The Rachman Review

Episode: Trump takes aim at South Africa
Host: David Pilling (standing in for Gideon Rachman)
Guests: Lawson Naidu (civil society activist), Elizabeth Sideropoulos (foreign policy expert)
Date: December 18, 2025

Overview

This episode delves into the state of South Africa’s internal politics, its race relations, and the evolving – and now highly fraught – relationship with the United States under Donald Trump. Following inflammatory comments and diplomatic snubs from Trump, the conversation explores the real situation on the ground in South Africa, the economic and political challenges faced by the government, and prospects for the country's coalition government, the GNU (Government of National Unity).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Accusations and US-South Africa Diplomatic Tensions

• Trump's Claims: Donald Trump has falsely claimed that South Africa is perpetrating a “white genocide” and has publicly offered asylum to white Afrikaners in the US—a narrative largely at odds with realities on the ground. He also snubbed South Africa's hosting of the G20 and threatened its exclusion from future summits. (00:45–01:56)
• Diplomatic Fallout: There are new tariffs of 30% on South African goods, and broader economic/diplomatic pressures have been ramped up.

Quote:
“Donald Trump has falsely accused South Africa of carrying out a white genocide. He has offered asylum to white Afrikaners…but very few have taken him up on his offer.”
— David Pilling (00:29–01:38)

2. The Reality of Race Relations in South Africa

• No ‘White Genocide’: Lawson Naidu refutes Trump’s claims, saying there is no crisis of racial violence targeting whites, but rather high general levels of violence, often most affecting poor Black communities. (02:46–04:01)
• Complexity and Progress: Moments of national significance, like hosting the G20, have unified citizens across racial lines, countering the notion of deep racial fracture.

Quotes:
“There’s no racial genocide taking place…the reality is high levels of racialized inequality…But I don’t think we can say there’s a race relations crisis.”
— Lawson Naidu (02:46–03:39)

“Do we still have racists in our midst? Absolutely…Have we realized the Rainbow Nation dream of Archbishop Tutu? No…but the country in many senses has actually come together.”
— Elizabeth Sideropoulos (05:03–06:12)

3. Violent Crime and Societal Challenges

• Non-Racial Nature of Violence: Violent crime is severe, affecting all communities. Whites are not exempt, but the vulnerable—especially in townships—suffer most.
• Institutional Corruption: Problems in policing and crime intelligence stem from corruption and infiltration by criminal syndicates. Two inquiries are ongoing into law enforcement. (04:01–06:12)

4. Inflammatory Rhetoric and Political Radicalization

• Controversial Songs and Rhetoric: Discussion of politically charged songs (e.g., “Kill the Boer”) and the shifting stance of the ANC. The entry of radical parties (MK Party, EFF) has raised tensions but also forced the ruling party to more carefully manage messaging. (06:12–07:44)

5. Economic and Diplomatic Stakes

• High US Economic Ties: The US remains a critical economic and investment partner, but relations have been rocky following South Africa’s foreign policy choices (e.g., BRICS, Ukraine stance) and now new tariffs.
• Lack of US Ambassador: South Africa has lacked an ambassador in Washington, worsening diplomatic engagement.
• Challenges in Dialogue: Emotional narratives around “Afrikaner genocide” make rational negotiation difficult. (07:54–09:55)

Quote:
“It’s very difficult if the issue here is, well, Afrikaner genocide and, you know, don’t confuse me with the facts, so it becomes really difficult to engage.”
— Elizabeth Sideropoulos (09:10–09:55)

6. South Africa’s Global Position & Multilateralism

• Championing Non-Alignment: South Africa’s focus is on multilateralism and being part of a multipolar global order. The G20 summit was seen as a step in this direction.
• US Needs South Africa: Critical minerals tie US economic interests to South Africa, suggesting that despite friction, compromise may be necessary. (09:55–11:23)

7. European Allies and International Support

• Reluctant Allies: European countries are hesitant to openly support South Africa against US pressure, despite private agreement with some of its positions. (11:23–12:26)

Domestic Politics and Economic Outlook

8. The GNU (Government of National Unity) and Economic ‘Green Shoots’

• Formation and Purpose: The ANC, after losing majority support (down to 40%), quickly formed a broad coalition including the Democratic Alliance (DA). It’s the first such coalition at the national level. (12:56–13:35)
• Stability and Early Success: Despite initial teething issues, the coalition is providing stability. Signs of economic recovery (“green shoots”) are beginning to show.
• Structural Reforms: Removal from the FATF ‘grey list’ and an upgrade from Standard & Poor’s (albeit still junk status) signal some progress. Load shedding has decreased, and private sector partnerships are helping fix longstanding issues in logistics and infrastructure. (13:35–17:37)

Quotes:
“I think it’s in the interest of both…for the arrangement to endure, certainly for the foreseeable future…this has created a level of stability.”
— Lawson Naidu (13:35–14:44)

“There are definitely green shoots…one of the most important is the fact that load shedding…the electricity shortages…have now stabilized.”
— Elizabeth Sideropoulos (15:19–17:37)

9. Operation Vulindlela and the Role of the Private Sector

• Pragmatic Cooperation: While the ANC continues to rhetorically denounce “white monopoly capital,” it increasingly relies on private sector collaboration (Operation Vulindlela) to address network industries, energy, transport, and water.
• Internal Party Contradictions: These contradictions are acknowledged, but the priority is economic recovery. (17:37–19:18)

10. Revelations and Scandal: The Madlanga Commission

• Unveiling Corruption: The Madlanga Commission was established after allegations of deep ties between organized crime, police, politicians, and potentially judiciary. The ongoing inquiry is uncovering startling and sometimes contested testimonies. Major overhaul of law enforcement is needed. (19:18–21:05)

Quote:
“The reality is that our law enforcement agencies are in a mess…infiltrated by criminal and organised crime syndicates…The rot has to be weeded out.”
— Lawson Naidu (19:46–21:05)

11. Election Prospects and Political Realignments

• ANC's Declining Popularity: Upcoming local elections (about a year off) may see ANC punished for corruption revelations; coalition politics are the new norm, but have been messy at local level.
• DA Opportunities: Helen Zille as a possible mayor of Johannesburg is watched as a test if the DA can finally break beyond its traditional support base. (21:05–22:56)
• Future Leadership Battles: Cyril Ramaphosa will step down ahead of 2029; his deputy, Paul Mashatile, is favored to succeed, but internal contests (including notable figures like Toko Dijeza) and DA leadership troubles could reshape both coalition and national politics. (23:35–26:01)

12. Prospects for the GNU and Political Stability

• Short to Medium Term: Both Naidu and Sideropoulos foresee the coalition holding at least into the next general elections, with local elections and internal party congresses as major stress points. The need for stability is widely recognized.

Quote:
“Most political parties in Parliament at the moment recognize the importance of a stable government and that the GNU is able to provide this.”
— Lawson Naidu (26:10–27:31)

Notable Quotes

• “The reality in South Africa is that we have high levels of racialized inequality…But I don’t think that we can say that there’s a race relations crisis.” — Lawson Naidu (02:46–03:39)
• “I think there are definitely green shoots…as with plants…make sure the green shoots are not trodden on.” — Elizabeth Sideropoulos (15:19–16:15)
• “The reality is that our law enforcement agencies are in a mess. They have been infiltrated by criminal and organised crime syndicates and the rot has to be weeded out.” — Lawson Naidu (19:46–21:05)
• “It’s very difficult if the issue here is, well, Afrikaner genocide and...don't confuse me with the facts, so it becomes really difficult to engage.” — Elizabeth Sideropoulos (09:10–09:55)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• (00:29–01:38) — Introduction to Trump's accusations and South Africa's reaction
• (02:46–06:12) — Nature of race relations and crime in South Africa
• (07:54–09:55) — Economic and diplomatic implications of US tensions
• (12:56–14:44) — Formation and significance of the Government of National Unity (GNU)
• (15:19–17:37) — Economic green shoots and reforms
• (19:18–21:05) — The Madlanga Commission and revelations of corruption
• (22:32–23:35) — Helen Zille, potential leadership changes, and party politics
• (26:10–27:31) — Prospects for stability of the GNU

Conclusion

This episode paints a nuanced picture of South Africa’s challenges and hopes in the face of both international and domestic pressures. Despite Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, race relations—while complex and marked by inequality—are not at crisis levels. The broad coalition government has brought stability and is credited with initial economic improvements and institutional reform efforts. However, criminality, political infighting, and a shifting global order suggest a bumpy road ahead, with the upcoming local and national elections as critical junctures for South Africa’s democracy, economy, and global standing.