Podcast Summary: The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

Episode: The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Jessica Tarlov (filling in for Scott Galloway)
Guest: Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group

Overview

This episode centers around the Eurasia Group's annual "Top Risks" report for 2026. Host Jessica Tarlov and guest Ian Bremmer discuss the most pressing geopolitical threats for the coming year, including the United States’ shifting role on the world stage, the “Donroe Doctrine” under Trump, the global AI and energy race, state capitalism, and the unraveling of European unity. Through the conversation, they examine the consequences of America's changing priorities, the knock-on effects for allies and adversaries, and the broader implications for global stability and democracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Introduction and Context (01:19)

• Jessica Tarlov introduces Ian Bremmer and the main themes: US foreign intervention, Trump’s evolving doctrine, and the world's power struggles across AI and energy.

1. Venezuela, the Donroe Doctrine, and Projection of US Power

Segment Begins: 02:46

• US Operation to Capture Maduro

  • “It was a staggering military success operationally. The Russians wish they could have pulled this off.”—Ian Bremmer (03:23)
  • The Trump administration's operation to bring Nicolás Maduro to the US was executed swiftly with no American casualties and is seen as an operational victory.
  • Raises questions about long-term responsibility: “If you end up breaking it, you have responsibility. And even if Trump doesn’t believe that...that will be seen to be true by a lot of people.” (05:38)

• Donroe Doctrine Explained

  • The US under Trump is asserting itself as the arbiter of the Western Hemisphere’s future.
  • Questions of governance in Venezuela post-Maduro, and the continued presence of foreign influence (Russia, China, Iran) in the region.
  • “We may need to start rethinking how we talk about adversaries.…For Trump, the top adversary of the United States are his political opponents in the United States.” —Ian Bremmer (07:17)

2. The Greenland Gambit and Relations with European Allies

Segment Begins: 10:03

• Trump’s Desire for Greenland

  • Serious intentions for US to acquire Greenland, bypassing Denmark entirely, despite Denmark being a close NATO ally.
  • “Why are you destroying decades of goodwill with committed allies?... It feels like madness, but it is the actual plan.” —Ian Bremmer (13:17)
  • No plan for military invasion; rather, intention is to use incentives, threats, and disinformation.

• Broader Foreign Policy Approach

  • Trump’s approach is increasingly transactional and short-term, preferring bilateral deals over multilateral alliances.
  • “Do you feel like the Donroe Doctrine is turning us into just a regional superpower versus a global superpower?”—Jessica Tarlov (16:03)
  • Bremmer disagrees, noting US military and intelligence reach still extends globally.

3. Impact on Global Competitors and Allies

Segment Begins: 18:19

• Precedent for China and Russia
  • “I don't think that America’s engagement in the law of the jungle emboldens bad actors to act bad. They're bad actors. That means they act bad.” —Ian Bremmer (21:01)
  • Main impact is not to adversaries, but US allies who now feel they must hedge against American unreliability.
  • Allies like Canada, European nations, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are adjusting expectations and policies accordingly.

4. US Political Revolution — Top Global Risk

Segment Begins: 25:49

• Ongoing “Political Revolution” in the US

  • Not a possibility—already happening, according to Bremmer.
  • Trump aims to control the administrative state, remove checks and balances, and “ensure that the principal enemies of Trump, and therefore the United States...can no longer come to power.” —Ian Bremmer (26:51)
  • Comparison to past global revolutions (China under Deng, USSR under Gorbachev), but US version more about political structure than economics.

• Prospects for Success & Institutional Resilience

  • Bremmer is skeptical Trump will succeed, citing partial constraints from US institutions so far.
  • Media panic often outpaces real erosion, but a steady trajectory of norm-breaking is clear.

• Quote:
  “People’s hair is on fire all the time.…In his first term, almost none of his acts were inherently revolutionary. Increasingly, they are.” —Ian Bremmer (30:04)

5. State Capitalism: “American Characteristics”

Segment Begins: 31:14

• What Does “State Capitalism” Mean in the US?

  • Direct intervention in private sector decisions (e.g., US Steel, Nvidia).
  • Increasing personalization of industrial policy well beyond strategic sectors.
  • Not a true economic revolution, but significant incremental uncertainty and cost.

• Long-Term Effects & Political Norms

  • Both parties likely to embrace these new powers once executive precedent is set.
  • “You break these norms and it’s a slippery slope.…Trump is not the cause. Trump is a symptom. He’s a beneficiary, and he’s an accelerant.” —Ian Bremmer (35:23)
  • US remains deeply powerful economically and militarily, but with one of the most dysfunctional political systems among advanced economies.

6. The Energy & AI Race: US vs China

Segment Begins: 37:39

• Energy Strategy and AI Leadership

  • China dominates in new energy infrastructure (the “electric stack”).
  • The US is betting on smarter AI models, but lacks long-term coherence in energy strategy.
  • “Washington is asking the world to buy 20th-century energy, while Beijing offers 21st-century infrastructure.” (38:15, paraphrased)
  • US retains an edge in AI innovation, but risks falling behind due to lack of synchronized long-term investment and policy.

• Risks of Short-termism

  • America’s “short-term political system” undermines continuity, especially compared to China’s directed investment.
  • AI powerhouses require cheap, scalable energy systems—currently, China is better positioned.
  • “American AI is today more advanced than Chinese AI, but the energy that you need to power it is being developed at scale...by China.”—Ian Bremmer (39:53)

7. The AI Bubble & Societal Risks

Segment Begins: 44:54

• Commercial Pressure and Societal Impact

  • AI development is occurring outside regulatory oversight; immense pressure for commercialization may drive harmful unintended consequences.
  • “These AIs...are programmed to make sure that you are engaging with them...even though they have no affect whatsoever. There are people like this. We call them sociopaths.” —Ian Bremmer (47:19)
  • B2B AI use brings productivity gains, but consumer-facing AI risks rapidly spreading disinformation and social harm.

• US and European Inaction

  • China is the only major actor putting regulatory foot on the gas for consumer AI; Europe turning away from regulation to chase growth; US stuck in the “Wild West.”

8. Europe Under Siege: Populism, Weak Governance, and Russia

Segment Begins: 49:35

• Europe’s Political Fragmentation

  • France, Germany, UK—weak governments, rising populism, and little margin for reform.
  • “The center cannot hold.” (49:48)
  • Long-term neglect of growth, defense, and competitive investment catches up as Russia and the US stress the system.
  • Brussels’ power weakened by internal and external forces; populist parties gaining traction.

• Why Washington Prefers a Fragmented Europe

  • “Trump likes leaders that he likes...He doesn’t want to deal with the world’s largest common market that can engage in regulatory processes and trade processes...” —Ian Bremmer (52:21)
  • Short-term “divide and conquer” world view, not interested in international law or shared values.

9. Russia’s “Second Front” Against NATO

Segment Begins: 55:44

• Escalating Hybrid Warfare
  • Russia intensifies asymmetric attacks: cyber, sabotage, drones, and attempted assassinations in frontline NATO countries.
  • NATO states increasingly discussing counter-offensive operations even without full US support.
  • “Russia isn’t just at war in Ukraine. Russia is actually engaged in a shadow war in NATO.” —Ian Bremmer (57:29)

10. Hope vs. Optimism: Is There a Path Forward?

Segment Begins: 58:14

• Why Ian Bremmer Remains Hopeful
  • Not seeing a slide into world war; instead, increased resilience and hedging by US allies and global south.
  • Growth and outreach in nations like India, constructive diplomacy from Gulf States.
  • US political shock may lead to new consensus and alternative ways of governance.
  • “When human beings get together, especially when it’s hard and when suddenly we break things, that’s when we all pay attention.” —Ian Bremmer (61:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “For Trump, the top adversary of the United States are his political opponents in the United States.” —Ian Bremmer (07:17)
• “Why are you destroying decades of goodwill with committed allies...It feels like madness, but it is the actual plan.” —Ian Bremmer (13:17)
• “Trump is not the cause. Trump is a symptom. He’s a beneficiary, and he’s an accelerant.” —Ian Bremmer (35:23)
• “American AI is today more advanced than Chinese AI, but the energy that you need to power it is being developed at scale and cheaper...by China.” —Ian Bremmer (39:53)
• “These AIs...are programmed to make sure that you are engaging with them...even though they have no affect whatsoever. Now, by the way, there are people like this. We call them sociopaths.” —Ian Bremmer (47:19)
• “Russia isn’t just at war in Ukraine. Russia is actually engaged in a shadow war in NATO.” —Ian Bremmer (57:29)
• “I’m not optimistic, but I’m hopeful...When human beings get together, especially when it’s hard and when suddenly we break things, that’s when we all pay attention.” —Ian Bremmer (61:00)

Key Timestamps

• 02:46 — Start of discussion: Venezuela operation and Donroe Doctrine
• 10:03 — Greenland and US-Europe rift
• 16:03 — Regional vs. global superpower: Donroe Doctrine’s limits
• 18:19 — US foreign moves and their impact on adversaries and allies
• 25:49 — Political revolution as top global risk
• 31:14 — State capitalism and its future in US politics
• 37:39 — Energy and AI race: US vs China
• 44:54 — AI bubble, social risks, and regulatory contrasts
• 49:35 — Europe’s political fragmentation and siege mentality
• 55:44 — Russia’s hybrid warfare and second front
• 58:14 — Closing optimism and hope for global adaptation

Overall Tone and Conclusion

The conversation is candid, informed, and urgently relevant—often blending dark humor with clear-eyed analysis. Both Tarlov and Bremmer maintain a tone of urgency, skepticism, and occasional optimism, focusing on how evolving global risks are shaped less by single actors or dramatic turns than by the slow burn of shifting norms, eroding alliances, and disruptive technology.

For listeners seeking a comprehensive, accessible overview of 2026’s global risk landscape, this episode is both engrossing and sobering—ending, if not with optimism, then with genuine hope for constructive action amid uncertainty.