The Rachman Review

Episode: ‘Regime roulette’ in Venezuela: Is Greenland next?
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Gideon Rachman (Financial Times)
Guest: Ian Bremmer (President, Eurasia Group)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the dramatic geopolitical aftershocks of the US-led ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the potential for further American interventions in Latin America, and the astonishing possibility of US interest in acquiring Greenland. Host Gideon Rachman and Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer dive into the risks, motivations, and strategic miscalculations at play in the Trump administration’s “Dunro Doctrine”—a bid for renewed hemispheric dominance.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Aftermath in Venezuela: “Regime Roulette”

• Military Operation & Uncertain Path Forward

  • The US successfully removed Maduro, bringing him to New York for trial—a show of military might and operational competence ([02:09]).
  • Ian Bremmer describes the result not as regime change but as “regime roulette”—the power structure persists, only the faces might change ([02:09]).

  “They spin the wheel and they see which new folks pop up, but all part of the same regime.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([02:09])

• Risks & Constraints for the US

  • Trump wants a “win” without US troop entanglement; mercenaries would be used if things get dangerous ([03:49]).
  • The situation remains volatile, and ongoing chaos is probable, especially regarding drug exports and human rights ([03:49]).
  • However, the Venezuelan diaspora could present an opportunity for eventual stabilization ([03:49]).

• Political Optics

  • Trump seeks headline victories with minimal American risk:

    “No American lives are at risk, no American taxpayer dollars are being spent. And so if it turned out that things got really hairy in Venezuela and troops were needed, I think that Trump would probably go the mercenary route.”
    — Ian Bremmer ([03:49])

2. The “Dunro Doctrine”: Spreading Intervention

• Expansionist Rhetoric

  • Public embrace of the so-called “Dunro Doctrine” (named for US hemispheric dominance), with discussions of further interventions in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and even Greenland ([06:14]).

• Colombia, Mexico, Cuba

  • Colombia: Military strikes on cartels seem likely but will have little strategic effect, deemed a symbolic show of US military reach ([06:32]).
  • Mexico: Direct intervention much less likely due to effective cooperation from the Mexican government and high diplomatic risk ([06:32]).
  • Cuba: Rubio’s ultimate goal is regime change, but no immediate plans exist; more likely, pressure will be applied to cut off Cuban oil supplies, especially as Mexican oil exports to Cuba are pivotal ([06:32]–[10:01]).

  “If they don't deliver spectacular wins on these topics…the United States is likely to intervene and that an intervention against Mexican sovereignty is a huge risk for them. It's a clear red line.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([06:32])

• Migration as Unintended Consequence

  • Economic collapse in Cuba or chaos in Venezuela would increase migration pressure—an internal debate among Trump’s advisors ([10:06]).

  “You could end up with a lot more migrants, and has already produced 8 million of them, though most of them not coming to the United States.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([10:06])

• Internal Dynamics

  • Key decisions driven not solely by Trump but by a core group: Ratcliffe (CIA), Miller, Rubio, etc. ([11:20]).

3. The Greenland Gambit

• Outlandish Headlines and Strategic Confusion

  • Trump’s desire for Greenland is dubbed “the stupidest set of headlines” by Bremmer; US could achieve its interests through Denmark, but Trump insists on sovereignty ([12:03]).

  “Trump has decided that he wants this territory to be sovereign part of US. He's decided it. And I cannot for the life of me understand what the national interest of the US is in demanding that.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([12:03])

• “Asymmetric” Tactics & European Weakness

  • No immediate threat of invasion; instead, economic, diplomatic, and covert strategies targeting Greenlanders directly ([12:03]–[14:31]).
  • European response is hampered by disarray and lack of credible deterrence ([15:29]).

• Psychological Warfare?

  • Threats of military action are more distraction than reality, with Rubio and others explicitly rejecting such options ([14:40]).

4. European Response and Geopolitical Realignment

• Europe Ill-Prepared

  • Europe’s historic reliance on US leadership has left it vulnerable and slow to adapt to changing US priorities ([15:50]).
  • European governments failed to anticipate or invest in autonomy from American strategy ([17:06]).

  “They were wrong about all of those things… they needed to have been right and started investing on being right decades ago.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([17:06])

5. The Top Political Risk: The United States Itself

• American Political Instability

  • The single greatest global risk for 2026 is domestic US political upheaval: efforts to remake or erode the US political system ([18:56]).
  • Trump and his administration are aggressively politicizing institutions, seeking loyalty in the executive branch, and undermining checks and balances ([18:56]).

  “We are firmly in political revolution territory. The question is, to what degree is Trump likely to succeed? And I am skeptical on that front. I think he will fail. I wish I were more confident of that.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([18:56])

• Potential Midterm Corrective

  • Midterm elections may offer some constraint, but only if they trigger significant GOP dissent; institutional resilience is uneven ([21:13]).
  • Trump’s own policy incompetence and lack of strategic focus may hinder any attempt at a “political revolution” ([23:03]).

  “He is incredibly impulsive. He is easily distracted. If he really wanted to pull off a political revolution, he shouldn't be talking about Greenland.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([23:03])

6. Markets’ Rosy View vs. Underlying Risks

• Market Optimism Disconnect

  • Stock markets remain upbeat, focused on AI and energy, but this ignores the accumulating strategic and systemic risks discussed ([23:59]).

  “There is a gap between how capitalism serves the interests of humanity and how well governed and well regulated systems benefit and serve humanity. And they typically operate on different timescales…and right now they're not.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([23:59])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• US ousts Maduro and the Venezuela aftermath: [02:09]–[06:07]
• Dunro Doctrine and prospective interventions: [06:07]–[11:20]
• Greenland ambitions and Europe's weakness: [11:53]–[17:06]
• The US as the top global risk: [18:56]–[23:03]
• Market optimism versus systemic risk: [23:59]

Memorable Quotes

• On Venezuela’s future:

  “It’s not regime change, it’s regime roulette.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([02:09])

• On Trump’s interventionist strategy:

  “He’s looking around saying, okay, where else can I have a big headline success?”
  — Ian Bremmer ([02:09])

• On US-Greenland brinkmanship:

  “I cannot for the life of me understand what the national interest of the US is in demanding that.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([12:03])

• On European leaders’ miscalculation:

  “They were wrong about all of those things. Kind of in a similar way to the Americans being wrong that integrating China was going to lead the Chinese to become American…”
  — Ian Bremmer ([17:06])

• On Trump’s policy flaws:

  “He is incredibly impulsive. He is easily distracted. If he really wanted to pull off a political revolution, he shouldn’t be talking about Greenland. He should be focusing on tearing apart the Democrats.”
  — Ian Bremmer ([23:03])

Conclusion

The episode delivers a hard-hitting analysis of America’s increasingly aggressive and erratic foreign policy posture under Trump—especially in the Western Hemisphere—and examines how these choices are turbocharged by internal political instability. In an era marked by “regime roulette,” global anxieties, and European disarray, Ian Bremmer and Gideon Rachman paint a picture of enormous geopolitical volatility, with subterranean risks ignored by both markets and many policy elites.

For listeners wanting a clear, unvarnished look at the risks facing the Americas, Europe, and the global order in 2026, this episode is essential listening.