Episode Summary: The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons
EP#70: Jeff Weidell | 5 Takeaways From NMHC Annual Meeting
Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Jay Parsons (A)
Guest: Jeff Weidell (C), CEO of Northmarq
Overview
In episode 70 of The Rent Roll, Jay Parsons returns from the NMHC (National Multifamily Housing Council) Annual Meeting in Las Vegas, sharing his top five takeaways from the premier event in the apartment sector. The episode also features a detailed interview with Jeff Weidell, CEO of Northmarq, discussing capital markets, distress, debt funds, regulatory issues, and big-picture trends in rental housing investments and operations.
Top Five Takeaways From NMHC Annual Meeting
1. Industry Sentiment: Stuck in Neutral
Main segment: [04:20–06:45]
- The prevailing mood at NMHC was neither bullish nor bearish, but “neutral.” Attendees are realistic about the short-term headwinds in multifamily, even as they remain optimistic about long-term fundamentals.
- Quote: “The mood at NMHC didn’t feel especially bullish or bearish… I really think the best way to describe the mood and the sentiment there was, was more of the same or maybe just reality settling in.” (Jay Parsons, 05:48)
- Many hope for a better second half of the year, but Jay notes the same optimism existed in previous years, tempered now by context and recent history.
2. Debt Is Abundantly Available
Main segment: [06:45–13:00]
- After a short period of contraction, the debt market has rebounded, with private credit (debt funds) now competing intensely and offering more favorable (though not peak) terms to high-quality sponsors.
- Strong assets can recapitalize at attractive terms, sometimes at valuations higher than the private sale market.
- Quote: “The biggest takeaway may be just… the abundance of debt availability. Debt funds are very eager to deploy capital and they seem to recognize they’re just not going to get the juicy terms that they expected when those funds were raised.” (Jay Parsons, 07:20)
- This abundance allows owners to wait for better exit times, resulting in fewer forced sales.
3. Buyers Are Still Patient and Discerning
Main segment: [13:00–16:30]
- The much-discussed “expanding of the buy box” has not occurred. Most equity still focuses on well-located, newer assets; even modest forays into older vintage or value-add are highly selective.
- The market is liquid, but deal volume is thin—buyers have capital, but desirable assets rarely come up for sale due to widespread refinancing.
- Quote: “Nearly everyone with equity to deploy… they’re still targeting well-located, newer vintage assets.” (Jay Parsons, 11:06)
- Efforts to buy distressed high-quality assets at steep discounts are often frustrated by recap activity.
4. Who Will Buy Actual Distress? That’s Still Unclear
Main segment: [16:30–19:00]
- There is confusion over who (at scale) will buy truly distressed, older properties in weaker submarkets. Former buyers are now attempting to hold on, with limited fresh capital for this segment.
- Quote: “I still can’t quite figure out who will be the buyers at any scale… for older vintage deals in weaker performing submarkets.” (Jay Parsons, 17:08)
5. Fundamentals: It’s Still a Renter’s Market
Main segment: [19:00–21:00]
- Renters are conditioned to expect deals, discounts, or concessions, especially in high-supply locations (e.g., DC, Boston, SoCal).
- Certain markets remain healthy (NYC, Chicago, Midwest), but across the board, operators expect it will take multiple leasing cycles before concessions burn off.
- Quote: “Most prospective renters today… they’re like car shoppers who expect a deal. They expect to pay below MSRP.” (Jay Parsons, 19:21)
Interview with Jeff Weidell, CEO of Northmarq
Jeff’s Origin Story
[28:37–30:00]
- Entered CRE finance “by accident” after seeking to become a real estate developer, instead meeting a mortgage banker and following a decades-long career in finance.
Evolution of Multifamily Debt Markets
[30:00–32:13]
- Multifamily has shifted from a fringe investment to the dominant asset class for institutional CRE lending.
- The agency presence (Fannie/Freddie) post-2008 attracted more institutional capital and nationalized the business.
- Platform firms like Northmarq transitioned from local to national and now offer capital markets services and brokerage, not just loans.
The Rise and Staying Power of Debt Funds
[32:13–34:00]
- Jeff sees debt funds as a permanent fixture, serving needs banks can’t. “They were formed for a specific purpose… they’re around to stay. Why wouldn’t they be?” (Jeff Weidell, 33:11)
- Debt funds increase optionality and leverage but are more active in aggressive Sun Belt metro areas.
On Distress and Maturities
[34:15–37:44]
- Patience dominates: “The longer you could delay making a decision, the better off you are.” (Jeff Weidell, 34:50)
- Institutions have run options like interest-only periods and extensions, but maturity walls from 2021–2022 loans will gradually force more resolutions.
- Resolution is tied more to sponsor strength than property region or quality; strong sponsors get time and flexibility, weaker ones may see lenders push sales/foreclosures.
Who Buys “True Distress”?
[38:41–41:33]
- There is slow capital deployment, but few signs that capital will move down-market for lower-quality product. Most funds prefer to sit idle than buy lower-tier assets.
- Value-add focus has narrowed to well-located deals; little interest exists for distressed product in weaker areas.
On Private Equity’s Buy Box
[41:43–42:39]
- No major sign buyers are expanding into lower quality products, but pressure to deploy capital is building.
GSEs and Privatization
[43:00–47:59]
- Jeff expects incremental capital raises (private capital infusions) before full GSE privatization.
- Politics contributes to regulatory risk—a consistency of mission and liquidity is the agencies’ strength.
- Quote: “No one wants to mess up a good thing. If it’s working and it’s keeping housing affordable for Americans, that’s a priority.” (Jeff Weidell, 43:22)
- Jay: “For investors… just tell us the rules and let us have confidence they’re not going to change.” (Jay Parsons, 47:01)
Regulatory Reform and Red Tape
[49:39–52:59]
- New FHA Commissioner Frank Cassidy is prioritizing efficiency—current FHA/HUD processes are antiquated and slow.
- Quote: “There’s a huge overreach in their environmental reports… all the private market says yes and FHA HUD says oh, that’s too near a freeway.” (Jeff Weidell, 51:00)
- Streamlining and decentralizing review could unlock a lot more supply.
SFR/Build-to-Rent Policy and Capital Flows
[53:04–55:49]
- Jay and Jeff discuss the latest executive order restricting institutional SFR (Single Family Rental) acquisitions—but not new BTR (Build-To-Rent) communities.
- Jeff expects these policies to channel more capital into BTR, benefitting both the sector and Northmarq’s business.
- Quote: “This is good for us… it’s going to focus the capital investment into our build-to-rent inventory. And for good reason—it is excepted from the order.” (Jeff Weidell, 53:44)
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- “Neutral is, I think, the best way to describe the tone there.”
(Jay Parsons, 05:48) - “Debt funds are very eager to deploy capital… they’re just not going to get the juicy terms that they expected.”
(Jay Parsons, 07:22) - “Why would [debt funds] exit? They serve real estate very specifically… they’re around to stay.”
(Jeff Weidell, 33:11) - “One thing I learned a long time ago… the longer you could delay making a decision, the better off you are.”
(Jeff Weidell, 34:50) - “The key is probably the strength of sponsor… the better the capitalization of the entity, the more the willingness to extend and restructure.”
(Jeff Weidell, 37:00) - “I don’t get the impression that people are going to go down quality.”
(Jeff Weidell, 38:50) - “Most prospective renters… are like car shoppers who expect a deal. They expect to pay below MSRP.”
(Jay Parsons, 19:21) - “There’s a huge overreach in their environmental reports… all the private market says yes and FHA HUD says oh, that’s too near a freeway.”
(Jeff Weidell, 51:00) - “For investors… just tell us the rules and let us have confidence they’re not going to change.”
(Jay Parsons, 47:01) - “This is good for us… it’s going to focus the capital investment into our build-to-rent inventory.”
(Jeff Weidell, 53:44)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- NMHC Top Five Takeaways: 04:20–21:00
- Interview with Jeff Weidell:
- Background & Northmarq: 28:37–30:00
- Evolution of Multifamily Debt: 30:00–32:13
- Debt Funds: 32:13–34:00
- Distress & Extensions: 34:15–37:44
- True Distress & Buy Box: 38:41–42:39
- GSE Privatization: 43:00–47:59
- FHA/HUD Reforms: 49:39–52:59
- SFR/BTR Executive Order: 53:04–55:49
Memorable Moments
- Jay’s humor and realism: “Every time I heard that, I said, hey, well remember everyone said that in 24 and 25 as well.” (06:18)
- Jeff’s accidental path to mortgage banking: “I called Don Kieselhorst and he was a mortgage banker... figured I would give it two years and see what the industry was like. And then another two years and now decades later, here I am.” (28:52)
- Policy cynicism: “It’s obviously hypocritical. It’s certainly not a way to treat public housing renters. You’re treating them essentially as second-class citizens.” (Jay Parsons, 25:38)
- Shoutouts: From life company lenders to the value of agency consistency, both host and guest give nods to long-term industry strengths.
Flow & Tone
The episode maintains Jay’s approachable, practical, and slightly irreverent voice, grounded in real-world observations and industry conversations. Jeff is candid, measured, and brings a practical, inside-the-room perspective—especially regarding policy and capital markets. The conversation is dense with insights but unfolds conversationally, giving listeners both high-level takeaways and on-the-ground anecdotes.
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode
If you want to know what’s really happening at the top levels of multifamily capital markets—and why we’re unlikely to see fire-sale deals or a boom in distressed sales, despite headlines—this episode distills the biggest NMHC insights and the major forces driving rental housing finance, investment, and policy in 2026. Jay and Jeff cut through the noise with straight talk on sentiment, liquidity, capital flows, and regulation, all with a view to what plays out next for investors, operators, and renters alike.