The Rachman Review – "Are we any closer to peace in Ukraine?"

Date: May 1, 2025
Host: Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
Guest: Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London

Episode Overview

In this episode, Gideon Rachman discusses the prospects for peace in Ukraine amid the ongoing war and the recent Trump administration peace plan. His guest, Sir Lawrence Freedman, provides in-depth analysis of the conflicting positions of the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, and explores how the conflict has redefined modern warfare and geostrategic calculations. The conversation moves from the specifics of the Trump peace plan to fundamental questions about forever wars and the long-term prospects for resolution.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Analysis of the Trump Peace Plan

Timestamps: 00:42–03:29

• The Trump peace plan, as articulated by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, suggests Ukraine accept the current territorial realities (de facto Russian control of occupied territories and non-NATO status).
• Sir Lawrence Freedman points out that while these expectations are unpalatable for Ukraine, they're familiar issues:

  "Ukraine is expected to accept, at least de facto, that the Russians have what they have and then they're not going to get it back in the near future, and that they're not going to be members of NATO. And both of those conditions are clearly problematic for Ukraine, but they're not new and they're not surprising." (01:11)

• The plan lacks other aggressive Russian demands (like Ukrainian disarmament), which, from Freedman's perspective, makes it equally unsatisfactory for Moscow.
• Controversial aspects include potential US recognition of Crimea's annexation and a call to lift all sanctions and reintegrate Russia into the world economy.

2. Reality of Sanctions and Feasibility

Timestamps: 03:29–05:27

• Freedman emphasizes that any promise to lift sanctions is not solely within US control—European agreement is crucial.
• Both Ukrainians and Russians are frustrated:

  "There are limits on how far Trump can deliver either the Ukrainians or his allies." (03:29)

• Despite discussions of optimism, Freedman remains doubtful about any imminent peace.

3. The “Blame Game” in Diplomacy

Timestamps: 05:27–07:41

• Negotiations have devolved into attempts to assign blame for failure, with Zelensky trying to maintain US support.
• US fluctuations and unpredictability in support are highlighted, and without significant future aid from Congress, Ukraine is bracing for reduced US assistance.
• Despite resource challenges, Ukraine's ability to manufacture its own drones and munitions has improved, increasing resilience.

4. Evolution of Warfare: Drones and Defense

Timestamps: 07:41–10:04

• Ukrainian confidence has grown due to the effective use of drones in defensive operations.
• Freedman notes a historical parallel:

  "Clausewitz... said centuries ago that defense is the stronger form of warfare, and it has always been." (08:14)

• Offensives have stalled on both sides; drones have made it harder to launch surprise or large-scale attacks due to improved battlefield transparency.

5. Old vs. New Methods of War: A Hybrid Battlefield

Timestamps: 10:04–11:08

• Despite technological advances like drones and digital targeting, aspects of the war resemble World War I—entrenched lines and high casualties for minimal territorial gains.

• "You almost have different layers all at the same time... artillery... trenches... digital artificial intelligence stuff... mixtures and the smart stuff is also very expensive." (10:24)

6. Lessons on Nuclear Deterrence

Timestamps: 11:08–13:05

• Theoretical models of nuclear deterrence have played out: neither NATO nor Russia have directly escalated, despite threats.
• Freedman suggests the Biden administration may have been overly cautious in response to Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling.
• Overuse of nuclear threats, he argues, has diminished Russia’s deterrent credibility.

7. Disunity and Chaos in US Policy

Timestamps: 13:05–15:38

• The Trump administration’s Ukraine team is fragmented, with envoys trusted by only one side or the other, leading to diplomatic gridlock.

• "I think the administration's all over the place. And it's also one of the problems it's got is it's just understaffed." (13:34)

• This chaotic structure hampers meaningful progress.

8. The Stalemate and Futility of a Quick Solution

Timestamps: 15:38–18:12

• Trump’s insistence that peace can be brokered quickly is at odds with reality—the positions of Ukraine and Russia remain fundamentally incompatible.
• Russia, despite minor territorial gains, faces increasing difficulty both militarily and economically.

• "They've gained, at enormous, enormous cost, about 1% extra Ukrainian territory since late 23. And the progress is even slower in recent months." (15:57)

• Putin needs not just territory but an acquiescent, disarmed Ukraine—something the US can't deliver.

9. The “Forever War” Dynamic

Timestamps: 18:12–20:49

• Russia may now be trapped in its own version of a “forever war,” mirroring the US’s experience in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• Ending the war would prompt a reckoning for the Kremlin with little to show for the immense loss of life and ruined territory.

• "My assumption... is that it's easier for Putin to stick with the war than to end it, because so long as he can keep it going, they find the recruits, they can fund it. You avoid the reckoning that comes when you're trying to explain what actually this war was for." (18:40)

• The stalemate persists, with no obvious exit for Moscow that would truly justify the war.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the reality of peace plans:

  "I don't see it as being as one sided as others who just see this as Trump doing Putin's bidding. This is not what Putin wants." – Sir Lawrence Freedman (03:29)

• On the changing nature of warfare:

  "Drones and so on mean that the battlefield is very transparent. So it's hard to move substantial forces around without these being noticed. And that makes offensives even harder." – Sir Lawrence Freedman (09:12)

• On nuclear deterrence:

  "I think many Russians feel that they undermine the credibility of their own deterrent by making so many menacing sounding threats that they could never really follow up." – Sir Lawrence Freedman (12:31)

• On political chaos in Washington:

  "I think the administration's all over the place... it's just understaffed. You just don't have the people, the expertise around." – Sir Lawrence Freedman (13:34)

• On the dilemma for Russia:

  "What territory you've gained is absolutely ruined because of the war. So I think the economic issue in particular should weigh heavily on the Kremlin and might make them worry about whether they can keep on going. But at the moment they don't have an obvious route out, which allows Putin to say this was worth it, and I'm not sure he'll ever get that." – Sir Lawrence Freedman (19:45)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:42: Rubio expresses administration's frustration with stalled peace process.
• 01:11–03:29: Freedman analyzes the Trump peace plan and its holes.
• 05:27–07:41: The impact of possible US withdrawal and Ukraine’s adaptation.
• 08:14: Freedman on the defensive strength and drone warfare.
• 11:32: Assessment of nuclear threats and deterrence in the war.
• 13:34: Insights into disorganization within US administration’s Ukraine policy.
• 15:38: Challenges of brokering peace given entrenched positions.
• 18:40: The “forever war” scenario for Russia.

Summary

This episode delivers a sobering assessment of the Ukraine war’s trajectory in 2025. Both the Trump peace plan and the broader US policy appear fragmented and complicated by conflicting interests and capabilities. The conflict’s military stalemate—exacerbated by technological advances such as drones—persists. Sir Lawrence Freedman’s analysis points to a future where neither side is likely to achieve their central objectives, and Russia, in particular, may be facing the prospect of a costly, indefinite conflict with no convincing solution in sight.

This is essential listening for anyone seeking to understand why peace in Ukraine remains elusive, and what it will take to shift the current deadlock.