… bloodstreams, it's in our creed… to say no to tyranny.” (Longwell, 13:05)
  • Even those who support tough immigration policy are uncomfortable with unchecked federal violence.
• Mobilization and Tipping Points:
  • Tarlov observes more people “feeling called off the couch” to protest, and compares the Bush administration (despite policy disagreements) as having a basic “love of America,” now absent.

3. Immigration Politics: Center-Left vs Hard-Right Narratives

• Democrats’ Messaging Challenges:
  • Both criticize Democrats for failing to acknowledge that most Americans want border order and safety—not open borders—and for dismissing legitimate safety concerns as just “racist.”
  • Longwell stresses three voter priorities: affordability, safety, and less annoyance on social issues.
    • “Table ante for politics is: I'm going to think about your material well being, I'm going to think about your safety, and then like I'm not going to be so annoying on social issues.” (Longwell, 21:28)
• ICE’s Role and Public Perception:
  • Tarlov underscores the risk for liberals in appearing “knee-jerk” defensive of ICE’s abolition, even when it’s failing. There’s a need to show seriousness about removing actual criminals but oppose overreach and abuse.
• Policy Nuance:
  • Both lament the lack of nuanced public debate—e.g., ICE is acting outside its purview (handling “police infractions” like traffic), exacerbating community mistrust and harming broader law enforcement.

4. Independence of the Federal Reserve & Attack on Jerome Powell

[Segment Start: 25:21]

• Criminal Investigation into Powell:
  • Tarlov introduces the criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting near-universal consensus that it’s political retaliation by the Trump White House for resisting monetary policy manipulation.
• Dramatic GOP Admissions:
  • Many Republican senators openly admit the investigation is punitive—Roger Marshall calls it “a troll” (25:58)—highlighting a new threshold of normalized, joking abuse of institutions.
• Trump’s Economic Motives:
  • Longwell ties the pressure on Powell to Trump’s damaging tariffs:
    • “Trump is wrecking the economy with his tariffs… he wants to run it hot. And he wants lower interest rates so he can run it hot. So he's trying to bully the Fed…” (Longwell, 27:23)
• Powell’s Example of Institutional Courage:
  • Longwell lauds Powell’s “old man steadiness” and his direct confrontation with both Congress and Trump:
    • “He's out in May… but he is publicly putting his body out in front and saying, I won’t let you do this to my institution. Not all heroes wear capes.” (Longwell, 28:16)
  • Both express disappointment in the wider “elite” silence, contrasting Powell’s stand with retirees and officials who fail to speak up in the face of crisis.

5. Failure of Moderate Republican Resistance & Institutional Weakness

[Segment Start: 33:57]

• False Comfort from Moderate GOP Statements:
  • Longwell critiques the performative dismay of moderate Republicans (Murkowski, Tillis):
    • “We have such low expectations that they can clear this meager bar by saying, ‘I'm not happy about it.’ No. Lisa Murkowski… say you’re going to caucus with the Democrats.” (Longwell, 34:34)
  • She argues moderates’ refusal to break with Trump now does more harm, giving “tacit approval” and misleading “normies” into thinking this is all normal.
• Generational and Long-Term Change Required:
  • The hosts agree that deep institutional reform—including replacing the political “gerontocracy”—is necessary to protect democracy, not just short-term GOP losses.

6. Gallup Party Identification Poll: A New Political Landscape?

[Segment Start: 43:54]

• Gallup Findings:
  • Surge in Americans identifying as independents (45%), led by younger voters.
  • Democrats now enjoying an 8-point lead in party identification and generic ballot—major reversal since 2024.
• Caveats on “Independents”:
  • Longwell stresses most independents “lean” strongly, and that many pro-Trump “independents” are essentially GOP-inclined but scornful of the party label.
    • “One of the hallmarks of Trumpism… he has taught a lot of his voters to hate the Republican Party. They are Trump only or Trump first voters.” (Longwell, 45:03)
• 2026 Midterms Outlook:
  • Dems are likely poised for strong gains—especially in the House—but Longwell warns this is “insufficient for the long-term project of beating back the toxic forces that Donald Trump has unleashed.”
  • “This is a generational challenge and just one election won't be enough… it is necessary to stop the bleeding, but it is insufficient.” (Longwell, 48:37)
• Challenges for Democratic Leadership:
  • Both point out the age of Democratic leadership (Schumer, Biden) and the need for new “wartime” leaders to replace institutionalists out of step with modern threats.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Government Lies (ICE Shooting):

  • “The toxicity of them lying in the face of exonerating footage… is some kind of very specific break.”
    —Sarah Longwell (05:05)

• On American Identity and Authoritarianism:

  • “Your American birthright is you do not have to get down on your knees for tyrants… Instinctually, Americans are uncomfortable with masked agents roaming the streets of America, shooting Americans in the face because they are protesting.”
    —Sarah Longwell (13:15)

• On Jerome Powell’s Stand:

  • “Not all heroes wear capes… [Powell] is doing the right thing in the right way. And I admire it deeply.”
    —Sarah Longwell (30:36)

• On the Generational Fight:

  • “Saving America is a root and branch operation for this version of the Republican Party… continue to gird your loins for a long term fight.”
    —Sarah Longwell (48:28)

• On Institutional Gerontocracy:

  • “Chuck Schumer has the opportunity to say, ‘You know what? The gerontocracy is real.’ … They need to turn over leadership to people who understand the threat Trump poses.”
    —Sarah Longwell (52:11)

Key Timestamps

• 03:51 — Transition from light conversation to analysis of the Renee Good shooting and ICE.
• 05:00–11:00 — Exploration of partisan gaslighting, government response, and national outrage.
• 13:45 — Discussion on American resistance to authoritarianism and the normalization of ICE militarization.
• 20:00–22:30 — What voters really want: safety, affordability, and practical governance.
• 25:21 — Segment shift: Investigation into Jerome Powell & what’s at stake for Federal Reserve independence.
• 34:00 — The fecklessness of “raging moderate” Republicans and why more is needed than statements.
• 43:54 — Gallup poll: Party ID swings, “independent” voters, and 2026 midterm implications.
• 48:28 — The generational challenge of post-Trump politics and the insufficiency of a single election.
• 52:17–53:25 — Institutional renewal: Why the “gerontocracy” of Congress is an obstacle to needed change.

Conclusion

This episode contends that America is not simply facing a partisan crisis, but a cross-party moment of reckoning—one about truth, institutional resilience, and the real character of democracy. Tarlov and Longwell’s provocative, honest exchange is both a call to wakefulness and a realistic acknowledgment that, while outrage may now be bipartisan, turning it into lasting institutional change will demand more courage, new leadership, and a willingness to let go of old certainties.

The current political moment, they argue, requires more than electoral wins; it demands a full-scale renovation of parties, priorities, and the very definition of what it means to be an American moderate.