Most people think of counterparty risk as a banking concept. Will the other party perform? Will they pay? Will they deliver? But in a supply chain, counterparty risk is much broader. It includes whether your supplier can obtain raw materials, whether their supplier can get feedstock, whether the shipper can secure insurance, whether the vessel will even sail, whether the port will accept cargo, whether a manufacturer can operate with intermittent inputs, and whether the customer at the far end still has the liquidity to take delivery when costs have doubled.

A closure in Hormuz does not mean every factory shuts down tomorrow morning. That’s not how these systems work. There is a lag. Cargoes already in transit continue moving. Inventories buffer the shock for a period of time. Companies rely on safety stock, substitute routes, and emergency procurement. For a brief window, the financial markets can tell themselves a reassuring story.

If fertilizer inputs are impaired, that impacts agriculture with a delay, but the delay does not remove the problem. It simply means the effect appears later in the form of food shortages or higher food prices.

Governments can print money to try and wall paper over the problem. But they can't print food and they can't print oil.

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The Real Counter Party Risk