The Rachman Review: Europe’s Rocky Relations with Donald Trump

Host: Gideon Rachman (Financial Times Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator)
Guest: Jens Stoltenberg (NATO Secretary General, 2014–2024; author of On My Watch)
Date: December 11, 2025
Theme: The future of NATO amidst renewed US skepticism, Europe’s security, and reflections on Ukraine, Russia, and Afghanistan

Episode Overview

In this episode, Gideon Rachman interviews Jens Stoltenberg on the uncertain future of NATO as Donald Trump returns to the White House. The conversation examines transatlantic tensions, responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine, American criticisms of European defense, and Stoltenberg’s candid reflections on his years leading the Alliance—including the collapse in Afghanistan. Central questions are raised about whether Europe can rely on the US, the effectiveness of NATO’s support for Ukraine, and the shifting security order in Europe.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. America’s Renewed Skepticism Toward NATO

• Rachman opens with concerns about Trump’s negative rhetoric regarding NATO, including quotes from a recent Trump interview.
• Trump’s critique:
  • "They talk, but they don't produce. And the war just keeps going on and on. But most European nations... they're decaying. They're decaying." (Donald Trump, 01:49)
  • Trump accused Europeans: “They're destroying their countries.” (Donald Trump, 01:59)
• Stoltenberg addresses European anxiety over the US commitment to NATO:
  • “We can never take the security relationship between North America and Europe for something which is guaranteed or written in stone.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 02:19)
  • He emphasizes mutual benefit: “A strong NATO, a strong transatlantic bond is good for Europe, but it's also good for the United States.” (02:28)

2. Ukraine: War, Negotiations, and Security Architecture

• Rachman raises American concerns that Europeans are soft in peace negotiations with Russia.
• Stoltenberg underscores:
  • Negotiations can go wrong but “we need to realize… the quickest way of ending a war is to lose a war. But that will not bring peace. That will bring occupation.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 03:18)
  • The only way to a just peace: “Weapons to Ukraine is actually a path to peace in Ukraine.” (03:54)
• On Russia’s demands for Ukraine to cede territory, Stoltenberg acknowledges a painful dilemma:
  • “Any change of border caused by the use of military force is unacceptable... maybe Ukraine has to give up some territory to obtain security.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 04:10)
  • He insists that, if so, Ukraine needs robust security guarantees to avoid future occupation.

3. Managing Trump as NATO Secretary General

• Rachman presses Stoltenberg on the challenge of keeping Trump “on board” without losing dignity or principles.
• Stoltenberg credits his approach:
  • He took Trump’s complaints seriously, especially demands for higher defense spending by European allies.
  • “The main message then, but also to a large extent today, has not been against NATO. It has been against NATO Allies not investing enough in NATO, and that's a very different thing.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 05:52)
  • He notes European defense spending has now increased, which made Trump more positive.
  • Recalls Trump’s reversal: "I used to say that NATO is obsolete, but NATO is no longer obsolete." (Stoltenberg recalling Trump, ~06:38)

4. Decaying Relationship with Russia & the Putin Shift

• Stoltenberg’s experience working with Putin and Russian officials is discussed.
  • “For many years, I actually had a good working relationship with him [Putin] and with Russia... But over all these years, as Prime Minister of Norway, I actually had a good relationship with Russia, and Russia respected the agreements.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 07:13-08:32)
  • Deterioration was gradual rather than sudden: “For me, moving from a country that for decades had some kind of working relationship... to a different position, being Secretary of NATO, that happened the same year as Russia really violated international law and annexed the Crimea.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 09:09)
• Perceptions of Western threat:
  • Stoltenberg recounts Medvedev's historical fears:
    • “You have to remember that every century there is a crazy guy from the west coming and invading us... now we are only in 2012, beginning of this century. So we are afraid of what will happen later.” (Jens Stoltenberg recalling Medvedev, 09:42-10:46)
  • Stoltenberg reflects: “We need at least to take that into calculation. That doesn't mean that we should be weak on Russia, but we need to talk to Russia...” (11:06)

5. Confrontations with Lavrov

• Stoltenberg describes aggressive confrontations with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov:
  • “He is staggeringly aggressive towards you, very disrespectful. What do you think he was trying to achieve?...” (Rachman, 11:36)
  • Stoltenberg’s seasoned response: “I know that it doesn't gain my case if I get too angry or react in the same way.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 12:31)

6. Afghanistan: The Withdrawal and Its Lessons

• Reflections on NATO's role and the chaotic exit from Afghanistan:
  • “I try in the book to be very honest about the successes... But we also failed on many accounts, including in Afghanistan. And that was very painful.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 13:38)
  • Mission overreach: “It started as a very targeted and focused counterterrorism operation. And in that we succeeded, but it gradually evolved into something much more ambitious, and that was a nation building operation. And that was just too ambitious.” (Stoltenberg, 14:08)
• On whether the withdrawal had to be so chaotic:
  • “The answer is, of course, no. It didn't have to be that chaotic then. Having said that... to leave a country, to end a military presence is extremely difficult, because as soon as it becomes known that actually we are leaving, panic spreads.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 15:07)
• Did Afghanistan’s collapse embolden Russia in Ukraine?
  • “I don't think so. I think that Putin had a long term plan... The big failure we did in Ukraine is not about Afghanistan... from 2014 when we actually saw that Russia's intention was to be aggressive, we did far too little to support Ukraine...” (Jens Stoltenberg, 16:24-16:48)

7. NATO’s Failures and Delayed Aid to Ukraine

• Stoltenberg admits NATO did not do enough between 2014-2022:
  • “Most NATO allies said, no, no, no, that's dangerous, it may provoke an invasion by Russia. So we didn't arm them and Russia invaded.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 16:54)
  • “If we had armed Ukraine over those years... we could even have prevented invasion by arming Ukraine.” (17:07)
• Discusses initial hesitancy to escalate aid due to fears of nuclear threats by Russia:
  • “Maybe we were too concerned. But at the same time... we were too slow in providing advanced weapons, although NATO allies have provided unprecedented military support to Ukraine, and that has made a huge difference.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 19:33)

8. Analysis of Ukraine’s Failed Counteroffensive & Protracted War

• Rachman and Stoltenberg discuss the failed 2023 counteroffensive:
  • Stoltenberg on Western/NATO and Ukrainian perspectives:
    • “Some say Ukrainians were not willing to take casualties... Others say, you gave us too little, too late.” (21:09)
    • Admits the result was the realization of a long attritional war.

9. What Happens if Ukraine Loses?

• Stark warnings about consequences:
  • “It will be a tragedy for the Ukrainians... but it will be also dangerous for all of us, because we'll have seen that the use of military force... actually pays off. They get what they want and that will make the world more dangerous.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 22:08)

10. Can/Should Europe Prepare to Defend Itself Alone?

• Stoltenberg is pragmatic:
  • “Of course, it is important to analyze... But more important is to actually look into what kind of actions can we take to minimize the risk for bad outcomes... no regret strategies.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 23:19)
  • Three key recommendations:
    1. Raise European defense spending: Both to keep the US engaged and to secure Europe if the US leaves.
    2. Prioritize engagement with the US, even with a challenging administration.
    3. Demonstrate to the US that NATO allies enhance US security – especially given threats from China and Russia (with anecdote about a map Trump presented in the Oval Office showing strategic proximity).
    • “We help you to track the submarines. We help you to monitor what happens on the Russian side of the border. We give you early warning. So that makes the United States stronger.” (Jens Stoltenberg, 25:37)
  • Final stance: “Follow a no regret strategy, invest in defense, spend time in the United States, and demonstrate that it's in the US interest to have friends and allies.” (26:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s relationship with NATO:
  “The main message... has not been against NATO. It has been against NATO Allies not investing enough.” (Stoltenberg, 05:52)
• On the danger of Russia’s victory in Ukraine:
  “If [Russia] wins, that will make the world more dangerous. And therefore, it is in our security interest to continue to support Ukraine.” (Stoltenberg, 22:41)
• Medvedev’s historical explanation for Russian fears:
  “Every century there is a crazy guy from the west coming and invading us…” (Stoltenberg, citing Medvedev, 09:42)
• On NATO’s failure to arm Ukraine:
  “We did far too little to support Ukraine, to arm Ukraine, to train Ukrainians, to provide them with the weapons they needed.” (Stoltenberg, 16:39)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump’s Criticism of Europe and NATO: 01:37–02:04
• Stoltenberg on NATO’s Future: 02:19–02:40
• Support for Ukraine as Path to Peace: 03:18–03:54
• On European Defense Spending: 05:52–06:27
• Working with Putin and Medvedev: 07:12–10:46
• Afghanistan Withdrawal Reflections: 13:32–16:24
• Critique of NATO’s Ukraine Aid (2014–2022): 16:24–17:43
• On Delayed Weapons to Ukraine: 19:31–20:15
• 2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive Analysis: 20:15–21:50
• Consequences of Ukrainian Defeat: 22:06–22:58
• Should Europe Defend Itself: 23:18–26:20

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is candid, serious, and nuanced, matching the high stakes: Stoltenberg is clear-eyed about past failures and the challenge of managing both Trump and Putin but stresses unity, robust defense spending, and proactive engagement over fatalism. The “no regret” strategy—making choices that are wise regardless of which scenario unfolds—becomes a central message.

This episode offers a rare, insider perspective into the geopolitics shaping Europe’s future and the limits and prospects of the transatlantic alliance under renewed strain.