102. Putin's Secret Army: Criminals And Cannibals - Russia's War In Ukraine (Ep 5)

Summary

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Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Rest Is Classified
Episode: 102. Putin's Secret Army: Criminals And Cannibals – Russia's War In Ukraine (Ep 5)
Host(s): David McCloskey & Gordon Corera
Date: November 24, 2025

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Overview

This episode takes listeners deep into the formation and rise of Wagner Group as the spearhead—or perhaps the backstop—of Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine. Hosts David McCloskey (former CIA analyst and spy novelist) and Gordon Corera (veteran security correspondent) examine the unique, gruesome relationship between the Russian state, its mercenary armies, and its criminal underbelly. With sharp wit and access to inside stories, the hosts dissect Yevgeny Prigozhin's controversial tactics: recruiting criminals, deploying terrifying “meat waves,” and using sledgehammer executions to control his own men. At the heart is a chilling question: How did Russia’s shadow army go from denial to the pinnacle of its power—and what price comes with such unchecked brutality?

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: The Plan That Didn’t Survive First Contact

• Russian hubris:
  • 200,000 troops amassed at the border (02:59–04:05)
  • Initial Russian military plan: topple Zelensky and parade through Kyiv in 72 hours.
  • Wagner Group was not part of this original strategy; Prigozhin was out of favor, struggling to access decision-makers.

  “The Russian military… had their dress uniforms and instruments… ready for a parade when they got into Kyiv ... Instead, they meet fierce Ukrainian resistance and that plan collapses.” — Gordon (04:27)

  • Rumors abounded that Wagner hit squads were in Kyiv, but evidence now suggests otherwise—other mercenary groups may have been involved, but Wagner was sidelined until the plan unraveled.

2. Wagner’s Call to War: Opportunism Amid Chaos

• Wagner’s entry:
  • Prigozhin is brought in only after Russia’s military plan falls apart; called by Alexeev from the GRU on March 19, 2022 (05:44–05:57).
  • Wagner's ability to thrive where “someone else's plan has collapsed” (06:13).
  • Wagner’s numbers surge: from a few thousand to up to 85,000 fighters at the peak—larger than the British Army (07:43).

3. The Prison Recruitment Drive: Desperation and Barbarity

• How Wagner filled its ranks:
  • Prigozhin leverages his criminal past; personally tours Russian penal colonies to recruit (08:28–09:38).

    “You could be like me. You could live the dream. You could escape, you could do something.” — Gordon, paraphrasing Prigozhin (09:52)

  • Speech delivered to prisoners offering freedom and a pardon after six months of service, regardless of crimes — including murder and sexual offenses (10:26–12:47, full speech quoted below).
  • “Batch recruitment”: nearly 50,000 prisoners sign up (16:25).

    “It is a pretty frightening thing because… you could have a serial rapist… who then go fight and then get… released back into Russia.” — David (14:37)

  • The reality: cannibals, sex offenders, and murderers unleashed at the front—and subsequently, back home.

    “Supposedly get whole units of sex offenders… cannibals…” — Gordon (15:04)

4. The Prigozhin Speech: “You Could Be Like Me.”

[Full text delivered by hosts at 10:36–12:47]

“I'm the representative of a private military company… it's called PMC Wagner. The war in Ukraine is hard… My ammunition consumption is about twice as high as during the Battle of Stalingrad. The first sin is desertion: no one backs out, no one retreats, no one surrenders. During your training, you'll be told about two grenades you must have with you in case of imminent surrender… The second sin is alcohol and drugs. The third sin is pillaging, including sexual contact with local women. Flora, fauna, men, whatever… The minimum age that we accept is 22… The maximum age is 50, but this number is conditional… We also conduct careful examination of those who are incarcerated for sexual offenses. But we understand that people make mistakes… Who do we need? We need only stormtroopers…
…Those who join but on the first day say they are in the wrong place, will be considered deserters, and we will shoot them. Guys, do you have any questions?”
— Yevgeny Prigozhin speech, read by David (10:36–12:47)

Memorable Response:

“I mean, it also seems like… if you're in a Russian penal colony, you might really consider this… If you're at the start of a 30-year sentence… maybe it's worth a shot.” — David (13:29)

5. Wagner’s “Meat Waves” and Punishments: Brutality on Display

• Meat waves:
  • Prisoners thrown at Ukrainian lines with a week’s training, expected to die en masse to deplete Ukrainian defenses (16:54).

    “It was basically that the Russians would just throw waves of people at the Ukrainian lines who were cannon fodder. Knowing they would be killed just to exhaust the Ukrainians, run down their ammo… Then you send in your proper troops.” — Gordon (17:37)

• Punishment for desertion:
  • Famous case: Evgeny Nuzhin, recruited prisoner, surrendered to Ukraine, but returned in a swap—executed with a sledgehammer in a viral video (18:46–20:30).

    “A man then gets a sledgehammer and smashes his head in, which, as we've seen before, is the kind of the Wagner way of dealing with this. The video goes viral...” — Gordon (19:06)

  • Prigozhin’s flair for theater: Sends a sledgehammer (engraved, bloodied, in a violin case) to the European Parliament (20:08).

6. Prigozhin’s Embrace of Notoriety and “The Dark Side”

• Coming out in the open:
  • For years, Prigozhin denied involvement in Wagner or the Internet Research Agency; now he brags about both and positions himself as a Russian nationalist (23:15–24:28).

    “He’s going to embrace the kind of dark side. He’s going to say, 'You've heard of Wagner? I cleaned the old weapons myself… A group of patriots was born, which later came to be called the Wagner Battalion.'” — Gordon (23:16)

• PR machine:
  • Prigozhin depicted as the anti-elite, “everyman”—not a general or minister, but a self-styled defender of the motherland.
  • Early Wagner victories hyped; billboards appear; assassination rumors swirl—which only boost his image (24:31–25:24).

7. Political Tensions & Prigozhin’s Climb

• Partial Mobilization (Sept 2022):
  • Russian military mobilizes 300,000, youth flee the country, but Putin still avoids “full mobilization.”
  • Prigozhin and nationalists clamor for all-out war (25:24–27:46).
• General Surovikin (“General Armageddon”) put in charge: Reputation for brutality, aligned with Wagner.
• Wagner’s headquarters, branding, and political ambitions:
  • New St. Petersburg HQ, slick PR, hints of political aspirations denied repeatedly (27:50–29:06).
  • Prigozhin’s actual goal: acceptance into Putin’s innermost circle; perhaps the Defense Minister post.
• Putin’s Power Paranoia:
  • Russian autocrats historically fear not mass uprisings, but palace coups. Putin balances competing factions (29:08–31:23).
  • Prigozhin used as a “counterweight” to the military—until his mercenary army grows too powerful to ignore, raising the specter of a challenge to the state.

8. Prigozhin’s Downfall Foreshadowed

• Political limits:
  • As Wagner grows, Prigozhin oversteps:

    “He seems to be maybe running up against the limits of his political savvy… so intoxicated by… the growth that Wagner has seen in Ukraine that maybe he’s not able to see some of these challenges looming in front of him.” — David (32:50)

  • Prigozhin’s “hot headed” nature, cruelty, and disregard for limits will prove his undoing (33:32–34:31).
• Cliffhanger ending:
  • The next (final) episode will address Prigozhin’s ill-fated “march on Moscow”—the boldest challenge to Putin’s rule in a generation (34:31–35:01).

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Russian planning:

  “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” — Gordon (04:05)

• On Wagner’s growth:

  “At its peak, Wagner is going to have 85,000 troops. That is… bigger than the current serving British army.” — Gordon (07:43)

• On the price of recruiting criminals:

  “It is a pretty frightening thing… you could have a serial rapist… go fight and… get released back into Russia.” — David (14:37)

• Prigozhin’s brutal contract:

  “Those who join but on the first day say that they are in the wrong place, will be considered deserters, and we will shoot them.” — Prigozhin speech, read by David (12:43)

• On “meat waves”:

  “The Russians would just throw waves of people at the Ukrainian lines… to exhaust the Ukrainians… then you send in your proper troops.” — Gordon (17:37)

• On sledgehammer executions:

  “A man then gets a sledgehammer and smashes his head in, which, as we've seen before, is the kind of… Wagner way.” — Gordon (19:06)

• On Prigozhin’s PR genius and ambition:

  “He always knew… how to play the PR game, how to kind of brand himself… I’m not one of the elite, I’m not one of those generals or ministers who screwed up this war plan…” — Gordon (24:31)

• On Putin’s balancing act:

  “He’s always trying to balance different factions and individuals in his court to avoid anyone becoming too powerful and becoming a risk.” — Gordon (29:06)

• On political danger:

  “As Prigozhin… reaches his kind of zenith… this balance that Putin is trying to do is getting out of kilter. He is moving into a space that really only the Tsar, only Putin should be in.” — Gordon (31:23)

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Key Timestamps

• 02:59–04:05 – Recap of Russia’s initial invasion strategy and why it failed.
• 04:27–05:57 – Wagner’s exclusion and subsequent call-up when the official plan collapses.
• 07:43 – Wagner’s fighting force surpasses the British Army.
• 08:28–09:38 – Prigozhin’s personal recruitment push in Russian prisons.
• 10:36–12:47 – The full, chilling recruitment speech by Prigozhin to prisoners.
• 16:25 – 50,000 prisoners recruited from penal colonies.
• 17:37 – The use of “meat waves” against Ukrainian lines.
• 18:46–20:30 – Sledgehammer execution broadcast and its implications.
• 23:15–24:28 – Prigozhin openly claiming Wagner and Internet Research Agency.
• 27:50–29:06 – Wagner’s rebranding, HQ, and political aspirations.
• 29:08–31:23 – Power dynamics and Putin’s fear of internal coups.
• 32:50–34:31 – Prigozhin’s fatal flaws and ominous foreshadowing.
• 34:31–35:01 – The episode cliffhanger: “march on Moscow” preview.

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Language & Tone

Conversational, sometimes darkly humorous, but always incisive. The hosts blend Russian history, political intrigue, military detail, and grim reality with pithy asides and gallows humor. They lean into the bizarre and horror-laden aspects of Wagner’s story while never losing sight of the real-world consequences.

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Conclusion

In this episode, listeners obtain a penetrating look into how Russia’s war in Ukraine became a proving ground for the modern mercenary—a bloody process reliant on criminal recruits, draconian discipline, and calculated propaganda. With Prigozhin’s rise came both battlefield gains and grave risks to Putin’s own regime. When mercenary armies rival state forces in power, the very stability of autocracy comes into question. The coming episode promises to reveal how that tension erupts.

Transcript

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[B]

Well, welcome to the Rest is classified. I'm David McCloskey.

[D]

I'm Gordon Carrera and I still I.

[B]

Feel exposed without an opening quote. Gordon, do you?

[D]

Let's try it.

[A]

I will say we have a For.

[B]

Those of you who enjoy these opening quotes, we have a phenomenal one, but it's just going to be later in the episode. We're saving it as a. As a proper cliffhanger.

[D]

It's a speech, not a quote.

[B]

It's A speech. Yes, exactly. That's a great one. It's a motivational speech that I intend to give my children when they're old enough.

[D]

Yeah, when they're old enough, they're old enough.

[B]

And considering the sort of the potential that joining a mercenary company may offer. So if you tune in to the. Russia's classified for quotes, you don't just get a quote, you get a speech. So hang on the line for that, but we are going to the sort of the later chapters of this exceptional story of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner group. And we have been on this journey with Mr. Prigozhin through his time as a caterer, as Putin's chef, as a. As a PR guru, as a mercenary warlord. Last time, we sort of did a global tour of all of Wagner's sort of business opportunities in Africa, in the Middle East. And we're now, I guess, Gordon, in early 2022, February of 2022, the Russians are amassing nearly 200,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. And the Wagner story, which starts in Ukraine.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Is now going to come back full circle on the backs of the Russian invasion.

[D]

That's right. So the Russian military have got their plan to topple President Zelensky in Ukraine. And it's a good plan, it's a good plan, but no plan survives first contact with the enemy. And the original Russian plan was that it was all gonna be over in 72 hours. Just a reminder, we did a series on this earlier in the year, so if you wanna.

[B]

Episodes 31 through 34.

[D]

Well done, David.

[B]

Of the rest is classified top marks.

[D]

But the. If you wanna know the plan, what happens, Western intelligence go back and listen to that. But the Russian military, you know, had their dress uniforms and instruments with them, ready for a parade when they got into Kyiv. As they think they'll just kind of walk in and then be able to kind of march around. And instead they meet fierce Ukrainian resistance, of course, and that plan collapses. But the crucial thing is the signs are that Wagner, this mercenary group, are not part of this original plan. Prigozhin, as we've seen last time, had been struggling, actually, to get his calls returned from military intelligence. He was having rows with them. He's getting the cold shoulder from Defence Minister Shoigu. And there were rumours, I remember at the time, covering the invasion, that Wagner teams were undercover in Kiev. They were assassins who were going to take out Zelensky. But actually, it doesn't look like they were there at all. You know, it might have been other mercenary groups who might have been there. And you know, of course the reputation for Wagner means everyone's going to talk about them because they've got this reputation for violence. So Prigozhin has been left out of the original plan. It's an original plan run by the Russian Defense Ministry. But now it fails. The Kremlin needs to rethink. The 72 hour war is suddenly turning into something very different.

[B]

That's an opportunity for a mercenary.

[D]

Yeah. So, you know, finally, on March 19th, nearly a month after the invasion, Prigozhin gets the call. He gets the call from Alexeev, the number two in the gru, his contact. Now they need his help, who are.

[B]

Probably like, we gotta call this guy. Yeah, we gotta wait. I hate having to make this call, you know, because Prigozhin really seems to. And Wagner, they seem to do really well in environments where someone else's plan has collapsed, you know, and you, like.

[D]

I guess we need to call Prigozhin and Wagner, you know.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

And you can sense they didn't want to do it. The Redoubt mercenaries have all been wiped.

[B]

Out, you know, which is a redut is the Russian Ministry of Defense's answer to Bogdan, to Wagner. So it's the sort of their attempt to recreate this sort of entrepreneurial spirit of this small startup. And they've all been killed. They're all dead in Ukraine and of.

[D]

Course 175, maybe more thousand Russian troops for the original invasion plan. Now they realize that's not going to be enough because the Ukrainians are resisting. The Ukrainians have mobilized their population for war. Crucially, the Russians haven't mobilized their entire population and army for war, and they don't want to. Putin is nervous about that because after all, it's not a war, it's not an invasion. It's a special military operation.

[B]

Very special, very special.

[D]

Which means you told your public it's just a special military operation. You can't then kind of, you know, mobilize everyone and kind of conscript the population. So where do you turn? And the answer, of course, is Wagner. And this is going to transform Wagner from a kind of smallish mercenary fighting force, low thousands, mainly fighting far away in Africa, to a really significant army fighting on Russia's borders, which is of course something which is inherently dangerous.

[B]

That's called foreshadowing, Gordon.

[D]

It is.

[B]

Well done.

[D]

A little bit of plot foreshadowing there. So Prigozhi is going to pull his existing teams from Africa to come and join the fight. Massive influx of new recruits. By June 2022, thought to be 25,000 Wagner fighters in the east of Ukraine. They're going to get tanks, artillery, aerial support from MOD. At its peak, Wagner is going to have 85,000 troops. Now, that is, it's worth saying, is bigger than the current serving British army. Which tells you something about the state of the British army, that it's. That Wagner's fighting force, you know, at its peak, was bigger than the entire serving British army. And it's going to grow from 25,000, maybe at the start of the war, up to this 85,000.

[B]

Where are they getting all these, all these men, Gordon?

[D]

Well, David, where are they getting all these men from? The answer, of course, is somewhere that Evgeny Prigozhin knows incredibly well. Prison. Where else would you go to get a mercenary fighting force where he came from?

[B]

And I guess there are a lot of advantages to this. Right. One is that you don't have to go into the Russian population.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

The second is that to then lose these people, you kind of don't care if you're the Russian state, it probably helps you to some degree to empty out your prisons. Right. And I would imagine that at least some of these men have experience with violence.

[D]

Exactly. So summer of 2022, Prigozhin personally turns up in Russian penal colonies. Often flying in by helicopter, gathers the prisoners in the courtyard to address them, and of course, he knows how to talk to them. He was one of them. You know, this is where our story started. You know, teenage Prigozhin, you know, getting into trouble with the law and ending up in penal colonies.

[B]

He's got that tattoo of the woman on his back, which we don't know exactly what this woman looks like, but it was inked in with certain urine in colony. So he's got the street cred.

[D]

Yeah, but he's traveled a long way. I mean, so he's now 60, I guess. Yeah, he's 60 years old. He's now the big man. I mean, it must be crazy for him. He'd started 40 years ago in the prison colonies, getting beaten up or whatever it was.

[B]

It's a heartwarming story.

[D]

And he's lived the dream. Now he's a kind of billionaire or multimillionaire businessman flying into the prison colonies, saying to these guys, you could be like me. You could live the dream. You could escape, you could do something. And so I think really what he's.

[B]

Offering them, though, is to be cannon fodder in Ukraine Is that right?

[D]

That's true. So there's a great video of him which is maybe secretly filmed, maybe leaked. No one's quite sure. Speaking in Moldovia, which comes to light in September 2022, where he gathers hundreds of inmates in a yard and then offers them a deal. And this is where we come to our rather wonderful speech.

[B]

Yes, from Prigoshan to the quote.

[D]

Not a quote, not a quote. A speech, which I think is so good.

[B]

Should I read this, Gordon? I've of course been preparing extensively channel you, Danny Prigozhin. Okay.

[A]

I'm the representative of a private military company. You may have heard of it. It's called PMC Wagner. The war in Ukraine is hard. Not even close to the Chechen wars and others. My ammunition consumption is about twice as high as during the Battle of Stalingrad. The first sin is desertion. No one backs out, no one retreats, no one surrenders. During your training, you'll be told about two grenades you must have with you in case of imminent surrender. The second sin is alcohol and drugs. The third sin is pillaging, including sexual contact with local women. Flora, fauna, men, whatever. The minimum age that we accept is 22. If you are younger, we need a paper from your next of kin giving their permission. The maximum age is 50, but this number is conditional. I repeat, it is conditional. If you are strong, we will conduct an interview and basic tests to see how strong you are. Physical fitness is essential. We also conduct careful examination of those who are incarcerated for sexual offenses. But we understand that people make mistakes. Who do we need? We need only stormtroopers. 60% of my guys are Stormtroopers. And you'll be one of them. You won't be any different from us. You'll be treated the same, sometimes even with more loyalty than I showed to my own men who've been fighting for years and have gone through dozens of wars. The bodies of those who die are taken to the place you specify in your will to your relatives or will be buried where you specify. All those who die are buried in heroes plots in the towns where these exist. Those who don't know where to be buried are buried next to the Wagner chapel in Gorachi Klirch in Russia. After six months of service, you can come home with a pardon. Those who wish to stay with us can do so, and there is no option that you would go back to prison. Those who join but on the first day say that they are in the wrong place, will be considered deserters, and we will shoot them. Guys, do you have any Questions.

[D]

That's brilliant. I mean, you channeled it beautifully, David. Particularly the warning of having sex with flora or fauna. Which is one of the more bizarre.

[B]

Men.

[A]

Whatever, whatever.

[D]

Which is one of the more bizarre. I mean, it's just like. That is Prigozhin, isn't it? That's the kind of rough, tough, you.

[F]

Know.

[B]

If you had decided to have sex with the plants.

[D]

Yeah. Then you're the animals. That's a no. No.

[B]

That's a no. No.

[D]

I mean. And then. I love it. He ends the speech and he goes, decision time is five minutes. By the time we leave, time's up. In other words, he gives that speech to these prisoners and he goes, five minutes, decide.

[B]

Think about it.

[D]

You're in, you out. It is wild.

[B]

I mean, it also seems like, you know, if you're in a Russian penal colony, you might really consider this.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

I mean, this seems like not a bad deal.

[D]

You take the deal. I mean, it depends. To me, it kind of depends. Just putting myself in the place of a Russian penal colonist. If that's the right word.

[B]

I don't know if it is. I think prisoner is the right word.

[D]

The right way is. I think it would depend on where I was in my sentence. Like, if I'm like about to be released, I'm like, I'll just wait rather than go, and. Whereas if you're at the start of like a 30 year sentence and you're like six months fighting, and then maybe I get out for pardon, then you kind of go, maybe. Maybe it's worth a shot. There's a few things which I think are fascinating about it. One is it's a big move within the Russian state to be able to offer a pardon to any prisoner who joins up. You know, your record is wiped out. I mean, it's a sign. You can't do that unless you have the Kremlin's say so. And. Yeah, from the very top, because you're overriding, you know, prison sentences, the judicial system, everything.

[B]

The vaunted Russian judicial system is being over, overwritten. I mean, it is, though, when you get to the guts of it, it is a. It is a pretty frightening thing because as he, as he says in that speech, you could have a serial rapist.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

I mean, he says, we kind of don't want sexual offenders. And essentially what he says is, we don't want them, but kind of will check you out and have some conversations. We might accept you. So you could have people who have done some awful things.

[D]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Who then go Fight and then get. Get released back into Russia.

[D]

Yeah. So, I mean, you get. You supposedly get whole units of sex offenders. I mean, you know, which is kind of wild. You get cannibals.

[B]

Is there a cannibal unit?

[D]

I don't. It's a cannibal unit. But you get people who.

[B]

They never made it there. They just, you know each other.

[D]

And I mean, if your son, daughter, wife, husband has been killed by someone and you. They've gone to prison and then suddenly they're getting released, I mean, that's going to cause quite a lot of anger. So the families of kind of victims of these murderers are angry. Yeah. They fight for six months and then you get a pardon. So you then get a whole wave of prisoners who are gonna get released after six months who are murderers and who will then, you know, go on to murder more people. Pardon? Mercenary, kind of douses his sister with petrol and burns her alive in Nizhniy Novgorod, you know, like, kind of having been released under this thing. So you're getting nasty people who are taking this deal and then they're gonna do nasty things. But needs must, you know.

[B]

Needs must, needs must.

[D]

That's Putin's Russia.

[B]

That's why Ivan the Cannibal came back home. Thought we'd see that guy again. But. Yeah, he ate somebody.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

And then he went to Ukraine for six months now. Now he's back and you see him hanging around the Moscow suburbs.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

And so close.

[B]

He ate somebody. Now he's. Now he's home.

[D]

Close to 50,000 prisoners sign up. It's thought. I mean, no one knows 50,000 prisoners are going to get out this way. So it's. It's not exactly bad. Brothers.

[B]

Yeah, I was going to say it's kind of.

[D]

It's like the.

[B]

It's like the opening of Saving Private Ryan. Isn't it worth what it is? I mean, they are given what I would assume would be the. The worst assignments on the front in terms. Right. Yeah, it has to be right. Because they're just so low value.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

To the Russian state.

[D]

They completely cannon fodder. They get a week of training and then, you know, I've been out to Ukraine a couple of times since the war started, and I remember, you know, Ukrainian people on the front line, soldiers who I'd interview, who would talk to me about seeing what they would call meat waves. And I mean, it's a pretty nasty concept, but it was basically that the Russians would just throw waves of people at the Ukrainian lines who were cannon fodder. Knowing they would be killed just to exhaust the Ukrainians, run down their ammo, exhaust them, and then when they felt they were exhausted, and then you send in your proper troops who are going to try and break through. So that is what they are using these kind of Wagner conscripts for and what they'll use them for. It's a kind of brutal, intense warfare where you just don't care about human life and you kill anyone who turns around. Right.

[B]

And Prigozhin was very clear in that speech that deserters would be killed.

[D]

Deserters are going to be killed. And there's one particular case that becomes very famous about the kind of punishment. There's a guy who's 55, so already over that 50 year old barrier that Prigozhin had claimed that was there for.

[B]

I get these barriers are pretty loose, Pretty loose.

[D]

A guy called Nevgeny Nyuzhin, who was a murderer and he was serving a 24 year sentence for murder, joins Wagner to get out after seeing, you know, Prigozhin personally in his prison. He had only four years left to serve. So in August he gets recruited from his prison. He arrives in occupied Luhansk region in Eastern Ukraine. He's formed into one of these assault squads. At one point he's being assigned to recover corpses. It's a little bit vague, but apparently he surrenders to the Ukrainians, gives an interview in which he talks about this, but then for some reason it appears he gets swapped back to the Russian side in a prisoner swap. Not a good idea.

[B]

Now it's the wrong direction to go in.

[D]

A wrong direction to go in when you've apparently surrendered to the Ukrainians. Graphic content warning for the kids. If you're listening with your kids, this.

[B]

Is the point in the episode where you're giving the graphic content warning. Is that right?

[D]

Oh, sorry. After the cannibals.

[B]

After the cannibals.

[D]

Sorry.

[B]

The brigades of meat waves. The meat waves.

[D]

Yeah, okay.

[B]

The brigades of sexual predators who are thrown at the Ukrainian lines.

[D]

Even More graphic warning. November 2022. A video appears of this Evgeny Nugent looking in a bad way in what appears to be a cellar. His head is taped to a concrete block and he confesses to desertion. A man then gets a sledgehammer and smashes his head in, which, as we've seen before, is the kind of the Wagner way of dealing with this. The video goes viral on TikTok. I mean, it gets like millions, millions, millions of views. Which is again about the kind of dark fan culture around Wagner And Prigozhin himself says, it seems to me that this film should be called A Dog's Death for a Dog. It was an excellent piece of direction and can be watched in a single sitting. You know, again, this is his movie producer thing. I hope no animals were harmed during filming. The same month the video comes out, the European Parliament adopts a resolution designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. And it's urging for Wagner to be placed on the kind of terrorist list alongside Al Qaeda and isis and Prigozhin. Or someone sends a sledgehammer engraved with the Wagner logo and smeared with fake blood in a violin case to the European Parliament. I mean, you know, it's your kind of mafioso horse's head in the bed.

[B]

And it's very theatrical, which I think appeals to him, too.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

I guess he's also getting to a point of no return where, I mean, I don't know if there was ever a point where he was considering going back the other way.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

But he's being asked to take on a role in Ukraine.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Or being given the opportunity, I think, to do something that's obviously putting him into a tremendous amount of conflict and tension with the actual Russian military.

[D]

Yeah, yeah. And I think that's the problem for him, is that he is kind of going for a walk on the dark side now, which is going to be dangerous for him.

[B]

And maybe they're gord with Prigozhin having gone full dark side. Take a break. When we come back, we will see how his, I think, incredible ambition for himself and Wagner will ultimately lead to his downfall on ebay.

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[B]

Well, welcome back. Prigozhin's stature, Gordon, I think, has gotten to the point here where he also seems to finally be sort of open. Yeah, yeah, exactly. He can no longer deny really that he's. And maybe he doesn't want to deny that he's behind Wagner or even the Internet Research Agency.

[F]

Yeah, that's right.

[A]

PR firm.

[D]

Yeah. For years he's been denying it. He's been kind of launching lawsuits against those who link him to the Internet Research Agency or to Wagner. And now I think the break is there with the West. He's got nothing to lose. He's going to embrace the kind of the dark side. He's going to say, you've heard of Wagner? I cleaned the old weapons myself. I sorted out the bulletproof vests myself. I found specialists who could help with me from that moment. On the 1st of May 2014, he kind of gives a date. A group of patriots was born, which later came to be called the Wagner Battalion. And yeah, he's also going to admit to being behind the Internet Research Agency. He's kind of not going to try and hide anymore. And I think what he's doing, he's going full in with the Russian nationalist community, which is obviously growing. It's been there all along, but it's growing with the war. Actually, there's this world of kind of military bloggers as well, who are emerging, who are kind of veterans, often who are on kind of telegram channels, the social media channels, you know, writing and talking about the war. He is going to kind of play up this image of a bit of an everyman, you know, because in some ways I think there's a little bit.

[B]

Of Pragosian in all of us, isn't there?

[D]

But I think what he is smart about is that whereas a lot of the people around Putin have kind of come through the elite and live in the elite, he has got a bit more of an ordinary background, not quite a working class background, because we saw at the start it's actually quite middle class. But, you know, he's been through the prison system. So he's going to kind of present himself as the voice of the ordinary nationalist, patriotic Russian. And he always knew, of course, we've seen, how to play the PR game, how to kind of brand himself. And so he's going to go out there and say, I'm the one who is doing what it takes to defend the motherland. I'm an ordinary guy. I'm not one of the elite, I'm not one of those generals or ministers who, who screwed up this war plan because of course.

[B]

Right, yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's the.

[D]

Military, it's the advisors around it.

[B]

The elite in the military screwed up this war.

[D]

You know, they screwed up this invasion plan, and now someone's got to come in and sort it out, and that's going to be me. They're running the war badly. So he's starting to kind of associate himself as well with these kind of ultra nationalist groups. And he's going to go to funerals for some of those ultra nationalist fighters in Russia. They know things are not going well, so they're looking for anyone who can kind of give them a boost. And there's some early victories for the Wagner forces. And of course, his PR machine, his trolls, are kind of starting to boost him and Wagner and of course then denigrate the Russian military. He's going to start featuring on billboards with Wagner fighters. So it's meaning he's getting kind of famous, notorious in the west, thanks to all these kind of videos and appearances, but also kind of famous in Russia. And the Ukrainians rumoured to try and kill him. But that also adds to the kind of the Image he's building. September 2022, Shoigu, the defense Minister Grasimov, the head of the military, persuade Putin to go for partial mobilization. So we heard they didn't have enough men. They need more men to get to the battlefield. So they're going to mobilize about 300,000. It is a big deal. It causes kind of anxiety across Russia. Conscriptors are hunting people down and kind of giving them their orders. Some people are fleeing the country, young Russians, to kind of avoid being conscripted. But still, Putin doesn't want full mobilization. So they're slightly less desperate for the Wagner troops than they were in those early months. They still need them, but maybe not quite as much as they did before. But Prigozhin and the nationalists are like, we need Full mobilization. We need to be all in on this war or we're going to lose it. Interestingly enough, General Surovikin, General Armageddon. General Armageddon from Syria, friend of Wagner, is put in charge of the Ukraine war from October 2022. Got that reputation for brutality in Syria, and the hope is he'll flatten Ukraine and do what it takes. So I think at this point, you can see Prigozhin is kind of. I think this is maybe the peak of his power as the kind of leader of this nationalist community. The mythology that he's built around himself, even his allies like General Surovikin, are kind of running the war in Ukraine. But at the moment, at the peak, he's gonna fly too close to the sun, I guess, is the risk.

[B]

Yes. It's very Icarus.

[D]

Yeah, it's very Icarus like, isn't it?

[B]

Very Icarus like. Well, he even does a bit of a rebrand, is too strong, but he gets a new headquarters in St. Petersburg. No sledgehammer as the logo. Yeah. But a very. A nice W. A big W for Wagner. Exactly.

[D]

Petersburg, you know, kind of glass tech.

[B]

Hq, you know, very goal hanger esque, I would say.

[D]

I'm not quite sure. Gaz.

[B]

Rebrand.

[D]

You know, the rebrand. Yeah. But it does. But, you know, the fact he's opening official headquarters does make it look like, I guess, is he moving into the political space? He's kind of traveling around the country. He's doing a lot of social media. He's, of course, denying having any political ambition.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

Which, as we always.

[B]

It's important to deny it. Yeah, yeah.

[D]

It's always the sign that you're thinking about it.

[B]

You're just on a giant bus tour around Russia, you know. Yeah. Meeting your fans.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

And I guess for him, though, I mean, politics in the sense, for him must mean acceptance into an inner circle around Putin. Yeah, right. I mean, that's what it means in the Russian sense. It's not. He's not trying to run for office somewhere so that he can, you know, pass important legislation. I mean, he's, He's. This is about currying favor.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

With the czar. Right.

[D]

Yeah. Pitching yourself that you are so indispensable, you need to be brought into that inner circle of power. Probably what he's got his eye on is being made Minister of Defence or something like that. That would be the logical thing. Let me run the war. Let me be in charge of the Ministry of Defense and all its contracts. And it does go to the kind of Putin system of power. And I think Putin has been in power, what, since 1999, 2000, effectively Prime Minister and president, but he looks like a dictator who's kind of solidly in power and has been there all that time. But I think the reality is he's a little bit more insecure than the power he projects. He's always trying to balance different factions and different groups and individuals in his court to avoid anyone becoming too powerful and becoming a risk to them. And I think that's part of his strategy, is to have his friends close, but also have some of his enemies close, but if they get too close, to knock them down.

[B]

If you look at the. Maybe some of the historical sweep of Russian autocracy, you would say that the fear is not some kind of mass uprising, really. The fear is going to be a challenge from within the corridors of power. Essentially, it's a coup, really. It's the thing that starts to bring down the czar. Right. It's what was attempted in, what, 1991.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Right.

[A]

So that is the challenge to the.

[B]

Romanovs before, any challenge would have been internal sort of politics. Right. So Putin's going to be thinking about the system constantly in terms of a balance that's almost invisible and actually is invisible to us and is happening behind closed doors. And I guess Prigozhin is sort of. Maybe the system is becoming imbalanced.

[D]

Yeah, exactly.

[B]

The war in Ukraine, I think that's right. And Prigozhin's rise, because I think in.

[D]

The past, Prigozhin had a value to Putin because he could use Wagner and Prigozhin to kind of balance against the military. He doesn't want either the generals or Prigozhin, in a way, to become too powerful. Prigozhin was a useful kind of counterweight to this court to generals or others who might be too important. And especially now, you've got a war on. There's a lot at stake.

[B]

A failed war is not good for a Russian autocrat.

[D]

Failed wars lead to revolutions, but also military heroes who win wars. Wars are also kind of dangerous. So you're also thinking, if you're Putin, I don't want a general or a mercenary leader who is going to be able to take credit for winning a war either. And so I think there is this sense that as Prigozhin, late 2022, reaches his kind of zenith of power and influence and is kind of building his brand, that this balance that Putin is trying to do is getting out of kilter. He is Moving into a space that really only the Tsar, only Putin should be in, of a kind of individual. And of course, almost without meaning to, you've got a mercenary army now on the borders of Russia, which historically is something they'd have been quite nervous of and anyone would have been nervous of. It's one thing having Wagner out in Africa a few thousand, but you've got 85,000, maybe a bit less once they're all killed in these meat waves. But on the borders of Russia and a person who is building his brand, you can see the danger and the real tension though, I think is going to come between Sergei Shoigu, you know, the Minister of Defense and Gerasimov on one hand and Prigozhin on the other over the war, over the conduct of the war, which I think is going to come to a head in 2023 in that most dramatic of ways.

[B]

Do you think that Prigozhin is smart? Because he's obviously entrepreneurial and has a certain appetite for risk and as we might have said in my consultancy days, Gordon. Yeah, a bias for action. But. But he seems to be maybe running up against the limits of his political savvy. Yeah, because that's right. He or he's so intoxicated by, I mean, the growth that Wagner has seen in Ukraine that maybe he's not able to see some of these challenges looming in front of him and negotiate a way around them or through them.

[D]

I think right from the start we've seen he is ambitious, he is smart, entrepreneurial, but he's also hot headed, isn't he? You know, you can see that from the start he does stuff which just goes. Goes too far.

[B]

Robbing that woman. We talked in episode one of this series, you know, it seemed to be a spur of the moment, spur of.

[D]

The moment and a level of cruelty and violence which I think is at the core of his character. We talked about him kind of going into the heart of darkness. I think he's let his wilder side rip even more as time has gone on. First in his time in Africa, but now, particularly as the war in Ukraine develops, that side of his personality is going to become even stronger. I think you're right. He hasn't quite got the kind of political savvy to know what the limits are and to know how to manage the situation and the kind of court politics that you need to survive in Putin, the Tsar's court.

[B]

So maybe there, Gordon, with Prigozhin having really reached the pinnacle of his power and fame, let's end and we come back next time for the thrilling conclusion of our series on Prigozhin. We will see how his downfall comes about and how a very ill fated march on Moscow leads to the biggest challenge, I think to Vladimir Putin's power since assuming the presidency 25 years earlier.

[D]

That's right. And just a reminder, if you want to hear that episode now, join the declassified club@the restisclassified.com and and you will get access to our special miniseries which is going to look at the rise of Putin, Putin as the KGB officer, the where that mentality comes from and how it feeds into some of his decision making and explains some of what goes on between him and Prigozhin. So sign up to listen to that and we'll see you next time.

[B]

See you next time.

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