The Rachman Review

Episode Title: Europe's response to the threat from Trump
Release Date: March 13, 2025
Host: Gideon Rachman (Financial Times)
Guest: Arantxa Gonzalez (Dean of Sciences Po, Paris School of International Affairs; former Foreign Minister of Spain)

Overview

This episode examines how Europe is responding to a new era of transatlantic instability sparked by a resurgent Donald Trump and growing US unpredictability. Gideon Rachman interviews Arantxa Gonzalez, exploring whether Europe can establish greater autonomy—especially in defence, trade, and technology—amid threats from both Russia and the United States. The conversation covers Germany's pivotal role, UK-EU re-engagement, defence integration, common European debt, relations with China, and the future of the WTO.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What’s at Stake for Europe?

• Gonzalez frames the current period as “one of the biggest tests for Europe since its founding after the Second World War,” questioning whether Europe can move beyond reliance on the US and assert a more autonomous global role.
  • Quote:
    • “Do we still want to live in the shadows of the Second World War, or do we start a new phase of European integration and our own standing in the world? … The question is, will we sum up the political courage to, in a way, emancipate ourselves from this long shadow of the US and build a more autonomous Europe?”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 01:50)

2. Germany's Leadership and Shifting Dynamics

• The rise of Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is seen as pivotal for Europe.
• Gonzalez emphasizes the need for Germany—Europe’s “beating heart”—to drive collective action on defence and innovation.
  • Quote:
    • “When Germany is not well, Europe is not well. … Now Germany is saying that it wants to take its future, but also Europe’s future in its hands. And it’s a remarkable turn of events.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 02:57)

3. The UK’s Renewed Importance

• Despite Brexit, security threats are prompting closer UK-EU cooperation.
• Shared threats from Russia and a now unreliable US align UK and European interests in defence.
  • Quote:
    • “The UK is Europe. It may not be European Union, but it is Europe. And today Europe is under threat... there is a convergence of national interests of the UK and continental Europe…”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 04:10)

4. European Defence: Progress & Obstacles

• The new €150bn European defence fund marks a historic step.
• Gonzalez outlines three priorities:
  • Bridging capability gaps (air, space, intelligence).
  • Exploring new financing mechanisms (national, collective, possibly mutual debt).
  • Involving private finance by revisiting ESG rules.
• The structure of European defence is being reconsidered, including possible moves beyond NATO.
  • Quote:
    • “You can’t wobble, you can’t doubt… you have to be very clear that you’ve got a capacity to project power that your enemies will see and will respect, and therefore will not dare attacking you.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 06:14)

Challenges:

• Deep US dependency through NATO and defence procurement.
• National fragmentation in defence industries impeding efficiency.
  • Quote:
    • “We don’t have interoperability, we don’t have the same standards, we have a proliferation of technologies for the same product. We’ve got more than 20 tanks in the European continent. We don’t need that.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 09:07)

Pragmatic Approach:

• Continued US cooperation is a priority, but Europe must derisk its dependencies and act proactively even if US reliability isn’t assured.
• Recent experience justifies breaking previous taboos around common European debt and joint investment.

5. European Debt and Financial Autonomy

• Issuance of common European debt during the COVID crisis has set a precedent.

• Gonzalez expects further euro-denominated debt issues to bolster defence and create a safe asset alternative to the dollar.

  • Quote:
    • “We are at the time to think and do what until recently was unthinkable… my bet is that there will be another issuance of common debt to finance our defence…”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 12:33)

• Resistance remains, especially from fiscally conservative countries, over who stands behind European debt and whether EU-level taxation is needed.

• Gonzalez: “What’s behind European debt is European GDP, European growth…” (14:04)

6. Democracy as a Strength, Not a Weakness

• European decision-making is slow but solid due to consensus and democratic processes.
  • Quote:
    • “Democracy is not a weakness. … Democracy is what gives us the solidity of the decision…”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 15:16)

7. Responding to Trump's Tariffs and Economic Aggression

• Europe should remain “calm, united, and determined.”
• Will retaliate as necessary—but mutual tariffs are “a loser’s game.”
• On tariffs: “It’s a mess… Tariffs are hurting the American businesses.” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 17:03)

8. Tech Regulation and US Pressure

• Europe’s tech regulation is driven by protection of democracy and fair competition, not anti-American sentiment.
• Gonzalez rejects US attempts to dictate European regulatory approaches, emphasizing European sovereignty.
  • Quote:
    • “We would do a big disservice to the European citizen by weakening our tech regulations just to please other companies, whether they are in the US … China, Japan or India.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 18:39)

9. Europe, China, and Strategic Autonomy

• De-risking from China started with Beijing, but Europe wants a “functional relationship” that keeps markets open and insists on fairness.
• Chinese investment in sectors like EVs is welcome if mutual benefits and fair rules are secured.

  • Quote:

    • “The European Union has not shut the Chinese EV out of the European market. Americans have, Europeans have not.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 21:53)

  • Possible consideration of Chinese-style joint venture requirements for manufacturing.

10. Fate of the World Trade Organization

• Gonzalez gives a historical perspective, tracing the WTO’s US-led origins for global stability.
• Despite current US disengagement, multilateralism can adapt—options include more flexibilities, “variable geometry” trade groupings, and, least preferably, a radical global reset after a major crisis.
  • Quote:
    • “It is in a way very sad to see that it’s an American president with the stroke of a pen, with an executive order renouncing this incredible building, this edifice that the former US President built.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 24:10)

11. Europe’s Next Generation

• Gonzalez is candid that students are worried, but stresses empowerment and agency.
  • Quote:
    • “They have options, that they are empowered… the future will not be confiscated by others… if we take away this power from these young people, the only avenue left is violence.”
      (Arantxa Gonzalez, 27:30)

Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “Do we still want to live in the shadows of the Second World War, or do we start a new phase of European integration...” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 01:50)
• “Democracy is not a weakness. ... When there is an answer, we just walk the talk.” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 15:16)
• “Tariffs and counter tariffs are a loser's game. But we didn't start this game... we help do that by responding as forcefully as we can.” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 17:03)
• “Europe regulates the tech sector because it thinks it is important to make sure that our democracy is not subject to foreign interference…” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 18:39)
• “It would make sense to think a little bit how that [EU-China] relationship could work a bit better.” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 23:03)
• “It is in a way very sad to see that it's an American president with the stroke of a pen... renouncing this incredible building...” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 24:10)
• “They have the possibility to influence the future, the future is not written, the future is not given.” (Arantxa Gonzalez, 27:30)

Important Segments & Timestamps

• Key challenge defined: 01:50
• Germany's new leadership: 02:57
• UK-EU rapprochement: 04:10
• Defence funding and autonomy debate: 05:20 – 09:07
• Common debt and fiscal issues: 12:04 – 14:55
• Democracy in Europe’s response: 15:16
• Tariffs & response to US: 17:03 – 18:09
• Technology & US/EU regulation: 18:39
• China relations and market access: 20:19 – 23:52
• WTO and the global order: 24:10 – 26:09
• Young Europeans and the future: 27:30

Tone & Style

The conversation is thoughtful, measured, and strategically focused. Gonzalez is pragmatic, optimistic about Europe's ability to rise to challenges, but clear on the structural and political hurdles. Rachman's tone is probing, reflective, and grounded in the political realities of the moment.

Summary

Gonzalez articulates a vision of Europe at a crossroads: forced by global instability and a volatile US into new levels of unity, strategic autonomy, and collective investment—especially in defence. The conversation repeatedly comes back to the tension between national interests and collective European action, and the need to balance values (like democracy and solidarity) with hard-edged interests in trade, security, and technology. The mood is sober yet hopeful, with an emphasis on empowerment, choice, and the possibility of turning crisis into transformation.