Today we're talking about a challenge that extends far beyond higher education. It's a problem that affects shopping malls, office parks, resorts, industrial facilities, and even entire master-planned developments.

It's what happens when a property becomes disproportionate to the economy that surrounds it.

A recent story out of Vermont highlights the issue perfectly. It’s been local news in Vermont for the past 6 years. This weekend it was highlighted in the Wall Street Journal.

Green Mountain College closed its doors in 2019. The campus consisted of roughly 115 acres and 16 major buildings in the small town of Poultney, Vermont. A buyer acquired the campus at a steep discount with plans to transform it into a resort, distillery, hotel, and residential development.

The vision sounded compelling. The problem wasn't the buildings. The problem wasn't even the business plan. The problem was location.

Many investors have encountered former manufacturing plants in small towns. During their peak years, these facilities employed thousands of workers and generated enormous economic activity.

Once the factory closes, investors often see a million-square-foot building available at pennies on the dollar.

The temptation is obvious. The reality is much harder.

If the local labor force is shrinking, transportation links are limited, and regional economic growth is stagnant, the replacement tenant may never arrive.

The same principle applies to dying regional malls.

A two-million-square-foot mall might have replacement value of hundreds of millions of dollars, but if the trade area only supports a fraction of that retail activity, the property becomes overbuilt relative to its market.

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