Podcast Summary: The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons

Episode 59: Dave Feldman | 5 Takeaways From Q3 '25 SFR REIT Calls + A Conversation With Progress Residential's CEO
Date: November 13, 2025
Host: Jay Parsons
Guest: Dave Feldman (CEO, Progress Residential)

Overview

This episode of The Rent Roll is a comprehensive exploration of the U.S. single-family rental (SFR) sector, anchored on five main takeaways from Q3 2025 SFR REIT earnings calls. Host Jay Parsons analyzes current trends in SFR, draws parallels with multifamily/apartment REIT experiences, and interviews Dave Feldman, CEO of Progress Residential (the nation's largest SFR owner). Notable topics are market fundamentals, renter health, acquisition strategy, stock buybacks, policy headwinds, and persistent myths about SFR investing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

I. 5 Takeaways From Q3 '25 SFR REIT Earnings Calls

(Main Segment: 00:03–31:30)

1. SFR Fundamentals Remain Solid but Some Signs of Softening

• Both major SFR REITs, AMH & Invitation Homes, described Q3 as "solid," mirroring apartment REITs’ experience.
• Occupancy:
  • AMH: 95.9%
  • Invitation: 96.5%
• Rent Growth:
  • AMH new leases: +2.5%, renewals: +4%, blended: +3.6%
  • Invitation new leases: slightly negative, renewals up 4.5%, blended: +3%
• New supply, including “accidental landlords” (owners turning homes into rentals), is pressuring rents.
• Seasonal patterns: September was slower than usual; AMH saw a pickup in October, Invitation viewed this as normal seasonality.
• Builds for Rent (BTR) leasing velocity is outperforming traditional SFR, especially in Invitation’s portfolio.
• Quote:

  “Solid is a good word... The rental housing market just has a higher floor. It’s more steady than the homebuyer market.”
  — Jay Parsons (04:18)

2. SFR Renters Are in Financially Healthy Shape

• Little evidence of renter financial stress—bad debt is down, renewals strong, retention high.
• Current SFR renters generally have high credit and income (median incomes for new AMH residents: $150k+; 5x rent multiples).
• Weakness seen, if any, is on the new lease side due to slowing job growth and consumer confidence.
• Most SFR and apartment REITs serve middle/upper income; if cracks appear, they’re expected at the affordable/Class C end.
• Quotes:

  “Our customer is very healthy from a financial standpoint.”
  — Tim Loebner, Invitation Homes (08:45)
  “Credit scores are not suffering... Residents are coming in with still high incomes.”
  — Lincoln Palmer, AMH (09:23)

3. REITs Keep Building but Aren’t Buying Existing Housing at Current Prices

• SFR REITs remain net sellers or at best, very selective buyers, due to wide bid-ask spreads and high prices.
• AMH expects to deliver 2,300 new BTR homes in 2025, funded largely through selling older homes to owner-occupiers.
• Invitation is buying new homes from builders at up to 20% discounts; acquisitions from other SFR portfolios are rare as sellers want "end user" pricing.
• Scale buyers (institutional SFR) are more active in BTR/new construction than in competing with homeowners.
• Quote:

  “Even the REITs are basically priced out of the market right now for existing single family homes.”
  — Jay Parsons (14:53)

4. REITs Looking at Stock Buybacks Amid Discounted Valuations

• Both AMH and Invitation are considering or actively pursuing stock buybacks, as public stocks trade at significant discounts to net asset value (NAV).
• Invitation’s board authorized a $500M buyback program to capitalize on the public-private pricing gap.
• AMH’s CFO acknowledged capital allocation concerns: buybacks could limit capacity for future growth if leveraged too much.
• Quotes:

  “We certainly want this to be one of the tools in our tool belt if the stock price is going to stay in these ranges…”
  — Dallas Tanner, Invitation Homes (19:23)

5. Cautious Optimism for 2026

• REITs expect lease expiration management (fewer leases expiring in winter) to help maintain occupancy and pricing power for the 2026 spring leasing season.
• Ongoing supply (both trackable BTR and harder-to-measure “shadow” landlord supply) is a wild card in rent growth forecasts.
• Leaders agree that a healthier home purchase market is ultimately good for both SFR and apartments, as it resets the move-out/move-in dynamic.
• Quote:

  “Candidly, we’d like to see more homes selling on the market... That transaction volume is a good proxy for rent growth going forward.”
  — Dallas Tanner, Invitation Homes (23:13)

II. Apartment REITs and Multifamily Market Updates

(Segment: 24:00–27:40)

• Jay highlights Camden’s late earnings call, noting similar themes: strong investor demand for multifamily, but high supply in the Sun Belt is slowing transactions.
• Buyers and sellers are both bullish, so little incentive for sellers to accept discounted offers.
• Camden recently sold three older properties (Houston, Dallas), using proceeds for stock buybacks.
• Quote:

  “If you look at the amount of dry powder ... multifamily absolutely leads all asset classes. Everybody’s looking for assets. The challenge is, there’s not a lot out there to buy.”
  — Rick Campo, Camden CEO (25:57)

III. Policy Context: New York City Election and Rent Control

(Segment: 27:40–32:47)

• Jay provides historical context on New York’s rent control, noting 100+ years of rent regulation with little resolution.
• Points to challenges with both regulation (various forms of rent control) and public housing (NYCHA’s $80B in deferred maintenance).
• Notes that while voters passed pro-development "YIMBY" measures, investors remain hesitant due to operating environment risk.
• Quote:

  “New York’s rental housing market hasn’t even resembled a free market in at least 80 years… More than a century of rent regulation.”
  — Jay Parsons (29:44)

IV. Industry News & Trivia

(Segment: 32:09–32:47)

• Sonder, a major short-term apartment rental platform, files for bankruptcy.
• Blackstone faces losses on senior housing investments, points to operational complexity and pandemic impact.
• Trivia: Among non-coastal metros, Salt Lake City has the largest own-vs.-rent monthly cost gap for SFR ($1,670/mo).

V. Interview: Dave Feldman, CEO, Progress Residential

(Segment: 32:48–62:55)

Dave Feldman’s Background & SFR Origin Story

• Grew up in Southern California, background in business/entrepreneurship + real estate investment banking (Marcus & Millichap).
• Entered SFR via a startup with Apollo, then joined Progress Residential (owned by Pretium) in 2014.

Persistent SFR Myths & Public Perception

• Feldman frequently encounters myths in both social and professional settings (e.g., SFRs push out homebuyers or drive rent increases).

• Emphasizes SFRs address supply and affordability gaps, especially given housing underbuilding (estimated 3–5 million unit shortage).

• SFRs do not "squeeze" buyers—most purchases come from mom-and-pop landlords or new builds.

• Rent inflation and volatility are generally mitigated by operators due to high turnover costs.

  Memorable Moments:

  “The myth-busting of squeezing homebuyers out or raising rents, the facts don’t line up… turnover is not good for anybody.”
  — Dave Feldman (39:40)

  “If you have 100,000 homes and there’s an issue with one... that’s 0.001% of your portfolio. But that doesn’t matter—like, that’s the story.”
  — Jay Parsons (46:51)

Social Impact of SFR: Access to High-Opportunity Zones

• Academic research (Raj Chetty) shows SFR access in “high opportunity” neighborhoods improves long-term outcomes for residents’ children.
• Progress intentionally invests in locations that offer good schools, safety, proximity to jobs.
• Feldman: “Can I live there and would I choose to raise my children there?” is the baseline.

Policy Environment: Regulation, Public-Private Partnerships

• Feldman sees increased engagement with policymakers as vital.
• Progress manages 3,000+ Housing Choice Voucher homes, seeks to deepen public-private partnerships and be “part of the solution.”

Operational & Economic Benefits of Scale in SFR

• Scale allows for in-house maintenance, lower costs, better and faster resident service.

• Being subscale, especially across multiple metros, is both expensive and less efficient.

• Progress’s density enables better logistics and customer experience.

  Notable Quote:

  “It’s okay for both [customers and investors] to win… both can be true for these stakeholders.”
  — Dave Feldman (54:26)

SFR Resident Demographics

• Wide mix: singles, families with children (40–50%+), empty nesters.
• Many residents have pets and “a whole lot of stuff.”
• Income-to-rent typically 4–5x; high levels of financial health.

Move-outs to Home Purchase Remain Low

• Historically 22–24% of move-outs to homebuying; now closer to 14–16% post-rate increases—shows homebuying not the main “threat” to SFR occupancy.

Market Dynamics: Leasing, Retention, Supply

• Progress focuses on resident retention, building occupancy.
• Market “softness” in Texas, Florida, West is driven by oversupply—especially new multifamily and BTR deliveries—not weak demand.
• Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Georgia show more leasing strength.

SFR & Homebuyer Market Interdependence

• Both Jay and Dave agree: SFR does better when the for-sale homebuying market is healthy.

• Confidence, jobs, and wage growth are “rising tide lifts all boats” factors.

  Memorable Quotes:

  “Rising tide lifts all boats… If they have jobs and wages are growing… that's good for the rental market, that’s good for the for-sale market.”
  — Dave Feldman (61:56)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Solid is a good word… The rental housing market just has a higher floor. It’s more steady than the homebuyer market.” (Jay Parsons, 04:18)
• “Our customer is very healthy from a financial standpoint.” (Tim Loebner, Invitation Homes, 08:45)
• “Credit scores are not suffering... Residents are coming in with still high incomes.” (Lincoln Palmer, AMH, 09:23)
• “We certainly want this to be one of the tools in our tool belt if the stock price is going to stay in these ranges…” (Dallas Tanner, Invitation, 19:23)
• “Even the REITs are basically priced out of the market right now for existing single family homes.” (Jay Parsons, 14:53)
• “The myth busting of squeezing home buyers out or raising rents, the facts don’t line up… turnover is not good for anybody.” (Dave Feldman, 39:40)
• “Can I live there and would I choose to live there to raise my children?” (Dave Feldman, 42:47)
• “It’s okay for both [customers and investors] to win.” (Dave Feldman, 54:26)
• “Rising tide lifts all boats… If they have jobs and wages are growing… that’s good for the rental market, that’s good for the for-sale market.” (Dave Feldman, 61:56)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:03–01:00 – Episode intro, SFR overview, preview of main topics
• 01:00–31:30 – 5 Key Takeaways from SFR REIT Q3 2025 Calls [details broken out above]
• 24:00–27:40 – Apartment REIT/Multifamily market (Camden)
• 27:40–32:47 – New York City policy & historical context
• 32:09–32:47 – Headlines: Sonder bankruptcy, Blackstone senior housing, trivia
• 32:48–62:55 – Feature Interview: Dave Feldman, Progress Residential

Tone and Language

Jay Parsons and Dave Feldman maintain a conversational, data-driven, and myth-busting tone throughout. Parsons is direct, sharp, and injects humor (“social calculus in my head… doing like the social calculus in my head”), while Feldman is earnest and passionate about the social impact of SFR and its misunderstood role.

Summary Takeaways

Single-family rental sector remains resilient but faces short-term supply and valuation headwinds. SFR REITs are focusing on retention, operational efficiency, and cautious growth through new construction and BTR, and not aggressing into home purchases. The perception-vs-reality gap in media and policy continues, with market leaders advocating for evidence-based understanding and public-private solutions. SFRs serve a financially healthy renter base, play a pivotal social role, and benefit from healthy owner-occupier markets.

Useful for industry operators, investors, policymakers, and renters interested in the evolving U.S. housing ecosystem.