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Foreign welcome. It's episode number 54 of the podcast 54. A great number by the way. Some of the best defensive players, NFL history, war number 54. Perhaps none better than Randy White, legendary Dallas Cowboy turned BBQ pit master and little non rental housing trivia for you. Randy and I share something in common, something very little. But we both graduated from the University of Maryland and then moved to Dallas. So the only real difference is he was a nine time All Pro super bowl champion who made the hall of Fame. Just a few details. All right, so enough of that. Let's get into construction today. Is it time to build again? We're going to lay out the case for it today. We got the latest data on apartment supply starts and future completions. We'll also talk about an interesting wrinkle in today's market that could, could, and I hope this isn't hyperbole, but I think it could permanently shift the composition of apartment development. Specifically, I mean this larger developers are taking a larger share of the starts. They're not doing more, but taking a larger share because smaller players that dominate most of the market in terms of starts are doing less. So is today's environment of high rates, high cost of capital, soft rents, is that making it harder for smaller developers to stay active? I mean it. Honestly it's hard for everyone, even for large developers. But, but I think it's especially hard for those groups who do one or two projects a year, which is the majority of the market, and therefore don't have the efficiency of scale to squeeze enough juice out of the lemon to make deals. Pencil out. In today's environment, historically something like 3/4 of all apartment starts come from small local developers. So are we at a moment like we saw the home builders go through during and after the great financial crisis, where bigger players gained market share, Survival of the fittest. Well, I don't want to overstate this of course, because there's always going to be exceptions and some of you probably listening, you're probably doing some great things as smaller developers to stay active as well. There's going to be exceptions. There's very smart, very good, innovative smaller developers out there who may have access to steady sources of capital, but I think that's going to be more the exception than the rule. I think we'll see larger developers continue to gain more market share. I'll show you some data on this in a moment. Not necessarily again, a lot more projects, but a larger share of a smaller number of total apartment and build to rent starts. And this is going to tie in today's interview as well. We've got a special one today. It is our first ever interview on the rent roll in front of a live audience. And this was really cool. A lot of fun, a lot of energy. At an event with JPI at the Hotel drover in the Fort Worth stockyards, I sat down with JPI's CEO, CIO, CFO and the Chief of construction and design and we talked about this topic. Specifically, what's JPI doing to drive efficiencies in an industry construction that has notoriously seen very little efficiency gains over the last few decades? I'm sure all of you have seen those stats and stories about how construction has been the one industry to see very little in terms of productivity and efficiency gains in recent decades or you and but now, you know, what are we seeing? It's starting to change. So what are groups like JPI doing to drive efficiencies in construction using new technologies to reduce the timelines, reduced waste and therefore reduce costs and make deals pencil out that might otherwise not pencil out in today's environment. So that's going to be fun. So stick with us for that conversation. And also just a really quick programming note. Next week we'll be doing our Q3 apartment market update and Outlook. Got the latest and greatest data available. And we'll give some thoughts on what it all means for that rebound that everyone is anxiously awaiting. All right, so let's before we get into it, let's give a shout out to our sponsors. First, a shout out to Madera Residential, a leading apartment owner and operator in Texas expanding into the Southeast as well. Check them out. Maderaresidential.com and also, of course, to JPI. JPI was gracious enough to host and record the live taping of the interview this week at the Fort Worth Stockyards. And JPI is of course a leading developer with a stated purpose to transform building, enhance communities and improve lives. All right, as always, we kick it off with here's a chart and we got a few of them for you. So we're going to talk about the case for construction and just to keep it simple, we're not going to assume any kind of big rate cut and let's not also assume a material change in construction costs. In fact, this is an interesting stat for you. The most recent NMHC survey of builders and developers just came out a couple weeks ago. It shows less than 30% of builders and developers expect construction costs to rise in the next three to six months. It's less than 30%. And it's just about the same percent that expect costs to decrease while the balance say costs should be unchanged. So it's pretty crazy given the narrative on tariffs and, and labor. And we'll dive into that topic more in today's interview. We're going to ask JPI's head of construction about that. And we've talked about this with other developers on this podcast as well. So if you're a longtime listener, you probably know where that one's going. But it's interesting because it, it, the story hasn't changed and that gets us. Okay, so it's, it's, it's not so much about maybe expect. Well, let's, again, let's, let's assume that rates aren't materially changed. Maybe you get a couple more cuts. It's not going to materially change the math. We're not going to materially change the math through construction costs. And that takes us to fundamentals, to noi, to rents. And that's important because according to that same NMHC survey of research, NMHC survey of builders and developers, excuse me, the number one reason, by far the number one reason for construction delays is project is not economically feasible. So if a project is not economically feasible, that means the developer doesn't think there's enough demand for apartments at the rent levels needed to justify the market cost. The market's not going to bear that. Even if people are going to afford it, they have other options that are comparable at a, better at a, at a, at a lower rent than what a new project needs to pencil out. 83% of developers said this was the number one hurdle to construction and other 61% blamed, quote, economic uncertainty, which is of course a related problem. So here's an illustration of this issue. Let's look at effective rents for apartments built in this cycle since 2020. In the 2000 and 20s, the average rent for an apartment unit built in this decade is nationally is $2,236 as of September 2025. That's basically where it was three years ago. If you can see the chart in my screen, if those of you who are looking at the video version, you can see it's been a pretty straight line these last three years. In a lot of markets, your brand. What this really means is that in a lot of markets your average brand new lease up is commanding about the same rents as a brand new property did three years ago back in 2022. And yet we talked about construction costs earlier. Obviously construction costs are up since 2022. So something being built today was likely more expensive than something built three years ago. And so that creates some tough math. And, and, and so it's, it's tough to build when, you know, rents haven't moved in three years, but costs have. So just to quickly recap, this is kind of an illustration of why this is so tough. A couple months ago when I covered the last round of REITs earnings calls, we touched on this topic. MAA, the largest REIT by unit count. They said development returns would have to improve 10 to 20% for more projects to be feasible for most merchant builders. Now of course, MAA is not a merchant builder, they're a build to own. So they have different math. It's a little bit easier for them. Lower cost of capital, but, but most developers are merchant builders with a higher cost of capital. And by the way, MAA is still building. And part of why they're building in Avalon Bay and Camden and others is because they see a favorable moment. They're building because they see how little is down the pike and they have the scale, the capital to make deals work that might not work for your average merchant builder, particularly a smaller one. Now of course, that's everyone's thesis, right? There's going to be less to complete in 26 and 27, maybe 28 as well. So it makes sense to deliver at a time when others can't. And REITs like those guys, they're putting their money where their mouth is. But why build instead of buy? And we'll talk about this in our review today too, but I'll say it quickly because on paper it may seem cheaper to buy than build. In reality, it's not that easy to do so, at least not on any scale. For newer, vintage, well located apartments, that's the stuff everybody wants to buy, particularly institutional capital. That's what they want. So there's a lot of competition for that. Cap rates back in the fours, as I'm sure everybody knows, and not a lot of product that even hits the market. So if you're going to deploy real capital into newer, vintage, well located apartments, it's going to be tough to buy to buy your way into that, unless you're buying a sizable portfolio of assets and then all of a sudden, you know, development might look better. So that gets us to a point I made in the opening then. This is an environment where it's just going to be tougher for smaller developers to compete. And by the way, I'm rooting for them. You know, I Want. I like that we have a very broad, diverse market. But it's tough. And it's been tough. It's been tough. It was tough even last year for smaller developers to keep active. So here's some key context for you to illustrate how smaller developers play such a crucial role in apartment construction. Let me give you some numbers. Last year in the US we completed 2,801 market rate apartment projects across the country. Those 200 projects came from 1,536 different developers. That means most developers are doing one project a year, maybe one or two. And on that note, related stat. Here's a good one from NMHC's top developers list. Largest Most active developers traditionally the top 25 developers, they start about 20 to 25% of all new multifamily units nationally. But last year in 2024, the NMHC top 25 largest developers represented 32% of all US department starts. And that was the highest on record, which goes back more than 10 years. And I think that share is going to grow further here in 2025 before it's all said and done. So again, that doesn't mean large developers are building more. Most are actually building less than they did at the peak, but their market share is up because most smaller developers are doing even less. A lot of them are sidelined. Okay, so what does this all translate to? Okay, starts are the lowest level since 2013, back when we were rebounding out of the GFC. But it does appear the starts have bottomed and likely are leveling off around 250,000 units per year on an annualized basis. So we've been around that mark for most of this year, around that 250 number. And that may sound like a decent total on the surface, but just for some comparison, again, it's the lowest since 2013, but also the peak in 2022 was 600,000, so we're less than half of that today. So in terms of completions, we had 586,000 last year. This year we have an estimated 515,000 scheduled to complete. That's a big drop off from 2024, but you know, 415 is still a lot. Aside from 2024, it's the biggest year since the mid-1980s. You want to talk about this more next week on the Q3 update and outlook, But I think that's why a lot of folks got ahead of their skis a little bit when they're thinking 2025 would be a big supply slowdown. Yeah, it's down a Lot, but the total number is still a lot. Plus you have all the 2024 completions. They're still working through lease up. So the real slowdown starts in 2026. We have about 300,000 scheduled to complete. And then we could see less than 250 in 2027 and maybe even 2028 at this point. Last thing before we move on, let's look at the supply slowdown by market. When we when do we get below not the peak supply, but below pre Covid normal supply levels. And so I looked at scheduled completions compared to what was the average prior to Covid? Well, we already, we're already there in a bunch of spots. We're back below pre Covid levels in a bunch of spots. And most chronic, most of these are chronically low supply markets. But there are some other key spots in this group like Houston, Seattle, West Palm Beach, Washington, D.C. kansas City, Chicago, as well as San Francisco and Orange County. And then by year end, Nashville is going to be in that group too, particularly suburban Nashville. Still a lot go through downtown. Indianapolis will be in that camp as well. Then Dallas after the calendar turns to 2026. In the beginning of the year, they're going to be at supply levels below pre Covid average. And in the by the first half of 2026, we're going to see numbers drop below those marks in Austin, Salt Lake, Jacksonville, Denver, San Antonio, Orlando, Atlanta and Boston as some examples. Then in the second half of the year, we'll get there in Raleigh and Charlotte, Columbus and Philly. And some are going to take longer than that, maybe 2027 before supply drops below pre Covid norms. And that includes Phoenix, Fort Worth, Tampa, Richmond, Miami, Northern New Jersey, among others. And that's going to take us right into today's rental housing trivia. All right, so just talking about scheduled completions and how much is left versus the pre pandemic norm. So that, that, that's going to be what today's question is about. Current construction is below pre pandemic norms in most major MSAs, but there are some exceptions. So which MSA still tops its pre Covid average by the highest margin in terms of total number of apartments under construction, Is it A, Austin, B, Columbus, C, Phoenix, D, Raleigh or E, Tampa? So give that some thought and we will answer it in a moment. But first in the news. All right, in the news we cover some headlines touching on topics related to SFR and multifamily and other topics in rental housing and renters. So this first one here's A good study to support apartment development, which of course is our topic today. Let me read from this. It says, it's from, from Pew, Pew Research and Pew Charitable Trust that says modern multifamily buildings provide the most fire protection. Rate of death is in Most modern apartments is 1:6 the rate of single family homes and in older apartment buildings. All right, so it says. A large body of research has demonstrated that apartment buildings, other types of multifamily housing can provide many benefits to a community, especially in built in high demand areas where housing is badly needed. Ultimately, housing can boost economic opportunity and foster growth while improving affordability by increasing the availability of housing, your job, stores and transportation. It can reduce commute times, traffic, energy consumption and water usage. The United States is experiencing both a nationwide housing shortage and a record levels of homelessness. More multifamily housing could help address both problems. So there you go. Good. Pretty good research. Pew's been out some putting out some good stuff of late on housing and this is another good one. Next one comes from Bloomberg's City Lab division and the headline is with rental registries, cities seek to close the data gap with landlords. Cities like Pittsburgh, Oakland and Rochester have passed ordinances to track property ownership and mandate inspections for rental housing. But landlords often resist. So you notice those cities, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Rochester, they're not exactly institutional markets. They're heavily mom and pop. And that's going to be important as we dive into this because let me read more things in the article. It says supporters of rental registries, including city officials and tenant groups, see them as a necessary tool to address critical information gaps and protect public health. With many US Cities having already enacted similar programs to proactively enforce housing codes and track landlord compliance. So I want you to think about this for a moment. You know, public rental registry. You know, I'm sure it sounds good like a lot of ideas, but think about who this impacts the most. It's really not going to be institutional groups or even sub institutional groups with, you know, on site property management teams and have, you know, a company website and a property website. You know those groups, they have contact information very easily accessible. A public registry is far more problematic for small non pop landlords who dominate some of the cities we just talked about because they're providing their personal contact info and address. So you know, let me state the obvious. Obviously having units in disrepair is good for no one, but contact info should be on a lease and if their issue is unresolved and there's a code violation reported, it shouldn't be that hard to track them down. There's still public records on who owns these properties. All right, next headline comes to the Wall Street Journal. It says rise of accidental landlords is bad news for investors who bet on rentals. Problems in the for sale housing market are starting to infect the rental business. All right, so I've been talking about this for a while. Glad the Wall Street Journal, I think the New York Times picked out a bunch of groups, a bunch of media outlets picked up on this. So some report came out of batch data on this topic. And I'll tell you what, I'm glad to see we're finally starting to acknowledge that a weak home sale market does not equal a boom in the rental market, even sfr. Okay. But also as you read in this article, what's really interesting is that no one wants to say it, but I'm going to go ahead and say it. It's, it's what it's showing us that's not institutional investors gobbling up homes off the MLS and keeping home prices high. It's more likely to be would be individual sellers choosing to hold on to homes as rental. So as a rental. So right now it's a bad market to sell if you don't have to. In most markets, if you do need to move, you have cash and the debt to income ratio to buy another house, it might make sense to hold on to your old home as an investment. And those quote, accidental landlords are far less concerned about yield on cost or operating margins as a sideline. Larger investor would be and they're more concerned maybe with long term value appreciation and just the perception that they're not selling at a good time, they want to wait. But that gets us to that point here is that individuals with families, individuals and families with one to five homes, they have 90% market share in SFR according to our data from batch data that was reported by Resi Club last week. And, and then the institutional investors, they have a, according to batch data, they have a, wait for it, 1.6% of the market. And as you know, there's no other industry in the planet where there is so much angst about 1.6% market share. 1.6% does not move the market. Okay. Anyway, the accidental landlord topic is an interesting one to watch. I'm sure a lot of them are going to find out that, you know, quote, passive income isn't always so passive when it comes to owning and managing a single family rental. All right, let's jump over to Los Angeles and this is the LA Times, it says almost no one is building new apartments in Los Angeles. Here's why. All right, interesting story. You know, we've been talking about this on the Ren Roll for you know, I think almost a year now. And obviously I'm not the only one. It's not a secret. And so I don't the reads, I'm talking about the earnings calls. I realize I said I'm giving myself too much credit. This is a widely known issue. Right. So let me read some of this article. It says developers say they can't raise the money they need to build as many of their to build as many of their biggest backers think pension funds, insurance companies, other institutions looking for long term investments don't want to park their money in LA because the rapidly changing rules make it impossible to predict profits. The year since COVID 19 have demonstrated how tangled regulation of the industry can get in la. And so they're taking their money to other cities. And there's a quote from a developer who says LA has been redlined by the majority of the investment community. And I've said it before, I'll say it again, you know it's, it's great to see a growing movement supporting more development, making easier to build. We've seen this in California with SQL form and some other things are doing there. Those are all, all positives but we can't just celebrate investors and they build housing and then demonize them once the construction completes and they start operating the housing. That does not work. If you can't execute a business plan, you can't build housing. And you know, right after this article came out is of right on cue there's another news article that came out about a rent strike in some properties owned by Equity Residential. And I read through the article and guess where it starts. Where, where is it starting from Los Angeles. And of course you know, ironically we know Equity Residential, you know they operate class A plus properties catering to renters with very high incomes. Not likely affordability issues there. But there's a group withholding rent, trying to win some various building improvements and hey, why not? You know, rent payment seems to be essentially optional in L A and so stuff like that is why no one wants to invest know nine figures to build new apartments in the city of Los Angeles. Now other parts of SoCal I think still could be very solid. The city of LA and parts of the county of la, you know they, they, they, they, they don't seem to really want to build housing anyway. Hopefully LA finds its way and with some common sense reforms, but not hold my breath. All right, speaking of reforms, here's an article from Biz now in Washington D.C. as our last headline of the week, it says D.C. housing Industry Awaits Swell of Investment with TOPA Reform. And you know, so, okay, so TOPA reform I talked about, I've talked about this a few times, most recently related to the Avalon Bay sale of I believe was four properties in the District of Columbia. And TOPA is, gives the residents of the property a first right of refusal to purchase it. So you get a, you get a binding offer from a, from a potential buyer. Now you got to give the residents a chance to raise 100 million plus dollars as if they have any chance to do so, but in reality ends up being a stall tactic. And so there's been a lot of push to reform that. And so this article is anticipating that reform. Now this DC Is passed this reform, but is it nearly enough to bring a swell of investment into DC Apartments? You know, I know my friends in DC are hoping that's the case and maybe they're right, maybe I'm wrong, but I think this reform was really watered down by the city council. Okay, so the big reform, if you want to call it that, is a 15 year exemption for new construction. But here's the problem with that. Investors can read a calendar. So the thing to remember is that every buyer needs an exit plan. So a 15 year exemption, that's going to help the merchant builder building the property, but it doesn't really help their buyer because the first buyer can be fine with a 15 year window, but when it's time to sell, the next buyer may find that problematic because now they're likely inheriting that risk. And there have been some real horror stories of long delays, deals essentially held hostage through TOPA rules. And again, in most cases the residents have no chance of buying the property, but they're using it as leverage to gain concessions on rents or amenities or building upgrades from the next buyer. And that could take months and months and months and, and delay a deal. And that's, that's very complicated. I mean that, that, that's, that's a significant challenge for investors. You want to have some certainty around the close. So we'll see. But I just have a hard time seeing how a 15 year exemption could invite a quote, swell unquote of investment. Probably some, I'm sure some will, but a swell, I think that's a stretch. All right, let's get back to this week's rental housing trivia question. The question was current construction is below pre pandemic norms and most major MSAs. But there are some exceptions which MSA still tops its pre Covid average by the highest margin. And I gave you five choices. Austin, Columbus, Phoenix, Raleigh or Tampa. And the answer is Phoenix. Construction in Phoenix at the end of Q3 was still 12,000 units above its pre Covid average as measured by the average construction total between 2017 and 2019. So that's a big margin. Now, I guess in fairness to Phoenix, it didn't. Phoenix didn't build a ton prior to Covid, so that, you know, that helped spur the big, big the big initial boom we saw in rents in the early Covid recovery period and then construction really ramped up after that and rents tapered back quickly. So still a ton to work through today. More than 27,000 units in total under construction. And it's especially concentrated some of the western submarkets, places like Goodyear and Avondale, etc. All right, next up, it's time for today's interview sponsored by funnel, the AI and CRM software trusted by four of the six major REITs and many more leading operators like BH and Cortland. To learn how Funnel can help your property centralize operations and automate everyday tasks, visit funnelle leasing.com okay, so today we have a special treat. I mentioned this earlier, at least specially to me. Anyway, hopefully it is to you as well. It's our first podcast recording in front of a live audience. We had the opportunity to record a group interview with JPI's leadership team CEO Peyton Mays, CFO/CIO Molly Fadoul, and Chief Construction Design Officer Kylie Harvey. And we just record this event. We just recorded this, this interview, I should say, at an event at the Hotel Drover in Fort Worth inside their barn hall, which is quite the venue, if not seen it right at the Fort Worth stockyards. Strong Texas feel to it. You know, it's fun. People always come to, you know, Texas event, been here and they see Dallas like this. Looks nothing like what I expected, like Dallas, the TV show for those who are of that generation. And you get to the forward stockyards and that's kind of what you were expecting. And this is a really nice hotel that maintains that Texas traditional feel. So, you know, anyway, usually these interviews are online or a tiny little studio by ourselves. So having a live audience, that was a treat. Lots of energy in the room. So big thank you to everyone who participated and to the JPI team for inviting me to record there at the investor event. Had a lot of fun doing this live and something I hope we can replicate in the future at other venues. So anyway, we're going to talk to Peyton, Molly and Kylie about JPI strategy, the case for new construction, expansion into new markets, and also about a big push to use technology and innovation to drive efficiencies needed to get deals to pencil out. And I'm sure other large developers may be able to drive efficiency of scale too. But when you hear some of the things that JPI is talking about, and again, I'm sure there's always exceptions, there's always going to be exceptions. But I was really left with, and I usually think about this as well, is if 75% of starts come from small developers doing one or two projects a year, how can those smaller groups keep up with that? The type of things that you're going to hear about today and I, by the way, I hope they do. I'm not rooting against you for those of you there, but I think it's going to be tough. So we got to find more ways to keep it going. So we'll see. Anyway, without further ado, let's jump in. Here we go to the Fort Worth Stockyards for today's interview. All right, so ladies and gentlemen, we.
