Will These Financial Predictions Happen in 2026?

Summary

The Ramsey Show Highlights

Episode: Will These Financial Predictions Happen in 2026?
Date: February 23, 2026
Hosts & Speakers: Ken Coleman (A), George Kamel (B), Rachel Cruze (C)

Episode Overview

This fast-paced episode features Ramsey Network experts making bold (and some safe) financial and economic predictions for the year 2026. With plenty of humor, competitive spirit, and candid opinions, the hosts forecast trends in mortgage rates, sports betting, real estate (particularly Airbnb), the stock market, "buy now, pay later" services, and the evolving job market. The tone is lively, sometimes acerbic, but always focused on providing practical insights and warnings to listeners about the financial year ahead.

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Key Predictions & Insights

1. Mortgage Rates in 2026

Rachel Cruze’s Prediction:

• Mortgage rates will "continue to slowly go down" (00:39)
• Cites a drop from "around 7%" to "about 5.48% on a 15-year fixed"
• Expects rates to remain in the "low fives, high fours" by end of 2026
• Quote:
  • "I think we're gonna slowly throughout the year keep seeing that..." (00:49)

Ken Coleman’s Counterpoint:

• Predicts rates will "hold" steady at current levels rather than drop further (01:45)
• Quote:
  • "I think what anyone would call a hold. I think it's going to hold." (01:53)

Context:

• Political tensions between former President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with Powell possibly stepping down and a new chair expected in 2026 (01:20)

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2. The Impact of Sports Betting

George Kamel’s Prediction:

• Sports betting will "continue sabotaging young men's lives" (02:01)
• Points to "36% of men under 30" having placed bets in past year (02:16)
• Highlights normalization and rising social acceptance
• Quote:
  • "It's just socialized gambling. It's, hey, I'm having fun with the buddies..." (02:24)

Rachel Cruze’s Take:

• Strong reaction, seeing it as the "most unattractive thing" (02:58)
• Criticizes young men who bet rather than invest in housing:
  • "I don't own a home...but I'm going to go in freaking sports bet 'cuz I'm not athletic enough to play the game..." (03:06)

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3. Airbnb and Real Estate Outlook

Ken Coleman’s Prediction:

• Airbnbs will see a divide:
  • Cheaper and oversaturated markets will decline
  • Luxury listings will see demand remain strong (03:19)
• Warns over-leveraged Airbnb owners not to expect a rebound; advises to sell if possible (03:57)
• Quote:
  • "If you can sell, I'd sell." (04:14)

Explanation:

• "Too saturated, too much supply...that's why." (04:19)

Rachel Cruze’s Quip:

• Mocks the "same dude that sports bets" and boasts about owning "like, eight Airbnbs" on TikTok (04:30)

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4. Stock Market Forecast

George Kamel’s Prediction:

• Expects the stock market to "stay relatively consistent" (04:55)
• No major crash; predicts a positive year supported by "AI and tech"
• Quote:
  • "I think we'll come back up pretty quickly." (05:16)

Perspective:

• Predicts a steady end-of-year result, not repeating the recent cycles of dramatic ups and downs

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5. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Services

Rachel Cruze’s Warning:

• Predicts BNPL services will worsen for consumers:
  • More fees, stacked loans, increased consumer spending (05:36)
• Retailers and banks profiting by encouraging these options (05:55)
• Quote:
  • "Stores are making so much money...they see the money." (06:02)

George Kamel Adds:

• Cites news that "Affirm is rolling out a rent buy now, pay later option" (06:13)
• Disturbed by the scale and risk of applying BNPL to expenses like rent

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6. 2026 Job Market Predictions

Ken Coleman's Phrase:

• "Low hire, low fire": Stagnant job market, few layoffs or new hires (07:04)
• Unemployment at "4.5%, maybe near 5%" (07:14)
• Cited uncertainty due to tariffs and macroeconomic caution
• Quote:
  • "We're okay with who we got and we're gonna stay in a holding pattern." (07:28)

Growth Sectors:

• Healthcare
• Skilled trades ("don't sleep on the trades!")
• Logistics and AI-adjacent roles (08:02)

White Collar Tech:

• AI is replacing white-collar tech jobs; "private equity equals public misery" (08:44)

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7. General Advice and Takeaways

• Despite all predictions, the panel emphasizes that "nobody knows what's going to happen, so just stay the course." (08:55 - B)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On sports betting:

  • George Kamel: "It's just socialized gambling. It's, hey, I'm having fun with the buddies..." (02:24)
  • Rachel Cruze: "It's the most unattractive thing." (02:58)

• On Airbnbs:

  • Ken Coleman: "If you have over-leveraged yourself, do not think that you're going to eventually rebound in 2026. In other words, if you can sell, I'd sell." (03:57)
  • Rachel Cruze: "It's the same dude that sports bets that's also on TikTok and it's like, I own, like, eight Airbnbs and I'm great. You are so annoying." (04:30)

• On Private Equity:

  • Ken Coleman: "Private equity equals public misery." (08:44)

• On Overall Uncertainty:

  • George Kamel: "Here's the truth. Nobody knows what's going to happen, so just stay the course." (08:55)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Mortgage Rates Predictions: 00:38 – 01:56
• Sports Betting Trends: 02:01 – 03:19
• Airbnb Real Estate Market: 03:19 – 04:30
• Stock Market & BNPL Forecasts: 04:55 – 06:27
• Job Market Predictions: 06:53 – 08:54
• General Wrap-up & Advice: 08:55 – 09:02

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Summary Table: 2026 Predictions at a Glance

| Topic | Prediction | Who Said It | Timestamp | |--------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------|------------| | Mortgage Rates | Slow decrease (low 5%, high 4%) | Rachel Cruze | 00:39 | | Mortgage Rates | Hold steady at 5.5% | Ken Coleman | 01:53 | | Sports Betting | More young men impacted | George Kamel | 02:01 | | Airbnb Market | Luxury up, cheap/mid down | Ken Coleman | 03:19 | | Stock Market | Steady-positive, no crash | George Kamel | 04:55 | | Buy Now, Pay Later | More fees, more consumer pain | Rachel Cruze | 05:36 | | Job Market | "Low hire, low fire" year | Ken Coleman | 07:04 |

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Takeaway Message:
While the team’s best guesses touch on everything from mortgage rates and market stability to consumer risk and job outlook, they stress not to base financial plans on anyone’s predictions—control what you can control, stay the course, and be wary of new trends that can easily trip up your financial wellbeing.

Transcript

[A]

In today's digital world, you need ID

[B]

theft protection that actually works. Protect yourself. @xander.com we are about to do some 2026 financial predictions.

[A]

I love a good prediction.

[B]

And we're going to play this back at the end of 2026 and find out who was right because Rachel's very competitive.

[C]

That is a, that is fine.

[A]

We are going to do that.

[B]

We should, we should.

[A]

Okay, you guys are in trouble. It's going to be two zero.

[B]

Ken, you get now if we're wrong, we're like, you know, the weatherman. It's like it's fine. You get to keep your. There's no stakes here. We're just having fun. Don't hold us to this. But here's what we think will happen for your money and in the economy.

[C]

Okay, I'm going to go first.

[B]

All right.

[C]

Okay. I think mortgage rates will continue to slowly go down. Okay.

[B]

That was a safe prediction.

[C]

So we like that. We started at around 7% and now it's sitting around 5.48% on a 15 year fix. What we've pulled.

[B]

That's actually incredible.

[C]

That's pretty great. Like people are waiting. I mean that's a, that's a pretty good. So I think we're in a slowly throughout the year keep seeing that crypto. I don't think we'll get back to 2 to 3% but I'm going to see, I'm going to rest in the low fives. High fours.

[B]

Yeah. The Fed has been moving pretty slowly on this, Ken, with good reason. They, you know, you can't do it too fast. That'll mess up the economy and you can't do it too slow. And so they're just incrementally, not to

[A]

mention their thing, political tension that has gotten fever pitch as in like WWE wrestling match back and forth between President Trump and Jerome Powell. So Powell expected to step down. So new chairman expected in 2026. What will that do?

[C]

What's going to do?

[A]

I actually, I don't agree with Rachel on that one.

[C]

Wow.

[B]

You think they're going to go up?

[A]

I think they're going to hold.

[C]

Okay, so you think it's going to be at 5.48% in December of 2026. That's what I'm holding you to.

[A]

I think what, what anyone would call a hold. I think it's going to hold.

[B]

All right. Okay, moving on. Here's mine. Sports betting will continue sabotaging young men's

[A]

lives are really going out on the end of again.

[B]

It's a safe prediction. But we've just been seeing more and

[C]

more of this stupid is.

[B]

And as more states legalize sports betting, as more people jump onto these apps and the companies ramp up their marketing,

[C]

they make so much money.

[A]

That's right.

[B]

2025 Pew Research study found 36% of men under 30 had placed a sports bet within the past year.

[A]

Yeah, so.

[B]

So it's becoming normalized. It's just socialized gambling. It's, hey, I'm having fun with the buddies and we're kind of going to see who's going to win the parlay.

[A]

That's right.

[B]

And this is a higher rate than any other age group. So these young men under 30 are going to get hit who don't have money, who are already broke.

[A]

I can tell you, as a father of a high schooler, I hear stories all the time of Chase's buddies.

[B]

Oh my God.

[A]

Wow. And they're betting on crazy stuff. Like stuff you wouldn't think. It's not just a.

[B]

Well, it becomes some kind of fun game of like, is he going to be wearing blue or red today? So what shoes is he going to be wearing?

[A]

That's right.

[C]

It is so, so stupid.

[B]

It's disheartening.

[A]

So stupid. Wow. Mama Rachel with a strong opinion.

[C]

It's the most unattractive thing.

[A]

It's unattractive.

[C]

I don't own a home. The, the, oh my God, the housing market.

[A]

You heard it here first.

[B]

Boys own a home.

[C]

But I'm going to go in freaking sports bet cuz I'm not athletic enough to play the game. So I'm going to have to.

[A]

Can't afford to take my girl out cuz I've lost parlay last night. So I like that. No. All right. Very good. Strong predict. You guys went really, really safe.

[C]

I think it's.

[A]

So I'm going to step out a little bit. This might not be popular pred, but let's talk about Airbnbs. All right. Became a very popular real estate venture. As you know, everybody thought this is my path to prosperity. And it's going through a pretty complex shift. In other words, demand still remains pretty strong. But what we're seeing is, is the cheaper Airbnbs, less cost, smaller, smaller areas, you will see a continual decline. But your luxury listings will. Will go up.

[C]

Oh, you're going to.

[B]

The people who have the money will still be spending, but other people are more price conscious.

[A]

That's right. So if you're in the Airbnb game, if you've got a luxury listing I think you're probably in good shape. The demand will remain strong, which is a small percentage. Small percentage. If you have over leveraged yourself, do not think that you're going to eventually rebound in 2026. In other words, if you can sell, I'd sell.

[B]

Yeah. That's. People just go, well, it's easy money. People are going to be booking this 30 days a year, and it doesn't work out like that.

[A]

The reason that the. The cheaper market, just to give you a why is because there's oversaturation. Everybody got in the game thinking, oh, I'm going to buy a place down at the beach. So anyway, too saturated, too much supply. That's why.

[B]

There you go.

[C]

You know, it's the same dude that sports bets. That's also on Tik Tok. And it's like, I own like, eight Airbnbs and I'm great. You are so annoying, Rachel.

[A]

You're right.

[B]

Rachel is exhausted by you, young man.

[A]

By the way, Rachel's coming for the bros today. She's got the bros.

[C]

I feel like y' all need a little shake.

[B]

I agree.

[C]

Because you're not cool.

[A]

She probably hates creatine, too.

[C]

I take creatine.

[A]

Oh.

[C]

In my protein shakes when I work.

[A]

Good for you. I'm glad you, the bros. And you

[B]

can agree on one thing at least. All right, here's the next one. I think the stock market will actually stay relatively consistent. We've had a few good years, and everyone now goes, there's going to be a crash. It's all coming down, and everyone's got their predictions. I think the US Economy is strong. I think AI and tech will carry us for the foreseeable future. And if it went, it dips, everyone's going to assume it's a crash. It's going to be just a little low. I think we'll come back up pretty quickly.

[A]

So you're not saying steady throughout the year, Saying it ends the year pretty much at a. At a level?

[B]

Yeah, I don't like. We had a few years that were, you know, negative 20%, and in the past few years, it's been plus 20%, plus 16%. I think we're going to have a positive year.

[A]

Wow. No camel crash. No.

[C]

I think the trend of buy now, pay later. So I'll hit. I. I'll get mad at the girls who shop. Okay. Because that's sometimes who uses this. I think they're going to become worse and worse and worse for the consumer. Meaning I think there's going to be more Fees. I think that you're going to be able to loan sack, you know, take multiple, keep moving. They are making so much money. Stores are making so much money. When people take the buy now, pay later option, they end up spending so much more. So they're, they see, they see the money. The, the banks and the, and the, and the stores, the retailers and they know I'm going to make so much so they're going to continue to expand that.

[B]

Can I affirm your prediction?

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Pun intended. I just saw Firm is rolling out a rent buy now, pay later option so you can put your rent on buy now, pay later. That really frightens me. With the amount of money that you're putting on a short term loan, that frightens me. So I think you're right.

[A]

Can I tell you, I want to tell the viewers and the listeners I have never seen the lovely sunny disposition of Rachel Cruz. So cloudy. I could see it across the desk. She's just sour. Yeah.

[C]

I was mad.

[A]

And it's not because of her. It's this topic. She's got sports betting buy now payload. She is just all of her buttons. I love seeing disgusted Rachel. America needs more of that. Let's, let's get you back on the horn. Let's talk about the job market.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

This is the big, everybody's always thinking what's going on job. It's not been great. You saw a slowdown in 2025. Here's my theme. You know me, I got to go with a little phrase.

[B]

You love a theme.

[A]

I love a phrase. Is it a, is it a 2026 job market will be ready. Low hire, low fire. In other words, you won't see. Now she's laughing.

[C]

Kelly says, oh, wow.

[A]

You know what? Kelly doesn't appreciate that this is rooted in accuracy. Low, higher means we're not going to see a hot job market. It's going to stay pretty stagnant. I think you're going to be in the 4.5%. You may see a spike getting near 5% depending on some situations. We still don't know where all the tariff situation where all those tariffs, how's it gonna shake out? We're still in a wait and see mode which is why a lot of companies are on the sidelines as it relates to hiring. So what I mean by low hire is I don't expect to see companies hiring a lot of people. I think it's gonna be a wait and see for 2026. But here's the good news because companies also in a wait and see, they're gonna be reluctant to fire talent. Okay. So it's kind of a. We're okay with who we got and we're gonna stay in a holding pattern. So that's what I mean by low hire, low fire. Now, a couple of quick things. Growth sectors. I think there will be hot sectors regardless of low hire, low fire, and that is health care. Skilled trades don't sleep on the trades. They're blowing up logistics and some AI adjacent roles.

[B]

Oh, so it's not replacing jobs, but they're connected.

[A]

White collar jobs. Right now, specifically white collar tech is getting killed because that's where we're seeing already how AI is beginning to kick.

[C]

How is it? I mean, are you seeing numbers?

[A]

Yes. Yeah. You're not seeing a lot of. A lot of young people that be in moving into the technology sector as what we would call white cop$tech. They're not getting the jobs because those jobs have been replaced by AI and

[B]

we're seeing private equity come in, buy it, clean house and go. We don't know.

[A]

What I like to say about private equity.

[B]

What's that?

[A]

Private equity equals public misery.

[B]

That's why we bring Ken on, guys. He brings the heat.

[C]

Ken is. He's all about the words. I appreciate it.

[A]

I'll be here for 30 more seconds.

[B]

Here's the truth. Nobody knows what's going to happen, so just stay the course.

[A]

I do.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Take those predictions to the bank, y'. All.

[C]

We will come back December of 2020.

[B]

We will competitive, you guys. I was going to put Ken on hold. That's my dream in life to have a hold button for Ken. Thank you for joining us, Ken. We had a great time. Hope you appreciate our predictions. Control what you can control. It's all you can do. The best ID theft protection comes from Xander. Real monitoring, full restoration, no fluff. Learn more at xander. Com.