The Rachman Review – Europe’s Triple Shock: Putin, Trump, and Xi

Date: November 20, 2025
Host: Gideon Rachman (Financial Times chief foreign affairs columnist)
Guest: Timothy Garton Ash (Historian, author of Homelands: A Personal History of Europe)

Overview

In this episode, Gideon Rachman talks with historian Timothy Garton Ash about Europe’s present era, which he defines as emerging from three shocks: Russia’s war on Ukraine (Putin), uncertainty caused by US politics (Trump), and rising challenges from China (Xi). Their conversation explores the implications of these shifts, Europe's internal struggles with unity and diversity, and whether the continent can seize this moment to secure its future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A New Era for Europe – Defining the "Post-Wall" Period

• TGA (Timothy Garton Ash) traces modern European history in three phases:

  • Postwar period (1945 onward)
  • "Post-Wall" period (1989–2022; from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine)
  • The present “new era,” marked by “the return of full scale interstate war” in Europe ([01:45]).

  “I’m absolutely sure that we are at the beginning of a new era. It begins on the 24th of February 2022 with Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [01:47]

• The optimism that followed 1989 has turned, post-2008, into a period defined by repeated crises: the financial crash, Eurozone stress, and increasing Russian aggression ([02:54]).

2. Europe’s Mixed Legacy Since 1989

• The early post-Cold War years saw “extraordinary” success as former Soviet states pursued democracy, market economies, and integration into the EU and NATO.

• Since 2008, however, “a cascade of crises” undermined progress: financial meltdown, Russian moves in Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014), and a lack of Western resolve in response ([04:31]).

  “If we'd had a more decisive response, particularly after 2014, we might not be in this mess.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [05:28]

3. Leadership and Missed Opportunities

• Angela Merkel’s tenure is appraised as paradoxical: admirable personal qualities, but ultimately a failure on critical issues — overreliance on Russian energy, inadequate response to aggression, and weak defense of European democracy (esp. Hungary under Orban) ([05:49]).

  “…on all the big issues, she actually got it wrong.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [06:49]

4. The Triple Shock: Putin, Trump, Xi

• Garton Ash identifies a “triple crisis” for Europe:

  1. Putin: Armed aggression from Russia in Ukraine.
  2. Xi (and the Global South): “Rather shocking discovery” that many powers (China, India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa) don’t align with the West on Ukraine or global order, allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions.
  3. Trump: The realization that the US can no longer be fully relied upon for European security.

  “So that's a huge triple challenge.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [08:36]

5. Europe’s Crisis Response – Varied Success

• EU has responded impressively to the Ukraine crisis, both materially and morally.

• However, Europe has failed to respond effectively to other challenges, most notably the migration crisis and recent Middle East issues ([07:31], [09:44]).

  “Europe was disunited. There was no shared position... Europe cannot be effective.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [11:34]

6. The Limits of European Geopower

• Europe remains an “economic giant,” a “regulatory superpower,” but is a “geopolitical dwarf” due to internal divisions and lack of unified military capacity ([12:05]).

• When negotiating with countries like the US under Trump, Europe has little leverage due to dependence on American military/security guarantees.

  “Europe’s relations with Donald Trump could produce a book called the Anthology of Sycophancy.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [13:23] “The lesson from that is very simple. The measure of whether Europe responds to this crisis... will be can we become a two or three dimensional power, that is to say, a military and security power as well.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [14:13]

7. Institutional Limits: European Policy, National Politics

• The fundamental issue: “The policies we need are European, but the politics are still national.”

• Electoral cycles and domestic politics inhibit long-term, cross-European strategic action ([14:33]).

  “Can we... get to a European scale policy while recognizing politics will continue to be national?”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [15:51]

• He references Jean-Claude Juncker:

  “We all know what needs to be done, we just don't know how to get elected after we do it.”
  — Gideon Rachman quoting Juncker [16:07]

8. The Enduring Tension: Unity vs. Diversity

• Europe’s historic diversity fuels innovation and strength but also sows division.
• The challenge is “finding the golden balance between unity and diversity”—push too hard either way and the continent becomes unstable ([16:58]).

9. External and Internal Threats: From "Scramble for Europe" to Populist Pressures

• The risk that, as Europe’s global clout fades, it shifts from being an actor to “being on the menu” for outside powers (“The Scramble for Europe”) ([19:16]).

• European leaders like Orban demonstrate a multi-aligning, opportunistic approach, undermining unity from within.

  “The way I would put it is not doomed or saved. But I cannot think of a period when the forces of disintegration and integration have been more finely balanced.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [20:28]

10. The Coming Tests: Elections and Populism

• Major upcoming elections could see populist, anti-EU right parties win power in key countries (France, Italy, Spain, Germany, UK, Poland) ([21:24]).

• The outcome depends not on one country but the internal balance within the EU.

• Distinguishes between types of right-wing leaders: Meloni (Italy) has worked within the EU framework; Orban undermines it. France in 2027 could tip the balance.

  “It’s going to be a series of swings and roundabouts, but the question is, how do we come out of that in a kind of five to ten year time frame?”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [24:21]

11. The Missed Opportunity of Brexit

• Brexit damaged both the UK and the EU, but current UK leadership is too cautious about re-engagement with Europe ([25:58]).

• A historic opportunity for a deeper reset is being missed—the UK and EU need much closer cooperation in the new security environment.

  “There is a historic opportunity which is being missed there. And I hope that either Keir Starmer himself, or... a new Labour Prime Minister... will try to seize that chance.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [27:33]

• On the EU side, bureaucratic inertia and short-sighted bargaining block deeper UK-EU cooperation, especially on defense ([28:07]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Europe has responded well to the Ukraine part of that challenge… what the EU has done in actually becoming an actor in defense, in supporting Ukraine is pretty impressive.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [08:59]
• “The policies we need are European, but the politics are still national.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [14:41]
• On Angela Merkel:
  “On all the big issues, she actually got it wrong.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [06:49]
• “Europe’s relations with Donald Trump could produce a book called the Anthology of Sycophancy... all European leaders have competed for that [Order of the Brown Nose].”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [13:23]
• “I cannot think of a period when the forces of disintegration and integration have been more finely balanced.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [20:30]
• On Brexit:
  “One of the largest acts of national self-harm in our modern history.”
  — Timothy Garton Ash [25:59]

Key Timestamps & Segments

• 00:01 – 02:31: Opening; setting the context of Europe’s transition from post-Wall optimism to current crisis.
• 02:54 – 05:34: Assessment of post-1989 progress, the rise of crises post-2008, and Europe's insufficient response to Russian aggression.
• 05:49 – 07:05: Merkel’s legacy and critical leadership misjudgments.
• 07:31 – 09:44: Europe’s record in handling different crises; introduction of the “triple shock.”
• 10:26 – 13:13: Europe’s geopolitical marginalization, internal divisions, and the limits of EU’s power versus superpowers.
• 14:25 – 17:59: The structural problem of policy vs. politics; attempts to reconcile unity and diversity in Europe.
• 19:16 – 20:28: Threats from outside powers (“Scramble for Europe”), “multi-aligning” within EU, and risks of disintegration.
• 21:24 – 25:03: The populist challenge, upcoming elections, and future projections for right-wing influence in Europe.
• 25:58 – 29:43: Brexit’s legacy, UK-EU relations, and missed opportunities for deeper strategic alliance.

Tone and Style

The conversation is both sober and analytical, with flashes of dry wit, historical perspective, and concern for the future of European democracy. Garton Ash remains cautiously realistic, neither apocalyptic nor unduly optimistic, describing finely balanced forces that will determine Europe’s path in the coming decade.

Summary Table: The Triple Shocks

| Shock | Description | Impact | |--------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | Putin | Russian aggression (war in Ukraine) | Security crisis, military threat | | Xi + “Global South” | Most non-Western powers remaining neutral/pragmatic, undermining Western sanctions | Weakens Western leverage | | Trump | U.S. unreliability, especially regarding NATO and Ukraine | Erodes security guarantees |

Closing Thought

Europe stands at a pivotal crossroads: unity versus division, integration versus fragmentation. Its ability to adapt, reform, and cooperate — internally and with strategic partners like the UK — will determine whether it meets the triple shock of Putin, Trump, and Xi with resilience or forfeits its achievements of the last 35 years.

For full analysis and further context, listen to the episode at [The Rachman Review].