The Rest Is Classified – Episode 118

Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)
Date: January 19, 2026
Hosts: David McCloskey & Gordon Corera

Episode Overview

This episode launches a two-part series diving into the current political crisis in Iran, centered on unprecedented countrywide protests and the Islamic Republic’s violent response. David McCloskey, ex-CIA analyst, and veteran security correspondent Gordon Corera examine how intelligence agencies—particularly the CIA—monitor, assess, and (try to) predict revolutionary moments like this. Drawing parallels to Syria, 1979 Iran, the Arab Spring, and more, they break down the “pillars” intelligence analysts use to evaluate regime stability and discuss why, despite all their tools, predicting revolution is nearly impossible.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Situation in Iran: Unprecedented Unrest

• Start of the Protests:

  • Protests began late December in Tehran’s major markets, initially driven by economic pressures (currency collapse, inflation, food shortages).
  • Demonstrations quickly expanded to over 280 locations, covering almost all of Iran’s 31 provinces.
  • David McCloskey (01:10):

    “This is the most significant internal challenge the Islamic Republic has ever faced... The scale and the intensity of these protests, the crackdown, the level of violence... it’s truly an unprecedented situation.”

• From Economic to Political Demand:

  • Economic anxiety morphed rapidly into political outrage as the regime responded with a brutal crackdown—including alleged shootings of children and machine gun attacks on crowds.
  • Estimated death tolls vary dramatically, from low thousands to as high as 20,000, exact numbers unknown due to information blackout.

• Role of U.S. and President Trump:

  • Trump’s social media comments appeared to embolden Iranian protestors, including promises to “come to their rescue” if protesters were killed (10:24).
  • However, Trump later canceled talks with Iranian officials and made unclear pledges of “help on the way,” leading to confusion and dashed hopes (11:48).

• Iranian Government’s Control of Information:

  • Regime responded by shutting down internet and international phone lines, isolating protestors and preventing news from spreading both domestically and abroad.
  • Gordon Corera (11:48):

    “The ability to shut down communications... stops the outside world knowing what’s going on... It has been an important factor in this.”

• Historical Context:

  • Previous protest waves (2009, 2019, 2022) never reached this level of scale or state response intensity.

2. How Intelligence Agencies Analyze the Crisis

Inside the CIA: “Mini McCloskeys” at Work

• The job of CIA Iran specialists, and how the agency has fused operational and analytical arms since 2015 as part of its “Near East Mission Center” (Nemec).

• Hundreds of experts focus on specific Iranian sectors: economy, military, leadership, etc.

• David McCloskey (13:59):

  “There’s a massive community spending all their time... writing stuff and briefing inside the intelligence community, inside the sort of national security bureaucracy on Iran."

• Non-American intelligence (the UK’s MI6, Joint Intelligence Organisation) also at work, but the US has more analytic firepower (22:45).

Data Collection & Gaps

• Mixed data streams: signals, human sources, open-source, press, and particularly insights from those crossing Iran’s borders during the blackout (16:08).
• Trident database aggregates all-source intel.
• Overload for analysts—mountains of daily reports, all feeding up to the President’s Daily Brief (PDB).
• The “big three” questions intelligence analysts get:
  1. How long can the government hold on?
  2. What possible scenarios exist moving forward?
  3. How can US/West affect the outcome? (18:00)

3. The “Pillars of Stability” Framework (24:06)

Analysts assess the regime’s survival odds using six core pillars:

1. Elite Cohesion

• How tightly are regime elites (political, clerical, military) united?
• In Iran, power is mostly consolidated around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the IRGC.
• Even former presidents have been sidelined; reformists have little actual power.
• Memorable quote, McCloskey (27:27):

  "IRGC...this sort of enforcer of the Supreme Leader’s autocratic will and deeply, deeply embedded in the economic structures.”

• Despite some reformists’ hesitation, all factions ultimately backed the crackdown.

2. Loyal & Effective Security Forces

• Regime’s ability to deploy overlapping, mutually surveilling forces: National Police, Basij (paramilitary), and IRGC.
• While some cracks at the lower ranks, “the regime has held the line” and security apparatus remains loyal.
• Deployment of elite units like the IRGC for domestic suppression indicates strain but not collapse.

3. A Fragmented or Divided Opposition

• Widespread anger, but no unified movement or figurehead.
• The exiled Reza Pahlavi (son of the Shah) is a minor, symbolic player, incapable of organizing resistance from abroad.
• McCloskey (36:53):

  “He would be a symbolic figurehead for some portion of the opposition. But he’s not in Iran. He doesn’t have the ability to command.”

4. Socioeconomic Contract

• The "deal" between people and regime is broken:
  • 50%+ inflation, 70%+ for food, currency has lost 80% of value.
  • Subsidies have disappeared, corruption and brain drain are rampant.
  • Economy hit by low oil prices & sanctions (“forced to sell to China at cut-rate prices”).
• Corera (37:28):

  “That contract is broken...very hard to see it fixable for this Iranian regime... one of the weakest pillars.”

5. Legitimacy Narrative

• The regime’s story—Islamic revolutionary, anti-imperialist, just—rings hollow; state propaganda about “foreign-backed terrorists” has little traction.
• 12-day war with Israel and US in 2025 undercut regime’s image of strength.
• McCloskey (40:18), quoting an Iran-based professor:

  “At the beginning of the revolution, the regime was 80% ideologues and 20% charlatans... Today it’s the reverse.”

6. Foreign Environment

• “Axis of resistance” (Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen) weakened; Iranian proxies and allies under attack, support from China & Russia is transactional and limited, the West (especially US) is unpredictable.
• Foreign aid/alliances unlikely to save regime.

4. Why Predicting Revolution Is So Hard

The Problem of Public vs. Private Beliefs

• In authoritarian states, people hide their true feelings (private views) behind public compliance.
• You can’t measure or collect “private views,” especially in repressive regimes—majority discontent only surfaces in “bandwagon” moments, which by their nature are unpredictable.
• McCloskey (48:32), on Timur Kuran’s theory of “revolutionary bandwagons”:

  "Critical thing here is any major shift in public views, by definition, has to be surprising... you can’t predict it."

Intelligence Gaps & the Realities of Power

• Real-time intelligence on inner-circle elites and security chiefs is extremely hard to get—and even they may not know their “breaking point” until some crisis moment (51:17).
• Even hated or weak regimes (e.g., North Korea, Assad’s Syria) can survive for years by sheer repression: “Zombie regimes.”
• Corera (52:59):

  “A regime willing and able to use its coercive apparatus to suppress unrest can stay in power for a long time.”

Lessons From Syrian and 1979 Iranian History

• Iran’s regime appears to have learned from Assad’s errors: Don’t hesitate, respond with overwhelming force immediately to shut down protests before mass defection occurs.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• David McCloskey (01:10):

  “It’s truly an unprecedented situation for the Islamic Republic.”

• Gordon Corera (11:48):

  “Ability to shut down communications... stops the outside world knowing what’s going on.”

• David McCloskey (37:56):

  “Iran’s inflation rates...more than 50%...over 70% for food, which is an insane, insane number.”

• David McCloskey (40:18): Quoting a Tehran professor:

  “At the beginning...it was 80% ideologues, 20% charlatans... Today it’s the reverse.”

• David McCloskey (48:32):

  “You don’t know when there’s going to be a revolutionary bandwagon...by definition, you can’t predict it.”

• Gordon Corera (52:59):

  “A regime willing and able to use its coercive apparatus can stay in power for a long time.”

Key Timestamps

• 00:24–02:28: Introduction to Iranian protests & intelligence agencies’ role
• 07:29–09:46: The start and spread of protests; economic triggers and regime crackdown
• 13:46–18:00: Inside the CIA—how analysts collect and synthesize intelligence during fast-moving crises
• 22:06–24:06: Pillars of regime stability—elite cohesion, security services, opposition, etc.
• 29:55–34:46: Deep dive on regime security forces—their structure, loyalty, challenges
• 37:28–39:10: Socioeconomic collapse—runaway inflation, sanctions, subsidies gone
• 40:18–42:23: Crisis of legitimacy and weakened foreign alliances
• 43:31–44:53: Predicting revolution using the “pillars” model—its limits and uncertainties
• 48:32–51:17: The problem of public vs private views and the unpredictability of mass revolt

Tone & Style

The conversation is urgent, grounded, and analytical but peppered with dry humor, occasional banter (McCloskey on CIA “modernization”; Gordon ribbing David’s theoretical leanings), and clear, non-technical explanations. Technical intelligence insights (like “Trident” database or the President’s Daily Brief), along with historical and academic references, make the episode rich for both casual listeners and security or intelligence enthusiasts.

Final Thoughts

The episode closes on the sobering reality: Authoritarian regimes can appear fragile yet persist for years; intelligence analysts rely on “pillars” to track regime health, but revolutions remain inherently unpredictable, especially where public and private beliefs are misaligned. The discussion tees up Part 2, which will revisit past failed and successful predictions by Western intelligence agencies—and what those lessons mean for Iran’s future.

For more in-depth discussion, listeners are invited to hear Episode 2 and a bonus interview with Iranian expert Arash Azizi, available to Declassified Club members.