Episode Overview

Episode Title:
Steve Teles: Hard Lessons for Centrists Trying to Overcome the Mediocrity Challenge + Last Call for Niskanen Summer Institute Applications

Podcast:
The Realignment, Episode 594
Date: February 17, 2026

Main Theme:
The episode features a deep-dive conversation between host Marshall Kosloff and Steve Teles of the Niskanen Center. They explore why moderate, centrist, and technocratic movements—particularly those clustered around the "Abundance" agenda—struggle in today's anti-status quo, populist political environment. The conversation extends to diagnosing the challenges and opportunities facing such movements, analyzing political realignment, and offering practical lessons for centrists seeking relevance and power.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Challenge for Centrists in an Anti-Status Quo Era

• Marshall sets the stage: The political climate is increasingly skeptical of moderate, establishment, or technocratic approaches, especially as both left-wing and right-wing populist energies surge.
  • "In an anti status quo moment there is a real difficulty when it comes to moderate and center coded movements and ideas like Abundance in attacking and being aggressive against that status quo" — Marshall (01:22)

Steve’s Response:

• Steve recounts his previous work (“The Captured Economy”) highlighting entrenched interests and upward redistribution as a political failure.
• He distinguishes his perspective from pure economic populists—calling for a plausible economic theory grounded in classical economics, not just rhetorical anti-neoliberalism or status-bashing.
  • "Our argument was a huge amount of that inequality was being generated by politics itself..." — Steve (04:55)

2. Abundance as a Movement: Rhetoric, Performance, and Reality

• "Vibes vs. Substance":
  • Marshall relays an anecdote about people within the "Abundance industrial complex" personally driven by anti-status quo motivations, but whose public rhetoric often comes across as blandly technocratic.
    • "Abundance just seems kind of lame to me." — Danielle, via Marshall (07:15)
  • Steve agrees that the most dynamic parts of the abundance movement (e.g., YIMBYs—Yes In My Backyard, education reform) tapped genuine anger and offered clear enemies, not just technical fixes.

Notable Quote:

• "Abundance fundamentally as a consumerist movement...a consumerist movement of government. It's on the people who are not anti-government..." — Steve (09:54)

3. Coalitions, “Everything Bagel Abundance,” and the Limits of Inclusion

• Coalitional Tension:

  • There’s a risk that by trying to be maximally inclusive—bundling everything from AI to immigration to climate—the movement becomes incoherent or directionless.
  • Marshall coins “Everything Bagel Abundance” to critique this maximalism, referencing Ezra Klein’s “Everything Bagel Liberalism":
    • "You’ve added all these different toppings to the bagel to the point that you actually make the project itself less feasible..." — Marshall (16:31)

• On where AI fits: Both agree it's consequential, but warn against excessive topic-stacking.

Steve’s Synthesis:
- The unifying thread of abundance should remain material, physical progress and government functioning—not every hot issue. - "For me, the real energy... in abundance is let's go back into the physical world...improving the speed..." — Steve (23:08)

4. “Varieties of Abundance” and Factionalism As Navigational Tools

• Marshall and Steve discuss the necessity of understanding internal factions:
  • Modern politics is not just partisan, but heavily defined by intra-party factions (e.g., Democratic Socialists vs. abundance liberals, local vs. national divides).
  • Recognizing this gives policy entrepreneurs smarter strategies for coalition-building and effective governance.

Notable Quote:

• “Abundance is a thing that mixes with a bunch of other projects... the abundance thing implies a certain set of projects that are bigger than any of these one ideological layers.” — Steve (32:25)

5. Pragmatism vs. Technocracy: Abundance Must Be More Than “Making the DMV Work”

• Marshall and Steve push back against the reduction of the abundance agenda to just procedural technocracy:
  • "Abundance has to be about more than making the DMV work better." — Shoikat Chakrabarti, quoted by Marshall (34:48)

Steve emphasizes:

• The “consumer-centric” view of government should center on the needs of regular people who depend on effective public services, not just on government workers or sclerotic institutions.

6. Hard Lessons for Moderates and Centrist Differentiation

• Centrists Fail When Lacking Substance or Collective Identity

  • Steve critiques “mid” (mediocre) moderation: Modern moderates rarely differentiate in ways that signal real risk or project substance. Old-school “ed reform Democrat” stances were clear, bold ways to show seriousness.
    • "What’s missing among people who call themselves moderate now... moderation is too atomized as opposed to collective." — Steve (41:33)
  • He points out that collective, substantive projects (e.g., education reform, policing reform) provide costly signals to voters and help counter generic anti-establishment resentment.

• Performance and Policy Go Hand-in-Hand:

  • Strong movements repeatedly return to the fight and incrementally achieve real outcomes, generating energy (citing Michelle Rhee, Scott Wiener, and Randy Clarke as substantive performers).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (w/ Timestamps)

• On technocracy’s limits:

  • “There’s a technocratic seriousness... that unfortunately has infected the marketing materials... If you have your framework in mind... you would understand how to actually deliver properly.”
    — Marshall (08:34)

• On factional politics:

  • “The way to think about the variety of abundance is the abundance layer is a thing that mixes with a bunch of other projects.”
    — Steve (32:25)

• On collective action:

  • “That’s really what to me a faction is about. Right. Faction is about collective action in the interest of a large multi year governing kind of reform.”
    — Steve (59:17)

• On moderates and substance:

  • “Say what you want about Michelle Rhee. The critique of Michelle Rhee was not that Michelle Rhee didn’t stand for anything... which is, I think, the very accurate critique of a centrist.”
    — Marshall (55:04)

Key Segments & Timestamps

• 00:00 – 01:02: Opening, Niskanen Summer Institute pitch, episode framing
• 02:20 – 07:15: Steve introduces his thesis on the “captured economy” and sets up the need for plausible economic theory
• 09:41 – 13:15: YIMBYs, Ed Reform, and what makes abundance emotionally resonant
• 16:31 – 21:29: “Everything Bagel Abundance” and the incoherence danger of topical maximalism
• 21:29 – 26:31: Where does AI fit? Why focus on the material and physical infrastructure
• 29:38 – 34:25: Understanding “Varieties of Abundance” and navigating factional politics
• 34:25 – 38:46: The need to balance ideological theory (abundance as “more than the DMV”) with actionable pragmatism
• 40:07 – 46:08: Why centrism fails without tangible collective projects; old ed reform as an example
• 50:42 – 57:18: The importance of moderation with substance and the pitfalls of bland technocratic politics
• 57:18 – End: Abundance as a project—calling centrists, moderate politicians to pursue meaningful reform and visibility

Takeaways for Listeners

• Centrist, moderate, and technocratic movements lack resonance unless they embrace genuine anti-status quo energy, risky and substantive projects, and collective action.
• “Abundance” succeeds when it’s tangible—a consumer-centric movement able to make real improvements in public life—not when it’s an unfocused, technocratic or everything-for-everyone agenda.
• Factional politics and coalition-building are now indispensable tools for policy entrepreneurs and reformers; success isn’t just about party but about operating within and across dynamic, often ideological subgroups.
• Moderates and centrists must learn from high-salience reformers (e.g., Michelle Rhee, Scott Wiener, Randy Clarke): have a project, stick with it, and generate proof points—not just rhetoric.
• The recipe for overcoming "mediocrity" involves balancing pragmatism, ideological clarity, and relentless, visible commitment to meaningful reform.

For further context, listeners can check out the show notes for references to Steve’s existing writings and follow-up episodes planned to continue this conversation.