Everyone in reinsurance obsesses over the claims side of the balance sheet: what happens when things go wrong. Maurits Van Joolingen, Managing Director of Climate Scenarios & Sustainability at Ortec Finance, spends his time on the assets insurers actually hold, and whether the models pricing that risk are dangerously optimistic.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

Why the industry-standard NGFS climate scenarios might be underestimating the real risk
How nonlinear warming assumptions change the math on portfolio exposure
What a 25%-uninsurable-housing scenario means for insurers' long-term business models
Why divesting from high-emission sectors might be the wrong move for asset owners
How leading insurers are moving from "raising awareness" to actually changing capital allocation

EPISODE LINKS:

Maurits's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mauritsvanjoolingen/

Ortec Finance: https://www.ortecfinance.com/

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OUTLINE & TIMESTAMPS:00:00 - Intro03:44 - The Two Ways Insurers Model Climate Risk06:10 - Why Ortec Bets on Nonlinear Climate Risk08:00 - From Awareness to Decisions: Where Scenarios Fell Short08:57 - Why 25% of Housing Could Become Uninsurable by 205010:47 - Why You Can't Just Pull Out of a High-Risk Region11:45 - Should Governments Backstop Climate Risk for Insurers?13:15 - What Should Risk Officers Be Doing Right Now?15:37 - Are Clients Waking Up to the NGFS's Blind Spots?16:51 - Regulators, Governance, and the Case for Scenario Planning18:08 - What's Next: Blending Top-Down and Bottom-Up Models20:44 - Closing Thoughts