Podcast Summary: The Rachman Review

Episode: Greenland: the good, the bad or the ugly?
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Gideon Rachman (Financial Times)
Guest: President Alexander Stubb of Finland

Overview

In a tension-filled episode recorded during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Gideon Rachman interviews Finnish President Alexander Stubb about the transatlantic crisis over US demands to take possession of Greenland, and its implications for NATO, European security, and the war in Ukraine. President Stubb, who maintains relationships with both US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, provides nuanced analysis of diplomatic options, European agency, military preparedness, and shifting world order dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Greenland Crisis: Possible Scenarios

• Three Scenarios: President Stubb frames the Greenland situation as "the good, the bad, and the ugly."

  • Good: A diplomatic off-ramp leading to strengthened NATO Arctic security.

  • Bad: Escalation into tariffs and trade war with the US.

  • Ugly: Potential military conflict, which Stubb considers very unlikely.

    “Needless to say, as a Nordic, as a Finn, I think what the United States has proposed flies against basic international law, territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
    — President Stubb (02:55)

• European Divides:

  • One camp, including Stubb, wishes to de-escalate through diplomacy.
  • Others argue for a tougher, retaliatory line against the US, including tariffs.

• Misunderstandings: Stubb clarifies that the presence of Finnish and allied troops in Greenland was part of a joint reconnaissance mission with the US (“broken telephone” led to Trump’s misinterpretation).

  “Basically, what the soldiers from the eight countries were doing there was a mission, a reconnaissance mission that had been agreed with our allies by the United States as well… So unfortunately, this was a little bit of a broken telephone.”
  — Stubb (03:54)

• Role of Dialogue: Intensive “phone diplomacy on steroids” among allies attempts to find an off-ramp, with hopes pegged on the NATO summit in Ankara.

  “…it's always better to talk than not to talk.”
  — Stubb (05:37)

2. Transatlantic Power and European Agency

• Tariffs & Leverage:

  • Stubb rejects the notion that the US holds all the escalation power, noting the EU’s control over modern economic “warfare” tools like tariffs, trade policy, and monetary policy.

    “I would quite fundamentally dispute, disagree with that. Remember that the modern instruments of what could be called warfare or escalation, many of them are actually the exclusive competence of the European Commission..."
    — Stubb (06:49)

• Diplomacy behind Closed Doors:

  • Prefers private, “back office” diplomacy over media statements; laments that the Greenland dispute is distracting from Ukraine.

3. Ongoing War in Ukraine

• Diplomatic Progress:

  • Stubb insists Western alignment on Ukraine is stronger than a year prior; security guarantees and a “prosperity package” are more defined.

    “I would say that it's more three against one rather than two against two…”
    — Stubb (11:08)

• US Ambiguity:

  • At times, the US has sounded aligned with Russian talking points (e.g., territorial handovers) but now seeks a mediating role.

• Security Guarantees:

  • Stubb acknowledges the paradox of the US offering security guarantees to Ukraine while threatening NATO territory elsewhere, but stresses pragmatism.

    “Well, there is obviously a tension and a paradox in that, but we have to work with what we have.”
    — Stubb (13:19)

Ukraine's Resilience

• Commitment:

  • Stubb admires Ukrainians’ resolve; notes Russia's strategic failures and Ukraine's unbroken civil spirit.

    “Ukraine in my mind is unbreakable... The resolve... of the Ukrainian people is simply amazing.”
    — Stubb (13:37)

• Scenarios:

  • War of attrition continues, a peace compromise emerges, or the US withdraws (“Don’t believe in that one”).

    “Here we have three scenarios. Scenario number one is that we continue the war of attrition... The second scenario is one where we get a peace agreement... And then of course, the third and worst scenario is that the US withdraws, but I don't believe in that one.”
    — Stubb (15:14)

4. Profiles in Leadership: Zelenskyy and Trump

• Zelenskyy:

  • Praises Zelenskyy’s resilience under pressure, likening Finland’s historical experience to Ukraine’s struggle.

    “He's one of the most impressive human beings I have met throughout my life... I admire him a lot.”
    — Stubb (16:48)

• Trump:

  • Notes the importance—but limits—of personal diplomacy.
  • Says Trump’s public persona is distinct from his private side: “Sometimes he listens, sometimes no.” (18:08)

5. Europe’s Military Preparedness & Strategic Autonomy

• Finland’s Model:

  • Stubb describes Finland’s defense culture, extensive reserves, and readiness; positions compulsory service as a backbone of national defense.

    “We didn't drop our guard... we have obligatory military service, about a million that have done it... biggest artillery in Europe, together with Poland.”
    — Stubb (20:00, paraphrased)

• Welfare State and Defense:

  • Asserts that societal welfare and strong defense aren’t mutually exclusive.

    “We have a very good welfare system. Of course, as always, it can be improved. It has always coexisted with military expenditure...”
    — Stubb (22:28)

• European Defense Dependence:

  • Recognizes Europe’s reliance on the US but sees positive trends toward more self-reliance.

    “I still think that it is in the geopolitical and military interests of the United States to stay engaged in Europe. And I still think that they will do it. I don't see any signs of major withdrawals.”
    — Stubb (23:49)

6. Three Priorities for Europe

• Boost Defense:
  • Industrial and capability upgrades.
• Diversify Trade:
  • Expand global agreements, balance engagement with China.
• Sustain Liberal Order:

  • Europe as an agent of multilateralism amid global multipolarity.

    “Europe still believes in the liberal world order and in multilateralism...”
    — Stubb (25:53)

7. On Optimism & World Order

• Stubb expresses guarded optimism, likening the current era of flux to historic world order transitions, and stresses the need to give the Global South more agency for multilateralism to succeed.

  “The most difficult time to maintain optimism is when the world order is changing... As they did after World War I, the League of nations wasn't strong enough. But after World War II, multilateralism won the day...”
  — Stubb (26:57)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• The Core Greenland Choices

  “There’s three scenarios on Greenland. It’s the good and the bad and the ugly... among allies, you should be able to discuss things diplomatically rather than coming on with full force.”
  (President Stubb, 02:19–02:55)

• On Diplomacy:

  “Phone diplomacy on steroids.”
  (President Stubb, 04:52)

• Pragmatism:

  “We in Finland are very pragmatic, so we try to deal with a world that exists, not a world that we would like to exist.”
  (President Stubb, 18:08)

• Finnish Defense Ethos:

  “We have the biggest artillery in Europe, together with Poland. And as I always say, we don't have it because we were worried about Sweden.”
  (President Stubb, 20:44)

• On Optimism and Historical Change:

  “The most difficult time to maintain optimism is when the world order is changing... Don't get anxious about this shift... that world is over.”
  (President Stubb, 26:57–28:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Greenland crisis scenarios: 02:19–03:45
• Misunderstandings over troops: 03:54–04:31
• Diplomatic strategy for de-escalation: 04:52–06:32
• EU leverage and tariffs: 06:49–07:23
• Ukraine war diplomatic status: 10:18–12:36
• Ukraine’s resilience & Russian failures: 13:37–15:09
• Finnish defense approach and societal model: 19:43–23:21
• Europe-US security imbalance: 23:21–25:13
• Three priorities for Europe: 25:13–26:57
• Optimism and global order transitions: 26:57–28:44

Tone and Language

• Rachman: Analytical, probing, slightly dry humor.
• Stubb: Candid, diplomatic, occasionally self-deprecating, pragmatic, and optimistic.

Summary

This episode provides a frank, insightful look at the intersection of US-European relations, Arctic geopolitics, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. President Stubb advocates for diplomatic de-escalation in the Greenland crisis, argues for European agency, highlights lessons from Finland’s defense posture, and urges Europe to seize its moment amid global shifts. Throughout, he balances realism with a measure of optimism about international cooperation and multilateralism, even as the era transitions away from the certainties of the post–Cold War order.