Raging Moderates: The 2028 Democratic Bench for President (ft. James Carville)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Raging Moderates: The 2028 Democratic Bench for President (ft. James Carville)
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Release Date: August 6, 2025

In this compelling episode of Raging Moderates, guest James Carville joins co-host Jessica Tarlev to delve into the current landscape of the Democratic Party as it prepares for the 2028 presidential race. The discussion navigates through pivotal topics such as redistricting battles, Democratic leadership renewal, immigration policy, culture wars, and effective messaging strategies to win over voters.

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1. Redistricting and Election Outlook

Jessica Tarlev initiates the conversation by addressing the escalating redistricting conflict in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott is threatening to remove Democratic lawmakers attempting to block Trump-backed maps that could potentially grant Republicans five additional House seats.

James Carville expresses concern over the process, labeling it "highly unusual" and "counterproductive," yet admits the lack of alternatives:

“I think this is a really counterproductive use of the legislature's time, but what else can you do?” ([03:11])

Despite the contentious redistricting efforts, Carville remains optimistic about the Democratic prospects in the House elections:

“I really don't see Democrats losing anywhere. Not any election, not any poll, not any. Anything.” ([04:26])

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2. Democratic Leadership and Future Candidates

The conversation shifts to Democratic leadership with a focus on Kamala Harris's political maneuvers and the party's struggle to present fresh faces. Carville critiques the Biden administration's insularity and lack of innovative strategies, attributing the 2024 election setbacks largely to Democratic missteps:

“We gave Democrats no say so and who their nominee would be or the direction their party would go in.” ([07:12])

Looking forward, Carville expresses strong confidence in the emerging talent within the Democratic Party:

“If we get to forward, this is the most talented potential group of presidential candidates in the history of American politics.” ([15:52])

He emphasizes the importance of Southern black voters in shaping the party's future:

“They’re going to come down and bring in a lot of that stuff in rural South Carolina, Georgia, the Mississippi Delta.” ([19:04])

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3. Immigration Policy

Jessica Tarlev raises concerns about the Biden administration's handling of immigration, highlighting broken promises and policy failures. Carville agrees, pointing out the administration's initial disaster in immigration policy and the influence of more progressive voices like Bernie Sanders on the administration's approach:

“The first part of the Biden administration was disaster. And the reason is he listened to those lefties.” ([35:52])

He advocates for a balanced approach to immigration, emphasizing both order and compassion:

“We absolutely need a healthy immigration policy and we need to deal with the people that are already here, period.” ([37:03])

Carville criticizes the current strategies, suggesting more structured and humane immigration reforms to regain public trust:

“Tell people we want immigration and we want order and there's no reason that we cannot have both.” ([38:14])

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4. Culture Wars and Messaging

The episode addresses the ongoing culture wars, particularly focusing on a controversial American Eagle campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney. Carville critiques the Democratic Party’s previous engagement with identity politics, which he believes alienated voters by overemphasizing group identities instead of individual humanity:

“Humanity is our most important identity, and the public never liked it.” ([44:39])

He observes a positive shift away from divisive identity language, suggesting that the party is moving towards more relatable and unified messaging:

“Don't talk about not being part of identity politics, just don't be part of identity politics.” ([46:52])

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5. Economic Concerns and Youth Voters

Economic issues are highlighted as critical for the Democratic Party’s success, especially among young voters. Carville underscores the necessity of addressing real economic hardships faced by younger generations, such as housing affordability and educational opportunities:

“We got to give these young people tools that my generation of young people had.” ([49:46])

He criticizes the current administration for failing to resonate with younger voters by not acknowledging their struggles adequately:

“If we don’t do that with young people very much at all and just understanding that just acknowledging the problem with an imperfect solution is 100 times better than denying the problem.” ([52:31])

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6. Conclusion and Forward Look

In wrapping up, Carville emphasizes the importance of a strong, confident Democratic presence and the power of winning elections to boost the party’s approval ratings:

“Winning is everything stupid.” ([53:25])

He calls for the party to embrace its internal talent and focus on delivering clear, actionable policies to win upcoming elections, particularly in key states like Virginia and New Jersey. Carville remains hopeful that with strategic leadership and voter-centric policies, the Democrats can regain momentum and secure victories in future electoral battles.

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Notable Quotes:

• James Carville:
  • “I think this is a really counterproductive use of the legislature's time, but what else can you do?” ([03:11])
  • “If we get to forward, this is the most talented potential group of presidential candidates in the history of American politics.” ([15:52])
  • “We absolutely need a healthy immigration policy and we need to deal with the people that are already here, period.” ([37:03])
  • “Humanity is our most important identity, and the public never liked it.” ([44:39])
  • “Winning is everything stupid.” ([53:25])

---

Key Takeaways:

• Redistricting Challenges: Despite intense battles over redistricting, Democrats remain confident in maintaining or even increasing their seats in the House.

• Leadership Renewal: The Democratic Party is poised for a renewal with a new generation of candidates, leveraging the pivotal influence of Southern black voters.

• Policy Critiques: Current immigration policies under the Biden administration are seen as flawed, necessitating a more balanced and humane approach.

• Messaging Strategies: Moving away from divisive identity politics towards a more human-centric and relatable communication style is crucial for broadening the party’s appeal.

• Economic Focus: Addressing the economic concerns of younger voters through practical and supportive policies is essential for future electoral success.

Carville's insights provide a roadmap for the Democratic Party to navigate its current challenges and harness its strengths towards a successful 2028 presidential campaign.

Transcript

[Unknown Host]

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[Jessica Tarlev]

Support for the show comes from Google Pixel. It's about time your smartphone gets smarter. For your next upgrade, meet the Google Pixel 9 Pro. You can experience its stunning new design, the advanced AI power of Gemini, and their best camera yet. A camera built to capture everyone in beautiful resolution, including the person taking the photo. When the extraordinary is possible. Never settle for less. You can learn more about the new Google Pixel 9 with Gemini Live on the Google Store. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlev. Scott's off for the month of August, but don't worry, we've got an incredible lineup of guests filling in. And to kick off Scot Free August, we're starting strong with the one and only Rajen Kin himself. Welcome to the show. James Carville, it's so great to have you here.

[James Carville]

Well, thank you. I'm glad to be here. Thank you.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, I'm so glad we could work this out and we're just going to get into it. We are going to be talking about Kamala's return to the spotlight, Trump's promises made, promises broken, and the Sydney Sweeney saga, which I'm going to try to make you interested in it from a culture war angle. Just when Democrats thought we could turn the page on 2024, the past is back in the spotlight. Kamala Harris is promoting a book about her short lived presidential run and prepping for the midterms. Joe Biden is back on the speech circuit. And Hunter Biden is stirring controversy on podcasts. As the party looks for fresh leadership, its most familiar faces keep stepping forward, complicating our reset. Meanwhile, in Texas, Republicans are escalating a redistricting battle with national implications. Governor Greg Abbott is threatening to remove Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to block Trump backed maps that could give Republicans five more House seats. James, how do you think we should be handling the map wars?

[James Carville]

Well, it's really unfortunate and I guess I'm like anybody else. Well, if you're gonna do this, which is a highly unusual thing in the middle of a decade, we have to do it also. I mean, it's gonna end in a pretty unfortunate place, but I don't know if there's any other answer to it. Honestly, Jessica, I'm open to any other suggestion. I think this is a really counterproductive use of the legislature's time, but what else can you do?

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, I mean, I tend to agree with you and I mean, that's a new position, I guess for me. A few weeks ago I would have said, you know, you should wait for the census to come out and we all should have voted to, you know, ban partisan gerrymandering, which is what Democrats supported in 2021. I'm, I guess, a little bit worried that we can't win this. Like Governor Newsom can add five seats in California and that's what the plan looks like as of now. But Kathy Hochul in New York is saying that she wants to get involved but can't do anything until 2027. So do you feel like this is going to be what shifts the midterms potentially back to the Republicans?

[James Carville]

Well, I think we're going to win by more than five seats.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Okay.

[James Carville]

Okay.

[Jessica Tarlev]

I mean, you're feeling good.

[James Carville]

Yeah. It's really hard to imagine that the Democrats don't win the House back. I mean, even if they gerrymander five more seats, I don't think that's going to be deterrentive. But look, I thought Harris had win in 2024, so you have every right to be skeptical. But I don't see Democrats losing anywhere. Not any election, not any poll, not any. Anything.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Wow.

[James Carville]

I mean, I don't know if you could argue whether it's the strength of the Democratic Party and then probably be skeptical of that. But this is the. We gotta forget this is the most unpop administration at this point in history. That there is the big beautiful bill is the most unpopular piece of legislation that I can remember. I mean, this thing is severely underwater, and it's just such a golden thing for Democrats to run on. Every time they get away from it, I get a little miffed of something like that. You got right in front of you. You can talk about the issues, and there's 10 things in there that are just utterly horrific. But you see these town halls, I mean, I look at these things very closely. There might be some Democratic plants in there, but not very many. And the kind of questions they ask are not questions that a Democratic operative would put in somebody's head. You know, they asked about detaining people and, you know, ICE agents wearing masks. You know, I would have said ask about rural hospitals. I ask about this. I mean, last night in Nebraska, you know, I'm sure Lincoln. There's a lot of Democrats in Lincoln at the University of Nebraska, but a lot of stuff is organic, man. It's just people are rebelling against this, and they're going to keep going as long as they keep holding these town halls. The leadership told him not to. This guy thought he was going to pull something off.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Mike Flood.

[James Carville]

Yeah. Who didn't work very well for him.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah. I mean, I guess a little bit of a hat tip to him for actually showing up to do it because he knew what was going to happen. Whether there were some plants who showed up or just his regular constituents.

[James Carville]

I don't. Maybe he knew. Maybe he was just used to being in that Nebraska district and, you know, having everybody agree with. I don't know. I don't know what his state of mind was.

[Jessica Tarlev]

So many have not shown up, though, so I'm glad that they did. And mostly because we got the footage of people talking about and there were such a range of issues, you know, from the Epstein stuff to health care to Alligator Alcatraz and what's going on with ice. But I guess I have a little bit of PTSD from 2024, when Donald Trump was historically unpopular as an individual. And, you know, we felt good for 40 of the 107 days that Kamala ran.

[James Carville]

So I blame 2024 almost exclusively on Democrats. Now, why do I mean that? Because it was evident two years, year and a half before the election. People A, did not want President Biden to run free election, and B, they wanted a change in direction. He didn't decide until July 21st. We now know that Harris was under orders from the President not to say that she would do anything different. We managed to pull this off. We gave Democrats no say so and who their nominee would be or the direction their party would go in. And then we said on the biggest issue that the country was looking for changes, acknowledgement that we can't argue with people. If they want something different, you just give them something different. And there were a thousand things that she could have done and she did none of it. And I don't have a problem writing a book. I think most every defeated presidential candidate goes out and writes a book. I know Hillary wrote her book, I think and you know, Mitt Romney or whoever. But it's clear this party wants to move on. Now 2024 is just something that Democrats don't want to think about, talk about, relive. They're ready to take the next step. And that's clear. Clear as a bell.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, no, I definitely feel that way. I live in New York City and we just had our I guess over a month ago. But it feels recent our mayoral primary where a lot of people wanted to move on with Zoran Mandani. And I was curious if you could talk about, I mean this is really going backwards but how any of the lessons of the 90s and the Clinton era relates to today. Because as someone whose politics are more moderate and Scott who is on vacation but we co host together I probably.

[James Carville]

More liberal than you are. I'm not on the progressive side but I don't nomenclature is not what's important. Go back to 92. There were three things. Three things change versus more to say that's our message. It's never going out of fashion. All right. Somebody a couple three weeks ago asked me, james, what's new in American politics? I said nothing and nothing will ever be new. You either like what you got or you want something different. Then the economy, stupid. Of course that drives you know how many economic reactions does a human being have in a day? You know, figured out I couldn't count that high. And then don't forget healthcare. But why do we have to change but just run on that and it's all contained in a big bad bill. If somebody gives you something, we'll take it. And they giving us a simple teed up message. Let's just deliver it. We don't need a lot of hoo hi and this and that and running around. Just talk about what's in there. We need to change this. It's putting fat cats over ordinary working people. It's putting people that already have it Made and hurting people who are trying to make it. I mean, you could just give a thousand alliterations of the same message. We don't need anything new. Keep those three things.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Okay, well, what do we do about all the stuff that keeps popping up then? I mean, we have this moment, right? We have Democrats on the proverbial lam right there in Illinois and New York because of the redistricting that's eating up the cycle. You have Epstein.

[James Carville]

Well, the redistricting itself is unfortunate, but I won't have any other choice. And I mean, I think at some point people have a basic sense of fairness. I don't think this. I didn't see any polling on it, but I don't think this Texas move is going to be very popular.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Well, it's definitely not. Democrats are totally where you are that, you know, they say just fight fire with fire. Mitch McConnell did this to us.

[James Carville]

Yeah, we would rather not do this, but as long as there's a three point line, we're going to shoot three points. Yeah, I would much prefer to talk about how we can get wages up. I would much prefer to talk about how we can make rural health care about it and improve rural hospitals. But unfortunately I have to deal with this in the meantime. I mean, do it, but don't act like there are other things that you would rather be doing and that they almost forcing you to do this. And just in the element of basic fairness. I mean, the Epstein stuff, it doesn't take a lot to keep it going. There's questions everywhere. Can't we finally get some answers? All we get is stonewalling and prison transfers and the House going out of session so they couldn't subpoena the records. There's so much we don't know. Why don't we get some answers out of here? Let's ask them. And then, you know, this is a giant distraction and go back to your message. But it's kind of hard to tell. People don't talk about a guy who either hung himself or was hung in a jail cell. And you had underage women all over the place and you had a British socialite in the middle of it and God knows everything. I mean, how do you not talk about that? You just can't.

[Jessica Tarlev]

No, it's definitely made for TV kind of stuff.

[James Carville]

Yeah, it's easy to understand and it fits on what a lot of people, a lot of people on the right say there's this giant cabal of coastal elites that are harvesting these young females. You don't know. You Got to give them credit. Two thirds. Right. They got the coastal elite wrong. There was a. A bunch of coastal elites. International coastal elites, I guess I'd call them, who were grooming and harvesting young women. Yeah, that's. That's true. It wasn't being done in Comet Pizza.

[Jessica Tarlev]

With Hillary standing at the front of the store.

[James Carville]

Yeah, yeah. You got the wrong guy. Your own person.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Do you feel like. I understand that the tide would be going in our direction, and historically that's just what's going to happen anyway with midterms. But we've spent a lot of time thinking about the way that we message and who the right messengers are, and if you're on social media and whether your videos look good and are you using the right font and filter. How are you feeling about the way that, I guess the Democrats are presenting? Because our approval rating is absolutely abysmal. I happen to think it's because we're not fighting hard enough. It's not because people actually hate the party or think that we don't stand for the right thing.

[James Carville]

So people belong to a political party because they want to win elections. That's what a political party is supposed to do. We lost. People are not happy. I don't have a positive image of the Democratic Party, okay? The title of my documentary is Winning. Is Everything Stupid? You didn't win, Period. Okay? In the case, I don't think people are prepared for what's getting ready to happen in Virginia. It's one thing to know that somebody's going to win an election and the other side knows they're going to lose. When the magnitude of this deceit is real, it's going to change a lot of things. And the image of the Democratic Party will go up some because they'll watch Spanberger and they'll watch Sheryl on election night, and they'll go, yeah, we win it. Great. Go, team, go. Then. This is why I am a real kind of optimist going forward, if we get to forward, this is the most talented potential group of presidential candidates in the history of American politics. Understand? Not in this century. Not compared to this. If I took the talent level of all of the potential candidates, and I think a lot of them are going to run. I think they asked me, I said, man, run. Get out there. And when people see and Democrats see. You mean we got somebody that can string a sentence together? I didn't know that. We got somebody that can frame a thought. Gee whiz, look at this. Come see, Martha. Look at this guy. Look at her and look at that, then you're going to see something. But it takes a little trust and a little forward thinking and say, well, we're going to win in Virginia and New Jersey. We are. We are going to win in 2026. We will. I happen to think the Senate is more in play than most people do, but it's a reasonable thing to assume that we can't win and send it back. And I think the talent level in our party, at the potential presidential level is as high as it's been in American history.

[Jessica Tarlev]

I love that.

[James Carville]

And it's one thing to say it, it's another thing to see it. We all know who they are, who they potentially are. And the other thing that 2028 will do is it'll settle. You know, people say, Donna, 80, 40 needs to be more progressive. You know, there are more people that live in New Jersey and Virginia than live in New York City. Now, you wouldn't have know that, but there are. And the primary voters are going to decide the direction of the party, and that's the way it should be. And they're going to have a healthy array of candidates to pick where they want to go in the direction and the person they want. And I think that they're going to do it very wisely. I'm very, very convinced of that.

[Jessica Tarlev]

So you don't feel like we're in the midst of. And I know in your op ed you said this is a civilized civil war, but we have to delay it.

[James Carville]

Right.

[Jessica Tarlev]

So can you expound on that a bit more for me? Because it's hard. I mean, maybe just because I work in TV and everything feels immediate and you get asked questions like this constantly, like, what does Mamdani mean for the future of the party? What is AOC getting more small dollar donations than any other candidate. And it's all over the state. Right. There are people in Buffalo that like AOC and people in Queens that like aoc. And I think that does say something about where the party is.

[James Carville]

Well, and there's younger, more progressive people their turn. The old people need to get out of the way. The future is now. Good run. And if you get the authority of winning the nomination behind you, then you've made your point. But I don't really count how many people you get in Idaho or how many overnight contributions you get. I mean, it's a sign of energy. It's a sign that people are there. But you know, Jessica, the Democratic Party has never nominated the most left candidate in a race. And I don't think it's going to happen. Now. Most people don't know the process for selecting a Democratic presidential candidate. Let me explain it to you in two words, Southern blacks, okay? That's where that. When, you know, we had lost New Hampshire, okay? We didn't run in Iowa. Other people had lost Biden. He wasn't even scratching. Even Nevada, New Hampshire, whatever. And then one day, Jim Clyburn dropped a hammer and the whole process was over. It was it. Boom. Okay? So you're going to see. And I happened because of the situation, my birth and my politics in my region. I happen to know Southern blacks better than most Caucasian consultants. And I got a news for you. They're not all that liberal. But like I said, the most conservative person I ever knew in my life was my daddy. They're going to come down and bring in a lot of that stuff in rural South Carolina, Georgia, the Mississippi Delta. And I don't think it's going to go over that big. I really don't.

[Jessica Tarlev]

There is a push within the party to try to change that level of influence, though. And I mean, you still see everyone's showing up and wearing their Clyburn T shirts, and Andy Bashir, you know, is out there and I think really putting himself onto the main stage in a different way than when he was auditioning to be Kamala's VP back in the summer of 2024. But so you see, nothing's gonna change. It's been Southern blacks, and it's gonna continue to be Southern blacks.

[James Carville]

That's not going to change between now and 2028. And by the way, I don't want to change. They do a very good job. Yeah, you have a very thoughtful job of voting, and I don't think the apple tag would be in a party to diminish the influence that Southern blacks have in Democratic primaries. I really don't. I'm satisfied with that. So however you draw it up, somebody's going to have influence now, you know, Iowa, we don't do that anymore. Let's see what happens in New Hampshire. But all roads lead through the South.

[Jessica Tarlev]

On that note, we're going to take a quick break. Stay with us.

[Unknown Host]

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[Jessica Tarlev]

Welcome back. Donald Trump loves to make big promises, but lately he's coming up short. He pledged to expand access to IVF after a Supreme Court picks helped overturn Roe v. Wade, but the White House now saying there's no plan to require insurance coverage or federal funding for fertility treatments. On immigration, Trump adviser Stephen Miller publicly set a target of 3,000 arrests per day. But in court, the DOJ denies the quota ever existed. And we've already talked about this a little bit. But despite Trump's history with Jeffrey Epstein and public pressure for transparency, the long promised Epstein files remain largely sealed. Ghislaine Maxwell is in a cushier prison as of now. And we're kind of asking what happens when the promises don't match the policy, do you think? I mean, I know you had your three point plan, it hasn't changed. I love that it's consistent, it's easy. We're always asking people like, just give us our three point plan. And now we can say we have the Carville plan that has got us wins for decades. But do you give any stock to the idea that broken promises actually affects Trump's base?

[James Carville]

I wouldn't call it broken promises. Oh, okay, look, he told you that he was going to cut taxes on rich people. He cut taxes on rich people. He told you that he wanted Project 2025 on. Dismantle the VA. They're dismantling the VA. They told you they wanted to close rural hospitals. They're closing rural hospitals. Argue that he's powerful and he's successful. Don't argue broken promises. And by and large, they're doing what Russell Boyd's most powerful person. Been in federal government for a long time now. The broken promise has said to be transparent in the Epstein case, anything but that. You could always throw something in. But I wouldn't argue broken promises. I'd argue bad results. Really bad.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Is that in that op ed that I cited earlier, you said we have to go out there and say we want to repeal. Absolutely. Every piece.

[James Carville]

Absolutely.

[Jessica Tarlev]

That's the way forward?

[James Carville]

Yes. I mean, look at the horror of it now. It's 4.1 trillion in debt. They just recalculated it. And I'm sorry, you know, you never want to like predict economic times. Bad, good. But Trump's numbers on the economy are terrible, as always. Numbers on cost of living. It's another thing I'm saying, never use word inflation. Always talk about cost of living. Always.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah. Would have been nice if we talked about that in 2024, I guess.

[James Carville]

And she could have said that, you know, we're going to following things because we know that families, instead of saying it's not what you think it is, we've actually created X number of jobs. We could have just given people something to cling on that, hey, I see something going on out there. I'm going to change something, to meet the moment. If we'd have had an open process, we'd have one. Would have gotten 53% in 2024. We forced that result on ourselves.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Do you have any insight into what actually happened within the Biden camp, which obviously seemed to be very, very insular? And then going back to what I brought up before, you know, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are showing up again at a moment where we feel like we need to shed skin, right. That we need to become something new. And it's a reminder that people did feel betrayed by the Democratic Party and that they were looking to us to save them, essentially from having to go back to Donald Trump and to your point, that we can force them into his bucket again.

[James Carville]

So I think I know what happened. When presidents get elected, they have a culture around it. So the Clinton culture was one way. The Obama people were different. The Biden and Biden inner circle was, we won this. We beat Donald Trump. No one else could do this. We let this country out of the pandemic into a lot of areas. Unprecedented prosperity, and we never get any respect. The Clinton people think they reinvented the goddamn wheel. The Obama people are arrogant and didn't return my phone calls when I was vice president. And, you know, they'll. Because we Irish guys and grew up in Scranton, and I think Mike grew up in Providence. You know, the hell with all these people. You know, they always tell us what we can't do. You know, we don't get the elite media to give us the credit that we deserve, and we're going to run, God damn it, and just get out of the way. I think that was a big part of the mentality of the President, Biden and the people around here. And then, of course, we know for a fact that there were all these elaborate mechanisms you had to go through to even get something in front of. Of President Biden. You're not allowed to talk to them about it. I'm pretty sure that's a large part of what happened. And then when it was just inevitable that they couldn't go out, they told Harris, we noticed for a fact, well, you can't do anything different. We did. You keep the same campaign manager, the same headquarters, the same artwork on the wall, the same phone number. And don't say you can do anything different. I. It's like, well, it's designed. We had to do five really stupid things to lose, and we probably did.

[Jessica Tarlev]

All five of them for 2016. There was a moment that you could isolate on the chart, the Comey letter. Right. Where Hillary was going to lose 11 days out. And the interview on the View where Kamala came on and they asked her.

[James Carville]

What do you think would be the biggest specific difference between your presidency and a bidency, a Biden presidency? Well, we're obviously two different people and we have a lot of shared life experiences, for example, the way we feel about our family and our parents and so on. But we're also different people and I will bring those sensibilities to how I lead.

[Jessica Tarlev]

And she was there to roll out a policy that was distinct from the Biden administration for people who received Medicaid, that you could get care in home for your parents. You want to talk about the sandwich generation? It was a good policy. Right. And now that we're talking about healthcare, it would have been even better. And she just, I guess, wasn't allowed to do it. And then I, I thought that she did a great job with the hand that she was dealt, more or less.

[James Carville]

But she wasn't dealt the hand she was dealt. A straight jacket, you can run, but you, this is what you gotta say. That moment. I think the people on the video, I know, I read this like a gas that she gave that answer. Would you have done something differently than.

[Jessica Tarlev]

President Biden during the past four years?

[James Carville]

There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of. You didn't have to be an experienced political operative to know. Oh, God, she didn't just say that, did she? Yeah, she did. She did, yeah.

[Jessica Tarlev]

And I work in conservative media, so they're always playing, you know, tape of the word salads and her being embarrassing or whatever. But, you know, it was about Donald Trump, the election, just with everything. He's larger than life. He eats up all the air in the room. And we didn't do good enough, I guess, in differentiating from the past.

[James Carville]

We didn't forget this was a change election. And we decided that we weren't not going to give them that, which. And we almost won.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah.

[James Carville]

Think of she just said, what policy I'm doing. So, you know, every President Obama was different, President Clinton, who was different President Carter. And these are three things that I want to do going forward. Anything like that, and then you get well, did you and the president ever disagree? And you could say, look, my counsel to him is my counsel to him, not people, but I want to talk about what I'm going to do differently. You could do anything like that, just throw any little seed to somebody and it glommed on to it, but didn't even give them that.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Do you think that the Biden team really would have been vengeful about that? Because now they're floating this notion that they're going to reveal embarrassing stories about her if she comes out against him. But in your experience, like, do you think they really would have come after her because that his legacy is, I don't want to say ruined, but certainly tarnished by what happened. And she was the one who could have saved it.

[James Carville]

If Biden gets out In September of 2023, the Democrats win, plain and simple. President Biden would justifiably be going around a country cutting ribbons at airports and overpasses and highways. And he would be going to Europe like Grant did. And whoever the modern Bismarck is, he would be visiting there. The University of Pennsylvania Biden center would have. Some would be swimming in contributions, understand that? And he would have earned every bit of it. He's one of the most accomplished politicians of my lifetime. But one decision and now nobody really wants to hear from him. And the last thing that the Democrats want to do today is revisit 2024. It was a nightmare. It's over. Turn the page. It's that simple. This is not an argument that Democrats want to have right now.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Do you think that means that the old guard in general needs to get out of the way as well, or this is a particular Biden Harris problem?

[James Carville]

I don't. I mean, I think the voters, first of all, being part of the old guard myself, will get out of the way pretty fast. You don't have to worry about it. You're talking about New York City, by the way. Manny really talked about the economy. That was his whole kind of thing. He's a pretty good interviewer, I gotta tell you. He doesn't get out of his kind of cost of living argument how hard, how difficult life is in the city. So why do you automatically assume that Madani is the future of something, but Spanberger and Sheryl are not part of the future? Understand that's a very coastal, it's a very New York centric view, but I'm not sure that that's the correct view. But there will be a person from that wing of the coalition that's going to run in 2028. And I think it's necessary that they do so these Democratic primary voters can weigh in on the direction they want their party to go in.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, I agree with you. I also think that it'll probably be a governor who ends up being the candidate. I think people will be, you know, looking for executive experience and the kind of deliverables that you just can't get in the same way if you're in the Senate or you're in Congress. And I'm excited about it. You know, your line, unsurprisingly, is better than mine, but our bench is very, very deep.

[James Carville]

Don't underestimate the Senate Democratic talent.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Okay?

[James Carville]

I don't get into sort of picking and choosing here, but does anybody really think that ruined Gallego is not going to be on the ticket by 2032? No. Okay. I think Chris Murphy is really talented. Guy Warnock is one of the better communicators I've ever seen. Of course, there's Democratic talent in governors and there's also. But there's a lot of Democratic talent in the Senate. And the point I'm trying to get across here is the Calvary is coming, okay? It's coming. It can't get hit. As I said in the piece, right now we just all about being against the big, beautiful bill. There's no person in a Democratic coalition that doesn't detest the big, beautiful bill. It unites every Democrat. And now come the 2028 cycle, did we flush it out. But not until then.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Okay? Hold our powder until then. One thing, it's an extension of the bill because there was tons of funding in it, obviously for ice, which now has a bigger budget than the idf, which feels extreme to me. I think immigration will still be a major flashpoint in the conversation. It's the economy, stupid. But there are a lot of people who certainly have not forgiven Democrats for how terribly immigration was mismanaged under the Biden administration until the last year, let's say, and haven't seen a thoughtful plan for how we would be managing the border and our asylum system. How do you think that we can do a better job of that? Are there any folks who you feel like are doing a decent job in speaking to this? And I'm not saying to me, it's not enough to just say, you know, we made a mistake. We have to be for strong border security and a humane process. Like there has to be something more for people that really care about immigration, like there was in the 90s, like Obama, like Hillary ran on as well.

[James Carville]

So you're right. The first part of the Biden administration was disaster. And the reason is he listened to those lefties. Okay, look, Bernie Sanders in 2016 was calling for open borders, okay? That's what they were basically advocating. And it turned into a policy disaster by the end of the Biden term border was perfectly fine. Now that's not the greatest thing to argue. The question then becomes when you talk about immigration policy, right, we'll talk about southern border. What about the 14 million people out of here? You could just come over some say, you know what, we're going to have a point system. So somebody's been in this country for 35 years, held the same job, raised three kids, they've all gone to college. That person gets 10 points, somebody's here for three months and they've committed three crimes to get no points. And what we need to have is acknowledge that people here, we don't need to be raiding Home Depot and rating this. Not every person that is in this country that is not documented is the same. We absolutely need a healthy immigration policy and we need to deal with the people that are already here, period. Indicates people, ah, it's not flushed out enough. What are you going to do about this? And say, look, my policy is this, we like immigration, we like immigrants. We're going to have an orderly process to get in the table and we're going to have an orderly process with the people that are already here. People like immigrants, they don't like dishonor. Got to understand that if you put you have a favorable, unfavorable opinion on immigrants, it'd be 2 to 1 favorable. I want to have immigration, I want to deal with it. That's here. They want to get rid of it all and we can't do that. We don't want to. It's not in our interest. And you can see his numbers on immigration are now not that good. Actually. No, they're going south. Because what he's given is actually some level more disorder.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, well, there's a frenziedness to how this is happening.

[James Carville]

But just tell people we want immigration and we want order and there's no reason that we cannot have both.

[Jessica Tarlev]

I feel like we would have gotten a lot of goodwill if the Blue City mayors had played ball and handed over criminals basically to begin and then Stephen Miller and Trump would have looked even worse. Even more quickly, frankly, people, why would.

[James Carville]

I go to school? Just scared even people out of here. Legally. I, I, I, my housekeeper, I make her tape a passport to her raid because if she got to go back to Guatemala, I'm going with her. The clown in Nebraska was saying a 28 year old who doesn't work, we're just going to give him health care. Okay. Of course, audience didn't even like that. If a 28 year old is here illegally. The last place. Were you ever 28?

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah.

[James Carville]

You never thought about getting sick? The last place you're going to be is, is in the emergency room. All right? It particularly if you got here legally. Shit, you die of a heart attack before you go to the.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah, it's a good point. But they have to smoke screen it and they have to talk about the five able bodied people that are on Medicaid that could be at work.

[James Carville]

They tried it in Arkansas, it was a disaster. The problem with Medicaid and health care costs is not 28 year olds. I mean some of their arguments, if you think about it, just beyond the argument they're making, it's really stupid.

[Jessica Tarlev]

I'm always astounded by it and I think, am I hearing the same thing other people are hearing? But we need to take one more quick break. Stay with us.

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[Jessica Tarlev]

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[James Carville]

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[Jessica Tarlev]

Welcome back. Before we go, I wanted to talk to you a little bit about the culture wars. I don't know if you've been paying attention to this viral American Eagle campaign starring actress Sydney Sweeney. It sparked days of online debate with some critics saying it hints at eugenics. Trump called it the hottest ad out there once he found out that Sydney Sweeney was a registered Republican in Florida. And then he's going after what he sees as woke brands like Jaguar and taking another jab at Taylor Swift. I know in the wake of the 2024 election that you weighed in a lot on the woke issues, right? How the Democratic Party stopped talking like normal human beings and was spending too much time paying attention to a very tiny percentage of the population. Do you think that we're doing any better on that front? Do you think what's going on with the Sydney Sweeney ad matters at all?

[James Carville]

So the actual date is April 27, 2021. When publicly said in Vox. This is killing us. There's so many things about it I've said defund the police are the three stupidest words in the history of the English language. I mean, I don't like to call it the W word because it was actually kind of started by Lead Belly Leadbetter, who was a jazz musician from Louisiana and Texas who dropped out in a song, I think, in the 1930s, that black people should be woke aware of the interactions with the police. It sounded like a pretty good idea to me. Okay, Pretty smart, Ledbetter. It was the whole identity language was bad for the party. Basically, what the identity left said. You have to look at me as a blank first, and I can't do that. I got to look at you as a human being first. I know if you're black or you female or whatever it is that you are, but humanity is our most important identity, and the public never liked it. And think of words they say. And this is why I think that the people that use the term communities of color actually think it's racist. And I'll tell you why. It is the assumption of educated white people that everybody that is not white is the same, which is idiotic. Yeah, it's idiotic to say that all white people are the same, but it's kind of, you know, like NPR people love this kind of language, and they don't Even know they don't know what they're saying. Remember when they were starting and the whole thing was going to be bipoc.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah.

[James Carville]

And they were just going to hoard all non white people in the same vet which is historically ignorant and politically stupid thing to do. And you know, we didn't. Now there's been a big bounce back. I mean the non whites, if you look at the latest data are moving away from, from Trump pretty quickly. But we did not do that well with not whites because I think a lot of that was the hangover of the identity area. Now you don't hear political people use this kind of language anymore. It hurt us in 2024. It did all kind of data on late breaking voters. The stuff was very sticky and you know, Alyssa Slatkin was pretty articulate about it who won a very, very close race in a state that Trump carried. They just need to talk like other people and the longer we get away from that, the less the effects are going to be. But it was one of the old time stupid political ideas in this century was we were going to change dictionaries in the way people spoke to each other. It we will do no such thing.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Do you think we are doing better in this way?

[James Carville]

I do, I don't. Did you, do you see anybody using that kind of language anymore?

[Jessica Tarlev]

No, I certainly think that it's better. I, you know, the Sydney Sweeney stuff I think is one of those more right wing stories where they're taking, you know, some people online who probably vote the same way that we do that are outraged about it and you know, saying it Hitlerian etc but in general I think we've been pretty good at being normal, which is a nice break.

[James Carville]

Don't talk about not being part of identity politics, just don't be part of identity politics. You don't have to say we'll have to go through it and relive it. It was just a giant stupid mistake that but some well meaning people thought it was the future of communications and it was just really, really stupid.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[James Carville]

But I don't want to drag it back up. Just let it go and to just talk like normal people.

[Jessica Tarlev]

I'm going to tell my colleagues that I just don't want to talk about it anymore and hopefully they'll let me off the hook.

[James Carville]

Well, that's what you do, you know, it's the whole thing. If you have the law, I'll get a law. If you have the facts, I'll get the facts. If you don't have either pound or take. You don't want to talk about the failure of this administration to deal with the cost of living. You don't want to talk about all of the things that they pass from gutting veterans benefits to rural hospitals to you name it, just do it like that. But they're going to keep trying to bring it up because it's their advantage to talk about it. It's not our advantage to talk about was a phase just like teenagers go through phases. But that was all it is. And you know they always kind of come back to the trends in sports. It's you know I hadn't thought about the 400 meters in the girls track meet but the athletic association I'm sure has ways to determine that we have equitable competition. I know that Senator Gallego, Governor Newsom, Congressman Bolton have all said that they all have daughters and they want them to compete to compete against other girls. That seems totally reasonable to me. Just state the problem. State where you are. And this is before the pandemic. I went to Amsterdam. You know what they don't have in Amsterdam? Airport Gender specific bathrooms. You go in the bathroom, you close the stall, you come out, you wash your hands. Did you go out? I was just kind of stunned because I'd like never seen that before and it was like zero issue. It was a cultural shock and I guess culturally we just can't do it or people would go crazy. But there's some gender about being not the most elegant topic. But it's true.

[Jessica Tarlev]

It's a reality for all of us.

[James Carville]

The point is, you know, whenever you want to we'll get back to the foreign meet us at the girls state track meet. But I, I, I agree with Santa G Governor Newsom, Carson Moton. I think that's a reasonable position.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Totally. And where 80% of the country is.

[James Carville]

Yes, he's a governor of Utah. They passed an anti trans sports thing. The guy conservative is the next guy. He's a big Mormon, Latter Day Saints. He said that that hundred thousand high school athletes in Utah, 4 trans. This is not my issue. Go vetoing this. Send it back to the Utah State Athletic association then let them deal with that. How many you know how many athletic governing bodies they are in the United States. You couldn't count them all.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah.

[James Carville]

I'm going to be concerned about how do we get young people motivated. Democrats raise taxes where they were pre trump on incomes over a half million dollars a year and use half that money, which is trillions of dollars to establish A first time home buyers mortgage relief fund. Because if you're, when you're 27 or 28, and you hear people, and particularly Democrats talking about, now it's the Republicans, they telling you how good the economy is, and they will say, what the shit is she or he talking about? I have no hope to buy a house. I have no hope to get an education. I'm living in my parents basement and they got every tax break in the world and they're telling me how good I got it. And we act like we don't see them. So when I was in law school, understand this, every month I got a check for $300 in 1971, I could do whatever I wanted with it. I could buy books, I could go to French Quarter, anything. Okay, that was what they call a GI Bill. I buy my first house, I am guaranteed the lowest mortgage rate there is. When I graduated from law school, 1973, there was one black and three females in a graduating class. We don't live in that world anymore. So we got to give these young people tools that my generation of young people had. And we gotta quit telling them how lucky they are to be living in this economy at this time. It's a statement that actually irritates them. It's an old rich guy's idea of like, this Guy started at McDonald's and he became the regional manager. Yeah, one out of 100,000. Most people that are sitting there for $9 an hour and not thinking they're gonna be the regional manager one day. The most important thing, if I ever left lesson is people want to be seen. Okay, that guy sees me or she sees me. And if you start talking about that, a young voter will say, well, at least they understand what I'm going through. And that was part of Trump's appeal with these rural whites. They didn't feel like Democrats saw them. And then Trump goes and promises a bunch of stuff. Stabs in their back, of course. But he did do the first necessary thing. He said, you exist, you're out there, I see you. If we don't do that with young people very much at all and just, you know, understand that just acknowledging the problem with an imperfect solution is 100 times better than denying the problem.

[Jessica Tarlev]

I love that. I can't thank you enough for your time. I don't know if you have anything that you want to wrap up with, but you've.

[James Carville]

I'll just say this. I go on any network, I go on any show, and I think the idea that we boycott any news outlet. I don't. I can go on somebody's show and I don't have to agree with them. But I, I, I, I just wish Democrats would just say, look, God damn it, we got swagger here. We got some strong candidates coming. We got a hell of an issue in this big, beautiful bill. We're going to romp and kick ass in Virginia and New Jersey. Let's go get them. Oh, James, approval rating. It says 31%. Well, yeah, because we lost. I don't like them either. Once you start winning, it's going to go up because what approval rating really lags is among Democrats. Because they don't like to lose.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Yeah. Okay, so no one likes to lose.

[James Carville]

Winning is everything stupid.

[Jessica Tarlev]

Winning is everything stupid. Thank you for your time. And that's it for this episode. Our producers are David Toledo and Eric Ginnikis. Our technical director is Drew Burrows. Going forward, you'll find raging moderates every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe to its own feed to hear exclusive interviews with sharp political minds. This week, I'm talking to Mallory McMorrow, who's running through the next senator of Michigan. And make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcast so you don't miss an episode. Thank you again, James.

[James Carville]

All right.