Podcast Summary: "The Rest Is Classified"

Episode 128: Al Qaeda’s Deadliest Plot: CIA vs Pakistan (Ep 3)
Release Date: February 16, 2026
Hosts: David McCloskey & Gordon Corera

Overview

This episode delves deep into the critical, late-stage investigation of the 2006 transatlantic airliner plot orchestrated by Al Qaeda, which involved plans to bring down multiple US-bound planes using liquid bombs. The episode explores the tense, multilayered cooperation and rivalry between the UK’s MI5 and US intelligence agencies (CIA/FBI) as well as the dramatic intervention of Pakistan’s ISI. It offers a behind-the-scenes look at the intense surveillance, political calculations, international pressure, and ultimately the unilateral actions that nearly derailed years of covert work.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Caught in the Final Act: MI5’s Surveillance Operation

• MI5 has intensive 24/7 surveillance on plot leader Abdullah Ahmed Ali and associates; they've discovered liquid bomb-making activity intended for use on planes in early August 2006.
• Operation Codename: “Overt” (“Terrible for a covert operation,” Gordon jokes [01:44]).
• The scale: 28 surveillance teams deployed, outstripping MI5’s normal resources.
• "It must have felt like half the population of Walthamstow was either being followed or following someone." – Gordon Corera [04:10]
• MI5 teams are surviving on “Diet Coke and Monster Munch” due to the pressure of the operation, leading to a humorous detour on British snacks. [02:08–03:04]

2. Balancing Evidence vs Prevention: Why Not Arrest Early?

• Despite extensive evidence (martyrdom videos, bomb materials, flight research), MI5 holds off on arrests to gather maximal evidence, ensuring any prosecution could convict all involved.
• UK’s unique legal landscape: MI5 cannot arrest—only police can, working closely with Crown Prosecution Service to prepare cases. [07:27–08:57]
• Stakes: If the plot succeeds, consequences would be catastrophic—"If this goes wrong, I'm out of a job, you're out of a job, and the government will fall." – John Reid, Home Secretary, via plaque in MI5 [11:12]
• The operation is politically sensitive; any failure would have extraordinary political fallout, particularly within the "special relationship" between UK and US.

3. US Perspective: The Post-9/11 Mindset

• By early August 2006, the US is panicked and considers the threat existential.
• The US intelligence community, still haunted by missing 9/11, presses for early action—"if there's a 1% chance... we want to eliminate that 1% chance." – Gordon [15:36]
• High-level briefings: Fran Townsend (Homeland Security Advisor) briefs President Bush daily. Bush repeatedly asks, "Are you comfortable letting the planes fly every day?" [21:31]
• The US independently tests the bomb’s feasibility using Gatorade, confirming that liquid explosives could bypass scanners and succeed in bringing down an aircraft. [13:51–14:06]
• "We just want to stop this plot. I don't give a shit if it blows the case." – Fran Townsend, as quoted in source material [22:00]

4. Interagency & International Tensions

• MI5/MI6 want patience to secure robust convictions and map the entire network, while CIA and the US administration demand immediate arrests to eliminate any risk—escalating into heated, direct confrontations (“eyeball to eyeball confrontations,” per Andy Heyman, UK police chief [22:30])
• "We thought we'd managed to persuade them to hold back so we could develop new opportunities and get more evidence… But I was never convinced they were content with that position." – Andy Heyman [22:30]
• Underneath professional cooperation, deep cultural and operational divides persist—UK cautious and process-oriented; US prioritizing disruption over courtroom standards.

5. The Pakistani Angle & Unilateral US Action

• The plot’s external coordinator, Rashid Rauf, is based in Pakistan. CIA Director Michael Hayden and CIA Ops Chief Jose Rodriguez visit Islamabad in early August.
• The UK is actively requesting the Pakistanis not to arrest Rauf yet to keep surveillance intact. Despite this, Rodriguez greenlights the ISI arresting Rauf after a brief consultation:
  • "Would you support us if we captured Ralph right now?"—Kayani (ISI boss)
  • "Absolutely. We want this bad guy." – Jose Rodriguez [33:29]
• Rodriguez’s decision stuns MI5/MI6, who are left scrambling as a critical communication node in the plot suddenly goes dark—potentially accelerating the plot or driving other conspirators underground.
• "I think these memoirs are disguising the true thing of what happened, which is, I think the Americans decided they wanted to do it rather than the Pakistanis coming: 'Oh, hey, there's an opportunity.'" – Gordon [36:08]
• The capture becomes a flashpoint, with both sides blaming each other. CIA headquarters is furious; the Brits see the trust breached and their plans upended without warning. [40:44–42:53]
• The hosts highlight the murky realities of intelligence liaison work, the lack of a single, authoritative account, and the personal dynamics that can lead to international incidents.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On MI5’s Commitment and Scale:

• "28 surveillance teams are working this case... it must have felt like half the population of Walthamstow was either being followed or following someone." – Gordon [03:54]

On Political Stakes:

• “If this goes wrong, I'm out of a job, you're out of a job, and the government will fall.” – John Reid, quoted by David [11:12]

On US Post-9/11 Anxiety:

• "I think the US mentality is very much like if there's a 1% chance of this happening, we want to eliminate that 1% chance." – Gordon [15:36]
• "We just want to stop this plot. I don't give a shit if it blows the case." – Fran Townsend, via Saki Peretz [22:00]

On CIA’s Decision-Making:

• "I made an on the spot decision. Absolutely. We want this bad guy." – Jose Rodriguez [33:29]
• “I don’t want to be in front of a commission or a congressional inquiry explaining why I didn’t take the opportunity.” – Rodriguez, via David [34:38]

On International Frustrations:

• “The Brits are the junior partner. Americans are producing more intelligence. So the Brits to some extent have to kind of deal with it because they know they need to be in that relationship.” – Gordon [18:00]
• "We thought we'd managed to persuade them to hold back so we could develop new opportunities...I was never convinced they were content with that position." – Andy Heyman, UK police chief [22:30]

Comic Relief:

• McCloskey’s confusion over Monster Munch offers a light-hearted cross-cultural moment about British snacks:
  • "Is this some horrendous British snack?" – David [02:08]
  • "I bought some Monster Munch... This is roast beef flavored. It's paw-shaped... There's this friendly pink character on the front who looks insane." – David [02:19]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Liquid bomb plot & MI5’s surveillance: [00:41–04:53]
• Scale and pressures of the UK operation: [03:38–04:53]
• Why not arrest immediately? Evidence vs. prevention: [07:24–09:22]
• Transatlantic relations and political stakes: [10:19–12:28]
• US risk posture and Bush Administration pressure: [13:24–16:42]
• Legal and operational differences in UK/US CT approaches: [17:14–18:19]
• Tensions with leaks and past operations: [18:19–19:10]
• Disagreement over timing arrests (MI5 vs. CIA): [19:10–21:05]
• Intense pressure on MI5 from the US: [21:31–22:22]
• On-the-ground deliberations in Pakistan: [27:03–34:15]
• The Rashid Rauf arrest and fallout: [36:08–43:57]

Tone & Language

The episode is rich with dry wit, cultural contrasts, and sharp asides. While the subject matter is grave, the hosts balance tension and levity—especially in their banter about international snack foods and cross-Atlantic misunderstandings. Their tone is forthright, skeptical of official narratives, and determined to pull back the curtain on intelligence operations, with a prevailing sense of just how high the stakes were.

Conclusion

This episode vividly illustrates the high-wire act of international intelligence cooperation—where political stakes, cultural differences, and diverging risk tolerances can fracture even the closest alliance. The US’s unilateral move to arrest Rashid Rauf in Pakistan, disregarding UK requests for patience, not only exposes the strains in the “special relationship” but also demonstrates how the shadowy world of espionage can hinge on individual personalities, national priorities, and momentary decisions under immense pressure. The story sets up next episode’s exploration of the fallout and ultimate resolution of this global intelligence crisis.

For further detail and declassified perspectives, check out the hosts’ interviews with Jonathan Evans (MI5) in the bonus Declassified Club episodes!