Podcast Summary: The Real Time Show – Episode: Audicle Analysis — Tariffs And The State Of The Industry 2025

Hosts: Rob Nudds & Alon Ben Joseph
Release Date: June 29, 2025

Introduction

In this insightful episode of The Real Time Show, hosts Rob Nudds and Alon Ben Joseph delve deep into the complexities facing the watchmaking industry in 2025. The discussion is anchored by a comprehensive analysis from industry analyst David, who examines the impact of tariffs, the bifurcation between luxury brands and microbrands, and the shifting dynamics between major markets like the United States and China.

1. The Current State of the Watch Industry

David opens the conversation by reflecting on his previous predictions from 2024, where he anticipated a downturn in the watch industry influenced by its focus on the ultra-rich and the aftermath of a significant pandemic. He acknowledges the accuracy of his earlier forecasts, highlighting the industry's ongoing challenges and potential future directions.

David (00:06):
"In those pieces I lamented the state of a watch industry that seemingly catered only to the ultra-rich while careening towards a downturn fresh off a once in a century so far pandemic induced bender."

2. Impact of Tariffs on the Industry

A central theme of the episode is the introduction of tariffs on Swiss watch imports into the United States. David discusses the initial panic within the industry over the 31% tariff, which has since been paused for three months. He argues that the industry was perhaps overly sensitive, given its history of handling price increases.

David (07:45):
"It was the tariffs that really underscored how the industry had adopted the worst of its beliefs."

Rob adds that these tariffs might have served as a "reset" for the industry, forcing brands to confront pricing elasticity and consumer demand.

Rob (16:19):
"These tariffs could have been exactly what the watch industry maybe needed for a reset."

3. Division Between Luxury Brands and Microbrands

The discussion highlights a growing bifurcation in the watch market. While high-end luxury brands like Vacheron Constantin and Jaeger-LeCoultre continue to offer ultra-complicated and expensive timepieces, more accessible brands like Nomos and Tudor present slightly lower-priced alternatives. David questions whether the industry intends for the broader consumer base to settle for these mid-tier offerings.

David (02:30):
"Does the industry really want a world where the lower caste of consumers has to make do with a new Tudor every year, even more so than before?"

Rob counters this by pointing out the significant price hikes in mainstream brands, which have alienated many potential buyers.

Rob (16:19):
"Over the last five years... the Omega Speedmaster now costs more like 8,000 rather than more like 4,000. That's a huge jump."

4. Market Dynamics: US vs China

China, once a booming market for watch sales, has seen a slowdown due to government crackdowns on gifting and bribery, which negatively impacted luxury sales. In contrast, the United States has emerged as the only growing market, albeit with its own set of challenges related to socio-economic disparities and consumer behavior.

David (04:50):
"China remains a key market for the watch industry, but is a nominally communist country... it presents challenges."
David (06:10):
"I'm not part of the 0.1% and I no longer feel welcome as a consumer of what you'd call traditional luxury brands."

Rob emphasizes how the US market's complexities have influenced industry strategies and consumer interactions.

Rob (16:19):
"The big brands here, they're not going to suffer in the same way as smaller brands."

5. Product Highlights: Blancpain's 38mm 50 Fathoms

The hosts discuss Blancpain's recent release, the 38mm 50 Fathoms, which David praises for its design but critiques for its high pricing. Rob offers a different perspective, commending the model as a significant and attainable entry point within its cachet.

David (25:37):
"They're introducing this now several years past the crazy peak that we had... it's priced at $15,000... Who's really buying that?"

Rob (21:21):
"I actually think that the 50 fathoms is a more significant and exciting watch than the Submariner."

6. The Future of Microbrands and Legacy Brands

A substantial portion of the conversation centers on the precarious position of microbrands amid rising tariffs. David expresses concern for brands like Archonaut and Schofield, which lack the financial resilience of larger companies. He warns that increased tariffs could cripple these smaller players, reducing innovation and diversity in the market.

David (29:17):
"These brands for which I worry, because these brands are interesting. These brands could satisfy our desire for interest and novelty in the watchmaking industry if they weren't potentially hamstrung by these crazy tariffs."

Rob counters by suggesting that microbrands have gained enough credibility to serve as legitimate entry points for new consumers, unlike in the past.

Rob (44:03):
"I think that if you're into watches... you want to buy the best of that type at the price point that you can afford at this moment now to feel like I'm part of this movement."

7. Consumer Perspective and Potential Shifts

The hosts explore how consumer behavior is evolving, particularly among younger generations like Millennials and Gen Z. Alon points out that the market has shifted, with new generations not necessarily aspiring first to own high-end luxury brands but rather exploring creative and accessible microbrands.

Alon (41:51):
"These days are gone. Indeed... You don't need to start with a Rolex or Omega."

Rob reflects on his own experiences, advocating for microbrands as the new gateway for watch enthusiasts who cannot afford traditional luxury timepieces.

Rob (43:51):
"If you're into watches... you want to buy the best of type at this price point that I can afford at this moment now to feel like I'm part of this movement."

8. Hosts' and Guest's Insights and Conclusions

As the episode wraps up, David, Rob, and Alon acknowledge the uncertain future of the watch industry. They emphasize the importance of microbrands in maintaining innovation and offering accessible options to consumers. However, they caution that without support, these smaller brands may struggle under the weight of tariffs and limited financial cushioning.

David (49:45):
"Maybe the big group brands have folded up some of theirs and kind of packed up and gone home. But at least we can tell ourselves that we saw it coming first by discussing it here today."

Rob concludes with a hopeful note on the resilience of microbrands and their potential to redefine the industry landscape.

Rob (50:37):
"It's a brilliant business model that he's established. He's become one of the most beloved providers of watches in the industry... that's exactly what we need."

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Real Time Show offers a comprehensive analysis of the watch industry's current challenges and future prospects. Through engaging discussions and expert insights, Rob, Alon, and David shed light on the intricate balance between luxury brands and emerging microbrands, the impact of global tariffs, and the shifting consumer landscape. For enthusiasts and industry insiders alike, this episode serves as a crucial guide to understanding and navigating the evolving world of watchmaking.

Notable Quotes:

• David (00:06):
  "There's a lot we can discuss about the current state of the industry and where it might go from here."

• Rob (16:19):
  "Over the last five years... the Omega Speedmaster now costs more like 8,000 rather than more like 4,000."

• Alon (41:51):
  "You don't need to start with a Rolex or Omega."

• David (29:17):
  "These brands could satisfy our desire for interest and novelty in the watchmaking industry if they weren't potentially hamstrung by these crazy tariffs."

• Rob (50:37):
  "He's become one of the most beloved providers of watches in the industry... that's exactly what we need."