The Realignment, Episode 579:

“Liam Kerr: Deciding to Win — A Centrist Autopsy of the Post-2024 Democratic Party and the Center's Missing Story”
October 30, 2025 | Host: Marshall Kosloff | Guest: Liam Kerr, Co-founder of Welcome

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the centrist Democratic response to the 2024 election aftermath, discussing the report “Deciding to Win: Towards a Common Sense Renewal of the Democratic Party,” authored by Welcome. Host Marshall Kosloff welcomes co-founder Liam Kerr to analyze the data-driven insights, ideological rifts, and the broader quest for a revitalized Democratic “story.” The conversation traverses the need for narrative coherence, lessons from both left and right populist movements, and how the center can rebuild political confidence and community.

Main Themes and Purpose

• Centrist Diagnosis and Recommendations:
  Examining how and why the Democratic Party veered off course in the post-Obama era, and the pitch for a pragmatic centrist reset.

• The Missing “Story” Problem:
  Exploring the challenge for centrist and moderate Democrats to articulate a narrative as compelling as those of the populist left or right.

• Learning from Movement-Building:
  Reflecting on what centrists can learn from the organizational and storytelling prowess of both the left and right.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Deciding to Win” Report and Its Takeaways

[00:00–03:47]

Marshall introduces the Welcome report, which offers five strategic recommendations for Democrats to regain electoral competitiveness:

1. Center Policy on Economics: Focus messaging on lowering costs, economic growth, job creation, and expanding the safety net.
2. Prioritize Popular Economic Policies: Push for issues like prescription drug negotiation and higher minimum wage; downplay less popular policies such as student debt forgiveness and EV subsidies.
3. Align With Voters’ Priorities: Elevate economy, cost of living, healthcare, border security, and public safety; deprioritize climate change, democracy, abortion, and identity/culture issues in messaging.
4. Moderate on Unpopular Issues: Shift rhetoric and policy on immigration, crime, energy, and select cultural issues.
5. Critique Power Structures: Offer a substantive critique of corporate, lobbyist, and elite influence—without veering into anti-capitalist or socialist territory.

“The type of politician that can succeed in a moment like this shouldn’t need a poll to tell them that ‘defund the police’ is unpopular.”
— Marshall [06:22]

2. The Critical Role of Story and Ideology

[03:47–11:07]

Marshall reflects on the political realignment—comparing the Democrats’ current drift to the Republican Party’s “autopsy” after 2012—and posits that transformative movements require a compelling story, not just data or polling.

“This is where story and ideology come in… Whoever realigns the Democratic Party… will have their own story. Biden notably had a story in 2020 and he won … The problem for Biden is that he couldn’t deliver ‘normal.’”
— Marshall [06:35]

He argues the center lacks such a story and, without it, risks irrelevance as ideological contenders set the terms of debate.

3. Diagnosing Centrist Weaknesses—and Owning Vulnerability

[11:16–17:27]

Liam Kerr agrees that centrist Democrats often validate elements of the populist right’s diagnosis (crisis at the border, crime, cultural excess) but oppose their extreme solutions. On the left, they share some policy aims but not the assumption of existential crisis or anti-American sentiment.

“The modern political center, particularly the Democratic center left, does not have the confidence and optimism and coherence that marks a successful story.”
— Liam Kerr [17:27]

He distinguishes between just following poll numbers (“wonkery”) and inspiring people with a broader narrative and community.

4. Storytelling as Strategy—And the Community Challenge

[21:16–27:19]

Story, Kerr and Kosloff agree, isn’t just comms spin but central to mobilizing volunteers, recruiting candidates, and creating resilience among moderates facing attacks from both left and right.

“We thought a lot about the tactics of community building, but the narrative and story of community building is essential…. It’s about bringing new people into the community. … It is a community and a story to believe in.”
— Liam Kerr [24:50]

Political science data show moderate candidates are less likely to run today—not because they can’t win, but because they lack supportive community and narrative infrastructure.

5. The "Second Sentence" Problem and Status Quo Critique

[27:19–33:55]

Marshall asks how centrists can add a powerful follow-up sentence after “the status quo is broken”—as Trump or Sanders could. Kerr says centrists must clarify which aspects of the status quo need changing—the ones that create chaos and insecurity, or those which actually undergird voters’ existing stability.

“The second sentence challenge is a real thing…that happens when, I think, often you’re not confident in your own story.”
— Liam Kerr [29:59]

Calm, confident over-performers—especially governors in “crossover” states—are exemplars of the centrist style.

6. Losing—and Rebuilding—The Old Centrist Story

[34:39–39:15]

Marshall details how the Cold War/Clinton-era storyline of steady technocratic progress, globalization, and demographic destiny collapsed over two decades:

• Globalization’s promises frayed (manufacturing, college-for-all not delivering);
• Demographics didn’t deliver a guaranteed Democratic future;
• Cultural and economic shocks undermined “the old story.”

“That was the old story. And you can't just sort of snap your fingers and expect [key figures] to have a new one. That’s actually a joint collective, really, really difficult project to go through.”
— Marshall [34:39]

7. Competition of Stories & Specificity as a Character Trait

[39:15–43:50]

Kerr endorses the need for a “competition of ideas” to forge a new centrist story and calls for more specificity:

“A competition of ideas will be very healthy…encouraging or even demanding more specificity for people who want to put forward a vision for the party.”
— Liam Kerr [39:15]

8. Party Versus Ideology—How the Right Does It Differently

[43:50–45:13]

Marshall highlights how the right foregrounds ideology over party, something the Democrats struggle to emulate. The discussion spans Kerr’s personal journey—from AmeriCorps through education reform to centrist Democratic organizing—underscoring the importance of networks, mentorship, and story-driven community.

9. Movement Building and “Main Characters” in Politics

[45:13–52:53]

The hosts lament the absence of movement “characters” outside of elected office—figures like Michelle Rhee in education reform—who drive credibility and trust.

“We just need more main characters, and everybody wants to shout that out.”
— Marshall [49:33]

Movements that offer both “a sense of what’s possible” and “the world is very, very messy” produce better, more pragmatic leaders.

10. Rethinking Theories of Change

[52:53–56:04]

Marshall contrasts Gen Z’s mass-mobilization paradigm with the “mid-level, staff-and-thinktankers” theory of change that catalyzed conservative and GOP realignment. He advises young activists to interrogate whether “movement size” is the true metric of impact.

11. The “Deciding to Win” Report—Core Findings

[56:04–61:01]

Kerr summarizes:

• Democrats shifted left (measurably) since 2012;
• Voters noticed and believe Democrats no longer share their priorities;
• Internal “reckoning” remains incomplete and diffuse;
• Lays out side-by-side popular/unpopular policies, rebuts “mobilization myth,” and grounds recommendations in analysis of over-performing candidates.

12. What Moderation Means (and Doesn’t) for Centrist Democrats

[61:01–67:00]

Kerr emphasizes that real moderation isn’t about “selling out” or mindlessly splitting every difference. Over-performing moderates distinguish themselves via core, authentic and sometimes controversial beliefs. Both agree the “parody” of moderation—just finding the midpoint, or shifting positions tactically—is a recipe for failure.

“The biggest part … was … to demonstrate your authenticity to voters, you actually have to believe the thing you’re differentiating on… and that is accessible to them in a way that shows, not just tells, that you’re different.”
— Liam Kerr [58:53]

13. Practical Exercise: What Do You Really Believe?

[67:32–75:19]

Marshall shares an exercise: Go through a list of unpopular and popular Democratic policies and indicate which you genuinely support. Think through your “why” and embrace clarity about tradeoffs—even if some positions are unpopular.

“Polls don’t tell me what to do. They tell me how to accomplish what I want done.”
— Marshall [71:56]

Kerr agrees, framing the problem as one of “intersectional purity” around multiple unpopular issues. Centrist coalitions can’t and shouldn’t replicate the maximalist litmus tests of the ascendant left.

14. Beyond Popularism and Embracing Factions

[75:19–82:33]

Both agree: Popularism alone isn’t enough—especially as complicated tradeoffs arise around policies like abundance or housing. Instead, storytelling and reasoned advocacy can shift unpopular positions into persuasive narratives. Marshall and Liam praise the left’s organizational dynamism; Kerr observes centrists often fail to distinguish between multiple left factions (Warren vs. Bernie camps), and lose easy coalition opportunities as a result.

15. Closing Thoughts: Community, Factionalism, and Building for 2028

[82:33–83:32]

Kerr offers high praise for the progressive left’s entrepreneurial prowess and community, and calls on the center to emulate their dynamism—while building competing, well-defined factions and stories headed into the next presidential cycle.

“We do have to look at [the left] as entrepreneurs and practitioners, and really admire what they built. In addition to having that confidence of a very clear story…”
— Liam Kerr [79:51]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The type of politician that can succeed in a moment like this shouldn’t need a poll to tell them that ‘defund the police’ is unpopular.”
  — Marshall [06:22]

• “The modern political center...does not have the confidence and optimism and coherence that marks a successful story.”
  — Liam Kerr [17:27]

• "Polls don’t tell me what to do. They tell me how to accomplish what I want done.”
  — Marshall [71:56]

• “We do have to look at [the left] as entrepreneurs and practitioners… and really admire what they built— that confidence of a very clear story…”
  — Liam Kerr [79:51]

• “A competition of ideas will be very healthy… encouraging or even demanding more specificity for people who want to put forward a vision for the party.”
  — Liam Kerr [39:15]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00–03:47: Introduction & executive summary of “Deciding to Win”
• 11:16–17:27: Defining “the story” challenge for the Democratic center
• 24:50–27:19: Community & resilience lessons from other political movements
• 34:39–39:15: Collapse of the old centrist “story”
• 56:07–61:01: Highlights and conclusions from the “Deciding to Win” report
• 67:32–75:19: Practical exercise—what unpopular/popular policies do YOU believe in?
• 79:51–82:33: Factionalism, coalition-building, and learning from the left

Conclusion

This episode offers a nuanced and searching critique of the Democratic center’s predicaments, foregrounding the “Deciding to Win” report as a tool for reassessment, but just as importantly—calls for the centrist wing to embrace real storytelling, specificity, and community-building. Marshall and Liam Kerr both agree that without a persuasive new “story of America”—rooted in clear values, operationalized through coalition, and embodied by authentic leaders—the centrists risk irrelevance in the new era of political realignment.

Listen for: Candid assessments, guidance for young (and seasoned) politicos on building durable communities and narratives, and actionable exercises for self-definition within a fractious party.