We The People 2026 Special primary coverage

Summary

The Rachel Maddow Show – “We The People 2026” Special Primary Coverage

Date: August 5, 2026
Host: Rachel Maddow (MS NOW)
Key Panelists/Contributors: Peter, Eugene Daniels, Michael Steele, Ali Velshi, Election Analyst, Chris Jansing

---

EPISODE OVERVIEW

Theme:
A dynamic, in-depth special covering the pivotal 2026 primary elections, focusing on crucial races in Michigan and Washington State. The episode examines primary-night returns, campaign dynamics, party challenges, and the immediate implications for the November general election, with special attention to divisions within the Democratic Party and organizational turmoil among Republicans.

Purpose:
To provide live analysis, voter insights, on-the-ground reporting, and expert breakdowns of the most competitive and consequential primaries, shedding light on emerging national trends ahead of a major election cycle.

---

KEY TOPICS & DISCUSSION POINTS

1. Michigan Senate Democratic Primary – A Nail-biter

• Candidates: Abdul El Sayed vs. Haley Stevens; Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn but on ballot, influencing outcome).
• Dynamics:
  • The race is far closer than polls predicted—most recent high-quality polls overstated El Sayed's support by double digits.
  • Mallory McMorrow, despite dropping out, holds ~3.7% of votes, potentially “determinative” in close race ([03:50]).
  • Both parties and outside groups closely monitoring Wayne County (Detroit and suburban vote splits), other urban population centers, and rural support.

“Polling primaries is always difficult because you’re modeling an electorate and those modeling assumptions make a huge difference.” — Peter, [04:23]

• Coalition Challenge:
  • Winner will need to “stitch that coalition back together to take on Mike Rogers in the fall,” emphasizing post-primary unity ([04:51], Peter).

“You only got a few months to try to, as you say, stitch it back together. At the same time, Republicans—Trump land—will be looking to do everything they can to amplify those differences.” — Eugene Daniels, [05:25]

• Republican Issues:
  • Mike Rogers (Republican candidate): Described as a “normie Republican” with MAGA links, faces liabilities (gas prices, healthcare, tariffs, foreign policy) ([07:45], Peter & Michael Steele).
  • Michigan GOP is presented as disorganized and riven by internal conflict ([28:17]).

2. Polling’s Limits & Voter Reality

• Polling Lapses:
  • Polls routinely overstate support for insurgent/outsider candidates, underestimating reliability of older voters.
  • High cost and the presence of partisan/low-quality polls have contributed to confusion, especially seen in the Texas Jasmine Crockett race ([11:18], Ali Velshi).

“Polls do not vote. People vote. It’s always important to talk to people on the ground.” — Ali Velshi, [11:18]

• Ground Game’s Resurgence:
  • El Sayed’s campaign doubled down on personal outreach—225,000 doors knocked, aiming for personal engagement over media spend ([33:41], Chris Jansing).

3. Down-ballot Races in Michigan

• 7th Congressional District:

  • Three-way Democratic: William Lawrence (progressive, Sunrise Movement founder, Sanders/El Sayed–endorsed) wins over Bridget Brink and Matt Masdin, who split the moderate vote ([25:17], Rachel Maddow; [30:05], Peter).
  • Super PACs attacked Lawrence as a “fake progressive,” highlighting growing insidiousness of outside spending and manipulation ([30:05]).
  • Panelists note this is a key test for the theory that progressive candidates can win swing districts ([32:55]).

• 8th Congressional District:

  • Republican primary meltdown: Trump-endorsed Amir Hasan trails retired engineer Tom Smith (who had dropped out), illustrating the Republican Party’s deep dysfunction at the state level ([26:49], Rachel Maddow; [28:17], Michael Steele & panel).

4. Washington State – Top-Two Primary & Moderate Incumbency

• Key Race: WA-03
  • Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a ~680-vote lead; ultimately advances to general against Republican Josh Braun, a moderate state Senate leader ([17:00]–[20:19]).
  • Panel highlights her position as a centrist/Blue Dog co-chair in a Trump-won district, unique for pragmatic focus (auto repair, food safety, sea lions!) and ability to withstand both left and right challenges.

“She’s served two terms, both of those raced she won... beating the former Green Beret ... seen as on the bleeding edge of MAGA.” — Rachel Maddow, [18:29]

• Progressive Primary Challenges:
  • Segment considers strategic wisdom (or not) of left-wing primary challenges in moderate districts, referencing parallel in Maine and noting how state’s top-two system provides protection from being “primaried out” ([21:10]–[22:17], Peter & Ali Velshi).

---

MEMORABLE MOMENTS & QUOTES

• On Polls and Voter Mobilization:
  “Anytime anybody’s telling you that the reason they're gonna win is because of all the young people who are turning out... that is often something you need to check twice before you cut once.” — Rachel Maddow, [43:53]

• On Michigan GOP Dysfunction:
  “They had like a two-popes situation... two chairmen... they never cleaned out all the pipes... People aren’t working, people aren’t helping... no organizational structure. There’s no discipline. It’s critical.” — Michael Steele & Peter, [29:01]

• On Super PACs and Primary Manipulation:
  “Something just really insidious about trying to trick voters with super PAC money... Instead of everyone using this super PAC money to make these sort of arguments that they don't actually believe...” — Peter, [31:39]

• From Michigan Voters (via Saginaw popcorn company):
  “Have faith in their voters, listen to their voters and consider all aspects, not just big employers... but what decisions are doing to small businesses.” — Saginaw resident, [45:39–45:54]

• On Candidate Ground Game:
  “Abdul El Sayed believes... you have to return to the roots of the Democratic Party. You need to be, as part of that, returned to your roots, which is talking to people, hearing what future constituents have to say...” — Chris Jansing, [33:41]

---

IMPORTANT SEGMENTS & TIMESTAMPS

| Time | Segment | |--------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 03:50 | Analysis of Michigan Senate Democratic primary, McMorrow’s lingering vote affect. | | 04:23 | Peter on polling errors and coalition-building challenges. | | 05:25 | Eugene Daniels on party unity and GOP efforts to amplify Dem divisions. | | 09:27 | Ali Velshi on importance of Black Detroit vote, ground campaigns. | | 11:18 | Ali Velshi on why polls failed and influence of independent polling. | | 15:43 | Election Analyst on MI-07 three-way Democratic race dynamics, progressives. | | 17:00 | Washington’s top-two primary system explained, WA-03 breakdown. | | 18:09 | Character sketch of Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez, her centrist strategies. | | 25:17 | William Lawrence wins MI-07 Democratic nomination; moderate vote split. | | 26:49 | Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, GOP primary chaos with Trump-endorsed candidate trailing a dropout. | | 28:17 | Michael Steele on the Michigan GOP’s collapse. | | 30:05 | Peter & Rachel on super PAC attack ads in the MI-07 primary. | | 33:41 | Chris Jansing reports from Abdul El Sayed HQ — door-knocking strategy. | | 40:19 | Eugene Daniels's reporting from Haley Stevens's campaign perspective, campaign’s optimism, absentee rural votes matter. | | 45:39 | Saginaw voter advice — “have faith in voters, listen to voters”. | | 49:40+ | Michael Steele on campaign strategies, narrative over horse race for November. | | 51:35 | Wayne County returns: advanced vs. day-of vote, implications for Stevens and El Sayed. |

---

THEMES AND CONCLUSIONS

• 2026 as a Test for Party Strategies:
  The episode paints these primaries as ideological “test kitchens” for both parties: Democrats must unify quickly post-primary, while Republicans are grappling with organizational dysfunction.

• Voters, Not Polls, Decide:
  The panel forcefully asserts the fallibility of polling, citing actual, tangible voter engagement, local concerns, and kitchen-table issues as the decisive factors.

• Progressive vs. Moderate Tension:
  The continuing debate within the Democratic Party about the viability of progressive candidates in swing districts is elevated, with Michigan’s results seen as a harbinger for November and beyond.

• Pragmatic, Local Focus Over National Drama:
  Whether it’s regulatory issues, tariffs, gas prices, or local party problems, the importance of responding to genuine constituent needs is repeatedly emphasized.

• Super PAC Influence:
  The effectiveness and ethics of super PAC messaging are criticized, especially for manipulative strategies that obscure rather than clarify ideological choices.

---

SUMMARY FOR NON-LISTENERS

This special episode of The Rachel Maddow Show explores the razor-thin 2026 Democratic primaries in Michigan, highlighting both the unexpectedly close Senate race and key down-ballot contests as critical battlegrounds for both parties’ national fortunes. Through expert panel analysis, on-the-ground reporting, and direct voter voices, the show exposes the limits of polling, celebrates a renewed focus on grassroots organizing, and draws sharp contrasts between the prospects of progressive and moderate candidates. The episode also chronicles the Michigan GOP’s disorder, the unique top-two primary system in Washington State, and delves into the broader question of party unity and narrative-building — all with Maddow’s signature incisive wit and detail.

Transcript

[DSW Advertiser]

At dsw, we ask the important questions like what shoes are you going to wear? Whether you're prepping for wedding season, festival season, or just planning the ultimate vacay, the right shoes can make or break an rsvp. So own the moment. You've got big plans and we've got just the shoes at the perfect price, of course. Get ready to get ready with Designer Shoe Warehouse. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today and let us surprise you.

[Beautyrest Advertiser]

A Beautyrest mattress gives you unparalleled motion separation, isolating movement with our pocketed coil technology while providing individualized support for every sleeping position. People at their best get their Beautyrest for 100 years.

[Rachel Maddow]

Hey everybody, it's Rachel Maddow here. Forgive me popping into your feed like this, but I wanted to tell you that more than a dozen of us from Ms. Now are going to be in Texas on Saturday, September 26th. I'm gonna be there. Lawrence O' Donnell will be there. So will Jen Psaki and Stephanie Ruhl and Ali Velshi and Chris Hayes and Jacob Soboroff and Simone Sanders Townsend and, and, and a whole bunch of us are all going to be there in Texas. Tickets start at just over 30 bucks each. It's in Arlington, just outside Dallas. There's a ton to do there. If you come, you'll get to meet all of us. You'll also get to meet everybody else there, all these other great people from our great msnow community. We'd love to see you. And if you buy a ticket to the Texas event, you will get access to our new MSNow membership, free for a year. We're really excited about it. It launches later this summer. You'll be able to talk with me, talk with some of the other tickets for Texas are on sale now. You can learn more at Ms. Now together. Hope to see you in Texas. We are coming into the last poll closing of the night coming up on 11pm Eastern in Washington state. Residents there vote by mail if you choose. So everybody gets sent a ballot so that you can return by mail if you choose. Instead of mailing in your ballot, you can take your ballot to a Dropbox or to a voting center. And if you do that, you have until 8pm local time to do that. 8pm local time is five seconds ago. So in Washington, there's a bunch of interesting races to watch in terms of Democratic Party machinations. We've been watching the Democratic member of Congress, Marie Glusenkamp Perez. She's sort of an outspoken centrist kind of an idiosyncratic, interesting Democratic member of Congress. She's facing primary challengers and in her southwestern Washington state district, it's an R+2 district. Trump narrowly won that district in 2024. She's narrowly won that race twice. So we'll be watching that. Washington is also a state where we've got the top two candidates advancing to the general election, regardless of which party they are in. So we'll be having a look at those Washington results when we are first starting to get them. We are still very closely though watching the Senate race in Michigan. As the Democratic primary in the Michigan Senate race continues to be a real nail biter. The polling in this race shifted over time. It sort of made people think that there was gonna be a really big difference in the early vote as compared to the same day vote. But I think a lot of the prognostication on this one is falling by the wayside as we now just have to watch the actual vote come in. And what you see on the right side of your screen here is an interesting factor. We've got 42% of the vote here overall. You see how tight it is between Abdul Al Sayed and Haley Stevens. But on the right side of your screen there, that is Mallory McMorrow who was in this race until July 5th when she dropped out. But she is still on the ballot. And pulling 3.7% of the vote is no way to get yourself elected senator. But it is an interesting factor that may become really operative in terms of us understanding the dynamics of this race as they come in right now. The difference, she's got 22,861 votes. Mallory Morrow, again, she's not still in the race. Look at the difference between Abdul El Sayed and Haley Stevens. It's 20,000 votes. So in a closed race, every single vote can matter. And quirky dynamics in 2/3 way races can be potentially determinative.

[Peter]

Yeah, and your point on the polling, I mean, polling primaries is always difficult because you're modeling an electorate and those modeling assumptions make a huge difference. The last five or six polls that we saw, like high quality polls in this race had Abdul Al Sayed up by double digits. Plus, I think at this point in the evening we can say pretty definitively that will not be the margin. And I think that has actually a pretty important implication because whoever wins this is going to win a pretty close race between these two candidates. It's not going to be a romper and that's going to have implications for how, whichever, whoever it is wins kind of figures out how to stitch that coalition back together to take on Mike Rogers in the fall. And I do think it's different coming out of a narrow win than a big win in terms of what's going through your head about how much do I need to talk to the folks tonight at the podium, for instance, or tomorrow, if it's tomorrow, that didn't vote for me. And I think that's actually now very much in the air for either of these candidates.

[Eugene Daniels]

I'm struck by you talking about the need for whoever wins this on the Democratic side to stitch that coalition together. And as we're speaking to folks at home, I'm speaking to some of those in the room on both sides, including inside the White House right now. And a Trump ally. I think you're getting our preview of what it's going to look like in the fall again, it doesn't matter what happens tonight. It matters what happens in November. Ultimately, at the end of the day, this Trump ally, someone who is close to the president in his ear on nights like this. So there's a preview of what Twitter may look like tomorrow. Mind you saying that they are focused on exploiting, they will be focused on exploiting those differences, the divisions that we're witnessing as we speak and have been talking about right now among Democrats, obviously. So on the one hand, you have the Democrats who need they only got a few months to try to, as you say, stitch it back together. At the same time, the Republicans Trump land will be looking to do everything they can to sort of amplify.

[Michael Steele]

Yeah, it's not unlike the Republican. Republicans don't have something to exploit on their side, too. Republicans have delivered absolutely squat to the people of Michigan over the last two years, except high gas prices, a lack of access to health care and a whole bunch of other decisions that Mike Rogers is going to have to carry into this general election.

[Rachel Maddow]

And in electoral terms, they've delivered to the people of Michigan the same Senate candidate who lost the last Senate race in Michigan against Alyssa Slotkin.

[Michael Steele]

Exactly.

[Peter]

That's exactly the same gubernatorial candidate who's lost twice statewide as well.

[Michael Steele]

And so while that is their space, they're going to do exactly what Peter said. And so to shift the argument to say look at all the commies on the left and look at all the scary things you need to focus on on the left, you're right. That's why I want to go back to something that Ali Vitale said that is very, very important, where she posited this framing of this either, or do I turn out my base voters? Simone and I can talk about turning out that base vote, or do I turn out the folks who don't vote? Let me tell you what I did. I turned out both. Because politics is not a zero sum game. If you want to win and the Democrats have to ask themselves, do you want. I don't give a damn who the nominee is at this point in the game, you got to zero in on the bottom line. Do you want to win this race? Because all the indicators, the leading indicators are there that you can also.

[Peter]

I want to say Mike Rogers in a kind of, you know, resume way, like makes sense as a sort of normie Republican in that state.

[Rachel Maddow]

House Intelligence Committee, House Intelligence Committee.

[Peter]

And a kind of again, like both, you know, he's MAGA because everyone's MAGA now, but he wasn't really maga, so he has some sort of like old Romney style pedigree. You know, he had an interview with Semaphore the other day and they asked him like what his position order on the tariffs. He couldn't come up with it. About the Iran where he said, I don't care. He goes, well, I care, but it's not really what I'm hearing about. It's like, man, you're gonna like again, this goes in both directions. You're gonna have to answer for the tariffs, you're gonna have to answer for the, you know, for Todd Blanche, you're gonna have to answer for the war in Iran. You're gonna have to answer for gas prices, you're gonna have to answer for grocery prices. Like you, you better get things together now.

[Ali Velshi]

You can rant about scot free right now on this. All of the money that's been spent thus far in the primary has been spent between the Democratic candidates. And so Mike Rogers just walking around here like Mr. Rogers in the neighborhood. I don't care.

[Rachel Maddow]

Well, you should care.

[Ali Velshi]

He should care.

[Peter]

But you should care.

[Ali Velshi]

To the point that Peter was making about the coming together. It is not easy to come together this close to the general election. It'll be less than 90 days. It's a late primary in Texas. They still trying to come together in the Democratic primary. Talarico is still struggling too. You asked him the question about black voter support. He did a town hall the other day with black voters, trying to talk to them about their issues.

[Rachel Maddow]

The thing he's working hardest on in

[Ali Velshi]

his campaign will need to. So if El Sayed is the nominee, even if Haley Stevens is the nominee, I've talked to people in Michigan that have said look, they both have turf support and they both have work to do in the black community. This looks like this primary is coming down to what voters in Wayne county, specifically voters in Detroit, specifically black voters. Cuz western Wayne county is white. So what are voters in Detroit going to do? What are they talking about? And that's what I'm looking for by the way.

[Eugene Daniels]

Not for nothing, the biggest billboard we saw as we drove to Saginaw, 100 miles northwest of Detroit yesterday and back was the giant gas price signs everywhere. $4.36 I think it is today the highest it has been since May, up 13% in the last week. You can talk about all the campaign signs that you want and all these things that are outside of homes, but that's what people see every day right now. Whatever you say about a more normal Republican candidate, that's something that Republicans are gonna have to answer for and certainly gonna have to answer for in a Michigan.

[Rachel Maddow]

And I will just say a little peek behind the curtain for our viewers here in talking to our election in terms of how Ms. Now as a network views this Senate contest and the effort by Democrats and Republicans to try to retain control for the Republicans or seize control of the Senate for the Democrats. This race, this Senate race for November in Michigan is viewed by Ms. Now by our nonpartisan experts as a toss up race. If Haley Stevens wins tonight or if Abdul El Sayed wins tonight, it will still tomorrow be a toss up Senate race in the fall according to our again nonpartisan expert prognosticators. And now that may change when we see how the whoever the nominee is, what happens with the polling. We see how the campaign shape up from Mr. Rogers, as you put it, and from the eventual Democratic nominee. But there's nothing intrinsic about this choice that connects definitely to the question of electability absent the way the campaign unfolds from here on out. And so I think voters can try to gain and we know they have to try to stitch these two things together. But there's nothing magic about either one of these candidates that makes this an easier fight.

[Ali Velshi]

No, no. And I think that, look, I'm so glad we made the point about the polls because me and Michael Steele, we never, I was like, what you mean 15, 20, what are y' all drinking and eating and smoking over there in the poll situation? This was always going to be closer. And so I do think that there's been this advent as of as of late recently in the last two cycles of these of news organizations aren't doing as much polling anymore. Polling costs money. It is expensive. And so you've got some of these independent entities that start doing polling and if they're not putting out their top lines, if they're not looking at, you know, we're not clear about who is behind, who's pushing the polling. It can look like what happened in that Texas race where all these polls said Jasmine Crockett was definitely gonna. They pushed her into the race and come to find out after the fact through good reporting that those were Republican backed polling entities that put the polls out there to encourage her to get into the race to get the candidate that they wanted. And so I think again, polls do not vote. People vote. So it's always important to talk to people on the ground, which is why I thought it was so amazing what you were doing out there. I watched all this stuff. I'm like, come on, focus group.

[Eugene Daniels]

What's amazing to me is I used to be peppering you with questions about the day.

[Ali Velshi]

Pete Alexander said, now we're side by

[Eugene Daniels]

side sitting on this big fancy set here in New York. It's a good gig.

[Rachel Maddow]

Wonder twin powers activate. Ally Velshi is looking at Michigan right now. Overall, we've got how much in, in the state? 45% in.

[Election Analyst]

Abdul said is just straddling the 50% line. He was a little above it a few moments ago. Now he's back below it. He's still. The lead's about the same though. It's still about 23 and a half thousand votes here. But we are seeing these numbers coming in. They're coming in all over the state. You can see there are very few counties where, where we don't have vote in. And in the popular, the areas with a lot of population, Flint, Lansing, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Traverse City, Ann Arbor, Detroit. We've got, we've got lots of vote in, In Wayne County, 26% of the vote is in. Haley' still in the lead. Remember we went from sort of 6% to 25% and Haley Stevens took the lead. She was running almost two thirds to one third. Her margin is dropping in and around Detroit. She now has a 15,000 point lead. 15,000 vote lead in Wayne County. Now Wayne county is Detroit and other things in Detroit. This part of it over here, there's a little section here that's Hamtramck and next to it is Highland Park. In these two places we do not have vote yet. This is important because Hamtramck, like Dearborn. Dearborn is the old Ford Plant which attracted a lot of immigrant workers, where Abdul said has done well. Hamtramck like that has also got a large South Asian community. We have not seen voting come in from Hamtramck yet or from Highland Park. These are the only two areas within the city of Detroit where we haven't seen any vote at all yet. In both cases, they are likely to favor Abdul Al Said, but he is at the moment trailing in wayne county by 15,000 vote. He is winning in three of the counties around Wayne, losing in the one below it, above it in Macomb, he's winning, but that's again only 34% of the vote in and below Detroit is Monroe County, 20% of the vote in the 5% spread between Haley Stevens and Abdul El Sayed. So this is a real nail biter. We still have 800,000 Democratic votes to count in Detroit and the spread across the state is under 25,000 votes. So it's not clear to anybody how this is going to turn out. I think you make an interesting point though. This is a swing state, Rachel, and regardless of what happens, it's still going to be a swing state tomorrow or Thursday or Friday. On Friday there is a unity rally. Mallory McMurro has said she will be there to support whoever wins. Haley Stevens has said she will support the winner, hoping that it's her with her full force. And last night I talked to Abdul El Sayed and asked him whether he will be attending that rally and supporting Haley Stevens if she wins. And he said yes. So they understand that it's August, not February like Texas. It's August now and they've got work to do.

[Rachel Maddow]

Ali, while we are staying in Michigan, I want to take a look at Washington in a second. But before we leave Michigan, can we look at 7 at the 7th congressional district again, this is incumbent Republican Tom Barrett. Yes, Trump won the seat, won this congressional district very, very narrowly in the last election. And we've got this interesting three way Democratic race here. What have we got so far?

[Election Analyst]

Yeah, so this is a really interesting case. You had Bridget Brink, who as you mentioned was the former charge d', affaires, the ambassador, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. We hadn't had one for a while, by the way. She was then put into place under President Biden. Donald Trump comes in, she doesn't agree with Trump's policy, so she resigned and she decides to run in a very moderate lane and has a resume that makes a whole lot of sense to get elected to Congress. Something happened and Matt Masdin gets into the race. He's supported by the state senator, the junior senator from Michigan, Alyssa Slotkin. There seems to be some overlap between Masdin's staff and Alissa Slotkin. They've split what appears to be the moderate vote. William Lawren, who's one of the founders of the Sunrise organization and coming in from the left, is now at 42%. This has been moving around all night. Bridget Brink's been doing generally a little bit better, but we're basically settling into a place with 54% in. We're not in a position to call this, but William Lawrence is leading and has been leading all night. And the more moderate vote in a district that you said Donald Trump carried narrowly has been split between two other candidates. It's an interesting one to watch.

[Rachel Maddow]

Super interesting. We'll keep eyes that. Again, 54% of the vote in there. Let's jump all the way across the country to Washington State. Tell us what we are looking for there. I know that there's a few congressional districts there.

[Election Analyst]

Yeah, I'm, I'm trying to get to the one that I, I want to show you. Let me see. Where is it? Oh, I'm just going to work my way around the map until I, until I find it. Let's go. There we go. Three. That's what I'm looking for. All right. This is 58% in. This is the third district in Washington. It's a brand new board, by the way. I'm still getting used to it tonight, but it's new.

[Peter]

It's brighter colors.

[Rachel Maddow]

It's very responsive.

[Election Analyst]

It's very responsive.

[Peter]

It's true.

[Rachel Maddow]

It's great.

[Election Analyst]

Arguably too responsive. No, it's fantastic. It's actually really nice. I'm just getting used to it. We have an incumbent, Marie Gluson, Camp Perez. This is a really interesting story. Chris was talking about a little earlier. 58% of the vote in. Now, the way it works in Washington is that the top two will go on to the election. She's got a lead of 680 votes. This has been flipping back and forth between her and Josh Braun for a large part of the night. Again, no call has been made by the Associated Press as to which two are going to move ahead. But you can sort of see from the math here with 58%, it's likely going to be these two facing off against each other. She got elected as a more moderate voice within the, within the Democratic Party. She's not been facing a challenge, a meaningful challenge from the left. But this is going to go to and this will be an interesting election to watch on election night.

[Ali Velshi]

Yeah.

[Rachel Maddow]

This is, I mean, so Gluzon Kemp Perez, she's the co chair of the Blue Dog Coalition. She's a centrist. I would describe her more as a centrist than a moderate.

[Election Analyst]

I think that's right.

[Rachel Maddow]

In terms of her policy positions and her interests and everything. But she's served two terms and both of those races that she won for both of those terms, she beat Joe Kent.

[Election Analyst]

Yes.

[Rachel Maddow]

She beat the former Green Beret who ended up becoming a senior counterterrorism official for Trump. And he was.

[Election Analyst]

Who then resigned.

[Ali Velshi]

Yeah.

[Rachel Maddow]

And who then resigned in protest over the Iran war. And he's seen as not at all a moderate, was seen even as on the bleeding edge of maga. But he got very close to her in the general election twice. Now, this John Braun, who's polling very well against Glusenkamp Perez in this, this primary. But again, it's Washington state. So no matter what party you're in, the top two candidates advance to the general. He's not a joke, Kent. He is seen as a more moderate Republican. He's the Republican state Senate leader in Washington state. So it'll be really interesting to see how Glizen Kemp Perez runs against him.

[Peter]

She also, I just think she's an interesting member of Congress because again, everyone's got to figure out how to represent their district. And they all got to figure out how do I square me and what my personality is in my district. And she's in one of the sort of most imperiled Democratic seats in terms of a Democrat representing a Trump district.

[Michael Steele]

Yeah.

[Rachel Maddow]

Anywhere in the country.

[Peter]

She has taken up the cause of onerous nutritional inspections and food safety regulations in daycares which made it difficult for them to serve, like fresh fruit, headlights being too bright on cars, which I agree with. She and her husband actually have an auto mechanic shop. And also really, really on the scourge of sea lions overrunning her district. There are too many of them.

[Election Analyst]

And just because we're on topic, the Associated Press has just advanced her to the general election. Mary Gluson Camp Perez will advance and be the Democratic candidate in November. You'll remember, Chris, when we used to interview her before she ran and the various times she run, she'd often do it from the auto shop.

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

Yes.

[Rachel Maddow]

And actually we've got two calls.

[Election Analyst]

There we go. So Josh Braun and Marie Gluson Clamp Perez are going to be advancing to the election.

[Rachel Maddow]

And of course, the, the big loser in this election is the Sea lions.

[Peter]

Yeah.

[Ali Velshi]

Justice for the sea lions. Can I just say, this primary challenge that she had, I think it just puts an interesting question on the table that Democrats are gonna have to continue to ask, not just throughout the rest of this year, but next year is in advance of more elections that are becoming that we'll be watching for the presidential on down. When is a primary challenge from the left constructive? And when does it risk weakening a candidate? And there are people, the activists, they don't like the congresswoman. Let's just be very clear. They don't. That's why they were primaring her. They don't think she's a good Democrat or progressive enough. But that is particularly why she holds the seat that Republicans feel like they should hold in that state. And so I don't know if this was good politics, but it definitely made an interest.

[Peter]

Well, we should say that the structure of the primary here helped her. Right. Because it was a top two. She didn't have that sort of contained primary electorate. But what we saw in Maine, in Jared Golden's district. Now, Jared golden, who, like Mary Gluson Camperez, represents in the top tier of Democrats representing Trump districts, he's retired. Part of the reason he's retired is because he said he's sick of politics. But he was also facing a progressive primary challenge, which was gonna be expensive and a pain, and he thought would weaken him. And he thought would weaken him. And he just got out of town. There is a progressive who won that and is now locked in a battle with Paula Page one, a great Rachel Maddow recurring character. I have to say.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yes.

[Peter]

Hours and hours.

[Rachel Maddow]

Don't start me on Paula Page.

[Election Analyst]

Oh, I know, I know.

[Peter]

Keep the Rachel Matto extended universe. This is. You got another race.

[Ali Velshi]

He's back.

[Peter]

You got it.

[Rachel Maddow]

I'm actually peeking.

[Michael Steele]

I know.

[Peter]

But again, I think. And one of the things I think I will say to this is, look, we're not seeing. I mean, you know, there wasn't some big left challenge to Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

[Soma Intimates Advertiser]

No.

[Peter]

Right. And the. The.

[Rachel Maddow]

The.

[Peter]

The primary in Iowa was not particularly ideological that Josh Turek emerged from. There was not some huge organized effort to knock out Mary Peltola in Alaska. So, like, there has been a little bit of. I think there's some strategic sense.

[Ali Velshi]

Yeah.

[Rachel Maddow]

That suffuses people.

[Ali Velshi]

And that Chuck Schumer. I mean, sometimes his picker has been good and sometimes the picker has been off. I think that's true.

[Peter]

That's also true.

[Michael Steele]

Guess what clears the tail about Strategery. Later.

[Rachel Maddow]

Chris Jansing is standing by at Abdul Al Said headquarters in Detroit tonight. We're going to take a quick break. We'll check with her on the other side of this very quick break. Stick with us here on Ms. Now as our primary night coverage continues with so much juicy stuff still to come. See in a minute,

[DSW Advertiser]

You know that thing where you get an amazing pair of shoes at a really great price and want to tell everyone about it?

[Soma Intimates Advertiser]

Yeah.

[DSW Advertiser]

So do we. Here at Designer Shoe Warehouse. We'll give you something to brag about, like the latest style from brands you love or the trends everyone's obsessing over or shoes that make you feel like, well, you. So go ahead, show off a little. Buying shoes that get you at prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today. DSW, let us surprise you.

[Beautyrest Advertiser]

A Beautyrest mattress gives you unparalleled motion separation, isolating movement with our pocketed coil technology while providing individualized support for every sleeping position. People at their best get their Beautyrest for one years.

[Rachel Maddow]

Soma Intimates presents Boob Therapy with model Candace Huffine.

[Soma Intimates Advertiser]

The biggest problem is no one's wearing the right size. For years I thought I'm a 38 double D. Turns out I'm a 40 DD and it makes all the difference in the world. Get in your chat and be like, ladies, when was the last time we all got, like a fresh bra? Today it's time. Because it matters. They might be like, girl, what's gotten into you lately? And you're like, my bra fits. I'm Candace Huffine and this was my Soma boob therapy session.

[Rachel Maddow]

SiriusXM listeners get an additional 20% off. Use code SIRIUS20 in stores and soma.com all right, we're getting results from Michigan right now. And we've got a couple of really interesting things going on in some congressional races. First of all, look at this. In the seventh district, this is a swing district that's held by an incumbent Republican congressman named Tom Barrett. Tom Barrett is facing a Democratic challenge that is worth paying attention to in November because this is a very, very swing district. Trump did win this district, but only barely. Again, this is Michigan's 7th congressional district. Do we have the board there? I think we do. Michigan 7. Thank you. This is the Democratic primary. No, this is the Michigan Senate Democratic primary. Hopefully, we'll get the seventh district. All right, well, let's talk about this. 50% of the vote in in the Democratic Senate primary. You can see how close that is. All right, back to this one. All right.

[Soma Intimates Advertiser]

Okay.

[Rachel Maddow]

7th congressional district. Look, there has been a call in this case. We were just talking about this with Ali Velshi at the board. This was a three way Democratic primary between Bridget Brink, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Matt Masdam, who is a retired Navy SEAL who worked in the Obama White House, who had the endorsement, endorsement of Alyssa Slatkin, who used to hold this seat, and then this young man, William Lawrence, who's a co founder of the very interesting, very radical sunrise movement, activist, movement, climate change activists. He had an endorsement from Abdul Al Said and also from Bernie Sanders. And he has prevailed. You see Brink and Mazdem splitting what I think reductively might be described as the moderate vote. He and William Lawrence will be the Democratic nominee in the 7th congressional district in Michigan. Do we have the board for the 8th congressional district in Michigan? Now the 8th congressional district in Michigan, the Democrat here is an incumbent in the 8th congressional district. The incumbent is Kristen McDonald Rivett and she is running for reelection. This is also a swing district. Again, the 8th congressional district in Michigan. Kristen McDonald, Richard holds that seat right now. I think she won with about 51% of the vote last time around. And this is definitely seen as potential Republican pickup. But something interesting has happened in the Republican primary in this 8th congressional district in Michigan, which is that Trump made an endorsement in this Republican primary in Michigan.

[Chris Jansing]

8.

[Rachel Maddow]

He endorsed a man named Amir Hasan. And when Trump made that endorsement, another major candidate in the race on the Republican side, Thomas Smith, got out of the race. But as of right now, I don't know if we can show this board or not, if this is just a mirage in the congressional district, the 8th congressional district in Michigan, Tom Smith, this retired engineer from GM who got out of the race, he suspended his race on July 16th. Look, he's got 51% of the vote.

[Peter]

He doesn't even have a picture, bro.

[Eugene Daniels]

He missed school photo day.

[Rachel Maddow]

So Trump endorsed Amir Hasan in this race. This is a third of the vote in. This is a gettable district for Republicans, at least they'd like to think so. Again, Krista McDonald Rivet is the Democratic incumbent here. But despite Trump's endorsement and despite Tom Smith getting out of the race, Tom Smith appears to be doing very well for himself in this Congressional district. This appears to be a Republican primary gone haywire. Michael Smith, excuse me, Michael Steele earlier was describing the Democratic Party benefiting in Michigan from the Republican Party apparently having its pants on backwards.

[Michael Steele]

Oh, yes.

[Rachel Maddow]

Not being able to get anything straight in any of its marquee primaries, let alone these lesser watched, lower on the ballot races. But this is a mess.

[Michael Steele]

Patents on backwards. And they're tight. And they're tight because they are hurting some people right now. And this is a very good example of a party that has imploded over the last year or so. There's no organizational structure. There's no discipline. There's no discipline. It's critical.

[Rachel Maddow]

Why did the Michigan Republican Party implode?

[Michael Steele]

Because it was all about the money and the power grab. Who's up, who's down, who has access to the White House, who's in favor with Trump. You know, the Trumpers in the Michigan party wanted to run the party. And you know, the mainstays, the folks who've done the battles and been in the wars, you know, they're like, no, we're not gonna win because this is Michigan.

[Peter]

Didn't they have like a two popes situation?

[Michael Steele]

They had like a two. Yes, they did.

[Peter]

Yes.

[Michael Steele]

They had two chairmen. They had African Americans claiming to be chairman. Exactly. And so they went through this whole thing. They never cleaned out all the pipes from that because, as you know, in politics, things get stopped up and messed up and it doesn't work its way through the system. And people on the ground still have hard feelings about what happened. And so people aren't working, people aren't helping, they're not organizing. And so you have a candidate who they don't even have a picture for. All right.

[Rachel Maddow]

Who's not in the race, that race,

[Michael Steele]

not in the race at 50.9% over

[Rachel Maddow]

the Trump endorsed candidate who sent in his picture.

[Michael Steele]

Exactly.

[Ali Velshi]

Well, you know what happens in that situation now, and correct me if I'm wrong, but if the no picture gentleman wins, if it holds, then because he has withdrawn, but his name is still on the ballot, I think under Michigan law, becomes a vacancy in nomination. And so the party will then select the nominee.

[Michael Steele]

And that's when the fun will ensue again. Yes.

[Peter]

Can I say something about this race? This, what, Lawrence race? So, you know, Will Lawrence is clearly the most progressive candidate right. In this race. Now, he was the subject of one of my favorite super PAC attack ads of the entire cycle, which I think sort of to me illustrates what I find so sort of insidious about the way super PACs have come to operate in these primaries. It was a. The. The crush MAGA pack, which was sort of associated with the kind of Democratic party leadership that didn't want the most progressive candidate winning in a primary for a swing Session, which, again, that's not a crazy idea strategically. But what they did was they tried to attack him as, like, a fake progressive. And they ran an ad that says he invested thousands with Wall street, big oil, and data centers. Now he has a $10,000 retirement account total.

[Rachel Maddow]

A total.

[Peter]

He has $10,000 total retirement.

[Rachel Maddow]

He's also, like, 14 years old.

[Peter]

He's very young. But the point. Here's. Here's why I want to put a fine point on this. The point wasn't to say to voters, hey, guys, this guy is too left for this district. It's a bad idea to nominate him.

[Ali Velshi]

No.

[Peter]

Instead, it was to try to trick voters into being like, no, he's secretly a sellout. You really want the progressive person. It's not that guy who invests in big oil. And I think there's something just really insidious about trying to trick voters with super PAC money, which is not to say to come in and be like, hey, here's my argument on the issue of the day. I think we saw this in the New York race where the guy who wanted to regulate AI was getting attacked by the AI Superpower PAC for being in bed with AI. It's like, no, no, no. You wait a second. That's not what you actually think.

[Rachel Maddow]

This is the anonymous money.

[Peter]

You should make your arguments to people straightforwardly. You should say, guys, he's too left for the district. Or in the case of the Abdul Al Said, we think his policies on Israel are bad. He is not supportive enough of Israel. Instead of everyone going around and sort of using this super PAC money to make these sort of arguments that they don't actually even believe in to try to trick voters. And what you end up with in this case is that Will Lawrence has won the district.

[Ali Velshi]

Now I'm like, super PACs also need some better strategists because that argument is not. It's clearly not informed by the people in the district.

[Peter]

Yeah.

[Ali Velshi]

Because if you were informed by the people in the district, you would know that that is not the most effective messaging for the district. Because, I mean, Will Lawrence. I mean, he ran a very interesting campaign. So did the other candidates. This is a district, though, that you need to win. Livingston County. You got to win Eaton. You got to get places in Clinton counties, Lansing and East Lans. The county has become more geographically diverse. And he has also said some things about black voters that are like, I don't know if Will Lawrence can cobble together the coalition necessary to beat the incumbent, but we're gonna find out. Shortly, I say that as somebody in terms of like needing better consultants for the super pac. I also used to be a consultant for a super pac.

[Peter]

And the other thing.

[Ali Velshi]

So you know, the other thing about

[Peter]

that I would say to the, you know, Abdullah Sayed and Bernie Sanders endorsed, they have a theory of the case about why that strand of politics can work in swing districts and in swing states. They do have a theory. And now it's like, okay, test, time to put the theory into practice because this is a gettable seat. So let's from theory to praxis. Here we go.

[Rachel Maddow]

If you think that this can work, now's the time to show it. Let's check back in with Chris Jansing live from Abdullah Sayed election headquarters in Michigan, where things still sound celebratory, although I'm guessing since we last spoke to you, Chris, things have gotten a little more tense.

[Chris Jansing]

Let me say this. I think a good playlist is key to keeping people engaged. So that's been helpful here.

[DSW Advertiser]

I don't know who, who to credit

[Chris Jansing]

with the playlist, but I just got a text again from inside the room where they're watching the results. And I think this is a reaction to the report on the early voting, 40,000 ballots that came in in Detroit that heavily favored Haley Stevens. And what they wrote to me is the Detroit tabulation show election day voting breaking very favorably for them. So they feel good about that. But I also ran into in the crowd a young guy who is actually in charge of their canvassing. And I was out with him for a little while yesterday. And I said, you know, what do you have? What's your final. The primary is over. And I mentioned earlier, I think that they had 12,000 volunteers. Well, they knocked on 225,000 doors. This guy alone knocked on 21,008 doors. Now, anybody who follows politics knows that doors knocked are not engagement arrangements. But they're finding that people not only are answering more, but want to talk more. They are more open because of their own lived experience to having a conversation about health care, about the economy, about the things that Abdul Al Sayyad is talking about. And I found it really interesting when we were having a conversation about sort of this return to the ground game, you know, after so much money was spent on not just television and on alternate media. But, you know, they just have so much technology now. And Abdul El Sayed believes that kind of like his basic premise is that you have to return to the roots of the Democratic Party. You have to be a party for the people. You need to be as part of that, returned to your roots, which is talking to people, hearing what future constituents have to say to you. And so he feels good about the fact that so many conversations have been had with this young army of volunteers, many of whom, I should say, told me yesterday and today that, number one, obviously, they believe he's going to win tonight, but that they're willing to do whatever needs to be done. They're not done knocking on doors. They're not not done canvassing. So that's a very important thing. I also heard Ali Vitale's report that the crowd was thinning, and there was a point here at which the crowd started to thin a little bit. This is a 100-year-old building, the Majestic Theater, and let's just say that the air conditioning system is challenged. So I thought maybe people were leaving because then I lost my jacket. Actually, there's a bar in quotes out in the lobby, which people have been going to. And I'm reporting this only for you because you made me one of the best cocktails of my life. Rachel Maddow. They have three mocktails. Three mocktails. The money out of politics, the money in your pocket, and the Medicare for all, obviously, which is his campaign slogan. They are $6 each. But these folks have been here for four hours. They're thirsty. No food available for sale at the bar. Rachel.

[DSW Advertiser]

Oh, wow.

[Rachel Maddow]

All right. So we're getting into the limits of human endurance. When you combine the excitement, the endorphins, the suspense, the close quarters, the excellent playlists, the desire to move your feet, and the lack of air conditioning and no food. I get you put all those things together and it's a biology test.

[Chris Jansing]

Here's my fan.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yeah. All right, Chris.

[Beautyrest Advertiser]

All right.

[Rachel Maddow]

Well, hang tight. Hydrate, my friends. Hydrate. We'll be back with you as we get in more results. That's excellent. We are told by our election unit, interestingly, that in Michigan, as we're continuing to watch this very, very close race, we are told by our election unit that we believe there's more of the advance vote still to count in Michigan than there is day of vote still to count. So if the theory of the case is right, that people who voted today broke disproportionately for Al Said, the fact that there's more advance vote left to count would be good news to Haley Stevens supporters. That said, Al said is a little bit ahead of Haley Stevens right now with 56% of the vote in. We're going to get a little more nuance and perspective on this from our friend Eugene Daniels, who's been doing his own reporting on this, including talking with folks on the Haley Stevens campaign. We've got the latest news and numbers from Michigan and that new reporting right after this. Quick break. This is down to the Line.

[DSW Advertiser]

You know that thing where you get an amazing pair of shoes at a really great price and want to tell everyone about it?

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

Yeah.

[DSW Advertiser]

So do we here at Designer Shoe Warehouse. We'll give you something to brag about, like the latest styles from brands you love or the trends everyone's obsessing over or shoes that make you feel like, well, you. So go ahead, show off a little. Find shoes that get you and prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today. DSW, let us surprise you.

[Beautyrest Advertiser]

A beautyrest mattress gives you unparalleled motion separation, isolating movement with our pocketed coil technology while providing individualized support for every sleeping position. People at their best get their beauty rest for 100 years.

[Rachel Maddow]

Soma Intimates presents Boob Therapy with model Candace Huffine.

[Soma Intimates Advertiser]

The biggest problem is no one's wearing the right size. For years I thought I'm a 38 double D. Turns out I'm a 40 DD and it makes all the difference in the world. Get in your chat and be like, ladies, when was the last time we all got like a fresh profit in it's time because it matters. They might be like, girl, what's gotten into you lately? And you're like, my bra profits. I'm Candace Huffine and this was my SOMA Boob therapy session.

[Rachel Maddow]

Sirius XM listeners get an additional 20 off. Use code serious20 in stores and soma.com It's 11:42pm East coast time and this is the status in the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan right now. You see, the lead for Abdul Al Said is just over 22,000. Joining us now is Eugene Daniels who's been in touch tonight with the Haley Stevens campaign as they've seen these these numbers ping around. Eugene, what are you hearing from folks?

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

They're feeling a lot better, Rachel, than

[Michael Steele]

they were feeling earlier.

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

I think you can always tell as a reporter how the campaigns are feeling based on whether or not they answer your calls. And at the beginning of the night they weren't and now they're answering. And I will say one of the things that I found really interesting and something that they continue to push was her rural vote is that at the end of the day, they are actually kind of surprised by how strong she is doing in the rural vote. I also talked to some folks who are the data crunchers, some of the best in the country I've been told. And those are those folks in Michigan they're anticipating very late, late night, even 4am Multiple people said, including Congresswoman Debbie Dingo, who knows the state state better than almost anyone who I just spoke with. And something that's really interesting for folks that are kind of waiting for Wayne county and trying to figure out how to parse through this Detroit, Dearborn and Dearborn Heights. So Dearborn Heights and Dearborn, he's probably going to do really well there. El Sayed Detroit is where she might do really well if we start seeing numbers these folks are telling me Rachel, where 20 to 25k she nets that that is where you're going to start seeing a really good, possibly a really good night for Haley in a way that folks really didn't think that that was going said and the Haley campaign has said this to me that at the end of the day the absentee ballots that folks have been using, the increased usage of that this time around has been something that she has benefited from because in those rural areas TV still matters, right? You can't get to all of those areas and shake hands with everyone and people don't spend a lot of time there. But the amount of money that's spent on TV there matters. I will just caution folks, folks on the Haley side who are super excited that her Oakland numbers weren't great and they know that. And so if she's able to make that up in Wayne county, she will have a much better night I think than people will say. Either way this is going to be much closer than the polls were saying than folks I was talking to on both campaigns earlier today thought it was going to be because at the end of the day the voters have, as we say all the time here, have the last word and they have been voting in different ways and I think people even in Michigan anticipated and have been ready from the rural areas than folks anticipated.

[Rachel Maddow]

Rachel and Eugene, this is a question you may not have asked but just in case cuz it's been a discussion we've been having here on set. Any theory of the case that you're hearing from informed people in Michigan or from the Stevens campaign specifically about why the polling might not be necessarily have not just an individual poll but sort of the whole last tranche of polls heading into tonight may have overstated the support for Syed.

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

Part of the reason I was talking to a couple people who I did ask Them this exact same question. Because I think the last poll we saw there was like a 15 point. He was winning by 15 points. And we were all a little iffy about that one, and especially in a primary like this one. But what they said is you have to look at who they're polling, right? Who are the folks that they're actually talking to. And some of the times in some of these polls where he was winning a lot, they were kind of over indexing and kind of taking his theory of the case that the Democratic base and the more importantly the folks that were gonna vote in this Democratic primary were going to be different than in the past primaries. And so that's, you know, I talked to someone who really knows the state and said, quote, I'm pissed at the pollsters.

[Rachel Maddow]

Oh, wow. Okay. Well, yeah, I mean, this has been a recurring theme over the course of my lifetime, covering Democratic electoral outcomes, particularly ones that are surprise honest. And it says, it's not a happy story to tell you, but anytime anybody's telling you that the reason they're gonna win is because of all the young people who are turning out to vote for them, that is often something that you need to check twice before you cut once. Because that is. There's a reason that older voters have disproportionate influence in every election. It's because older voters vote more reliably than young voters do. And if you're banking on young voters, you also have to make sure they actually vot they're not just telling you that they will. Eugene, this is totally invaluable. Please stay on the phones. Let us know as soon as you got something. We'll have you back on the air as soon as we can get you.

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

I will, I will.

[Rachel Maddow]

Thanks, Eugene. Peter, I want to go back to you. I know you've actually got some more conversations that you had with voters in Saginaw, Michigan, about how they were thinking about the race over how they were thinking about the other side. Can you walk us through some of that that you heard from voters?

[Eugene Daniels]

So again, the reason we went to Saginaw, Michigan, which is about 100 miles northwest of Detroit, is cause this is a place where they pick political winners. They've got it right five times for President Obama, twice. Trump, Biden, Trump. We went there. They picked Alyssa Slotkin by nine votes over Mike Rogers four years ago or two years ago. She ended up winning the state by fewer than 20,000. Here was one of the voices. We met these folks. They make popcorn, by the way. Okay, so you'll I think you'll enjoy this at this hour while getting a little bit hungry. Here's what, here's what some of them said in terms of advice to the Democratic Party broadly. What do you say to those national Democrats right now? What do you say to Democrats, what do you say to Democrats around the country right now who are watching this

[Ali Velshi]

race closely, have faith in their voters, listen to their voters and consider all aspects, not just big employers and what

[Rachel Maddow]

those dollars look like for them, but

[Ali Velshi]

what the small businesses and how what their decisions are doing are impacting us.

[Eugene Daniels]

So one month in, your advice to anybody looking to start a business right,

[Ali Velshi]

Right now, do it. Scared. You can absolutely be fearful, but you just fear less.

[Eugene Daniels]

It seems like there's a message in there for Democrats right now, right?

[Ali Velshi]

Absolutely. Move forward with what we know needs to be done and stand 10 toes deep in it.

[Eugene Daniels]

Stand 10 toes deep in it. You heard her say there. The gist was she's awesome.

[Peter]

As she started.

[Eugene Daniels]

Well, first of all, here, cake's the great. I got you some popcorn if you need. It was made in a factory with nuts. Just a warning to anybody on the set here.

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

Okay.

[Rachel Maddow]

Does anybody need me not to open this because it has nuts?

[Peter]

Nope.

[Rachel Maddow]

Good. I'll be back in 20 minutes.

[Eugene Daniels]

The important point she made there, right, is she said as a new small business owner, she said we gotta be fearless in how we run our business. And she said the message to Democrats was they need to fear less. They need to lean more in to what they want, not just to be

[Rachel Maddow]

how they have faith in their voters,

[Eugene Daniels]

have faith in the voters. That's why we talk about the polls so much here. That's why this was so invaluable. Be on the ground with the actual people who are making this decision, you know, that we're talking about tonight. And I spoke to her again within the last couple of hours. She's the one who told me that if Haley Stevens ended up winning, she would have to support Haley Stevens. But what else was striking that she said in these conversations is we think about this in big terms, in national terms. She views this in terms that affect her family. She was worried about tariffs, the impact on her business. She's worried about affordability, how much it cost for her daughter, who was there, a lovely 20 year old. She was outstanding. She made the popcorn. The fear she has for her future, these were the things that affect them at home. Not the things I think that are sort of, you know, just bigger in the sky topics, the things that really affect them at their kitchen table and as it turns out, at the table where they make this popcorn.

[Rachel Maddow]

I was thinking about, I mean, the geography of Michigan right now and that affecting.

[Peter]

It's delicious.

[Rachel Maddow]

Okay, I'm talking right now, so I'm not going to do this, but it's ready.

[Ali Velshi]

We definitely need something crazy.

[Rachel Maddow]

Frenchie on live television, day one of

[Ali Velshi]

broadcast, who is Myrl Tartel.

[Rachel Maddow]

Think about the geography of Michigan and these affordability issues. I mean, Michigan, not only, I mean, Haley Stevens has this great story to tell, right? That she was the chief of staff to the auto rescue effort during the Great Recession, saved 200,000 jobs in Michigan during the recession. That said, United Auto Workers did not endorse her. Endorsed Abdullah Sayed. Michigan has this incredible, both sides, you know, really interesting role in the tariff scandal with Trump. These poorly thought out, seemingly random number generated tariffs and those cut lots of different directions in Michigan. But I was also thinking about that bridge, right? So this bridge, the international bridge between Michigan and Canada, where there's this one totally dysfunctional property bridge that's run by a family that walked into the White House and gave Donald Trump a million dollar campaign check. And he turned around and said, okay, we're not opening the competing bridge. That is going to make life so much materially more easy for Michigan businesses large and small. And so this stuff that we think of as like Washington drama in Michigan, it's shoe leather stuff.

[Eugene Daniels]

You're right. I said this earlier. I repeat it because she brought it up again. We talk about ice, we talk about immigration enforcement. Ten days ago, there was an ICE crackdown there. Nine construction workers were arrested. She said she passed it just a couple of days ago driving home. The car, the engine was still running as she passed this spot. This stuff is tangible to these people in these communities. It has real impact. And ultimately it affects the way that they make their decisions and the way they vote on nights like tonight.

[Michael Steele]

So it will matter to Democrats both in the state and nationally, but especially nationally, to look at the narratives that are taking shape coming out of this primary race tonight. How not so much look at the horse race of it all, but look at what moved the voters, what actually animated them to give a damn, to get up, to take that time off from work to your point, and to actually go stand in a line for however long, do the thing, do the vote, to make it known what they wanted. And if you're able to capture that. And it was a very important lesson for me in 2009, looking at 2010, watching what voters were Saying in New Jersey and Virginia in 2009 gave me a clue of how to begin to talk to voters in 2010. Because. Because the message was the same. And so that reality is going to be true across the board here for a lot of voters across the country, not just in the hamlets of Michigan, but in very small and big places elsewhere. And if they can make that case, again, a case Republicans cannot make. And I say that as a very frustrated Republican with my own party. I said, I don't say how you guys spent the last two years listening to this idiot in the White House who gave you nothing to tell voters. Yeah, the only thing he wanted to talk about was a reflecting pool and a ballroom, renovations and renovations when the country. The only renovation they're trying to do is to their own kitchen tables.

[Eugene Daniels]

These folks I met talked about the housing bill recently. The biggest bipartisan effort.

[Peter]

Right.

[Eugene Daniels]

Recently, the big difference maker for folks as it relates to affordable housing in this country. And the president refused to show up for it.

[Rachel Maddow]

You know that stuff, he said it bored him.

[Eugene Daniels]

He said it bored him.

[Michael Steele]

Bored him.

[Rachel Maddow]

Yeah. It's amazing. Crazy. We're talking about Saginaw County. What do we have for results in

[Election Analyst]

Saginaw county vote is in 58.2% to Haley she Stevens 37.3 to Abdul El Sayed. So she's doing very well there. Again, still only 45% in. We're still looking at. We've got 61% in the entire state. Abdul said lead has increased. He's now closing in on a 30,000 vote lead. He's been between 20 and 25,000 all night. Let's go to Detroit to Wayne county again. Again, almost half the vote is in now 48%. Haley Stevens is in the lead, but her lead has narrowed substantially. She has a 12th and remember, she jumped way ahead in Wayne County. We do believe, however, that the outstanding vote, it's above 600,000 Democratic votes right now to count. We believe that more of them may be advanced votes than day of votes. Now in Wayne county, specifically in Wayne county and the rationale for discussing that is what you just said. The advanced votes tend to be older voters. The young voters that you're depending on are typically day of voters. And Abdul Said's been banking on those day of voters. So if it's true that most of the outstanding vote is advanced vote, that tends to favor Haley Stevens, she does have a statewide deficit to overcome because Abdullah Al Said is still there. And like I mentioned, we still are waiting for some vote from Key areas of of Detroit, of Wayne county that we haven't seen yet, including Hamtramck, which is likely to favor, Abdul Al said. We do have we have seen a good amount of vote from from Dearborn and Dearborn Heights. Those areas which have come in, they're not just favoring, Abdul Al said. They're coming in at about 80, 20 in his favor. That's where he expected to do very well. But this area, this actual central part of Detroit, we're still waiting for a good deal of vote, advanced vote and day of vote.

[Rachel Maddow]

In the US there's a break in every 26 seconds. But when intruders step near Simplisafe, home security steps up.

[Eugene Daniels (Reporter)]

Stop.

[Peter]

This is Simplisafe.

[Eugene Daniels]

Police are on the way.

[Chris Jansing]

Using AI alerts, US based live agents

[Rachel Maddow]

help deter break ins. SimpliSafe no long term contracts. Save 50% on your new system with

[DSW Advertiser]

professional models [e-mail] sxm or with promo

[Eugene Daniels]

code sxm Outdoor deterrence requires a Simplisafe

[Peter]

Active Guard Outdoor Protection plan starting at 49.99amonth.

[Eugene Daniels]

Visit simplisafe.com licenses for alarm license information. Tennessee2012.