The Rest Is Classified: Episode 33 - Putin’s War: How Russian Intelligence Failed

Release Date: March 30, 2025

Hosts:

• David McCloskey: Former CIA analyst turned spy novelist
• Gordon Corera: Veteran security correspondent

In Episode 33 of The Rest Is Classified, hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve deep into the intelligence mishaps that preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Through a detailed examination of intelligence assessments, diplomatic interactions, and critical military engagements, the episode sheds light on how Russian espionage and strategic planning ultimately faltered, impacting the course of the conflict.

1. Intelligence Assessments and Misjudgments

The discussion begins with an exploration of how Western intelligence agencies, including the CIA and MI6, interpreted Vladimir Putin’s intentions. Despite accumulating signs of an impending invasion, convincing allies and Ukraine’s leadership remained a significant challenge.

Gordon Corera (04:16): “The CIA, I think in particular, has had a really hard time convincing its allies, convincing even the Ukrainians that this invasion is now going to happen.”

McCloskey emphasizes the complexity of intelligence dissemination, noting that while the CIA deemed an invasion likely, allies like France remained skeptical due to differing intelligence insights.

David McCloskey (06:27): “The nitty gritty of this intelligence picture is so fascinating because that's the very stuff that the US is having to... protect the sources and methods.”

2. Emmanuel Macron’s Diplomatic Stance

A significant portion of the episode focuses on French President Emmanuel Macron’s role. Based on his nation’s intelligence assessments, Macron believed that Putin might be bluffing, adopting a stance of coercive diplomacy to extract concessions regarding Ukraine’s relationship with NATO.

Emmanuel Macron (05:34): “Although we do love a few cheap shots at our French compadres on this podcast...”

McCloskey discusses Macron’s efforts to negotiate peace, juxtaposing them against the CIA director Bill Burns’ more dire assessments of Putin’s resolve.

David McCloskey (05:34): “Macron, I know, but alas, it's ineffective.”

3. Escalation and the Battle for Hostomel Airport

The conversation transitions to the pivotal Battle for Hostomel Airport on the morning of February 24, 2022. McCloskey provides a vivid recount of the tactical maneuvers and intelligence forecasts surrounding this crucial engagement.

Gordon Corera (25:17): “...the essence of the Russian plan was... take the capital fast, removing the government and installing a new one without prolonged conflict.”

Hostomel Airport was identified as a strategic asset, potentially allowing Russian forces to swiftly decapitate Ukraine’s leadership. However, Ukrainian defenders, despite being outnumbered, managed to delay Russian advances, disrupting their initial war plans.

Gordon Corera (26:34): “…the Ukrainians are holding the Russians off from being able to land as quickly as they thought they would.”

4. Critical Intelligence Oversights

A recurring theme is the failure of Western intelligence to adequately convey the severity and immediacy of the threat. The episode highlights how limited access to sensitive intercepts left leaders like Macron doubting the intelligence reports, thereby delaying decisive action.

Emmanuel Macron (09:29): “If you are Emmanuel Macron and you don't have access to the intercepts or the very sensitive human intelligence that shows that Putin intends to do this...”

This disconnect is further illustrated by the chaotic response during the initial invasion, where even high-ranking officials were caught off guard despite prior warnings.

Gordon Corera (23:59): “...the people around them went from going, why are you being so hysterical about this possible invasion? To going, why weren't you more hysterical about this invasion?”

5. The Aftermath and Long-Term Implications

The episode concludes by reflecting on the broader implications of these intelligence failures. McCloskey and Corera discuss how the initial miscalculations influenced not only the early stages of the war but also the prolonged resistance by Ukrainian forces over the ensuing years.

Gordon Corera (33:46): “...the Ukrainians are going to be able to fight back and are going to show the willingness to defend their territory.”

McCloskey underscores the importance of accurate intelligence in shaping defense strategies, suggesting that the battle for Hostomel Airport was a turning point that prevented the rapid Russian success initially envisioned.

David McCloskey (25:30): “So it's a kind of power play in a show to them.”

6. Teaser for the Next Episode

As the episode wraps up, McCloskey and Corera hint at examining the cascading effects of the Hostomel battle, including the movement of Russian armor towards Kyiv and the ongoing challenges faced by Ukrainian leadership.

David McCloskey (35:16): “...we will look at this massive column of Russian armor that's heading toward Kiev, what in the world Volodymyr Zelensky has been up to...”

Key Takeaways:

• Intelligence Discrepancies: Differing interpretations among Western intelligence agencies led to delayed and ineffective diplomatic efforts to thwart the invasion.

• Strategic Miscalculations: The failure to anticipate the multi-pronged nature of the invasion allowed Russian forces to execute their plans with unexpected speed and coordination.

• Impact of Tactical Engagements: The Ukrainian defense at Hostomel Airport exemplified how localized resistance can disrupt larger strategic objectives, altering the course of conflict.

• Long-Term Consequences: Initial intelligence failures had enduring effects on the war’s trajectory, emphasizing the critical role of accurate and timely information in international security.

Notable Quotes:

• Gordon Corera (04:16): “The CIA, I think in particular, has had a really hard time convincing its allies, convincing even the Ukrainians that this invasion is now going to happen.”

• David McCloskey (05:34): “Macron... thinks he can deliver a deal.”

• Emmanuel Macron (09:29): “If you are Emmanuel Macron and you don't have access to the intercepts... you can doubt at this point.”

• Gordon Corera (23:59): “Why weren't you more hysterical about this invasion?”

This episode of The Rest Is Classified provides an insightful analysis of the complex interplay between intelligence assessments, diplomatic efforts, and military strategy that shaped one of the most significant conflicts of the 21st century. By dissecting the failures and successes within Russian intelligence operations, McCloskey and Corera offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of how espionage and tactical decisions can alter geopolitical landscapes.