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The Rachman Review
Trump takes aim at South Africa
00:27:03
Is there any truth to the allegations of a ‘white genocide’?
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- [00:00]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
The latest episode of the Next Five podcast is all about the energy transition. I speak to Elizabeth Cremona at Ember.
- [00:06]
Elizabeth Cremona
It costs far more to not invest in your grid than to actually invest.
- [00:10]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Massimo Bataini at Prismian Data center in.
- [00:13]
Lawson Naidu
US Requires significant investment for utilities.
- [00:16]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
And Maria Mendeluce at We mean Business Coalition.
- [00:19]
Elizabeth Cremona
US$1 trillion are spent in subsidizing fossil fuels benefiting the richest people and not the poorest.
- [00:27]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Listen to the next five wherever you get your podcasts.
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David Pilling
Enjoy. Hello and welcome to the Rachman Review. I'm David Pilling, Africa editor of the Financial Times, standing in for Gideon while he's away. This week's podcast is about the state of South Africa, its relations with the US and its economic and political prospects at home. My guests are two South Africans, Lawson Naidu, a civil society activist, and Elizabeth Sideropoulos, a foreign policy expert. Donald Trump has falsely accused South Africa of carrying out a white genocide. He has offered asylum to white Afrikaners who want to live in America, though very few have taken him up on his offer. So what is the state of race relations in South Africa? And to what extent, if any, have Donald Trump's allegations hit a nerve? Earlier this year, Donald Trump meted out a ritual humiliation to visiting South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, alleging that the country was guilty of a white genocide.
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Lawson Naidu
These are articles over the last few days. Death of people.
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David Pilling
Death, death, death.
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Lawson Naidu
Horrible death, death. I don't know to pick anyone.
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David Pilling
White South Africans are fleeing because of the violence and racist laws. He followed this up last month by boycotting South Africa's G20 meeting in Johannesburg, the first ever to be held on the African continent, and by threatening to bar South Africa from the G20 summit in Miami next year. In fact, South African politics reveals a rather different picture from the one Trump has painted. For the first time since the end of apartheid more than 30 years ago, the ANC is sharing power, including with a party, the Democratic alliance, that has long been perceived as representing the interests of the white minority. So I began by asking Lawson to outline the true state of race relations in South Africa.
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Lawson Naidu
Well, you know, it's certainly not what is being portrayed out of Washington at the moment. There's no racial genocide taking place. The reality in South Africa is that we have high levels of racialized inequality in our society. Levels of inequality have certainly increased in recent years because of the economic situation in the country. But I don't think that we can say that there's a race relations crisis. There are, in fact, many positive aspects that one can point to in terms of race relations in the country, particularly when it comes to moments of great national import, be their sporting moments or as we saw recently with the hosting of the G20, where the country rallied behind the government and the President in his efforts to produce a successful outcome for the G20. So I think those moments show that the country comes together when we are under pressure. And I think that really negates any real sense that there's a racialized crisis.
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David Pilling
I mean, it is true, as you've said, that there are high levels of violence in South Africa. Much of it happens in the townships and is directed against the non white community. But whites are caught up in violence as well. What, if anything, is the government doing to crack down on levels of violence or to get to the root causes?
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Lawson Naidu
No, indeed. I mean, I think it would be fair to say that we have extremely high levels of violent crime in South Africa and it doesn't discriminate on a racial basis. You know, the reality is that poorer communities are more greatly affected by violent crime, and that tends to be in township and informal settlement areas within the country, primarily targeted at black communities. But whites and other racial groups in South Africa are not exempt from that violence. But it is something that needs to be dealt with. And there are initiatives underway at the moment with the government recognizing the importance of dealing with high levels of crime in the country because it is a deterrent to investment in the economy. But the progress there has been slow. The law enforcement agencies certainly need to be revamped in order to be able to effectively root out criminal gangs and organized crime syndicates.
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David Pilling
And Elizabeth, you've written extensively about race relations. Do you agree with Lawson's assessment? Is the dream of the rainbow nation still alive, or do you think the country has sort of splintered into identity politics?
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Elizabeth Cremona
I would agree largely with what Lawson has said. I mean, and I think the G20 moment was just an example of that, where the country has come together. Do we still have racists in our midst? Absolutely, we do. Have we realized the Rainbow Nation dream of Archbishop Tutu? No, we haven't. But I think what has emerged out of the us, South Africa, spat, if I can call it that, is that I think the country, in many senses has actually come together. We have a number of challenges. Crime is a significant one, and it cuts across all race groups. And the most affected are in fact, the most vulnerable, as Lawson said. The big challenge, I think, when it comes to dealing with crime is that we have a police force and crime intelligence units and so on, that have become corrupted, that have been captured, in a sense, by criminal syndicates. We have two inquiries currently on the go where a lot of the problems that the police force is facing are really coming to the fore. And it explains why we've also battled to really come to grips effectively with the high levels of crime.
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David Pilling
Yes. Just before we go onto the kind of broader diplomatic and economic implications of this quite serious standoff with America. You know, one of the sore points that Trump and those around him have mentioned is this song, Kill the Boar, which is legal to sing in South Africa. It's sort of a holdover, let's say, from the struggle years. Has the ANC or the new coalition, the Government of National Unity, have they addressed issues like this anymore to try and take the heat out of racialized politics in South Africa? You know, whether it's manufactured from abroad or whether it's real.
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Elizabeth Cremona
But I think what we've seen emerge over the last couple of years, a little longer than that, two parties on the more radical side of the spectrum that have contributed to actually increasing the tensions in that regard, and that's the Mkonto Wasizwa Party that was established by Jacob Zuma a couple of years ago, and of course the economic freedom fighters, that of a longer provenance. And they are the primary proponents of, of both using particularly inflammatory rhetoric across the board, not just with the song Kill the Book, Kill the Farmer. I think in earlier years there was a position that the ANC took which was much more willing to tolerate that kind of articulation of issues. I think with the creation of these two parties that are now pushing a particular agenda which is inimical, I think, to the ANC's own electoral successes or not. I think you're seeing a much more nuanced position on many of these things that seek to inflame racial tens.
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David Pilling
Right. How serious do you think this standoff is with the United States? What does it mean for South Africa, economically and diplomatically?
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Elizabeth Cremona
Well, the US is a very important economic trading partner and investment partner. You know, There are over 600 companies that have had a long history of investment in South Africa. They're our third largest trading partner until the Liberation Day. Tariffs. Some of its sectors received tariff free entry into the US market. So the Africa growth of an opportunity, specifically some of our agricultural products as well as auto manufacturers, et cetera. So from an economic perspective, the fact that we now have, say, 30% tariffs on our goods is a challenge. Of course, it's important to note that the relationship has been rocky even before the Trump administration. I think some of the positions that South Africa has taken diplomatically over the last few years, its alignment with the BRICS countries, particularly Iran, and of course under the Biden administration, the position that South Africa had taken initially with regard to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the fact that there was a boat that docked in one of our naval bases. The relationship, though, I think got out of control in the last year. And I think certainly it's been really difficult, I think, for South Africa to navigate that relationship because it's not only about trying to sort of sit down and rationalise. You know, we can talk about trade, we can talk about what goods we want to sort of reduce to make it easier for American products to be exported or invested to come to South Africa without black economic empowerment requirements. But it's very difficult if the issue here is, well, Afrikaner genocide and, you know, don't confuse me with the facts, so it becomes really difficult to engage. And added to that, of course, we really haven't had an ambassador in Washington D.C. and that has made it also much more difficult diplomatically to navigate. What I have to say, though, is not about a transactional discussion that one can have with them. We've tried that, particularly through our Department of Trade and Industry. So how do you take this forward is a real conundrum.
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David Pilling
Yes, Lawson? I mean, given all of this, do you think there is a credible path back for South Africa in terms of its relations with the US? And given that the US, important as it is, only accounts for about 8%, I think, of South African exports. Is there a role for South Africa that you were hinting at earlier as a kind of champion of multilateralism, non alignment, some of these old values of solidarity, et cetera, that appear to be really under pressure in the world at the moment?
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Lawson Naidu
Well, you know, I certainly think that President Ramaphosa has grasped that nettle recently and asserted South Africa's authority on the global stage in terms of promoting issues around the importance of multilateralism, that we live in a multipolar world now, something that I think needs to be recognized and that the US attitude towards South Africa is a critical one. But South Africa is being singled out more than most other countries politically. Whereas, you know, on the trade side, one could say that there are many countries that have been targeted by the us but, you know, this is a moment for those who believe in multilateralism to stand up alongside South Africa. And I think the success of the G20 and the leaders declaration was a step towards that. But, you know, purely on the trade front, I think there will have to be a compromise farm because the US Economy is going to rely on, on the critical minerals that come from this part of the world. So despite what is happening now, there will have to be some sort of agreement, perhaps not in the short term, but probably in the medium term.
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David Pilling
And Lawson, are people standing up, are countries standing up for South Africa's position? I mean, I heard some grumblings in Johannesburg recently that the Europeans were described to me very much kind of off the record as cowardly in their attitudes, that they sort of supported South Africa's position in private, but in public they were pandering to Trump's views.
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Lawson Naidu
Well, I think this is part of the process we're going through now. You know, there is a recognition that the stance that South Africa has taken is the sensible, reasonable one in the interests of the world at large. And some countries may perhaps find it difficult to stand up to Trump in the way that perhaps South Africa has been forced to do and are still trying to play under the radar, as it were. But I think the pushback that we get from Washington all the time means that sooner or later those other countries are going to have to also take a principal stand if they wish to retain the kind of multilateralism that is going to take us all forward. So, yeah, there may be murmurings at the moment, but I think the reality will set in.
- [12:27]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
The latest episode of the Next Five podcast is all about the energy transition. I speak to Elizabeth Cremona at Ember.
- [12:33]
Elizabeth Cremona
The cost of far more to not invest in your grid than to actually invest.
- [12:37]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Massimo Bataini at Prismian Data center in.
- [12:40]
Lawson Naidu
US Requires significant investment for utilities.
- [12:43]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
And Maria Mendeluce at We mean Business Coalition.
- [12:46]
Elizabeth Cremona
US$1 trillion are spent in subsidizing fossil fuels benefiting the richest people and not the poorest.
- [12:53]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Listen to the next five wherever you get your podcasts.
- [12:56]
David Pilling
Enjoy. I'd like to turn to domestic politics, if I may, because there's a lot been happening since last May in the election when the ANC's vote fell to 40% and the formation really and kind of lightning quick time of the Government of National Unity. As you know, there are 10 parties in this coalition which is known as the GNU, and that crucially includes the Democratic alliance, or DA, a party whose ideology and supporter base is in a sense polar opposite to that of the ancient. How important, Lawson, do you think the GNU has been and how enduring is it?
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Lawson Naidu
Oh, well, the GNU came about in a lightning Quick pace within a few weeks of the election in May last year, and it went through its teething problems. It's the first time we've had a coalition at a national level in South Africa. The rules of the game were not clear to any of the parties and so there were difficulties in that. I think in the last couple of months Senate heads have come to the fore and agreed on the process of managing this multi party coalition or government of national unity. And I think that has created a level of stability now for both of the main parties in that coalition, the ANC and the Democratic Alliance. And I think it's in the interest of both of those main parties at this point, as well as perhaps the other eight parties in this coalition, for the arrangement to endure certainly for the foreseeable future because it serves everyone's interest, it has created a level of stability. We're beginning to see an uptick in the economic forecast, obviously from a very low base. But there is a recognition that this is in the best interests of South Africa. And despite there being voices in both of those main parties that are detractors of this coalition arrangement, the sensible Centre seems to be holding.
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David Pilling
Elizabeth, the markets seem to have loved the gnu and investors believe that the DA perhaps can blunt some of the excesses of the ANC and perhaps even help curb corruption. I was with Tim Shabalaba, the CEO of Standard bank the other day. He was talking about green shoots in the economy, admittedly from a very low base. We've had basically stagnation in the South African economy for at least a decade. Do you think, Elizabeth, that the GNU is beginning to have an impact on the economy? And can we see these green shoots that many are now claiming?
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Elizabeth Cremona
Absolutely. I think there are definitely green shoots. The point is to make sure that, as with plants that one has in one's garden, that the green shoots are not trodden on. There was already a process that the President had initiated even before the elections that was really about working together with the private sector and getting some of the critical challenges that the economy was facing addressed. And I think what we've seen over the last year or so or two years now nearly is really a pickup in that regard. I suppose one of the most important developments has been one from, I think October this year when we were finally removed off the Financial Action task force force FATF that Grey listed us in 2023. I think that was extremely important. It helps with the so called cost of capital which was also a focus of the South African G20 presidency. Also relatedly, we've seen confidence shown in those green shoots by Standards and Poor's upgrading us. We're still in junk status but we have a positive outlook and we've gone up a couple of notches. So that's also extremely useful. These are simply examples of how people are seeing us. What are the concrete steps in that regard that have really borne fruit? One of the most important is the fact that load shedding, the electricity shortages that we've experienced for several years have now stabilised. From March, April last year we haven't really had any significant load shedding. I mean there have been power outages in cities and so on, but those have been related to local problems. I think there's been an improvement in logistics, in our ports, in our freight rail linked to the. The government is working and the presidency is working very closely with the private sector. And there are private sector leaders who've really expended time and resources in working with the presidency in this regard. I mean, this is part of the broader project, Operation Vulindlea. There's also been some progress on water and investment in infrastructure. And so all of these give confidence both to the markets and also to investors that things are on an upward trajectory. Of course, the biggest challenge still remains high unemployment, particularly among the youth, and of course inequality. But those cannot be solved overnight. We need to get the economy growing and these building blocks that I've outlined are critical to achieving that.
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David Pilling
Yes, Lawson, I'd like to bring you in. Elizabeth was talking about Operation Vulindlella, which means, I think to clear a path in Zulu. But it's in a sense something like the delivery unit that Blair initiated in his government. And it's also an agreement by the ancient and now the broader coalition to work with the private sector. This, I think has led to a slightly peculiar situation in which publicly you have the ANC still sort of denouncing white minority capital and even capitalism, while at the same time it's leaning quite heavily behind the scenes on the private sector to help it fix a leaky ship. I mean, first of all, is that a fair analysis of what's going on and how sustainable is that dichotomy?
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Lawson Naidu
Well, you know, you've always had these debates within the ANC and you know, going back to the Zuma era of the radical economic transformation component of the ANC that denounces so called white monopoly capital and a liberal market economy. But that isn't the dominant view in the African National Congress, certainly not today. And as Elizabeth said, this program of governance Operation Vulondle stems from government's Economic Reconstruction and recovery program from 2020, way before the coalition government came into place. It was a response to the COVID pandemic at the time, but it has opened the door to cooperation with the private sector in key areas, including the network industries. You know, you've spoken about energy, water, but rail, ports and so on. And it's not translating as yet into the kind of economic growth we need, but those foundations need to be built before capital will enter the economy and create the impetus for greater economic development.
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David Pilling
Yes, crucially, we're seeing for the first time, really an uptick in the amount of minerals that are being transported along the Transnet rail infrastructure in South Africa after years and years of decline. Lawson, as we're beginning to see these positive signs, a bombshell suddenly appeared. Elizabeth referred to it briefly. This is the Madlanga Commission. It's become a daily soap opera being watched by South Africans live on tv. What is it and what is it revealing?
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Lawson Naidu
The M Commission came about because of startling revelations made by provincial police commissioner in Kwazilu Natal, Lt. Gen. Mkwanazi in July of this year, where he alleged that there were links between organized crime syndicates, people in law enforcement agencies, including the police, politicians, and even perhaps people in the judiciary. So, you know, these were wide ranging. And the President's response was to establish a judicial commission of inquiry chaired by a recently retired judge of the Constitutional Court in South Africa, Justice Matlanga. And that commission has been sitting for a couple of months now and as you say, hearing daily testimony. The revelations that are coming out are obviously quite startling and shocking, but they have yet to be tested, many of them. And in fact, there have already been contradictions of some of the major allegations that were made by Mkwanasi in his July media conference. So we were expecting an interim report from the Madlanga Commission and that, I think, will give us some aspect of what they think they found. But, I mean, I think the reality is that our law enforcement agencies are in a mess. They have been infiltrated by criminal and organised crime syndicates and the rot has to be weeded out. And it's going to take a major overhaul of the law enforcement agencies in order to begin to win the fight against crime and corruption.
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David Pilling
Elizabeth, the next big milestone now are local elections. How much do you think the ANC will be punished partly for these revelations? Last time we saw its vote vote fall about 10 percentage points. Are we going to see another steep decline? And what would that mean?
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Elizabeth Cremona
Of course, the local Government elections are about a year away and, you know, they say one day is a long time in politics, so it's really difficult to say what the likely outcome will be. What is clear, of course, is that the ANC's vote has been slipping, of course, at the local government level. We've had coalition politics for longer than we have had at the national level, and they certainly haven't covered themselves in glory, partly because of the fact that sometimes they were minority coalitions. And I think it created the possibility for the focus to be rather on unseating the particular government in place, rather than actually focusing on delivery. So it's been very, very messy and people have certainly been criticising the nature of coalitions. I would like to believe that it's part of the teething process in learning how we deal with coalition governments, whether it's at local or national level. I think it also has to do to some extent with the frameworks under which the local governments operate. I think there are probably areas that we can look at from a legislation perspective that can make coalition governments at local level more stable. We are likely to see more of that, I think, in the elections next year.
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David Pilling
Yes, there's this big battle looming in Johannesburg where Helen Ziller, probably the Democratic Alliance's most famous politician, is vying to become mayor of Johannesburg. Could this see the DA break out of what has been a box where it doesn't seem to have been able to get much more than 22% of the vote? Could it find itself running Johannesburg and what difference could that make to national politics?
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Elizabeth Cremona
I don't know whether we'll see in Joburg an election that gives the DA an outright majority. It might be able to cobble together a coalition and certainly having somebody like Helen Zilla as mayor could probably turn quite a few things around. But, you know, she has also been a divisive figure. She's taken to Twitter on several occasions to make some comments, whether it is about the virtues of colonialism or certainly the way in which she has taken the battle to the anc. I think there are people who probably feel uncomfortable with that. And so I'm not quite sure how the electorate in Joburg might respond to that. But effective she most certainly is.
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David Pilling
Lawson turning back to the anc, Cyril Ramaphosa, who in a sense has been a champion of the gnu. He's likely to be replaced as ANC president and possibly president of the country in 2028. In the run up to the 2029 presidential elections, his deputy, Paul Mashtille, Stands in pole position though there's possibly going to be an attempt at a kind of Stop Paul Mastile campaign by people around Ramaphosa who are looking for a more, let's say, business friendly alternative. How important do you think all this is going to be for the ANC and for the gnu? And can you possibly predict what politics is going to look like in the next couple of years ahead?
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Lawson Naidu
Well, I certainly wouldn't want to predict where we might be in two years time. But let me start by saying that, you know, it's not just the ANC that's going through leadership contestations. The Democratic alliance have a leadership congress coming up in April next year and their current leader, John Steenhazen is now coming under some pressure after some recent personal financial scandals over Uber Eats. Uber eats on the party credit card. That's correct. So you know, there are divisions there and that could certainly also have an impact on the gnu because Steenhesn has been a strong supporter of the Government of National Unity. But you know, what happens in the ANC is obviously critically important for the future of this country. As we speak now, the ANC has just started a National General Council meeting in the Haten Province that will give us an indication of what happens as we move into the ANC's next elective conference in two years time. In December 2027. Ramaphosa is not able to stand as president of the country again. So he will in all likelihood relinquish his role as leader of the anc. And as you say, Paul Mashatile is in pole position, his deputy to take over. But that gathering is two years out and there will be other candidates that will emerge over that period. Whilst there are some in the ANC who feel that an uncontested election might be the way forward to heal the divisions in the party, as it were, ahead of those critical elections in 2029 and to try and stave off a further deterioration in support of the anc. That's a long way out. And even in recent days we've seen the speaker of the national assembly in Parliament, Toko Dejiza's name come up as a potential presidential candidate more aligned with the Ramakphosa faction within the anc. But there's, you know, a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we get to that point.
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David Pilling
And Lawson, if you had to put money on it, would you Bet that in 2029 the GNU will still be in power in South Africa?
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Lawson Naidu
Well, you know, I think there are a couple of critical moments before that. You know, the outcome of these local government elections next year. I think the ANC vote is going to be under pressure and I think the ANC's attempts will be to try and limit the damage in next year's elections because it is at a local level that people feel the impact of the failure of ANC policies and the failure of municipalities to deliver services to people. So the ANC votes will come under pressure. How well would the DA do nationally? We don't know. A lot of the focus is going to be on Johannesburg because of the specter of Helen Ziller being their candidate. But will they be able to break through that 22% that you spoke about earlier? That's still a question to be decided. So the outcome of next year's local government elections will be a test for this coalition government and then obviously what happens in particular in the ANC conference in 2027. Mashatilah and his grouping have been warmer towards having an arrangement with the Economic Freedom Fighters or even the MK party. So that may shift fundamentally the nature of our politics going forward. So 2027 is going to be the critical moment. But I think most political parties in Parliament at the moment recognize the importance of a stable government and that the GNU is able to provide this. And I think there'll be a hope that it can continue certainly up until the next election.
- [27:31]
David Pilling
That was Lawson Naidu, Executive Secretary of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, speaking to me from Cape Town and ending this edition of the Rahman Review. We also heard from Elizabeth Sideropoulos, Chief Executive of of the South African Institute of International affairs, speaking to me from Doha. Thanks for listening. Gideon will be back next week, so please join us again.
- [28:12]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
The latest episode of the Next Five podcast is all about the energy transition. I speak to Elizabeth Cremona at Ember.
- [28:19]
Elizabeth Cremona
It costs far more to not invest in your grid than to actually invest.
- [28:23]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Massimo Bataini at Prismian Data center in.
- [28:25]
Lawson Naidu
US Require significant investment for utilities and.
- [28:28]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Maria Mendeluce at We mean Business Coalition.
- [28:32]
Elizabeth Cremona
US$1 trillion are spent in subsidizing fossil fuels benefiting the richest people and not the poorest.
- [28:39]
Podcast Host (Next Five)
Listen to the next five wherever you get your podcasts.
- [28:42]
David Pilling
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