The Promote Podcast — Episode Summary

Title: Apollo's Sister Act, ICE Age & the Doomed Tower of Power
Date: February 4, 2026
Hosts: Hiten Samtani (A), Will Krasne (B)
Podcast: The Promote Podcast (ten31 Media)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into three major stories shaping commercial real estate (CRE) this week:

• Tishman Speyer's renewed pursuit of the iconic Chrysler Building amid ground lease drama
• The fallout from ICE immigration enforcement on the Sunbelt multifamily market
• Apollo’s internal mega-deal: Selling a $9 billion CRE loan portfolio from one part of the empire (ARI) to another (Athene)

Hiten and Will deliver their signature blend of sharp analysis, war stories, and candid insider commentary, exploring not just the deals but the big trends and personalities behind the headlines.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Pulse Check and News Rundown

[00:03–07:30]

• The Fed’s Persona and Influence

  • Discussion of Kevin Warsh as a quintessential Fed chair: "He looks like a Fed chair. I'm sure when he was like five, in his class photos, he looked like the Fed chair." (Will, 01:15)
  • Warsh’s anti-quantitative easing, inflation hawk views, and his elite family connections.

• Brookfield’s Lost Value in an OZ Fund

  • Internal confusion and investor unease over the fund’s negative 18.3% IRR.
  • Notable quote: "Brookfield walked so Apollo and Athene could run." (Will, 03:30)

• Willis Tower and Chicago’s Office Market

  • Donald Bren’s selling move seen as a bellwether for a market plagued recently by distressed sales.
  • "This one should trade pretty tight. Great building, great address, performing well with plenty of equity baked in." (Will, 04:43)

• Carlyle’s NYC Self-Storage Portfolio Sale

  • Sale to Storage Mart at $790/sqft, outsized compared to recent office prices.
  • Discussion of institutionalizing self-storage post-ICAP abatement phase-out in 2020.

2. Feature #1: The Chrysler Building Saga — Winners, Losers, and the Power of Timing

[08:17–18:13]

• Tishman Speyer’s New Play for the Chrysler Building

  • Context: AB Rosen (RFR) and Rene Benko (SIGNA) lost their grip on the landmark due to a punishing ground lease reset with Cooper Union (jumps from low single digits to $40M/year).
  • The iconic building’s recurring distress traced to its unique ground lease structure and tax implications for Cooper Union.

• Colorful CRE History

  • Anecdotes: From Jerry Buss’s property swapping for sports franchises to Cooper Union’s endowment challenges.

• Rene Benko’s Multinational Real Estate Collapses

  • "Austrian property magnate slash playboy slash philanthropist, current felon." (Will, 09:22)
  • His empire’s unraveling destabilized the partnership and led to Cooper Union’s aggressive legal play.

• Tishman’s Strategic Edge

  • "You come in at an incredibly low basis. You already know the building cold. You hopefully have a decent relationship with the fee owner, which is kind of the linchpin of this whole thing." (Hiten, 16:30)
  • Discussion about potential sub-$100M purchase, residential conversion rumors, and Tishman’s playbook for bringing in sovereign or institutional capital post-turnaround.

• Memorable Quotes

  • "Sometimes you need a guy with a yacht just making a call. That's what makes this business so fun." (Hiten, 14:23)
  • Will’s prediction on price: "Sub 100." (17:18)

3. Feature #2: ICE Immigration Crackdowns and the Sunbelt Multifamily Squeeze

[19:47–23:13]

• Leasing & Occupancy Headwinds

  • 40% of apartment owners report negative impacts from immigration policies, per John Burns Real Estate survey.
  • Florida: Two-thirds of landlords see negative effects; Texas: 20% significant, 25% somewhat negative.

• Landlord Dilemma

  • "Landlords are essentially being asked to play the role of quasi immigration agents in a way." (Hiten, 20:52)

• Operational Chaos

  • Reduced leasing as immigrant tenants hesitate to sign leases.
  • Verification and screening difficulties: "Landlords don't really have the infrastructure to do this and it's really causing an impact." (Will, 22:31)
  • GDP-level effects, especially in Sunbelt markets dependent on in-migration, as occupancy drops by 400–500 basis points in some areas.

• Downstream Impact on Distress

  • Minor dips in occupancy can tip properties below breakeven, especially for heavily syndicated Sunbelt portfolios.
  • Hiten jokes: "Do you think Sunbelt Syndicators are going to use this as another excuse?" Will: "100%." (23:02)

4. Feature #3: Apollo’s Internal CRE Power Move — Ari Sells to Athene

[23:13–29:06]

• Overview of the Transaction

  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI), a public REIT, sells its entire $9B loan book to Athene (the insurance subsidiary).
  • Athene’s bid at a 20% premium to market pricing: "Fantastic. Talk about self-grading your homework." (Will, 24:14)

• The "Perpetual Motion Machine" of Modern CRE Finance

  • "This is just like a whole pyramid...originate loans, sell off those pieces, get more equity, repeat." (Will, 24:37)
  • Insurance premium capital is leveraged repeatedly via asset-backed lending — a playbook pioneered by Apollo.

• Private vs. Public Market Valuations

  • "There seems to be much greater value placed on what we do from an origination perspective in the institutional market than in the public market right now." (Stuart Rothstein quoted by Hiten, 27:37)

• Nuances and Risks

  • Discussion of loan ratings’ role: "Not saying anything about the quality of this loan book, but, like, let's ask the folks at Moody's how well residential mortgage bonds were rated in 2007." (Will, 26:39)
  • Highlight: The extremely complex capital stack of 111 West 57th Street — "It takes multiple pages, it's absolutely astonishing." (Hiten, 27:06)

• The Broader CRE Credit Picture

  • Athene now top-ranked insurance lender, dominating CRE origination and dabbling in CPACE ("extra leverage that's cheap," Will, 28:39).
  • Will’s analogy: "Athene is just another pocket. So ARI's going down and they can just slam the gate, shove it over there, and it'll float to the top." (28:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the overlapping world of CRE dealmaking:
  "Brookfield walked so Apollo and Athene could run." (Will, 03:30)

• On the surreal complexity of iconic building finance:
  "You know you have a good cap stack when it takes multiple pages, it's absolutely astonishing." (Hiten, 27:06)

• On the role of the Fed in American consciousness:
  "When I was growing up in D.C., I went to a commander's game...the crowd started chanting, 'Lower interest rate!' And I remember being like, dad, what's going on? And he's like, oh, that's Alan Greenspan. He's chairman of the Fed." (Will, 02:17)

• On the woes of Sunbelt multifamily landlords:
  "Landlords are essentially being asked to play the role of quasi immigration agents in a way." (Hiten, 20:52)

• On creatively shuffling risk between related companies:
  "Apollo basically created, like in the Titanic, when you could have four different pockets flood before the whole boat goes down. Athene is just another pocket." (Will, 28:39)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Market rundown / news bulletin: 00:03–07:30
• Chrysler Building / Tishman Speyer deep dive: 08:17–18:13
• ICE, immigration, and multifamily impacts: 19:47–23:13
• Apollo/Athene mega-deal and CRE capital machine: 23:13–29:06

Episode Tone & Style

The conversation is a sharp, insider-y mix of market intelligence, storytelling, and dry wit characteristic of New York dealmakers. Hiten and Will blend candid trade secrets with gallows humor, making even the esoteric corners of structured finance feel accessible and relevant.

For Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

Even if you missed it, this episode is a master class in how the biggest CRE stories of the week intersect with broader themes: the precarious state of office icons, the political wild cards reshaping multifamily, and how the most sophisticated players can always "change the conversation" (and the accounting) to suit their needs. If you want the real stories behind the headlines — with plenty of personality — this episode delivers.