The Rachman Review

Episode: 2025: A Year of Chaos and Confusion
Host: Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
Guests: Leslie Vinjamuri (Chicago Council on Global Affairs), Daniel Drezner (Tufts University), James Crabtree (Author)
Date: December 25, 2025

Overview

In this special year-end episode of The Rachman Review, Gideon Rachman gathers three leading geopolitical analysts to dissect the tumultuous events of 2025—a year marked by the second term of Donald Trump as US President, unprecedented shifts in global alliances, economic uncertainty, and heightened international tensions. Drawing on their expertise, the panel explores the impact of Trump’s leadership style, the unraveling of traditional alliances, changing dynamics in the Asia-Pacific, the new contours of the US approach to trade, and the prospects for global democracy in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Trump Presidency: Defining Themes of 2025

• Daniel Drezner's Event of the Year: “Liberation Day” Tariffs

  • Trump’s dramatic imposition of 20% tariffs in April 2025, targeting a wide array of countries—including some, like Diego Garcia, that don’t even export to the US—was described as “emblematic of Trump's willingness to basically do anything in a unilateral and sort of quick fix way.”
  • Trump’s justification: Market turmoil, admitting later he paused tariffs because "the bond markets had freaked out," highlighting the slapdash nature of his policymaking.

    “It was the whole pageantry of the thing… we tariffed Diego Garcia, which includes a US Military base, so we were technically putting a tariff on the US Military.” — Daniel Drezner [03:33]

  • The legal basis for these actions is shaky, relying on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court might strike down.

• Leslie Vinjamuri: The Inaugural Speech and Alliance Upheaval

  • Trump’s 2025 inaugural speech was a seismic shock to traditional allies, notably suggesting "Canada should be the 51st state" while snubbing talk of China as a “pacing threat.”

    “When you start taking Canada as your first whipping boy in your inaugural speech… it was a very clear signal that those longstanding, deep, multilayered relationships just simply don't and didn't matter to this US President.” — Leslie Vinjamuri [04:59]

  • Marked a “stunning and shocking reversal of fortunes” for America’s allies; Trump’s antipathy toward traditional partners was seen as visceral.

• James Crabtree: The Role Reversal with China and India

  • Contrary to expectations, US-China relations improved, with rapprochement symbolized by talk of a “G2” meeting, while US-India ties deteriorated sharply.

    “At the end of the year, you have US China relations in the best position that they've been in for a long time, and US India relations in the worst position they've been in probably for 20 years. I don't think anybody saw that coming.” — James Crabtree [06:43]

  • Trump’s swings in foreign policy often appeared driven by personal grievances—e.g., anger at India for not giving him credit in the India-Pakistan conflict or nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Economic Fallout: Tariffs, Protectionism, and Inconsistency

• Tariffs’ Domestic and Global Impact
  • Inflation has risen from ~2.5% to over 3% since Inauguration Day, but the impact has been softened by AI-driven investment booms and stockpiling before tariffs.

    “The United States has actually not done terribly well as a result of the tariffs. But that's been masked by the fact that we've also been in the middle of the largest investment boom in quite some time due to AI...” — Daniel Drezner [09:03]

  • The feared global trade war hasn’t fully materialized; Trump has made selective trade deals, e.g., Nvidia with China, underlining a “complete lack of consistency.”
• American Attitudes Towards Tariffs Shift
  • Chicago Council polling: Public support for tariffs as a foreign policy tool dropped from 64% to 44% in a year, with rural Trump supporters especially affected.

    “This year, 44% [of Americans viewed tariffs as effective], it’s dropped 20%.” — Leslie Vinjamuri [11:17]

The Duality of Trump: Peacemaker and Disruptor

• Complex Approach to Allies and Adversaries
  • Trump actively undermines relationships with allies (Canada, Europe) while making overtures to “adversaries" (Russia, China).

    “Sorting things out in the Middle east so that you can focus on China, sorting things out in Ukraine so you can focus on Russia, and kind of letting Europe and Canada fall by the wayside, it's not so hard to explain.” — Leslie Vinjamuri [13:18]

• Business, Strategy, or Personality?
  • Possible drivers: Transactional business interests, a desire for a new strategic balance (especially with Russia), and personal affinities (notably with Putin and Xi).

    “He likes this guy, Vladimir Putin… we didn’t understand it in his first administration, we don't understand it now.” — Leslie Vinjamuri [14:56]

US-China Relations: Trade-offs and Temporary Lulls

• Chinese Leverage and US Strategic Calculation
  • China counters US tariffs with rare earths restrictions, pushing for temporary economic stabilization over contentious issues like Taiwan.

    “America hit them with tariffs and semiconductor restrictions. China replied with rare earths restrictions, and the US had to de-escalate.” — James Crabtree [15:54]

  • Trump’s willingness to trade off geopolitical issues for better economic deals is consistent, especially regarding China—sometimes deprioritizing issues like Taiwan and human rights for economic expediency.

    “Trump has been perfectly willing to trade off geopolitical bones of contention in the Asia Pacific for a better economic deal with China.” — Daniel Drezner [17:10]

  • Influence of advisors: Real power dynamics often arise “because he doesn’t care and someone under him cares very much,” as seen in Venezuela policy shaped by Marco Rubio.

America’s Shifting Global Orientation

• Demographic and Ideological Shifts
  • The administration’s actions reflect a “spheres of influence” worldview and 19th-century notions of power (territory, industrial might), with a lack of interest in liberal values or European partnerships.

    “The Trump coalition is not keen about that shift in demographics. In fact, they are trying to fight it as much as humanly possible.” — Daniel Drezner [19:26]

• Hostility Toward European Allies
  • US government openly accuses Europe of “civilizational erasure” and suggests future alignment only with pro-nationalist, anti-immigrant far-right parties.

    “This is an administration that suggests that it wants to focus on sovereignty and not values… now is going completely deep in on the values debate.” — Leslie Vinjamuri [21:48]

Anxiety Among America’s Asian Allies

• Roller Coaster Year for Allies
  • Japan and Korea, once model allies, felt “shocked” by tariffs and neglect; some remedial actions followed, but trust remains tenuous.

    “The Allies of America are always nervous about American perfidy and abandonment, but I think at the moment they're particularly nervous and with very good reason...” — James Crabtree [25:16]

  • Regional allies fear abandonment if the US and China reach a bilateral understanding (“G2”), especially concerning Taiwan’s security.
• Implications for Indo-Pacific Balance
  • Without US backing, regional countries “[can’t] handle the Chinese on their own,” and there is real anxiety Trump may trade away Taiwan’s security for economic concessions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Unpredictable Approach:

  “The one consistent thing about this has been the complete lack of consistency.” — Daniel Drezner [10:15]

• On the Shocking Inaugural Speech:

  “When people’s jaws dropped, it was really a stunning and shocking reversal of fortunes for many of America’s allies.” — Leslie Vinjamuri [05:35]

• On China’s Leverage:

  “Chinese strategy has worked pretty well. America hit them with tariffs and semiconductor restrictions. China replied with rare earth restrictions, and the US had to de-escalate.” — James Crabtree [15:54]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump’s Inaugural Speech and Tone Shift – [04:28-05:35]
• US Tariffs and Economic Impact – [02:21-10:24]
• Collapse of Traditional Alliances – [04:28-06:59], [21:07-23:19]
• US-China and US-India Role Reversal – [05:38-07:24]
• Asian Allies’ Anxiety – [24:02-26:35]
• Predictions for 2026: World Cup, AI Bubble, Democracy – [26:35-29:50]
• Ukraine War Outlook – [29:50-31:36]

Predictions for 2026

• Daniel Drezner:

  • Will the AI investment bubble “pop,” and what broad economic effects will that have?
  • How will Trump’s approach affect global events like the World Cup, amid American nativism and security obsession?

• Leslie Vinjamuri:

  • The “highest stakes year” for US democracy since WWII: Will Trump further test the rule of law?
  • How will Americans and institutions respond during the midterms?

• James Crabtree:

  • Crucial Trump-Xi meeting: Will Taiwan’s security be traded away?
  • US push for a MAGA-friendly UN Secretary-General could reshape multilateralism.
  • Ukraine’s fate depends on Trump’s willingness to support resistance versus imposing a settlement.

Tone & Style

The dialogue is both analytical and urgent, with all panelists expressing a sense of unease amid “chaos and confusion.” There’s a recurring theme that the world order many took for granted is rapidly fracturing, and that Trump’s presidency—driven by shifting personal whims, transactional deals, and disregard for traditional alliances—has upended norms more swiftly and shockingly than anyone anticipated. Panelists maintain the Financial Times’s trademark blend of dry wit and clear-eyed analysis, while underscoring the stakes for the coming year.

This episode is essential listening for anyone seeking to understand the new world disorder as we enter 2026—and how the decisions of a few, driven by personal motives as much as strategy or principle, are setting the course for global affairs.