The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Episode: The State of Play After the Iran-Israel War — with Karim Sadjadpour
Release Date: June 28, 2025

Introduction

In this bonus episode of The Prof G Pod, host Scott Galloway engages in a profound discussion with Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in Iran and U.S. foreign policy. The conversation delves deep into the recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the historical context of their relations, the future of U.S. diplomacy in the region, and the broader implications for Middle Eastern stability.

Historical Context of Iran-Israel Relations

[03:46] Scott Galloway opens the dialogue by expressing frustration over the murky narratives surrounding the recent conflict between Iran and Israel. He states:

“Have we set the nuclear program back seven days or seven years? I literally don't know who to turn to.”

Karim Sadjadpour responds by providing a rich historical backdrop:

[04:00] “These two countries, Iran and Israel, in my view, are actually more natural partners than they are natural adversaries. There's an ancient history of affinity between the Persians and the Jews... Prior to the 1979 revolution, the two countries had a good partnership.”

He further explains the seismic shift post-1979 revolution, highlighting Iran's transition from a U.S.-allied monarchy to an anti-American theocracy under Ayatollah Khomeini, establishing three ideological pillars:

“Death to America, death to Israel, and the mandatory hijab...”

Current State of the Ceasefire and Its Implications

[05:24] Galloway shares his perspective on the resilience of the Iranian regime:

“The war will continue so long as you have a regime in Iran whose entire identity is premised on replacing Israel with Palestine.”

Karim elaborates on the temporary nature of the ceasefire and the underlying discontent within Iran:

[06:43] “If you were a supporter of the government... it's not a popular regime, then you have even more fodder to hate America and Israel... The vast majority of Iranians... want to be South Korea, they don't want to be living under North Korea.”

He references past events like the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and the Mahsa Amini protests to illustrate the persistent undercurrent of dissent and the regime's instability.

Leadership and the Future of Iran's Theocracy

Galloway probes into the sustainability of Iran's current leadership:

[10:57] “What do you think the next generation looks like in terms of the regime? And is this a house of cards with an 85-year-old? What happens when he dies?”

Karim offers insightful analysis on succession challenges:

[11:15] “Ayatollah Khamenei is actually now 86. He's the longest-serving autocrat in the world... What happens after the supreme leader's passing? More likely we're going to see someone with a military and intelligence background, not someone wearing a turban.”

He draws parallels with Ibn Khaldun's theory, emphasizing the generational cycles of leadership and the potential for significant upheaval following Khamenei's eventual departure.

Impact of Global Events on Middle Eastern Dynamics

[15:07] Galloway introduces a thesis on the influence of the Ukrainian army's resilience on Middle Eastern geopolitics:

“If Russia had barreled into Kyiv... we might have seen different outcomes in the Middle East.”

Karim concurs, expanding on the broader implications of leadership and regional power dynamics:

[22:56] “Leadership has a profound impact on history. President Zelenskyy is someone who has played an incredibly important role in the history of his nation.”

He reflects on Henry Kissinger's evolving views on the role of individuals in shaping history, underscoring the importance of strong leadership in geopolitical outcomes.

U.S. Foreign Policy and Security Apparatus

Galloway questions the efficacy of the U.S. foreign policy machinery:

[29:51] “What is your sense of the current state of our security apparatus and our foreign policy engine?”

Karim praises the excellence of U.S. military institutions but critiques the bureaucratic hurdles that deter talented individuals:

[30:41] “It's ripe for disruption from a company like Palantir... the pace of professional advancement can be quite slow.”

He highlights the demoralization within government ranks due to outdated processes and the diminishing attractiveness of government roles compared to lucrative private sector opportunities.

Prospects for Stability and Reform in the Middle East

[36:03] Galloway inquires about general themes for the region's future. Karim outlines a bleak outlook without significant regime changes:

“This is a region which is never going to experience real stability and security so long as you have a government in Iran whose organizing principle is death to America and death to Israel.”

He projects a potential reckoning in Iran, likening it to the late-stage Soviet Union, and discusses the uncertain future of Saudi Vision 2030, emphasizing the delicate balance between modernization and social stability.

Key Figures Hindering Peace

Galloway directly questions whether the removal of key leaders would pave the way for peace:

[39:45] “Isn't there a much greater likelihood of peace and stability without Netanyahu or Khomeini?”

Karim adds Mahmoud Abbas to the list of obstacles:

[39:55] “Mahmoud Abbas will have to go. So long as Prime Minister Netanyahu is in power, that normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to happen.”

He underscores the intertwined leadership issues that perpetuate conflict and impede diplomatic breakthroughs.

U.S. Intervention and Its Success

During a lightning round, Galloway asks Karim to assess the likelihood of further U.S. intervention in the Middle East:

[41:18] Karim believes additional intervention is probable if key concerns remain unaddressed, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program.

When asked about the success of attacks on nuclear facilities:

[41:47] Karim is skeptical, noting historical precedents where military interventions in the Middle East often inflict more harm than good.

Karim Sadjadpour's Journey and Advice for Young Scholars

In the closing segment, Galloway invites Karim to share his career trajectory and advice for aspiring international affairs professionals.

[43:09] Karim recounts his path from a disinterested youth to a passionate Middle East expert, emphasizing the transformative impact of living abroad and real-world experiences.

He advises young listeners to:

1. Seek Ground Experience: “Going abroad is... one way to distinguish yourself.”
2. Learn and Master Languages: Vital for deep cultural and political understanding.
3. Read Extensively: “Read books, read history... not just tweets or TikTok videos.”

Karim emphasizes that genuine passion and dedication to understanding complex international dynamics are crucial for a meaningful career in this field.

Conclusion

Scott Galloway wraps up the episode by commending Karim for his insightful analysis and honest discourse. He acknowledges Karim's reputation as an honest broker amidst the "muddled messages" surrounding Middle Eastern conflicts, expressing hope for future discussions.

[48:56] Scott concludes:

“Your name came up independently from different sources two or three times. So whatever you're doing, you've established a reputation and is a real honest broker. So well done.”

Karim reciprocates the appreciation, underscoring the importance of informed and passionate voices in navigating international relations.

Key Takeaways

• Historical Partnerships vs. Modern Adversaries: Iran and Israel had natural affinities historically, which were upended by the 1979 revolution.

• Leadership Matters: The personalities and political ambitions of leaders like Trump, Netanyahu, and Khamenei significantly shape geopolitical outcomes.

• Internal Dissent in Iran: Despite temporary rallying during conflicts, deep-seated discontent and economic mismanagement threaten the longevity of Iran’s theocratic regime.

• U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges: While U.S. military institutions remain strong, bureaucratic inefficiencies and decreasing allure of government roles hinder effective foreign policy execution.

• Future Stability Depends on Regime Changes: Sustainable peace in the Middle East is unlikely without significant changes in leadership within Iran, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority.

• Advice for Aspiring Scholars: Gaining ground experience abroad, mastering languages, and extensively reading history are essential for those pursuing careers in international affairs.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the nuanced discussion between Scott Galloway and Karim Sadjadpour, providing listeners with a thorough understanding of the current state and future prospects of Iran-Israel relations and broader Middle Eastern geopolitics.