Raging Moderates: Trump’s Art of No Deals – Episode Summary

Podcast: The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Episode: Raging Moderates: Trump’s Art of No Deals
Release Date: July 9, 2025
Hosts: Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlev

1. Introduction

In this episode of Raging Moderates, Scott Galloway and co-host Jessica Tarlev delve into the latest developments in President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war strategy. The discussion centers on Trump's recent legislative maneuvers, the implications for international trade relations, the impact on the U.S. economy, and the broader political ramifications as midterm elections approach.

2. Trump’s Renewed Trade War

Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Scott Galloway initiates the conversation by outlining the recent escalation in Trump's trade policies. After a 90-day tariff pause yielding minimal agreements, the administration has resumed applying steep import duties, some as high as 70%, effective August 1.

Quote:
“Starting August 1, steep import duties, some as high as 70%, are set to kick in.”
— Scott Galloway [07:00]

Carl’s Critique: Jessica, referred to as Carl in the transcript, criticizes the administration's approach, describing the tariff letters as immature and ineffective. She argues that the strategy lacks seriousness and undermines existing trade agreements, such as those with South Korea.

Quote:
"It's the same as usual in that it just feels deeply unserious."
— Jessica Tarlev [08:49]

3. Economic Implications

Market Reactions: Scott expresses surprise at the market's muted response to the renewed tariffs, noting that contrary to his expectations of significant economic disruption, the markets have remained relatively stable.

Quote:
"The markets aren't worried about this. Nonsense."
— Scott Galloway [11:25]

Global Trade Shifts: He further explains how Trump's actions have inadvertently prompted other nations to renegotiate their trade relationships, leading to new deals among non-U.S. countries. This realignment diminishes the traditional dominance of the U.S. in global trade.

Quote:
"He's threatened between them and each other."
— Scott Galloway [13:48]

4. Public Opinion and Political Impact

Rising Disapproval: Jessica highlights the increasing disapproval of Trump's trade policies among Americans, noting that disapproval ratings have surged from 40% to 65%.

Quote:
"The American public knows that tariffs are attacks on them because they're people that go out and buy things."
— Jessica Tarlev [11:25]

Economic Policy Critique: Scott discusses Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious approach to interest rates, attributing the hesitation to the uncertainty introduced by the tariff policies. This stance has led to higher interest rates than would have been necessary under more stable economic policies.

Quote:
"Interest rates are probably 25 to 100bps higher than they would be had we had a responsible economic policy."
— Scott Galloway [17:14]

5. GOP’s Big Bill and Medicaid Cuts

Legislative Actions: Scott outlines the passage of a significant GOP bill that slashes $1.7 trillion in federal spending, extends tax cuts, and enacts major changes to safety net programs, including Medicaid. However, the administration faces challenges in selling the bill to the public, with widespread disapproval or indifference detected in polls.

Quote:
"Polls show most Americans either dislike the bill or don't know what's in it."
— Scott Galloway [28:35]

Impact on Medicaid: Jessica explains that the bill projects 12 million Americans likely losing Medicaid coverage. She criticizes the GOP for scheduling the loss of coverage post-midterm elections, thus avoiding immediate backlash.

Quote:
"They're going to have an election before you lose your Medicaid coverage."
— Jessica Tarlev [29:17]

Personal Narratives: Scott shares personal stories to highlight the human impact of Medicaid cuts, emphasizing how such policies undermine the opportunities and safety nets that have historically supported American success.

Quote:
"Every one of them is under attack. It is so disappointing that more people... can't do the math and reverse engineer this to one thing."
— Scott Galloway [40:02]

6. Democratic Party’s Response and Strategy

Need for Leadership: Carl emphasizes the necessity for the Democratic Party to find inspirational leaders who can effectively communicate the detrimental effects of GOP policies and connect with everyday Americans.

Quote:
"Democrats need an internal revolution at this point to inspire people and to make use of."
— Jessica Tarlev [46:02]

Embracing Moderates: Scott criticizes the Democratic Party’s handling of ideological consistency, arguing that the party often marginalizes moderates and demands unrealistic purity, which alienates potential allies.

Quote:
"The Democratic Party needs to do a better job of embracing imperfect allies."
— Scott Galloway [51:35]

Strategy Recommendations: Both hosts agree that Democrats must adopt a more strategic and inclusive approach, embracing diverse viewpoints and focusing on policies that resonate with a broader electorate to counteract the GOP’s populist tactics.

7. Elon Musk's America Party

Third Party Announcement: Scott introduces Elon Musk's announcement of a new political party, the America Party, intended to challenge the existing two-party system. Musk aims to target swing districts in the upcoming midterms, though both hosts express skepticism about its potential impact.

Quote:
"Elon Musk isn't worried about the deficit. He isn't worried about America's future. He's just, quite frankly, he's really butt hurt and he's angry and he's looking for revenge."
— Scott Galloway [59:52]

Potential as Spoilers: Carl analyzes the historical role of third parties in U.S. elections, concluding that while they rarely win, they can act as "spoilers" by siphoning votes from major party candidates, potentially altering election outcomes in swing states.

Quote:
"These third parties are not viable. The last time a third party won a state was Wallace, I think in 68. But they can be spoilers."
— Scott Galloway [60:08]

Conclusion on Musk’s Efforts: Both hosts agree that Musk's America Party is unlikely to make substantial changes to the political landscape, viewing it as more of a symbolic gesture driven by personal grievances rather than a strategic political movement.

8. Conclusion and Call to Action

Urgency for Democratic Response: The episode concludes with a strong call for the Democratic Party to innovate and inspire, leveraging stories and policies that highlight the negative impacts of GOP legislation. Scott and Jessica stress the importance of connecting policies to the lived experiences of Americans to rebuild trust and support ahead of the midterm elections.

Final Thoughts: Scott poignantly reflects on the erosion of America's foundational opportunities, urging listeners to recognize the moral and economic stakes at play. The hosts agree that without a concerted effort to counteract the GOP's policies and narratives, the fabric of American society stands to weaken significantly.

Quote:
"The very fabric of America is being torn apart. And I think that's important to emphasize."
— Jessica Tarlev [45:04]

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s Tariff Policy: Renewed and escalated tariffs aimed at multiple countries, viewed as ineffective and damaging to international trade relations.
• Economic Impact: Surprisingly muted market reactions; however, long-term implications include strained global alliances and increased economic uncertainty.
• Public Opinion: Growing disapproval of GOP trade policies and the big legislative bill, with significant impacts on Medicaid coverage.
• Democratic Strategy: A critical need for the Democratic Party to find inspiring, inclusive leadership and effectively communicate the adverse effects of current GOP policies.
• Elon Musk’s Third Party: Viewed skeptically as unlikely to alter the two-party dominance but recognized for highlighting the dissatisfaction among political independents.
• Moral and Economic Concerns: Emphasis on how GOP policies undermine American opportunities and social safety nets, calling for a reaffirmation of America's foundational values.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

1. “Starting August 1, steep import duties, some as high as 70%, are set to kick in.”
   — Scott Galloway [07:00]

2. "It's the same as usual in that it just feels deeply unserious."
   — Jessica Tarlev [08:49]

3. “The markets aren't worried about this. Nonsense.”
   — Scott Galloway [11:25]

4. "They're going to have an election before you lose your Medicaid coverage."
   — Jessica Tarlev [29:17]

5. "Every one of them is under attack. It is so disappointing that more people... can't do the math and reverse engineer this to one thing."
   — Scott Galloway [40:02]

6. "The Democratic Party needs to do a better job of embracing imperfect allies."
   — Scott Galloway [51:35]

7. "Elon Musk isn't worried about the deficit. He isn't worried about America's future. He's just, quite frankly, he's really butt hurt and he's angry and he's looking for revenge."
   — Scott Galloway [59:52]

8. "The very fabric of America is being torn apart. And I think that's important to emphasize."
   — Jessica Tarlev [45:04]

This episode of Raging Moderates provides a comprehensive analysis of the current U.S. trade policy under Trump, its economic and social implications, and the necessary strategic shifts required by the Democratic Party to address the challenges ahead. Through personal anecdotes, critical assessments, and strategic recommendations, Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlev offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the evolving political and economic landscape.