Transcript
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Welcome.
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It's episode number 62 of the Rent Roll, your podcast on all things rental housing, apartments, BTR and SFR coming to you this week from the road in Florida here for some events in Orlando and Tampa with some great folks in the Sunshine State. I have had a blast. But thankfully I'll be grounded home for the next few weeks and over the holidays before we ramp it back up again over the New year after the new year, I should say so It's a, a crazy time of year. I know many of you are feeling that as well. That three week blitz between Thanksgiving and Christmas where we all try to wrap up everything for this calendar year and prep for the next year to come. One person our guest today is a person who has a big change coming on January 1st, Tony Eubanks. She started in the multifamily business back.
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In the in the day as an.
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Apartment renter, relocating from Illinois to Texas and needing some work, took a job leasing for her property manager. So started off leasing on site and what a story it's been. She later joined greystar and which obviously is the nation's largest property manager. And come January 1st, she'll take over as Greystar's head of US property management, overseeing a portfolio of nearly 1 million units nationally. So what a great story she has. And we'll dive into her story today and also pick her brain on trends and priorities in the property management space. Obviously a lot going on and we'll get her take on where the industry is growing. So that's going to be a fun conversation. And as always, we'll catch you up on the latest data and headlines impacting the rental housing space as well. So buckle in, let's get rolling before we do big thanks to our sponsors. Thank you to jpi, a leading apartment developer with a state of purpose to transform, building, enhance communities and improve lives. By the way, JPI was also the first employer for our guest today, Tony Eubank. So you'll hear her her talking about her early days at jpi. And also a big thank you to Madera Residential leading apartment owner and operator in Texas. Check them out@maderaresidential.com all right, so as always, kick it off with here's a chart. And this week's chart comes from the U.S. census, by the way. Thankfully the government shutdown's over so we're getting data again. That's a good thing. But this chart is multifamily rental vacancy going back to when the census start collecting vacancy data back in 1968. So before I share this. I'm gonna give you some context. Here's why I'm talking about this. I saw an article in CNBC Week and some of you shared it with me asking for my take. But so here it is. You know, the headline said that apartment vacancy has jumped to, quote, record highs, so. Record highs. Well, if you read deep enough into the article past the headline, you read that the data comes from apartment List. And, you know, as the for with the free data sources, I think apartment list actually does a solid job, but their data goes back to 2017, so that's less than a decade for those of you counting from home, eight years. So if we are grading on a weirdly skewed curve, then yeah, sure, let's call Vacancy a record high. And obviously I'm a data nerd for these things. So, you know, these type of things irk me probably more than they should. But in my mind, there's only two data sets I'd rely on for trends going back more than 10 years. One is the census, which obviously has its flaws, but it goes back to 1968 and it is directionally useful, even if it's different. And the other is the axiometrics, real page data. Of course, for more contemporary data, we do have a lot more viable options today, like costar, Yardi, et cetera, but they are, you know, relatively speaking, newer entrants into the apartment space. So, anyway, both RealPage and the Census show vacancy topping out in 2009 during the Great financial crisis in the real page data. Vacancy today is still about 300 basis points better than it was in 2009. And it's even a wider gap in the census data. And so those of you can see the screen, you can see this chart from the Census. The Census shows Vacancy topping out at 13.1% back in 2009 during the GFC. By comparison, the most recent reading shows vacancy at 8.9%. Now, in fairness, the census data is a bit stale most recently as of Q2 of this year, and I'm sure it's gone up since then, but there's no way it jumped by 430bips since then, which is what it would take to surpass 2009's record high. So come on now, let's not be throwing around the term record high vacancy if your data does even go back to the last major downturn. Of course, more broadly, there's a lot of truth to what CNBC is reporting from the apartment list. Data Vacancy is up primarily thanks to largest supply wave in a half century. Rents are cooling as well. We've talked about that a lot on this program. But 2025 is nothing like 2009, nothing like that at all. I've made this point before. Remember, unemployment was more than double today's rate back in 2009. It was around 10% plus. So now if we hit a real recession, then, yeah, maybe we could challenge those records from 2009, especially if a recession hits prior to all that supply leasing up. But we're not close to that at this moment. All right. Oh, one more quick point here. If we look at a same store measure of occupancy using REIT data compiled by John Burns, which, which most impactfully would exclude newly built units in lease up, which obviously are going to pull down the overall occupancy rate. So if we look at that same store measure of occupancy from the REITs, this idea of record high vacancy is even more absurd. As you see in this chart, they show vacancy rates collectively of around 4%, which is certainly up from what it was in 2122, but still a very healthy number historically and better than the highs they saw in 2020 during the pandemic. And we've talked about this a lot in our REIT recaps, how the industry, including the REITs, continue to prioritize occupancy over rent. And so I'm just not buying the narrative that vacancy is at a record high, if that wasn't already obvious. All right, next up, rental housing trivia.
