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On December 10 of last year I published an episode of the podcast that summarized the rules for how the Federal Open Market committee elects their chair. The Federal Reserve Act requires the Fed Chair to be elected in the January meeting for the balance of the year. It has been customary for a Fed chair to resign their position as Fed chair and to relinquish their seat on the FOMC in order to create space for the incoming chair to take their seat on the committee.

On December 10, I made it clear that the committee has followed the custom of electing a new chair in January, and then after the resignation of the chair, making way for the new Fed chair to take their seat. While unprecedented, the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell would not be required to resign and it would in fact require a change to the Federal Reserve act in the Congress and the Senate in order to force the Fed chair to resign.

I put this forward as a distinct possibility.

Well, as fate would have it, today Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that he would not be stepping down, and that he would only do so when he felt that conditions were right to protect the integrity of board as a whole.

Powell is clearly signaling to the President the terms under which he gets to appoint his new Chair. This is a high stakes game of chess. It will continue to make headlines probably for days and weeks to come.

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My December Fed Prediction Came True