The Rest Is Classified: Episode 32 - "Putin’s War: The CIA Warns Zelensky"

Release Date: March 26, 2025
Hosts: David McCloskey & Gordon Corera

Introduction

In Episode 32 of The Rest Is Classified, hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve deep into the intricate web of intelligence, diplomacy, and deception surrounding the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Titled "Putin’s War: The CIA Warns Zelensky," this episode unpacks the CIA's efforts to inform Ukrainian leadership about imminent threats, the challenges faced in convincing allies, and the broader implications of intelligence dissemination in international conflicts.

Context and Background

David McCloskey opens the discussion by referencing Gordon’s earlier article from February 2022, written amidst escalating tensions in Kyiv. He sets the stage by summarizing the critical meeting in the Oval Office where President Joe Biden and his team analyzed intelligence indicating Russia's preparation for an invasion of Ukraine. This meeting culminated in CIA Director Bill Burns’ mission to Moscow to confront Vladimir Putin, where Burns left more concerned than reassured about Putin’s war intentions.

“I think we've got to now break into two parts... how well will the Ukrainians perform? How well will the Russian military perform?”
[03:14] – David McCloskey

Intelligence Sharing and Diplomatic Efforts

Gordon Corera elaborates on the strategic dissemination of intelligence among Western allies. Beginning with the G20 meeting in Rome, President Biden shared critical intelligence with leaders from the UK, France, and Germany. This included secure briefings led by Avril Haines, then Director of National Intelligence, aimed at unifying allies against potential Russian aggression.

“They're trying to say this is not a political judgment by the United States. You're not being briefed by politicians, you're being briefed by analysts on hard data...”
[06:16] – David McCloskey

The hosts discuss the meticulous efforts to ensure that allies received actionable intelligence without exposing sensitive sources. This balancing act was crucial in maintaining trust while attempting to galvanize a united front against Russia.

Challenges in Convincing Allies and Ukraine

Despite robust intelligence, skepticism persisted among key allies and within Ukraine itself. McCloskey recounts historical parallels, notably the failed intelligence around Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, which sown doubt among European partners. This skepticism extended to Ukraine's leadership, particularly President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who questioned the imminence and scale of the threat.

“The Ukrainians have been penetrated by Russian intelligence... the CIA are not going to give away their sources to Ukraine very easily.”
[13:43] – David McCloskey

Gordon emphasizes the psychological and strategic hurdles in persuading Ukraine's leadership, who were wary of inciting panic and destabilization. Zelenskyy's dual role as a leader with low approval ratings and a public figure wary of mass mobilization added layers of complexity to the CIA's warning efforts.

Strategic Declassification of Intelligence

A pivotal moment in the episode is the discussion on the Biden administration’s decision to publicly disclose certain intelligence details to preempt Russian false-flag operations. Drawing historical comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis, where satellite imagery was used to showcase Soviet missile buildup, McCloskey and Corera explore how strategic declassification serves both as a deterrent and a narrative-shaping tool.

“They want to disrupt it... it's not stopping the invasion, but they are disrupting the effectiveness of the Russian intelligence plans.”
[39:45] – Gordon Corera

The hosts analyze how making intelligence public helps in building a historical record of culpability, ensuring that the origins of the conflict are clearly attributed to Russian actions.

Historical Comparisons and False-Flag Operations

McCloskey draws parallels between Russia’s planned false-flag justifications for invading Ukraine and Germany’s 1939 Gleiwitz incident used to justify the invasion of Poland. This historical lens underscores the recurring tactic of fabricating pretexts to legitimize aggressive actions.

“The idea was that they were going to create the image that Russian speaking civilians in these areas had been attacked by the Ukrainians...”
[38:34] – David McCloskey

This segment highlights the intricate planning behind such operations and the critical role of intelligence in preempting and countering these narratives.

Ukrainian Leadership and Response

The episode sheds light on the internal dynamics within Ukraine, particularly the divisions between political leadership and military officials like General Valeri Zaluzhny. McCloskey notes Zaluzhny’s covert preparations to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, reflecting a nuanced understanding of the impending threat despite overarching skepticism from Zelenskyy.

“He was still making preparations and crucially, he will be moving air defences to hiding places...”
[31:40] – Gordon Corera

This internal stratification within Ukrainian leadership emphasizes the complexity of national responses to foreign intelligence and threat assessments.

Insights into US and UK Policies

Gordon Corera discusses the strategic mindset of US and UK intelligence agencies, which prepared Ukraine primarily for insurgency-style resistance rather than conventional warfare. This approach parallels past CIA operations, such as arming the mujahideen in Afghanistan, and reflects a tactical expectation of the conflict’s nature.

“The best thing they can do is support effectively resistance insurgency rather than an actual full out armed conflict.”
[26:03] – Gordon Corera

McCloskey adds that this policy might have underestimated the scale and nature of Russia’s military capabilities, leading to misaligned support strategies for Ukraine.

Implications of Intelligence Dissemination

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of declassifying and publicly sharing intelligence. McCloskey expresses concerns about the potential erosion of trust among intelligence assets and the chilling effect on future recruitment if sources and methods are exposed or compromised.

“You can imagine a world where there's a chilling effect on recruitment way down the line...”
[20:05] – David McCloskey

Corera concurs, noting the delicate balance between transparent intelligence sharing and safeguarding operational integrity.

Conclusion and Teasers for Next Episode

As the episode draws to a close, McCloskey and Corera reflect on the effectiveness of intelligence strategies in the lead-up to the invasion. They ponder whether the public dissemination of intelligence successfully disrupted Russian plans and maintained international support.

“It makes it much harder for Putin to sell this outside of Russia or even inside Ukraine.”
[38:34] – David McCloskey

They tease the next episode, which will explore how intelligence and strategic disclosures influenced the initial battles of the war in Ukraine, setting the stage for the conflict’s unfolding dynamics.

Notable Quotes

• “It's time to bring it into the light.”
  – David McCloskey, reflecting the podcast’s mission to illuminate the shadowy world of espionage.
  [02:13]

• “Oh sheet, Arm and Hammer. More power to you.”
  – Gordon Corera, humorously dismissing an advertisement segment.
  [00:53]

• “You can get Disney plus and Hulu together for just 2.99a month.”
  – David McCloskey, highlighting the episode's initial advertising content which is later omitted from the summary.
  [00:00]

Key Takeaways

1. Intelligence as a Diplomatic Tool: The CIA and Western allies utilized detailed intelligence to diplomatically warn and prepare Ukraine for possible Russian aggression, though skepticism among allies and in Ukraine complicated these efforts.

2. Strategic Declassification: Publicly disclosing certain intelligence details served as both a deterrent and a means to control the narrative, aiming to prevent false-flag justifications for Russian invasion.

3. Historical Parallels: The episode draws significant parallels between current intelligence strategies and historical events like the Cuban Missile Crisis and Germany’s Gleiwitz incident, emphasizing recurring tactics in statecraft and war justification.

4. Internal Ukrainian Dynamics: Divergent responses within Ukrainian leadership, particularly between Zelenskyy and military officials like General Zaluzhny, highlight the complexities in national responses to intelligence warnings.

5. Long-term Implications: The episode underscores the delicate balance between effective intelligence dissemination and the safeguarding of sources and methods, with potential long-term impacts on trust and recruitment within intelligence communities.

Final Thoughts

Through a comprehensive exploration of intelligence operations, diplomatic maneuvers, and historical analogies, Episode 32 of The Rest Is Classified provides an insightful analysis of the CIA's efforts to preemptively warn Ukraine of Russian invasion plans. Hosts McCloskey and Corera adeptly navigate the multifaceted challenges of intelligence work in a high-stakes geopolitical landscape, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the shadowy interplay between espionage and international conflict.

Stay tuned for the next episode, where the hosts will examine how intelligence and strategic disclosures shaped the initial battles of the war in Ukraine, further unraveling the complexities of modern espionage and warfare.