The Rachman Review

Episode Title: Can diplomacy avert a US-Iran war?
Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Andrew England (filling in for Gideon Rachman)
Guest: Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the rapidly escalating tensions between the US and Iran following a catastrophic crackdown on anti-regime protests in Iran. Host Andrew England discusses with Sanam Vakil the prospects for diplomacy, the pressures facing the Iranian regime, the calculus behind US threats under President Trump, the potential for war, and the future of Iran’s government and society. The discussion provides detailed, nuanced insight into the military, diplomatic, and social dynamics at play—as well as the lived experience inside Iran.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Backdrop — US-Iran Tensions and Brutal Crackdown

• [00:18–01:53]
  • Deadly protests erupted across Iran in December over economic hardship, morphing into anti-regime unrest.
  • Iranian authorities used massive force, with thousands reportedly killed: “A 48-hour period … that will go down in the history books as one of the bloodiest clampdowns on street protests in modern times.”
  • President Trump initially threatened direct intervention to protect protestors and shifted toward a broader strategy:

    “Hopefully Iran will quickly come to the table and negotiate a fair and equitable deal. No nuclear weapons … there was Operation Midnight Hammer, a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse.” (President Trump, quoted by the host, [01:53])

2. US Military Buildup and Iran Strategy

• [02:15–03:39] Sanam Vakil:
  • Trump is exerting economic and military pressure—“not quite taking the Venezuela copy-paste model”—but encircling Iran with sanctions and outright threats.
  • The buildup of US forces signals a willingness to deploy military force, but the ultimate aim is a “comprehensive deal” rebalancing the US-Iran relationship, focusing on Iran’s nuclear activities, missiles, and regional actions.

    “He’s seeking a comprehensive deal with the Islamic Republic to alter the adversarial relationship … perhaps force Tehran to concede on its nuclear program and … beyond that on ballistic missiles and its regionally destabilizing role.” ([02:38])

3. Prospects for Diplomacy and Regional Mediation

• [03:39–05:43]
  • New US-Iran talks scheduled, first since the 12-Day War with Israel last June.
  • Diplomatic engagement by regional actors like the Gulf states and Turkey is “indicative of the desperation and the deep concern” over potential conflict spillover, with fears for oil markets, investment, and violent unrest.

    “What is really interesting is so many regional players are taking such an active role in trying to mediate. Will it lead to a deal? … The odds are slim. This is not a regime that has negotiated too many successful deals with the U.S.” ([03:56])

4. Key Sticking Points: The Nuclear File and Iranian Concessions

• [05:43–09:22]
  • Talks focus primarily on Iran’s nuclear capability. Trump demands permanent access to facilities and total surrender of enrichment capacity—a red line for Iran.
  • Iran’s recent military setbacks may provide “wiggle room,” but real concessions hinge on pressure at the top:

    “Iran can commit to not reviving its program. What the US is seeking is permanent access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and stringent inspections ... But it again comes back to … whether there is enough consensus among the system … to understand that without signing on the dotted line, Iran will be subject to a military campaign…” ([07:57])

    • Supreme Leader Khamenei, whose personal ideology centers on defiance, faces intense pressure; conceding could be existential:

    “He might well support drinking the poison chalice, but that might poison him.” ([09:22])

5. Regime Vulnerability: Internal and External Pressures

• [10:01–12:43]
  • Iran is at an "inflection point": Regional proxies weakened, air defenses battered by Israel, severe economic and resource crises, and historic levels of domestic anger.

    “There are just too many interconnected, unsustainable pressures … that really have no policy solution to them.” ([10:49])

  • Massive loss of life in protests—officially 6,000, with some verifying 17,000—marks unprecedented state violence.
  • The regime’s survival may hinge on external sanctions relief and internal reform, neither of which are forthcoming.

6. Iranian Society: Reality vs Perception

• [12:43–15:01]
  • Iranian society is highly educated, entrepreneurial, globally connected, and vibrant despite the regime:

    “The media … doesn’t capture the vibrancy and dynamism of the Iranian population … it’s a population that has doubled … many family members go into exile. They know what outside life is like … highly educated and very entrepreneurial and aspirational.” ([13:05])

  • Rural/urban inequalities fuel unrest. Economic opening could unlock Iran’s potential, but predatory governance and systemic corruption suffocate development.

7. If Diplomacy Fails: Prospects for Regime Change or Collapse

• [15:34–18:37]
  • The regime’s control mechanisms (Revolutionary Guards, Basij militia) remain strong and loyal, with institutional structures to survive a leadership decapitation or assassination.
  • Full regime collapse is improbable despite pressure; instead, a “change in the regime” rather than regime change is likely.

    “What many analysts are forecasting is not regime change, but a change in the regime.... a post Khamenei Iran was never going to mirror Khamenei’s legacy.” ([17:34])

8. Social Fragmentation and National Resilience

• [18:56–21:17]
  • Speculation about catalyzing regime change via US/Israeli strikes is fraught: Past crises saw Iranians rally around the nation, if not the regime.

    “People rallied around each other and Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. … The protests we have just lived through have been incredibly fierce and ... anti Islamic Republic.” ([19:30])

  • Major risk: External military intervention might unleash ethnic and sectarian fragmentation, civil strife, mirroring Syria, Iraq, or Libya.

    “Iran is a very multiethnic society … 90 million people. … What would the risks of fragmentation, civil conflict be if there was a clear military push for regime change?” ([20:35])

9. Future of the Opposition

• [22:37–25:52]
  • There is no unified opposition inside Iran; regime has spent decades suppressing political alternatives.
  • Diaspora opposition is fragmented. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, enjoys some brand recognition but lacks internal grassroots organization:

    “For Reza Pahlavi to be a meaningful transition figure ... he has to establish an inclusive diaspora-based organization, and he has not yet done so.” ([24:29])

10. Outlook: More Protests Ahead

• [25:52–27:34]
  • Protests are seen as inevitable—they may become larger and more violent as underlying grievances remain unaddressed.

    “In my calculations … protests are inevitable really because the regime doesn’t have the policy tools to address the roots and grievances of the protests.” ([26:16])

  • “The fact that the protests continue to grow and become fiercer is a reflection that people are reaching boiling points.” ([27:34])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Drinking the poison chalice, but that might poison him.” — Sanam Vakil on Khamenei possibly conceding to the US ([09:22])
• “There are just too many interconnected, unsustainable pressures that really have no policy solution to them.” — Sanam Vakil on regime survival ([10:49])
• “What many analysts are forecasting is not regime change, but a change in the regime...” — Sanam Vakil ([17:34])
• “Two truths can be simultaneously a reality... Iranians worry US airstrikes could precipitate … fragmentation and violence that they will be paying the price for.” ([19:30])
• “For Reza Pahlavi to be a meaningful transition figure … he has to establish an inclusive diaspora-based organization, and he has not yet done so.” ([24:29])
• “Protests are inevitable really because the regime doesn’t have the policy tools to address the roots and grievances.” ([26:16])

Essential Timestamps

| Time | Segment | |:----------: |:---------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:18-01:53 | Setting the scene: Protests, US threats, context of crisis | | 02:38-03:39 | Trump’s strategic aims, US military buildup | | 03:56-05:43 | Regional diplomatic efforts, prospects for a deal | | 07:57-09:22 | Iran’s likely concessions, Supreme Leader’s dilemma | | 10:49-12:43 | Regime vulnerability, societal pressure, survival factors | | 13:05-15:01 | The real face of Iranian society | | 15:34-16:20 | Can military action spark regime collapse? | | 17:34-18:37 | Possible regime evolution, post-Khamenei scenarios | | 19:30-21:17 | National resilience, risk of civil conflict | | 24:29-25:52 | Diaspora opposition, Reza Pahlavi’s challenges | | 26:16-27:34 | Outlook for more protests, internal unrest |

Conclusion

Sanam Vakil argues that while the Iranian regime is under unprecedented internal and external strain, its institutional resilience remains strong; true regime collapse is unlikely in the near term. However, mounting pressures make further popular unrest inevitable, even as the regime’s ability—or willingness—to reform remains deeply limited. Diplomatic solutions would require the regime to accept humiliating concessions that cut against its founding ideology, creating a dangerous inflection point for both Iran and the broader region. The future could hold not sudden collapse, but a slow, volatile transformation with significant risk of civil conflict if a power vacuum emerges.