Podcast Summary: The Realignment – Episode 588

"Beyond 'Unmanned': How Drones Are (and Aren’t) Rewriting Warfare"

Guest: George M. Dougherty

Hosts: Marshall Kosloff, Saagar Enjeti

Date: January 6, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Marshall Kosloff dives deep with George M. Dougherty, author of Beast in the Machine: How Robotics and AI Will Transform Warfare and the Future of Human Conflict. Together, they explore the unfolding revolution in robotics and AI and its dramatic implications for warfare, national security, and daily life. The conversation draws historical parallels—from World War I’s mechanization to today’s drone warfare in Ukraine—challenging conventional thinking about how military innovation changes not only the battlefield, but also the societies engaged in conflict.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. The Robotics and AI Revolution in Warfare

• Historical Parallel: Dougherty positions the robotics/AI revolution as equivalent in significance to the advent of mechanized warfare in WWI.
• Main Impact: Modern robotics and AI are driving a leap in lethal precision (03:44), akin to how machine guns and artillery once suppressed maneuver in WWI, now enabled by small, inexpensive, precise drones.
• Example: The ongoing war in Ukraine is cited as the first "preview" of what this technological transformation looks like in practice—resulting in static trench dynamics and attrition due to universal precision.

Quote:

“What industrialization and mechanization did to warfare a century ago, robotics and AI are doing now... It's not because history repeats, but because technology is again reshaping the relationship between firepower and movement.”
– Marshall Kosloff (02:26)

2. The Conceptual Trap of "Unmanned"

• Key Argument: Focusing on “unmanned” as a modifier (unmanned tanks, etc.) is as limited as early terms like “horseless carriage.”
• Warning: This traps military institutions in old paradigms rather than fostering a truly new generation of robotic platforms—many of which don't resemble anything from the 20th century.
• Cambrian Explosion: The real future is an explosion of new, unfamiliar systems; current focus on drones is just an early stage.

Quote:

“When you talk about an unmanned system, we're almost blocking our own cognition about what's happening... It's leading us to be surprised and be confronted on the battlefield with innovations...”
– George Dougherty (11:32)

3. Ukraine as a Warning and Illustration

• Invention from Below: The U.S. did not invent many systems dominating Ukraine's battlefield. For example, the small strike quadcopter was invented by ISIS, and the Ukrainians—one of Europe’s poorest nations—have pioneered much of the current drone usage (13:40).
• Bottom-Up Revolution: The fighting in Ukraine and previous conflicts (like Azerbaijan vs. Armenia in 2020) were shaped by actors outside the global superpowers—signaling a shift in where innovation occurs.

Quote:

“The first war that really was fully built around robotic warfare was the war of Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2020. Azerbaijan, a tiny country, ranked 60th in the world for military spending...”
– George Dougherty (14:53)

4. The Hype Cycle and Chasing the Puck

• Overreaction and Misinterpretation: The defense and venture capital communities risk jumping to conclusions after dramatic events, e.g., "the aircraft carrier is obsolete due to FPV drones," failing to see the slow, messy evolution of technological shifts (16:37).
• Need for Foresight: Dougherty warns against the “youth soccer” mentality of chasing today’s puck (currently, drones), advocating instead to “skate to where the puck is going” (23:31).

Quote:

“If we just focus on that, the way some of the military leadership is focusing on it today... we're setting ourselves up to be once again surprised and failing to anticipate the next thing...”
– George Dougherty (23:33)

5. Balancing Present & Future in Defense Policy

• Structural Challenge: The Pentagon repeatedly oscillates between fighting today’s war and preparing for tomorrow’s—overemphasizing either the immediate (e.g., counterinsurgency in Iraq) or the theoretical future (China, drones).
• Business vs. Defense: Dougherty draws a contrast with Silicon Valley, where “only the paranoid survive”; in defense, urgent adaptation is often lacking (28:24).

Quote:

“We do have a long history of planning for the wrong war... We went and fought a jungle war in Vietnam with an air force that was built for a war of nuclear annihilation with the Soviets. That never happened.”
– George Dougherty (29:15)

6. Lessons from Military History

• Victories Aren’t Enough: Winning on the battlefield does not equate to winning wars, as seen in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan—wars are lost at the level of political objectives, not just military operations (33:45).
• Civil-Military Dynamic: Civilians need to understand and engage with military realities, since political goals, not just military victories, shape outcomes.

Quote:

“Wars are not the same thing as battles... You can win a battle, you can destroy all the targets and win a battle, but you still lose the war.”
– George Dougherty (33:45)

7. Bottom-Up Disruption & the Expanding Threat

• The Houthi Example: Small groups and third-rate military powers now use precise robotic weapons to threaten major powers, as with the Houthis in the Red Sea (41:35).
• A New, Democratic Lethality: As more actors gain access to potent robotic weaponry, the international order becomes less predictable and more dangerous for established powers.

Quote:

“Just like the onset of gunpowder... introducing this bottom up revolution, a really potent, inexpensive but powerful robotic weapons to an entire cast of new players across the globe, is really going to make things much more complicated...”
– George Dougherty (45:06)

8. The Pitfall of Technological Determinism

• Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) Revisited: The RMA, embraced by the Pentagon in the 1990s and 2000s (faster, lighter, digitally enabled warfare), did not deliver strategic victory in Iraq because technology can rarely substitute for messy politics and social dynamics (46:44).
• Key Shift: The critical question isn’t “How do we want to fight?” but “How will others force us to fight?” The future will not be shaped solely by U.S. preferences (49:58).

Quote:

“The bottom up nature of what we're seeing in this robotic first wave is really the question that's out there is not how do we want to fight is how do others want to fight us?”
– George Dougherty (49:58)

9. Offense, Defense, and Initiative in Robotic Warfare

• Not Traditional Offense vs. Defense: Robotic weapons change the calculus, favoring the side with “initiative”—the first to locate, fix, and attack (56:03).
• Case Study: Ukraine's “active defense” uses drones not for passive defense but to attack the attackers before they're in range—a dynamic blending of offense and defense.

Quote:

“It's not offense or defense that robotic weapons favor. It's the side that has the initiative, the side that can find, fix, and attack the enemy's forces first.”
– George Dougherty (58:00)

10. What Is Today’s Battleship?

• Historical Parallel: Just as aircraft carriers replaced battleships as the defining naval platform, new forms of robotic “dissociated systems”—like swarms—may soon replace tanks, destroyers, and perhaps carriers themselves (62:40).
• Warning: Old systems will linger until new, truly superior systems are both recognized and fielded.

Quote:

“When something becomes 'obsolete,' it doesn't necessarily disappear... Until you got something else, that's what you're going to have to be stuck using.”
– George Dougherty (64:00)

11. The Ethical and Societal Implications

• Civilizational Stakes: The U.S. defense culture emphasizes the ethical use of robotics in war—but as the technology democratizes, adversaries unconcerned with ethics may gain an edge.
• Societal Realignment: These technological shifts will reshape not only militaries but societies and politics globally, just as gunpowder and industrialization once did.

Quote:

“This realignment... is not just going to be something that affects military folks and professionals. It's going to affect everybody."
– George Dougherty (33:45)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Focusing on drones is like calling an automobile a horseless carriage. It's a conceptual trap that keeps institutions locked into old categories.” — Marshall Kosloff (02:00)
• “The first impact is a dramatic leap in weapon lethality—an increase of 100 to 1000x. In this case today, it's due to universal precision.” — George Dougherty (04:45)
• “We're chasing the puck again, and we're setting ourselves up to be once again surprised.” — George Dougherty (23:33)
• “Wars are not the same thing as battles.... We've had that experience in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, in Iraq...” — George Dougherty (33:45)
• “We don't have the luxury of doing this on our own pace and in our own way.” — George Dougherty (53:00)
• “It's not offense or defense, specifically, that precision robotic weapons favor. It's the side that has the initiative.” — George Dougherty (58:00)

Important Timestamps

• 03:44 – Start of discussion on the robotics/AI revolution’s military impact
• 09:16 – Parallels between WWI mechanization & Ukraine’s drone warfare
• 11:32 – “Unmanned” as an intellectual trap; the need for new conceptual frameworks
• 13:40 – Bottom-up innovation: Ukraine & non-superpower drivers
• 16:36 – The danger of over-hyped, simplistic conclusions about new tech (e.g., aircraft carriers vs. drones)
• 23:31 – Dangers of “chasing the puck”; need for strategic foresight
• 28:24 – Balancing present needs and future threats in defense policy
• 33:45 – The difference between winning battles & winning wars; civilian understanding vital
• 41:35 – Houthi case: Bottom-up democratization of technological lethality
• 46:44 – The limits of technological determinism and RMA’s lessons
• 49:58 – The true strategic question: how others will fight us
• 56:03 – Initiative as the new currency of war (offense/defense redefined)
• 62:40 – What replaces the battleship? Dissociated, swarm-based systems

Final Thoughts

George Dougherty and Marshall Kosloff call for a reframing of how policymakers, military professionals, and civilians think about the ongoing revolution in military technology. The old categories—unmanned, offense/defense, battleship/carrier—are breaking down. History teaches that when conceptual frameworks lag behind technological change, the results can be catastrophic. The U.S. risks being overtaken not just by peer competitors, but by non-state actors and other nations willing to innovate unconstrained by tradition or ethics. The future will belong to those who recognize, and shape, these changes—before others do.

Book referenced:
Beast in the Machine: How Robotics and AI Will Transform Warfare and the Future of Human Conflict by George M. Dougherty

Host recommend readings and further context included throughout the episode.