The Rachel Maddow Show

Episode: Maddow calls out the real reason Trump invaded Venezuela
Date: January 6, 2026
Host: Rachel Maddow (MS NOW)
Guests: Senator Mark Kelly, Paul Rykoff

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the surprising and controversial U.S. military invasion of Venezuela under President Donald Trump. Rachel Maddow unpacks the administration’s shifting rationales for the invasion, scrutinizes conflicting explanations, and explores broader questions of executive power and accountability. The episode considers who benefits from the distracting headlines, the erosion of institutional norms, and the chilling effect on dissent within the government and military. Interviews with Senator Mark Kelly and veterans advocate Paul Rykoff provide on-the-ground insight and personal stakes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who Benefits from the Distraction? (00:57–10:22)

• Maddow posits that the biggest initial beneficiary of the Venezuela invasion’s media frenzy is Karen Bud Phelan, a Trump administration Interior Department official embroiled in a growing corruption scandal that was just making headlines.
  • “I believe that the single biggest winner in this whole situation is a person named Karen Bud Phelan. And the reason you can tell she is the biggest beneficiary of the Venezuela invasion is because no one within the sound of my voice right now has any idea who that is.” — Maddow (00:57)
• She outlines Karen Bud Phelan’s conflict of interest regarding a $3.5 million water rights deal tied to a Nevada lithium mine, decided by her agency—classic “public corruption.”
• Notable context: The New York Times was about to blow up this story when news of the Venezuela invasion overtook headlines. Maddow highlights how scandals are conveniently “submarined” by major news distractions.

Memorable Quotes

• “You can see there’s a real financial incentive there, right? If the mine isn’t approved, deal’s off. But if the mine is approved, you guys are going to get paid millions of dollars.” — Maddow (01:14)
• “If Tom Homan’s kava bag can be famous for something like that, I mean, Karen Bud Phelan was about to be famous for this.” — Maddow (03:12)

Timestamps

• 00:57 — Introduction of Karen Bud Phelan corruption story
• 01:40 — Details on Phelan's conflict and the media overshadow

2. Stacked Stories the Venezuela News Helped Bury (10:23–17:30)

• Maddow lists others who benefit from a shift in the news cycle: those connected to unreleased Jeffrey Epstein files, the Trump administration’s HHS gutting the childhood vaccine schedule, and the anniversary of California’s fire crisis mishandling.
• She notes the eerie timing, with the five-year anniversary of the January 6th insurrection—a topic the Trump administration wants to avoid.

Notable Quotes

• “Everybody with a personal stake in what’s in those [Epstein] files that they’re not releasing... is also benefiting from this dramatic change of subject in the news cycle.” — Maddow (07:06)
• “I don’t really believe in wag the dog. I don’t, I don’t really, I don’t believe in most conspiracies just because I think most people aren’t that together to be that well organized ... But let me ask you this. Do you believe they did this Venezuela thing for the reasons they say they did it?” — Maddow (18:10)

Timestamps

• 06:33 — Epstein files/gut vaccine schedule/concurrent controversies
• 09:44 — January 6th, mismanagement anniversary

3. Debunking Trump’s Shifting Explanations on Venezuela (17:30–28:00)

• Maddow methodically dismantles the evolving official explanations for the incursion:
  • First: It’s about drugs (fentanyl), but fentanyl doesn’t come from Venezuela.
  • Then: It’s about cocaine, but U.S. cocaine comes from elsewhere, and Trump pardoned a leader convicted of actual cocaine trafficking.
  • Then: It’s about Maduro as a “dictator” or about “illegitimate elections,” but U.S. support now goes to Maduro’s VP, also elected in the same questionable vote.
  • Then: It’s the oil—yet Reuters reveals oil majors weren’t consulted, and “taking oil” is logistically and financially nonsensical.

Notable Quotes

• “Does any of this sound remotely plausible or like they’re even trying to make it seem plausible? They’re not even trying. And maybe that is the important point here.” — Maddow (27:10)
• “Maybe what this is is a president who can barely bother with coming up with some clearly false pretext, because what he really wants is totally unilateral, totally unaccountable, unquestioned ability to use the US Military anywhere for any purpose…” — Maddow (27:52)

Timestamps

• 17:33 — Fentanyl narrative unraveled
• 19:45 — Cocaine/President of Honduras pardon contradiction
• 22:01 — The oil “stick-up” fallacy
• 25:29 — Polls: Americans don’t see Venezuela as a threat

4. Real Motive: Expansion of Unilateral Military Power (27:30–29:24)

• Maddow argues the invasion’s true significance is Trump’s push to decouple military action from public or congressional consent, normalize whimsical deployment of U.S. forces, and personalize the armed forces as his “own toy soldiers.”
• “He wants to break the perceived connection between public legitimacy for military action and the use of the United States military. He wants the ability to use the US Military with the consent of no one.” — Maddow (27:55)

Timestamps

• 27:30 — Analysis of Trump’s unchecked military authority

5. Retaliation and Chilling of Dissent: The Mark Kelly Story (29:57–37:48)

• Maddow brings on retired Navy Captain and Senator Mark Kelly (31:07) to discuss Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s efforts to demote him and cut his pension for publicly stating that military members “can and must refuse illegal orders.”

• Kelly highlights the attempt to silence dissent:

  • "If he can get me to shut up... what does that say to all these other retired and ex service members? What rights do they have anymore?" — Sen. Kelly (34:13)
  • “If they can punish me in a significant way, that's going to silence other critics of the government. And that is a foundational problem for our constitutional democracy.” — Sen. Kelly (35:16)

• On the Venezuela invasion, Kelly says, “We don't yet [know the real reason]. We'll have a brief this week... Usually when we get these briefs, we walk out... with more questions than we walked in with.” (35:50)

Timestamps

• 29:57 — Introduction to Mark Kelly’s statement
• 31:07 — Kelly on threats to his pension, chilling effect
• 35:50 — Kelly on unanswered questions about Venezuela

6. Veterans’ Perspective: Paul Rykoff on War Powers and Precedent (39:24–46:45)

• Maddow connects today’s Venezuela operation to previous military misadventures and brings on Paul Rykoff, Iraq War veteran and veterans’ advocate, for his analysis.
• Rykoff’s take: This is “not crazy”—it’s part of Trump’s deliberate escalation of U.S. military assertiveness in the Western Hemisphere (“2026 is about taking over the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela is just the next big chip in that step.” — Rykoff, 43:13)
• He observes there are now “no brakes”—“nothing is stopping him. His party’s not stopping him. Congress is not stopping him. NATO's not stopping him... he can do whatever he wants with the most powerful military the world has ever seen, and nothing is stopping him.” (41:49)
• Rykoff worries this is “Forever War 2.0”—endless, unchecked expansion of U.S. force with no end in sight.

Notable Quotes

• “Trump wants to control the Western Hemisphere, and this is just the next piece in a plan that he’s been working on executing for the last year.”— Rykoff (43:13)
• “Anybody who stands in his way ... he's going to try to knock them down, he's going to try to remove them, he's going to ignore them, and he's just going to keep going forward.” — Rykoff (44:33)
• “Too many people in this country, Rachel, especially on the left, have a total failure of imagination. They fail to imagine what Trump might do. He has no failure of imagination.” — Rykoff (45:20)

Timestamps

• 39:24 — Rykoff introduced, Iraq War backstory
• 41:49 — Rykoff’s viral critique of Trump’s military power grab
• 43:13 — Analysis: Venezuela just the next chip
• 44:33 — Trump’s use of military as hammer
• 45:50 — No clear way to stop Trump identified

7. Postscript: January 6th, the Plaque, and American Memory (46:48–48:28)

• Maddow closes on the congressional controversy over a commemorative plaque for police who defended the Capitol on January 6th. The plaque remains absent, with Speaker Mike Johnson issuing bureaucratic excuses.
  • “Now it's the law. That's how you implement it. You just put up the plaque. Ta da. That's his response thus far. We'll let you know if we hear more. We won't.” — Maddow (48:22)

Timestamps

• 46:48 — Update on Capitol plaque controversy
• 48:28 — Episode sign-off

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Rachel Maddow

• On the absurdity of shifting invasion justifications:
  “Maybe we just went down to Venezuela to enforce the gun laws, to charge Nicolas Maduro with illegal weapons possession. Or maybe we went for election integrity... Does any of this sound remotely plausible or like they're even trying to make it seem plausible?” (27:10)

• On Trump's military power grab:
  “Maybe the most important thing going on here is that Donald Trump does not believe he needs to even try to convince you of some reason, some false reason or some true reason that explains why he is using the US Military the way he is.” (27:44)

Senator Mark Kelly

• On silencing dissent:
  "If they're successful in getting me to not speak out... what does that say to all these other retired and ex service members? What rights do they have anymore?" (34:13)

Paul Rykoff

• On the precedent being set:
  “This is Forever War 2.0. This is the manifestation and the evolution of that and there's no sense that it could end. So that's the question for every leader in America and in the world. What are you going to do to stop him?” (46:17)

Important Timestamps & Segments

| Timestamp | Segment & Subject | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:57 | Maddow introduces the Venezuela “wag the dog”/corruption thesis | | 06:33 | Other scandals buried by invasion news | | 17:33 | Dismantling Trump’s stated reasons for invasion | | 22:01 | Reuters debunks "take the oil" explanation | | 25:29 | Polls: Public not convinced by admin’s case | | 27:30 | Maddow: Trump's motives—unchecked military power | | 31:07 | Sen. Mark Kelly interview: Retaliation against dissent | | 35:50 | Kelly: Congress in the dark on Venezuela rationale | | 39:24 | Paul Rykoff: Forever wars and military overreach | | 43:13 | Rykoff: Venezuela as another power play in Western Hemisphere | | 45:50 | Rykoff: Lack of checks on Trump’s military actions | | 46:48 | Capitol plaque/J6 anniversary update |

Conclusion

This episode offers a deeply skeptical, meticulously detailed analysis of the Trump administration’s invasion of Venezuela, with Maddow and her guests arguing that shifting rationales obscure the real motive: a drive towards unchecked, personalist executive power over the military. Major investigative journalism, congressional pushback, and public accountability efforts are all shown to be endangered by a “forever war” mindset and a chilling atmosphere toward dissent. Maddow urges listeners to resist normalization of these actions—reminding them of the vital importance of public scrutiny, lawful process, and imagination in defending democracy.