The Rest Is Classified: Episode 34 - "Putin's War: The Battle for Kyiv (Ep 4)"

Release Date: April 1, 2025
Hosts: David McCloskey and Gordon Corera

1. Introduction to the Battle for Kyiv

In this pivotal episode of The Rest Is Classified, hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve deep into the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, focusing on the intense battle for Kyiv. They explore how intelligence operations, leadership decisions, and on-the-ground strategies intertwined to shape the initial defense of Ukraine's capital.

2. Zelensky's Leadership and Transformation

The episode begins with a recount of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's resolute decision to remain in Kyiv amidst the chaos of the invasion. McCloskey narrates Zelensky's initial disbelief and the subsequent rallying of his people:

[03:16] Gordon Corera: "The fight is here."

This phrase, though possibly misattributed, encapsulates Zelensky's determination. The hosts discuss Zelensky's transformation from a politician to a wartime leader, highlighting his shift in appearance and behavior to embody solidarity with Ukrainian fighters.

[05:19] Gordon Corera: "He changes into the camo out on the streets... it's about solidarity with the fighters rather than looking like a politician."

3. Intelligence's Role in Early War Efforts

McCloskey and Corera emphasize the critical role of intelligence from agencies like the CIA and MI6 in the initial hours and days of the war. They describe how Zelensky received information predicting Russian strategies, including assassination attempts by the Wagner mercenary group.

[04:22] Unnamed Speaker: "CIA had passed intelligence saying there were assassination teams out there looking for him... Teams from the Wagner mercenary group."

They recount a tense moment when Zelensky's bodyguards swiftly moved him to a bunker upon sensing imminent danger, underscoring the effectiveness of intelligence in safeguarding leadership.

4. Russian Intelligence Failures

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the profound intelligence failures on the Russian side. The hosts analyze how Russian intelligence misjudged Ukraine's resilience and Zelensky's intent to stay and fight.

[16:26] Volodymyr Zelensky: "They got Ukraine wrong... linguistic and cultural connections... they didn’t understand the dynamics."

They explore the breakdown within the FSB's Fifth Service, which failed to effectively execute its plans, including infiltration and assassination missions aimed at decapitating Ukrainian leadership.

5. Impact of Intelligence on the War Effort

The hosts delve into the tactical advantages provided by intelligence sharing. They highlight how Western intelligence support, including satellite imagery and targeting data, empowered Ukrainian forces to effectively counter Russian movements.

[12:35] Gordon Corera: "The Javelin anti-tank weapons and NLAWs supplied by the Brits... they take out the first and last vehicles... columns are stuck."

This section underscores how intelligence not only informed strategic decisions but also boosted Ukrainian morale through visible successes against Russian armor.

6. Political Decisions Shaped by Intelligence

McCloskey and Corera discuss the interplay between intelligence assessments and political decision-making in the West. They critique how overestimation of Russian capabilities and underestimation of Ukrainian resilience influenced the extent and manner of Western support.

[25:35] Volodymyr Zelensky: "The CIA to say, look, Putin is being optimistic, but he's probably going to get most of what he wants in a couple of months."

The conversation touches upon the delicate balance Western leaders had to maintain to avoid escalation while still providing meaningful support to Ukraine.

7. Conclusion and Future Implications

In wrapping up, the hosts reflect on the enduring lessons from the Battle for Kyiv. They emphasize the necessity of accurate intelligence, the importance of adaptable leadership, and the critical role of international support in modern conflicts.

[33:12] Volodymyr Zelensky: "What it is, is it provides a country and its policymakers with an information advantage... That's the goal of the intelligence."

David McCloskey concludes by highlighting the ongoing need for robust intelligence operations to navigate the complexities of warfare and geopolitical strategies.

Notable Quotes

• Gordon Corera [03:16]: "The fight is here."
• Gordon Corera [05:19]: "He changes into the camo out on the streets... it's about solidarity with the fighters rather than looking like a politician."
• Unnamed Speaker [04:22]: "CIA had passed intelligence saying there were assassination teams out there looking for him... Teams from the Wagner mercenary group."
• Volodymyr Zelensky [16:26]: "They got Ukraine wrong... linguistic and cultural connections... they didn’t understand the dynamics."
• Gordon Corera [12:35]: "The Javelin anti-tank weapons and NLAWs supplied by the Brits... they take out the first and last vehicles... columns are stuck."
• Volodymyr Zelensky [25:35]: "The CIA to say, look, Putin is being optimistic, but he's probably going to get most of what he wants in a couple of months."
• Volodymyr Zelensky [33:12]: "What it is, is it provides a country and its policymakers with an information advantage... That's the goal of the intelligence."

This comprehensive analysis in "Putin's War: The Battle for Kyiv" offers listeners a nuanced understanding of how intelligence, leadership, and strategic decisions converged to influence the course of the conflict in Ukraine's capital. For those seeking to grasp the intricate dynamics of modern espionage and warfare, this episode provides invaluable insights.