← The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
What SpaceX's IPO Means for Tech Stocks, and Coping With Panic Attacks
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Welcome to Office Hours with Prof. G. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question for next time, you can send a voice recording to office hours of propagmedia.com Again, that's officehoursofgmedia.com let's bust right into it. Our first question comes from a listener who emailed us. Hi Scott, the overall stock market has held steady, but tech stocks have taken a bit of a beating. Based on things you've said, I'm thinking that some folks have pulled money out of their tech stocks to invest in SpaceX. If this is the case, do you think the trend will continue with the anthropic and OpenAI IPOs? And if so, what do you think the overall effect will be on tech stocks for the rest of the year and maybe into next? Could this be a tipping point that finally causes many tech stocks to really fail? Okay, just some data on SpaceX. The IPO price at $135 a share open to $150. I think it peaked at about 210 or 230, reaching a $2.8 trillion market cap. That momentum did kind of come back. The stock has fallen every trading day since hitting its peak. In a single day, SpaceX shed $400 billion in market cap, making it the second largest one day wipeout in stock Market history, but again, often enormous base. By Friday, June 26, shares closed at $153, reducing the company's market cap to about 2 trillion. In less than two weeks, investors have watched nearly 750 billion disappeared. Even after slight gains, the stock remains more than 30% below its high. The reality is it's still above its IPO and it went way up and it's come down, but it's still an enormous success story. And the reason it's lost $600 billion is because it had a $2.5 trillion market cap to begin with. So you'd think that its weak aftermarket performance could make boards and underwriters more cautious about timing. I don't know. Is that true? They got a pop. They got a pop. Basically your IPO is a branding event. Once in a lifetime branding event. All people care about was it was up. That gets enormous News. And essentially J.P. morgan and Goldman Sachs are now really not bankers, they're engineers and that is they engineer scarcity and manufacturer scarcity such that these things get 20%. I literally predicted it would get a first day pop of 20%. I think it was up 21 or 23. So some of the most recent valuations by companies that have confidentially filed for their IPO OpenAI at $850 billion, Anthropic at 965, which is incredible that there's been such. I call it the flippening. SpaceX's weak aftermarket performance could make boards and underwriters more cautious about timing OpenAI and Anthropic's IPOs. Is that true? I'm not sure. I think it probably encourages them. If SpaceX can go out at 110 times revenues, you're going to love Anthropic at 40. On Thursday, June 25, the New York Times reported that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, citing market volatility and SpaceX's post IPO decline. I think that's a lie. I think that OpenAI is going to have to reflect or show numbers that they are losing momentum fast and that their decline in growth cannot justify the spending, the CapEx commitments they've made. You're going to see not only momentum shift to anthropic, but you're going to see that OpenAI lacks, I wouldn't call it business discipline, but it's just a drunk spender and their numbers will reflect that. And I think their CFO and the bankers came back and said, we need to get our house in order. What does that mean I think OpenAI is going to go through a pretty serious cost reduction effort over the last six months and clean up for it to then go public. The Wall Street Journal projects Anthropic could go public as early as this fall. How are these IPOs expected to impact the market? Before SpaceX went public, senior research analyst at Pittsburgh Harrison Rolfs predicted pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and large cap growth mandates will need to fund IPO allocations by selling Nvidia, Microsoft, Google and Meta, suggesting that participation in these large IPOs may come at the expense of existing big tech holdings. I think it's more likely that you're going to see pressure on Bitcoin because I think a lot of the people who want to be part of this generation of innovation, specifically Musk, are the same people who piled into crypto and they're going to pile out. Crypto, I think is off 50% from its high. I think it's gonna come under further stress the rest of the year. Research from Investment advisory firm GMO found that every 1% increase in the market cap in a given month has historically been associated with a 7 1/2% decrease in stock market subsequent 12 month return. In sum, we're in 99, we're firmly in 99 now and typically returns for the next several years aren't very good. The problem is sometimes or oftentimes when guys like me say we're in 99, we're actually in 97 and the NASDAQ doubles from here. If you apply that historical relationship with the anticipated combined size of the SpaceX OpenAI anthropic IPOs which represent approximately 5% of publicly traded US equity, once they're listed, we could see a 40% decline in the broader stock market over the next year, one, three or five years. The problem is timing. And that leads me to what do you do? The reality is, I think it is very hard to time the markets and if you try and sell and get back in, that's hard because when you sell, if you fortunate to have experienced gains, you're going to pay taxes and then you effectively have to buy back in at 23% less just to break even because you're taking a tax it, you're triggering a tax event. It's also very hard to time the market. So what do you do if you think that the US market and the NASDAQ and AI stocks are overvalued? Just make sure you're really well diversified and diversification has taken on a new meaning because you're no longer diversified when you're just in the S and P because 40% of the S&P is just 10 companies. So what I tell people to do is not to try and time the markets but to make sure they're diversified across asset classes. You can start looking at fixed income again which is actually paying you for some risk. And more importantly across geographies. I've been investing, divesting some of my US holdings and going into Europe because Europe's been sort of left for dead. And I find that's when you buy. When the Florida real estate market was left for dead, that's when you moved in. So do you try and time the market? Good luck with that. What I would say is look at your portfolio and decide where they're where. You are way too concentrated and think about diversifying. But again, are we in 97 or 99? I think the answer is yes. And as my friend Barry Ritholtz said at Ritholtz Capital Management or Ritholtz Advisors, anyway, it says hedge fund. If you just bought stocks on the day they hit all time highs, you would be, you would have beaten the market. That there's something to the momentum here. There have been some losses around big tech. Apple had its worst trading day of 2026 after they announced price increases. Alphabet fell 7%, Meta dropped 5%. But again it's all, all roads lead to the same place here. Low cost index funds. Look at your total net worth. And the older you get, the more diversified you want to get. And also as you have more and more gains, the you want to pull your horns in and diversify even more. So I've enriched three times which means I've lost it twice. Why did I lose it where my business is? Bad businesses. No, I didn't learn the key to maintaining wealth and that is diversification. Thanks for the question. Question number two comes from John who texted us. Hey Scott, Love office hours. One of my favorite pods. Question what is the best way to approach or interact with celebrities or CEOs that I might see in public? What's your advice for keeping an interaction brief or respectful without coming off as wanting something? Thanks. It's situational. So I had dinner with a celebrity the other night. I'm a big fan of this guy and he's a legitimate movie star. And the waitress, we're at a members only club and the waitress looked around and said to him I'm not allowed to do this but I just have to say because of. And she named a series he just Directed. I think about consciousness differently. I'm like, well, that's weird. But anyways. And about five minutes later, a guy came up to me and said nice things about me and my book and asked to take a picture. And I said yes. And security swarmed on him because it's one of those places you're not supposed to take pictures, which I get. But anyways, funny fact about quote, unquote, fame. And that is for every person that approaches somebody, that means a hundred people recognize that person. Because if you think about the number of times you recognize someone and the actual number of times you go up to them, it's probably, on average, less than 1%. It's changed my behavior because I feel as if everywhere I go and I'm not celebrity status yet, but I do have a footprint. I feel as if I'm being watched, which is kind of weird. Having said that, I'm not speaking on behalf of famous people. I'm just speaking on behalf of me. I like it when people come up to me and say hi. Generally, I find they're interesting, they're super nice, and it kind of restores my faith in humanity because I get attacked a lot online and most of the really vile shit is bots courtesy of the GRU or the CCP or fucking social media or some cowardly, cowardly VC that's hired a PR firm to deploy thousands of bots and attack people for insulting the septic tank that is their portfolio of garbage. Anyway, little anger, little anger. But there's so much vile shit. And the thing that's really disappointing is most of it isn't even real. That I generally find when you get out into the real world, people just couldn't be nicer. And I like it when people come up, so I don't mind at all. Are there times when I'm at dinner, like last night, I was with my son, and someone comes up and we're sort of in the middle of a conversation. Yeah, that's not ideal. But on the whole, it's really lovely. So what's your question? How do you approach somebody? I think a fairly. First off, I think you make an assessment. Do they look like they're in an intense conversation with their partner or somebody? Do they look like. I mean, if they're sitting down, eating at a restaurant, I think that's a little interruptive. I can tell you what I do. I never used to approach people, ever. But after I got some awareness and people approached me and I realized I liked it, that what I do is If I see someone I know, I don't go up and start yapping at them. I try and assess whether it looks like they're in a confidential setting or an open setting. And I just say the following. Hey, love your work. That's all I say, hey, love your work. And if they then give you body language like, oh, great, how are you? And then you maintain the conversation, otherwise you just sort of keep moving. But I think to say somebody out to someone out in the wild, hey, I love your work. I just think that's hard to. I think that's hard to get angry at. I was with Sean Penn a few weeks ago, and we went to go grab a drink after, and he was freaked out because we were going into a place and it was during the Tribeca Film Festival, and he got out of the car and was down the block, and he was like, I don't know. And I'm like, why is this guy so worried? And Sean Penn is obviously like, I mean, you know, I'm Vasco da Gama that no one's ever heard of, and he's Neil Armstrong. I mean, he started walking and I'm not exaggerating, about 50 paparazzi and people seeking autographs swarmed him. And some of them were quite physical. Like, they wouldn't get out of his way asking him for an autograph. When he said no, he just wanted to get in the restaurant. By the way, Absolutely no one. No one even, like, glanced at me. People were getting in his face, being very aggressive. Obviously, that's not cool. And I don't think you'd ever want to make anyone feel uncomfortable. But going to how you approach quote, unquote, celebrities, I think you make an assessment around whether they're in a situation that feels confidential and, like, they don't want to be bothered, and if so, stay the fuck away. But also if they're not walking around somewhere public, hey, I love your work. I think that is an easy opening. And then just as when you approach a romantic interest at a bar or someone you're attracted to, where are you guys from? You know, I love your dress. Can I buy you a drink? And at that moment, you're going to get vibe back. And based on that vibe, you know whether to continue the conversation or to politely excuse yourself. And I think it's the same way when you make an approach on a celebrity. Love your work, get a sense for the vibe, and there's nothing wrong with just moving on. And if they don't look as if they're open to meeting someone new, but it's situational and I guess I would just say use your best judgment. But I can tell you and this celebrity I was with Wednesday night when people came up to him and said I love your work, I think he liked it. I don't think it bothered him. People didn't get in his face, didn't get in his way. So long winded way of saying hey I love your work and then assess the vibe and then move on. Or if that person seems up to it, engage in a conversation. Thanks for the question. We'll be right back after a quick break.
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Oncology is a key focus for Pfizer. With 40% of R& D devoted to the oncology space, Pfizer is committed to advancing cancer care for your patients. Learn more@cancer.pfizer.com welcome back. Question number three comes from anonymous in North Carolina. Hello Anonymous. Hi Prav g. I'm a 30 year old working in tech. The last 3 years felt mostly up and to the right, but this year has been much harder. The end of a relationship with a woman I thought might become my wife and the mother of my children ended up and challenges at work have made me question whether my company is still the right place for my future. The stress built to the point that I recently ended up in the ER with a racing heart and shortness of breath. The diagnosis? A stress induced panic attack. I'm embarrassed by it, but your openness about your own panic attacks has made me feel less alone. My question is, when did your panic attacks begin? What have you done to help prevent them? And when they do happen, how do you get through them? Okay, first off, I'll come back to my favorite topic, me. But let me give you a little bit of data from experts on how to handle this. So an immediate coping strategy is what's called the 333 technique. It consists of three steps. Identify three things you can visually see a pen, cloud, et cetera. Hear. Identify three distinct sounds so you can hear, traffic your own breathing, et cetera, and move three parts of your body. I like what Andrew Huberman does, the breath thing. You go breathe in, fill your lungs and then one more deep breath on top of it and then let it out slowly. Let's do that together. Three times. That supposedly calms the nervous system down also. So, okay, my panic attacks, I think mine are largely genetic. My dad suffered from what's called petite mal, which is I guess kind of a low grade epilepsy. And when I was, I think 11 or 12, we were watching a film on the Holocaust and there was some pretty explicit imagery. And I fainted and I woke up with a semicircle around me. And then it's not the fainting that freaks you out, it's the panic every time you're in a stressful situation. I remember going with friends to see the movie Tommy. And when there were some intense scenes, I had to get up and leave. And all my friends were like, what the fuck's going on? I'm like, I couldn't say, well, I'm worried I'm gonna faint because, you know, you're trying to be a man at 13 or 14. And I found myself sort of evolving or avoiding all intense situations. And anytime I was in an intense situation wondering, am I gonna faint? That runs through my family and it's happened to some other people in my family. And I think it's mostly genetic and inherited from my dad's side of the family. And that has breached or seeped into my public speaking life. Where on a. I think it's about 0.3% of the time or 300 times, one every 300 times. I speak about a hundred times a year and once every two, three years now. It used to be kind of once a year I have a panic attack I can't figure out. I've tried to reverse engineer and normalize for different things and isolate what the causes are. It's not size of a crowd. It happened to me at DLD. I was on stage in front of 400 people and I started gulping and gasping for air and swallowing for air and I had to put my hands on my knees and the whole audience went quiet. I think they thought I was having a heart attack and they wanted to take me to the hospital. As you can imagine, really good for your self esteem. And for the next month I freak out about having panic attacks. I medicate. I don't do it as much anymore, but I will sometimes take an alpha. What do they call it is an alpha blocker or a beta blocker. I forget, but they're concert pianists and violinists take them. It basically, it reduces the sympathetic or the fight or flight reaction. If your job requires you to be sort of in intense situations every once in a while, take a beta blocker. Propanopolis, the one I take also, and I'm not proud of this. The first time I went on Bill Maher, I was so fucking nervous that I shotgunned a beer. And occasionally if I'm nervous, I'll say, can I have a beer? And I down a beer. I think that's called functioning alcoholism. But anyways, it works for me. The real treatment is practice. And that is as I do 1, 2, 3, 4 speaking engagements a week now, especially if I'm teaching. I just sort of. I have so much practice. I don't think I've had a real panic attack in about two or three years, but they're really common. About 11%, or 1 in 10 adults in the US experience one annually, and as many as a third have experienced a panic attack at some point in their life. At one point in my life I was fainting all over the place and it was really distressing for a 12 year old, right? I fainted when my mom got her ears pierced. I fainted when I had a VD test when I was applying to be a sperm donor at UCLA and I thought they're never going to want my fainty sperm anyway. Panic attacks one practice Just push through it. Try and put yourself in uncomfortable situations, recognizing it's going to be hard. Even if it's toastmasters getting up and speaking. Whatever it is, try not to retreat too much. I did treat it with medication for a while when I felt it coming on or I was just freaking out about going on stage. The first few times after a panic attack, I took a beta blocker and alcohol. Probably not a good idea, but I'm just being very transparent here. And like most things, the only thing that's really worked is time and practice. But also realize if they happen, people go, they're nervous or they're having a panic attack and then they go back to thinking about themselves. So if you've had a panic attack, recognize, okay, try and address it. But realize everyone else is going back to thinking about their own shit and you just shouldn't be that embarrassed about it. I've had panic attacks in front of hundreds, hundreds of people and I still get invited to speak. I still get paid a shit ton of money to speak, and I think a certain amount of vulnerability actually makes you more likable. So I just Again, they're common, they're addressable. Find your own means of addressing them, but do not withdraw. Face the monster and attack it and get through it. Thanks for the question. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehoursoftgemedia.com Again, that's officehoursoftymedia.com or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, just post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we might feature it in an upcoming episode. This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Gennar. Cammie Ricca is our Social Producer, Brad Williams is our Editor and Drew Burrows is our Technical Director. Thank you for listening to the prophecy pod from propag Media.
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