The Rest Is Classified

Episode 115: Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)
Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Gordon Corera & David McCloskey

Overview

This emergency episode, the second in a special series, delves into the deeper motivations behind the recent US operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro—a stunning real-world intelligence mission. Hosts David McCloskey (former CIA analyst, author) and Gordon Corera (security correspondent) break down emerging details of the raid before stepping back to discuss why the US, and President Trump specifically, acted: Was it about drugs? Oil? Geopolitical power? Through revealing historical parallels and sharp analysis, they explore the “why” behind the operation and reflect on the wider implications for global politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Emerging Details on “Operation Absolute Resolve”

• Intelligence Picture & Source Networks ([03:06])

  • Ground branch CIA officers were in Venezuela as early as August, with full planning starting in September.
  • Recent high-level Venezuelan defectors (including former intelligence chiefs and state oil executives) helped activate local source networks, greatly aiding the operation.
  • US intelligence leveraged frustrated military officers still in place (“defectors in place”) for critical support.
  • “The role that recent defectors, really high level defectors, from Venezuela played in helping build source networks on the ground...” – David McCloskey [04:25]

• Communications Control & Handling Maduro ([06:20])

  • The US gained “total control...over Venezuelan government and military communication systems throughout the mission.”
  • Maduro is being videotaped at all times post-capture, both to deter torture allegations and in recognition of his “head of state” status (“head of state treatment for a future felon”).

Why Did the US Remove Maduro?

Three Main Theories: Drugs, Oil, & Raw Power

1. Drugs: The Official Justification ([08:29])

• The US government frames the action as a law enforcement operation, targeting Maduro as a “narco-terrorist.”

• Bounty on Maduro was raised to $50 million; superseding indictments charge him with international drug trafficking.

• Longstanding (since 2020) allegations: Maduro used his positions over the years to facilitate drug flights, diplomatic cover, and alliances with FARC, ELN, and the Sinaloa cartel.

  • “President Trump described Maduro as the kingpin of a vast criminal network trafficking drugs into the US...” – Gordon Corera [08:45]
  • “The idea is that this is a cartel which operates within the state, within high ranking military officers.” – Corera, on the “Cartel of the Suns” [11:07]

• Critical Analysis:

  • The alignment of the cartel with the state is “very convenient” for deposing a head of state (McCloskey, [11:22]).

  • While Venezuela is a transshipment point for cocaine—mainly bound for Europe—not a major source of fentanyl or cocaine for the US. The narrative is stretched for public/legal consumption.

  • “Most of the cocaine flowing through Venezuela is actually thought to be heading to Europe, not the United States. So again, you know, it doesn't quite stack up, you know, this sense that drugs are the justification for it.” – Corera [13:18]

• Why So Much Drug Rhetoric?

  • It’s a hot-button domestic issue for the US. Framing the raid as drug interdiction provides a clean, defensible story for the public.

2. Oil: The Old Cliché with a Grain of Truth ([17:16])

• The US desire to open Venezuelan oil fields to American companies is explicit; Trump himself cited this as a factor.

• Historical context: US firms’ oil assets were nationalized decades ago; recent years have seen further expropriations under Chávez and Maduro.

• Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves (17% of global total), but infrastructure is crumbling.

• Oil’s geopolitical dimension: China is the primary current investor and customer; the US aims to both restore corporate access and push China out.

  • “It has got...the world’s largest proven reserves of oil. I mean, it’s not Saudi Arabia...but it’s Venezuela” – Corera [19:52]
  • “It does recall the removal of a sitting head of state...with half an eye on the sort of natural resources of that country...” – McCloskey, drawing Iran/Guatemala parallels [20:30]

• Limitations:

  • US companies won’t rush back without stability, and years of investment would be required before returns materialize. So, oil isn’t the whole story.

3. Raw Power: The Monroe Doctrine Returns ([25:28])

• The operation also reflects an assertion of old-school US regional dominance—echoes of the Monroe Doctrine (1823), now rebranded by Trump as the “Donroe Doctrine” or "Trump Corollary".

• National security strategy now explicitly calls for US primacy in the western hemisphere, exclusion of “competitors” (China, Russia), and control of “strategic assets” (oil, minerals, the Panama Canal, Greenland).

  • “We are going to restore American preeminence in the Western hemisphere and deny it...to competitors...China, but others as well, and to deal with any kind of sources of threats to the United States and its security...” – Corera [30:10]
  • “The Monroe Doctrine...basically said, keep clear, this is our backyard.” – Corera [27:07]

• The Trump administration is unusually explicit and public about this doctrine and its ambitions.

Historical Parallels & Reflections

• “Very Convenient” Cartels & Pretexts: US has a pattern of aligning criminality (drugs, corruption) to legal justifications for regime change.
• Past Precedents:
  • Iran (1953), Guatemala (1954): US ousted regimes unfriendly to US business using “covert” tools.
  • Panama (1989): Most direct precedent for public military removal of a Latin American leader (Noriega).
    • “Operation in Panama...took a few weeks, claimed I think 26 American lives, few hundred Panamanians dead...rock music blared at Noriega...” – Corera [34:40]
    • The Venezuela raid displayed how much more precise and bloodless US special operations/information warfare has become since then.

The Geopolitical Fallout: Consequences & New Precedents

• For China/Russia: Significant loss of influence—most of Venezuela’s oil had been flowing to China, and Russia had deep ties.

• For Latin America: Sets a highly visible example for anti-US leaders—Colombia, Cuba, Greenland—US power could be deployed against them with a legal pretext.

  • “He [Trump] had words for the Colombian President, Gustavo Pedro, who he told to ‘watch his ass’...” – McCloskey [39:47]

• For Global Order: Revives old “spheres of influence”—raising questions about whether Russia/China might mirror this logic in Ukraine or Taiwan if the US stays out of their “backyards.”

  • “...the logic of a US backyard where we do what we want could suit other great powers as well.” – McCloskey [38:40]

• Risks: The US is strong at removing leaders, much weaker at building stable replacements (see Iraq, Libya). The “plan for the future of Venezuela” is much less developed than the operation itself (cf. horse meme, [45:19]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fiction vs. Reality:

  • “We don't need spy fiction, we don't need thrillers. We've got the real life stuff going on.” – Corera [03:02]
  • “Yeah, exactly. Been ruined by. By reality. I know.” – McCloskey [03:06]

• On the US “Justification” Rhetoric:

  • “There is also that slightly awkward fact that the former president of Honduras...was recently pardoned by President Trump. So the idea...is slightly undermined by that.” – Corera [15:59]

• On the Trump Doctrine:

  • “Donald Trump himself talks of...the Donroe Doctrine...we are going to restore American preeminence in the Western hemisphere and deny it...to competitors, namely, I suppose, particularly China...” – Corera [30:10]
  • “The reason why...the sort of power politics answer encompasses the oil piece, right, because oil is a component of that. And...key assets, if they're not in US hands, they need to be in the hands of friendly actors who will sort of do what the US Wants.” – McCloskey [31:19]

• On Planning vs. What Comes Next:

  • “There’s a picture of a horse...the back third is exquisitely stenciled and drawn and it says special Forces operation to capture Maduro. And then the head...look like they’re drawn by a four year old child...and it says plans for the future of Venezuela...” – McCloskey [45:18]

• On International Fallout:

  • “If Greenland became actually sought formal independence...offered concessions...to China, even to Russia. Right. That...could directly apply. Because I would argue that Greenland is much more important strategically...than Venezuela.” – McCloskey [43:17]

• On Cycle of Intervention:

  • “We've had an era of what was called gunboat diplomacy...It's interesting that Trump has explicitly hung a portrait of William McKinley in the White House.” – McCloskey [41:20]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Operation updates & intelligence: 01:43–07:41
• Why the US did it—framing the three factors: 08:07–08:39
• Drugs as official justification: 08:39–15:59
• Oil as a motivator: 17:16–23:08
• Monroe Doctrine, US hemispheric dominance: 25:28–32:49
• Public/explicit US doctrine & historical comparisons: 32:49–36:47
• Geopolitical consequences, risks of precedents: 37:28–45:08
• Plans for Venezuela’s future & closing thoughts: 45:08–48:15

Conclusion

David and Gordon’s deep-dive offers a richly detailed, urgent, and wide-ranging look at a world-shaping intelligence operation. They reveal how official narratives around drugs and oil can mask the return of raw power politics and spheres of influence—paralleling the Cold War but with today’s tools and geopolitics. The immediate removal of Maduro is only the beginning; the consequences for Venezuela and the global order are likely to be profound and unpredictable.

Follow-ups & Next Episode:
The hosts tease further analysis and historical episodes—unless world events (or another emergency in Greenland?) demand new special coverage.
“We hope you have enjoyed this deep dive and we'll see you next time.” – McCloskey [48:15]