34. Putin's War: The Battle for Kyiv (Ep 4)

Summary

The Rest Is Classified: Episode 34 - "Putin's War: The Battle for Kyiv (Ep 4)"

Release Date: April 1, 2025
Hosts: David McCloskey and Gordon Corera

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1. Introduction to the Battle for Kyiv

In this pivotal episode of The Rest Is Classified, hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve deep into the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, focusing on the intense battle for Kyiv. They explore how intelligence operations, leadership decisions, and on-the-ground strategies intertwined to shape the initial defense of Ukraine's capital.

2. Zelensky's Leadership and Transformation

The episode begins with a recount of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's resolute decision to remain in Kyiv amidst the chaos of the invasion. McCloskey narrates Zelensky's initial disbelief and the subsequent rallying of his people:

[03:16] Gordon Corera: "The fight is here."

This phrase, though possibly misattributed, encapsulates Zelensky's determination. The hosts discuss Zelensky's transformation from a politician to a wartime leader, highlighting his shift in appearance and behavior to embody solidarity with Ukrainian fighters.

[05:19] Gordon Corera: "He changes into the camo out on the streets... it's about solidarity with the fighters rather than looking like a politician."

3. Intelligence's Role in Early War Efforts

McCloskey and Corera emphasize the critical role of intelligence from agencies like the CIA and MI6 in the initial hours and days of the war. They describe how Zelensky received information predicting Russian strategies, including assassination attempts by the Wagner mercenary group.

[04:22] Unnamed Speaker: "CIA had passed intelligence saying there were assassination teams out there looking for him... Teams from the Wagner mercenary group."

They recount a tense moment when Zelensky's bodyguards swiftly moved him to a bunker upon sensing imminent danger, underscoring the effectiveness of intelligence in safeguarding leadership.

4. Russian Intelligence Failures

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the profound intelligence failures on the Russian side. The hosts analyze how Russian intelligence misjudged Ukraine's resilience and Zelensky's intent to stay and fight.

[16:26] Volodymyr Zelensky: "They got Ukraine wrong... linguistic and cultural connections... they didn’t understand the dynamics."

They explore the breakdown within the FSB's Fifth Service, which failed to effectively execute its plans, including infiltration and assassination missions aimed at decapitating Ukrainian leadership.

5. Impact of Intelligence on the War Effort

The hosts delve into the tactical advantages provided by intelligence sharing. They highlight how Western intelligence support, including satellite imagery and targeting data, empowered Ukrainian forces to effectively counter Russian movements.

[12:35] Gordon Corera: "The Javelin anti-tank weapons and NLAWs supplied by the Brits... they take out the first and last vehicles... columns are stuck."

This section underscores how intelligence not only informed strategic decisions but also boosted Ukrainian morale through visible successes against Russian armor.

6. Political Decisions Shaped by Intelligence

McCloskey and Corera discuss the interplay between intelligence assessments and political decision-making in the West. They critique how overestimation of Russian capabilities and underestimation of Ukrainian resilience influenced the extent and manner of Western support.

[25:35] Volodymyr Zelensky: "The CIA to say, look, Putin is being optimistic, but he's probably going to get most of what he wants in a couple of months."

The conversation touches upon the delicate balance Western leaders had to maintain to avoid escalation while still providing meaningful support to Ukraine.

7. Conclusion and Future Implications

In wrapping up, the hosts reflect on the enduring lessons from the Battle for Kyiv. They emphasize the necessity of accurate intelligence, the importance of adaptable leadership, and the critical role of international support in modern conflicts.

[33:12] Volodymyr Zelensky: "What it is, is it provides a country and its policymakers with an information advantage... That's the goal of the intelligence."

David McCloskey concludes by highlighting the ongoing need for robust intelligence operations to navigate the complexities of warfare and geopolitical strategies.

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Notable Quotes

• Gordon Corera [03:16]: "The fight is here."
• Gordon Corera [05:19]: "He changes into the camo out on the streets... it's about solidarity with the fighters rather than looking like a politician."
• Unnamed Speaker [04:22]: "CIA had passed intelligence saying there were assassination teams out there looking for him... Teams from the Wagner mercenary group."
• Volodymyr Zelensky [16:26]: "They got Ukraine wrong... linguistic and cultural connections... they didn’t understand the dynamics."
• Gordon Corera [12:35]: "The Javelin anti-tank weapons and NLAWs supplied by the Brits... they take out the first and last vehicles... columns are stuck."
• Volodymyr Zelensky [25:35]: "The CIA to say, look, Putin is being optimistic, but he's probably going to get most of what he wants in a couple of months."
• Volodymyr Zelensky [33:12]: "What it is, is it provides a country and its policymakers with an information advantage... That's the goal of the intelligence."

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This comprehensive analysis in "Putin's War: The Battle for Kyiv" offers listeners a nuanced understanding of how intelligence, leadership, and strategic decisions converged to influence the course of the conflict in Ukraine's capital. For those seeking to grasp the intricate dynamics of modern espionage and warfare, this episode provides invaluable insights.

Transcript

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[Gordon Carrera]

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[Gordon Carrera]

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[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Good evening, everyone. I want everyone to know that we are still in the capitol, in our home.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The leader of the presidential party is here.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

The head of the presidential office is here.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Prime Minister is here. The President is here.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

We are all here.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Our soldiers are here. Citizens are here. We are all here protecting our independence and our country.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And it will stay like that. Glory to the heroes. Glory to Ukraine. Welcome to the rest is classified. I'm David McCloskey.

[Gordon Carrera]

And I'm Gordon Carrera.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And that was not Vladimir Putin. That was Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, speaking in just the hours after.

[Unnamed Speaker]

His country had been invaded by the Russians in 2022.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

He is, of course, saying that he is going to stay in the capital.

[Unnamed Speaker]

He is not going to flee, and.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

He is trying to rally his public.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And his military to stand up and fight against the Russians.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And Gordon, I guess, Roby last left President Zelensky. He had been woken in the early hours of February 24, 2022, told that the Russians were invading. You can hear the sound of missiles, rocket fire outside. And we covered in the last episode the sort of momentous battle for Hostomel Airport just outside Kyiv. The role that intelligence played in that battle. And now we are going back, I guess, to look at Zelensky and really how he starts to absorb all of this information coming in, some of it from the CIA, some of it from MI6, some of it from his own intelligence services to really shape and direct the first hours and days of this war effort.

[Gordon Carrera]

That's right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And it's a transformation for Zelensky because.

[Gordon Carrera]

He hadn't believed that the invasion was coming as we've heard before. In the opening hours, people are telling him to flee. I mean, President Biden is advising him.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To flee and offering him help to do this. He gets frustrated.

[Gordon Carrera]

Now the famous quote is, the fight is here.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I need ammunition, not a ride.

[Gordon Carrera]

Now, that he may not have actually said that.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

That is disappointing, isn't it, to say that. Did someone say it?

[Unnamed Speaker]

And then attributed to him or.

It's been attributed, but a few of.

[Gordon Carrera]

His aides have said it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But the sentiment, I think, is right. And as you know, you were reading that message. He records that on a mobile phone.

[Gordon Carrera]

Out on the street the night after his country has been invaded. The point being, we are still here.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We have not fled.

[Gordon Carrera]

And that's important because one of the things we talked about was the fact.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That the CIA had passed intelligence saying there were assassination teams out there looking for him. There were teams already in the capital undercover, trying to take him down. Teams from the Wagner mercenary group.

[Gordon Carrera]

Chechen assassins, it's thought, sleeper cells who'd.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Been there ready and been waiting in.

[Gordon Carrera]

Safe houses with missions to help take the capital, but specifically to kill Zelenskyy himself. And it looks like it was a pretty close run thing. At one point, his bodyguards burst into the Ukrainian equivalent of the situation room because they think some of these assassins.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Are perhaps only a few blocks away, and they bundle Zelensk down into a bunker.

[Gordon Carrera]

And it's interesting because I have a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Really big bunker complex under Kyiv. I've been to Kyiv.

[Gordon Carrera]

I remember asking someone from the Ukrainian government, you know, how big are the bunkers?

[Unnamed Speaker]

And I was kind of asking, could.

[Gordon Carrera]

I have a look?

[Unnamed Speaker]

And I think the answer was no.

[Gordon Carrera]

But they're massive.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And these were built, I think, in.

[Gordon Carrera]

Soviet days, in case of nuclear war.

[Unnamed Speaker]

For their leadership to be able to go down there.

[Gordon Carrera]

So I think they're really deep, large.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Underground bunker systems into which he can retreat.

[Gordon Carrera]

But that's why that video of him going out on the mobile phone and saying, look, we're here, is so important, because he's making himself visible.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Also, I think he's given secure sat.

[Gordon Carrera]

Phones so the Russians can't track him. So there is a real sense that he's in danger and that there's danger around him in the capital. He also famously changes out from his suit into those camo fatigues, the kind of army fleece that becomes so familiar. And he stops shaving as much.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It's part of a visual transformation, isn't.

[Gordon Carrera]

It, about solidarity with the fighters rather than looking like a politician.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

This is an interesting moment where there's so many different, I guess, systemic things going on here.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right. But this is a point where you'd.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Say the actual personality of the guy matters a lot.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Because he could have fled. And in fact, it seems like that was probably the base case in a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Lot of Western capitals was assuming that.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

If this thing got too bad, he was just going to get out and he could have done that. And I think that would not have been a surprise. But he makes a different choice, right? He makes the choice to stay and to fight. And, you know, even though it's disappointing, he did not say, I need ammo, not a ride. To your point, the vibe is very much that is that he's going to stick this thing out and really attempt to push the, the Russians out of Ukraine. Now, there's an interesting counterfactual, I should.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Say that if the Russians had managed to kill him.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And by the way, this is like right out of a, a crazy spy.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Thriller because you literally do have teams.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Of Chechen and Wagner assassins sort of roaming the capital looking for Volodymyr Zelensky. Right. And they don't get him. I mean, you do have to wonder.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If they get him, if they get.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Significant portions of the Ukrainian leadership, if.

[Unnamed Speaker]

This part of the Russian plan succeeds, maybe all of a sudden this doesn't end up looking so crazy three years.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Later from the standpoint of the Russian behavior, that maybe Ukraine does sort of melt away if they're able to get.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To the leadership and they're not able to.

[Gordon Carrera]

I think that's right. I think leadership in wartime matters, I.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Mean, you think of Churchill in World War II and the role he played.

[Gordon Carrera]

In rallying the nation, in that case on radio and sending out a message about standing firm in Britain in its darkest hour.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And Zelenskyy grows into the role, I.

[Gordon Carrera]

Think, in that way, which is really interesting.

[Unnamed Speaker]

One of the ways I think, of course, is he is an actor and a comedian. Now, on the one hand, that had led people like Putin to dismiss him.

[Gordon Carrera]

As being a lightwe, but I do think those skills of being an actor, a TV producer, if you like, make.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Him understand how to project himself at this moment. He's also got the instinctive understanding of modern communications, of things like social media, of the use of a mobile phone, video, in a way, for instance, Putin has no idea about, you know, Putin, it's all the traditional stuff standing in.

[Gordon Carrera]

Front of TV cameras.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

He's sitting at long tables writing 5,000 word essays about the unity of Russia and Ukraine. Yeah, he's not on TikTok, whereas Zelensky.

[Gordon Carrera]

Is in his camo out on the streets going, I'm still here filming on a mobile phone.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So that generational and cultural difference, I.

[Gordon Carrera]

Think, becomes very important for Ukraine in its ability to maintain communications within the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Country, but also to build alliances and support on the outside.

[Gordon Carrera]

Because Zelensky plays a huge role in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Becoming this figurehead of resistance, and it is a transformative role role for him.

[Gordon Carrera]

So I think it's really an interesting case study of where it's the right figure at the right time to exploit.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Even modern technology and the power of.

[Gordon Carrera]

Communications to help galvanize support for his country.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yeah.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And I wonder, going back to the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Intelligence side of this. So there is a particular species of analyst at CIA called a leadership analyst.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And one of the products that they produce is what's known as an lp, a leadership profile. And it's usually a couple pages of the relevant sort of biographical information on a world leader and usually an assessment of their psychology.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There's input from the agency doctors and psychologists into these things. I actually think they're great reads, which.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I wouldn't say of every analytic product at the CIA, but they're very interesting. And I have wondered in the years since what Volodymyr Zelenskyy's LP read in February of 2022. Because you have to think that the actions are sort of trying to predict what a politician like him might do.

[Unnamed Speaker]

When presented with a situation like this.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

You're sort of reaching the limits of.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Human cognition in many ways.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Because Zelenskyy probably also may not have had any idea that he actually possessed, frankly, the courage and the determination to stay.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There must have been a PDB written in the run up to the war, trying to predict what Zelensky might do.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Or at least putting scenarios out there. And you have to think based on the way maybe Burns interacted with him, or certainly what Biden said, that the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Base case was that he was going to run.

He was more stubborn. Interesting enough.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, going back to that issue.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of he changes into the camos.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of course, this becomes an issue in that recent meeting where he goes to the Oval Office to meet President Trump and J.D. vance, and he's not wearing a suit, and it becomes a big deal. And of course, people at the time.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Were like, well, why is he not wearing a suit? You know, why doesn't he seem willing to do it?

[Gordon Carrera]

He dresses slightly smarter for it, but actually it wasn't a sign of disrespect. This goes back to that opening moment.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of the war, where he has changed.

[Gordon Carrera]

Out of his suit deliberately to show.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Solidarity and signal that until the war's.

[Gordon Carrera]

Over he's going to be with the fighters. So I think that's important.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And things are in the balance in these opening days.

[Gordon Carrera]

I think that's what's really clear.

[Unnamed Speaker]

People are starting to flee Kyiv.

[Gordon Carrera]

Suddenly this huge refugee flow's going out there.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Zelenskyy is saying, we'll give weapons to anyone who wants to defend the country.

[Gordon Carrera]

So people are kind of reporting to police stations elsewhere, just picking up, you know, automatic rifles, getting ready to fight.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Because they think the Russians are coming.

[Gordon Carrera]

And the Russians really are, are coming. The barricades are going up, the San are going up.

[Unnamed Speaker]

People are dismantling road signs, which is.

[Gordon Carrera]

Something they did in Britain in World War II when they thought the Germans were going to invade to confuse the invaders. So they don't follow the road signs and know where to go.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So they really are making these preparations.

[Gordon Carrera]

And the reason is that there are.

[Unnamed Speaker]

About 35 to 40,000 Russian troops heading.

[Gordon Carrera]

Straight for Kyiv down from Belarus in a column, a 40 mile long column.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of Russian armour and troops, thousands of vehicles.

[Gordon Carrera]

People are looking at that, people are looking at it on satellite imagery and they're thinking, well, that's it, this is going to take Kyiv. They may not have got Hostomel Airport, as we heard previously, to have that air bridge to be able to land.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Troops, but they've still got 35,000 or.

[Gordon Carrera]

40,000 troops heading down towards Kyiv.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And the pressure on the capital is intense.

[Gordon Carrera]

But this is where I think at least some Ukrainian preparations did make a big difference. Because as we heard in the previous episode, General Valeri Zaluzhny, who is the chief of the Ukrainian military, does appear to have made some very quiet preparations. A few of them were crucial. One was hiding some of the Ukrainian air defences and aircraft. That is crucial because it means the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Russians haven't got air superiority.

[Gordon Carrera]

So they're not able to control the skies in the way that perhaps you'd expect to in a typical battle. I think that's crucial. And Zeluschi has realized that you can.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Play a bit of that insurgency and resistance strategy that we talked about them.

[Gordon Carrera]

Planning for against that column of Russian armor coming down. Because in a sense it looks very intimidating, doesn't it? A 40 mile long column of Russian armour. But it's also a sitting duck in some ways, because what you've got is you've got Ukrainians who've got Javelin anti tank weapons and NLAWs supplied by the Brits, thousands of them, the bingo space.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Is already crossed off. Gordon.

[Gordon Carrera]

Well, I'm going to go again because the Brits gave a lot of end laws in the months before which are these shoulder fired anti tank missiles. So what they realize they could do is you've got this column coming at you.

[Unnamed Speaker]

You can hide in the forests on.

[Gordon Carrera]

The side of the road and you can pop out and in a sense all you have to do, in a way it's so obvious, it's crazy, is take out the first vehicle and the last vehicle and the fuel trucks and these columns are stuck. These massive columns actually suddenly can't move.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In the way that they thought they could.

It was the mud season, was it.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Not at this point in the war. So it was very difficult for the Russians to move off of the roads, right? I mean they couldn't actually get the first armored vehicle out or take that down. Getting that off the road or moving everything else around it in that kind of muddy McMIRE was, was extremely challenging.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And so that column, I still remember.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Seeing video of that column from the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Opening days of the war and it.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Was just like sitting there, it just, it just stopped, didn't it?

[Gordon Carrera]

It just stopped. It's crazy. And so they've got the end laws, they've got some Turkish drones and you start seeing these videos of the Russian armor being taken out, which is also a big boost for morale. And these videos start to go out on social media. So again, a bit like Hostomer where.

[Unnamed Speaker]

You had the one guy with his.

[Gordon Carrera]

You know, his surface to air missile taking out a helicopter. You start to get this notion that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It is possible that Ukraine can resist.

[Gordon Carrera]

And I think it's really interesting, isn't it, because you've got Zelensky as an individual but you've also got these, just.

[Unnamed Speaker]

These individual moments, whether it's a hostomel.

[Gordon Carrera]

Whether it's some of these videos of tanks being taken out which just change morale and flip things where people go.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Maybe we can do this, maybe it's.

[Gordon Carrera]

Not going to be a walkover for the Russians as everyone thought. And that is going to be crucial.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In stiffening the spine.

[Gordon Carrera]

I think of so many Ukrainians that they can fight back and they may.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Be able to stop this massive Russian army that's been invading them.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And I guess this is also the start below the waterline of a massive intelligence sharing effort to help the Ukrainians target everything from these N laws Javelins all the way up to more kind of strategic missiles and rockets.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right? I mean this is this Is the.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Effort beginning where CIA, MI6, Western intelligence services are beginning to really be joined at the hip with the Ukrainians as part of the war effort. Now, of course, there had been, you know, we talked about this in that emergency episode, you know, a few weeks back on intel sharing with Ukrainians. Right. I mean, there had been a budding.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And deepening relationship between the CIA and.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

The Ukrainians in the years prior to this.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But this is where it starts to.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Become like a joint war effort in some respects between the intelligence communities in both countries.

[Gordon Carrera]

The other factor which I think we should talk about is this also reflects a Russian intelligence failure, doesn't it? Because essentially they got their intelligence wrong. They were expecting to be welcomed because they thought that this was a country.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which was actually wanting the Russians to.

[Gordon Carrera]

Overthrow a corruption regime of, you know, Nazis or however Putin put it. And that intelligence failure on the Russian part is going to be absolutely pivotal to the story of why the invasion fails.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They definitely got Ukraine wrong, which is.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I guess in some respects striking because it's right next door. There's linguistic and cultural connections. And you would think on the face of it, that there would have been a more granular understanding of some of.

[Unnamed Speaker]

These dynamics in Ukraine.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Although you do wonder if this is a case where a lot of sort of mid level and working level FSB.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Russian intelligence officers maybe understood these dynamics.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

But were either too afraid to say.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It to superiors or just didn't say it to superiors.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Right. Period.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If none of this information made it.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Into this small circle of kind of war planners who were being told, as you said, that the Ukrainians were going to greet them with flowers as sort of liberators. So you do have that. You have this kind of absolute miss in assessing, I guess, Zelensky also. And I mean, we talked about these teams of Chechens and kind of sleepers who were supposed to go out and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Conduct a whole bunch of assassinations and kind of decapitation work in the early.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Hours and days of the war, including targeting Zelensky. A lot of that, Gordon, seems like it just kind of dissolved, went away. That these networks that presumably the FSB had paid and run that just kind.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of didn't pan out when the time came.

You're right, there's kind of different layers of that intelligence failure on the Russian part.

[Gordon Carrera]

There's the kind of analytic failure that they think the Ukrainians want them to come. And, you know, that goes back to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Putin's essay that, you know, no one's.

[Gordon Carrera]

Willing to kind of challenge the leader's idea are they? That we're one people and that the Ukrainians are Russians and therefore won't fight. So there's definitely a problem that there's an analytic failure there and a military planning failure. One person said to me, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

You could tell this was a plan.

[Gordon Carrera]

Created by a conspiratorial cabal of KGB officers because basically it was a plan cooked up by a few people at the top, never really communicated through the military or assessed on the ground, but.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Just given the orders at the last.

[Gordon Carrera]

Minute and the forces weren't prepared. So there was a failure at that level. They're wrong about Ukrainian leadership, they're wrong about Ukrainian military capabilities, they're wrong about their own capabilities. But yes, I think that other bit is really interesting as well, because the Russians do appear to have had a clear plan to decapitate Ukraine effectively and to have, they thought, laid the groundwork.

[Unnamed Speaker]

For that through their intelligence services. One thing worth saying is that it.

[Gordon Carrera]

Was the fsb, which is the Russian Security Service, which was in charge of this, not, as you might think, the SBR, Foreign Intelligence Service or the GRU Military Intelligence.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Well, they're one country, Gordon, so of course they have no, that's the domestic service working on it, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah, it's the equivalent of MI5, you know, or the FBI doing this because it's the near abroad in Putin's mind. So this is kind of fsb. And there's one particular bit of the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Fsb, the fifth service, or Service five.

[Gordon Carrera]

Under Sergei Beseda, which was tasked with.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Collecting the intelligence on Ukraine and it.

[Gordon Carrera]

Had spent, I think, a long time building networks in Ukraine, putting its people on the ground, buying agents, developing politicians who they thought were going to be loyal to Moscow, having proxies ready to take over. They had this plan and it didn't work.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

It's fascinating, I guess, just how multi layered then the intelligence failure is, because it is an analytic failure, as we've talked about, and it's also a failure at the level of the collection. Right. Because the guys who are recruiting these.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Agents and presumably have attempted to gain some measure of influence or control over.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Them have objectively failed in that task. To have so thin of a level of control over these networks that as.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Soon as things start to tip the.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Other way, they're just, they're just gone. So it's somewhat interesting when you compare it to other noteworthy intelligence failures which are oftentimes sort of purely analytical.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right. To have missed a call in this one.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

It's, it's a failure sort of up.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And down the line on the Russian intelligence side.

What all of this means is that.

[Gordon Carrera]

That Russian plan which was, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It'S all over in three or four.

[Gordon Carrera]

Days, be a parade in Kyiv, it's going to fail.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Those amazing details you remember from the.

[Gordon Carrera]

Time is that in those burnt out Russian vehicles on the road to Kyiv they find parade uniforms and even musical.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Instruments for the marching bands.

[Gordon Carrera]

Because the Russians are so convinced that, you know, they're just going to waltz in, the country's going to collapse. You know, they're there for the parade, they're not really there to fight. That's the reality of what they think.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Packed three pair of underpants and a.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Tuba and gotten a tank and instead.

[Gordon Carrera]

They get an N law in a burnt out tank. So after three or four days, the Russian plan hasn't worked. They haven't got a plan B. Let's come back after the break and we'll see where that leads. And just look at that pivotal role that intelligence played in the run up during the invasion and afterwards.

[Meghan Trainor]

Meghan Trainor Laundry retrainer Meghan Trainor.

You're tossing out my gunky laundry detergent bottle.

It's got that booty, that juicy boom boom that don't ride.

[William Dalrymple]

Alright.

[Meghan Trainor]

Arm and hammer power sheets. Toss like this.

Cause I toss like this, I wash like this. It's a no mess. Laundry bliss. Arm and hammer power sheets. More power to you.

[Anita Arnand]

Hello, I'm William Dalrymple.

[William Dalrymple]

And I'm Anita Arnand. And we are the hosts of Empire, also from Goal Hanger.

[Anita Arnand]

And we're here to tell you about our recent miniseries that we've just done on the Troubles.

[William Dalrymple]

In it, we try to get to the very heart of the violent conflict in Northern Ireland that lasted from the 1960s all the way up to 1998.

[Anita Arnand]

It's something that we both lived through and remember from our childhoods, but younger listeners may not know anything about it. And it's a time when there was division along religious and political lines. Neighbours turned against each other. Residential city streets became battlegrounds. Thousands were killed and the IRA bombed London.

[William Dalrymple]

It seemed as if an end was out of reach. But in 1998, a peace process finally brought those 30 years of violence to an end.

[Anita Arnand]

But the memory of the Troubles is still present, not only within Northern Irish communities who experienced it, but in international relations and political approaches to peace. And new audiences are starting to understand this national trauma through films like Belfast and Kneecap and TV shows like Derry Girls.

[William Dalrymple]

In fact, our guest on the miniseries is Patrick Radden Keefe. Now he's the author of the non fiction book that inspired the hit TV drama say Nothing.

[Anita Arnand]

It's one of my favorite books. It's I think the kind of Inko Blood for Our Generation, extraordinary work of nonfiction. And if you'd like to hear more about this very recent conflict that put Northern Ireland on the global stage and hear from Patrick Raden Keefe, we've left a clip of the miniseries at the end of this episode.

[William Dalrymple]

To hear the full series, just search Empire, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Gordon Carrera]

Welcome back. So we've looked at how Russian intelligence got things wrong, haven't we, David? But that failure of assessment of how the opening stages of the war might play out, how Ukraine might fare, I.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Mean that was also a failure on the Western side and on the American and British side as well, wasn't it?

Well, it is a good question, right? Would you call it an intelligence failure?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I'm not sure here is what's true for sure. It seems that even though the CIA got the call, probably spot on with respect to the run up to the invasion and that Putin was serious and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That he was going to do it.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I mean there's sort of the lead up bit was phenomenally done.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

From an analytic standpoint, it does seem like the CIA, I think most Western services probably made some analytical errors that have cousins on the Russian side.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Are sort of similar to the way.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Russians viewed the situation.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I don't think the CIA felt that Kyiv would fall in three days necessarily like, like Putin seemed to. But it does seem that the agency felt that the Ukrainians would not be able to withstand a Russian assault, that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It was likely the leadership, including Zelensky, may flee or might, might at least leave the capital. Right. And cede that to the Russians.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And it seems like there was a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Pretty significant overestimation of Russian military capabilities.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And I think that bit is, is really, really important because it seems again, you know, from the outside that the nitty gritty picture of how corrupt and hollowed out bits of the Russian military were in particular really basic stuff like how do you maintain heavy equipment, how.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Do you service heavy equipment?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Do you have enough equipment like cranes.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And forklifts to move pallets around?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Do you have the right kind of tires on your armored vehicles that you can replace, like all of this kind of basic stuff. It really seems like at an analytic level the agency either probably wasn't able to put this big picture together to show that Putin's war machine was not.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Going to be as Effective as anybody thought it would be.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

That seems to have eluded us on the American side, both Putin's war machine.

[Gordon Carrera]

How effective it was, and I think the Ukrainian ability to resist that was underestimated. Because the big question we're looking at, and I guess our whole podcast is interesting, is how much does intelligence matter? You know, when does this really make a difference? And in this case, I think we've looked at lots of ways in which it did make a difference, positively and clearly. The ability to warn the Ukrainians, even if they didn't always listen, to kind.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of build support amongst that. All of that mattered. But the misassessment about whether Ukraine could.

[Gordon Carrera]

Resist, I do think that may not be a, well, failure, a mistake did have some consequences. Because if the west had thought that the Ukrainians could resist, perhaps they might.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Have armed them more or better or differently, or supported them in a different way.

[Gordon Carrera]

If they didn't just assume they'd collapse. I also think there's a sense in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which the west was so worried about.

[Gordon Carrera]

Escalation with Russia that it lets Putin to some extent call the shots because they think, well, the Ukrainians are going to collapse. Our main priority is avoid World War iii rather than think, what can we.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Do to help the Ukrainians win?

[Gordon Carrera]

And this is the criticism you hear.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I've heard it from Ukrainian officials when.

[Gordon Carrera]

I've been in Kyiv where they say the US was doing enough to make.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Sure we didn't lose, but not enough.

[Gordon Carrera]

To help us win because they were too worried about escalating with Russia. So there is that question about whether the estimation of the Ukrainian ability to resist, but also how dangerous it was to provoke Russia, whether that was right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I mean, I remember on the Sunday, I think after the invasion, I remember.

[Gordon Carrera]

It vividly because a kind of news alert dropped saying Putin moves his nuclear forces to kind of combat ready status or something, which made it sound like World War III was going to kick off. And people were saying to me, you know, tell us what this means.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It was essentially a bluff.

[Gordon Carrera]

It was Putin knowing the war was going badly, going, I'm going to play my nuclear card and to try and use it to prevent the west supporting Ukraine more. So that intelligence assessment is Russia bluffing.

[Unnamed Speaker]

How far can you push Putin?

[Gordon Carrera]

How much can you arm Ukraine? How much can you support Ukraine without.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Starting World War iii? I completely accept that's a hard call.

[Gordon Carrera]

But I think if there was a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Criticism of the US and maybe some.

[Gordon Carrera]

Others as well, is that they didn't always get that assessment right then and afterwards. Even if they certainly got the intelligence right about the Russian plan in the.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Run up, I will say, I mean, just to kind of defend my analytic cohort, you know, brethren at the Central Intelligence Agency, you think about the kinds of intelligence questions that frame assessments, right? It could be anything from, do the Russians have this piece of, you know, weaponry in kind of their arsenal? You could have questions that are harder, like, what actually is the Russian war plan? And what does.

[Unnamed Speaker]

How did the Russians envision that happening?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

But you go up to the level of a question like, what would be.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The outcome of a war between Russia.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And Ukraine, and how might that go? And again, I would argue that you're getting to something that's almost actually impossible to predict. The best you can really do is to craft realistic scenarios for how that might unfold and to then put into those analytic products a set of signposts that allow the policymakers to understand into.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which one we might be drifting.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And I will say that that kind of assessment, I'm sure, was done in the run up to the war. But it was probably also the case.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That the analysts would be pushed and certainly senior CIA officials in meetings in the Oval of the situation, rumor elsewhere, would be pushed to say, which one.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Of these do you think is the most likely, right?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which one of these are we most likely headed toward?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

And it does seem there that that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Overestimation of Russian capabilities and planning, the underestimation on the Ukrainian side, probably led.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

The CIA to say, look, Putin is.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Being optimistic, but he's probably going to get most of what he wants in.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

A couple of months or something like that. I don't think anyone foresaw as the baseline scenario, although I would bet it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Was one of the three or four that they put down on paper that we would be in a protracted conflict.

[Gordon Carrera]

Like this, I think that's fair. And I think it's probably also a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Fundamentally, the decision on how far to.

[Gordon Carrera]

Go and how much to arm Ukraine.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And how much to confront Putin is.

[Gordon Carrera]

Fundamentally also a political decision.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It's informed by intelligence. But that's the kind of Biden administration, I think President Biden and Jake Sullivan.

[Gordon Carrera]

His national security advisor particularly, it was.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Down to them and their risk appetite.

[Gordon Carrera]

How far to go. So I think if you stand back, I guess what we're saying is intelligence played a massive role in what happened in the run up to war and in those opening days, even with all that intelligence, it was impossible to stop the war. But I guess if Putin is set on it, and if he was set on It.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which is what the intelligence said.

[Gordon Carrera]

That was always going to be hard, but.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But still, the benefits of having that.

[Gordon Carrera]

Intelligence and sharing it were that I think it disrupted that Russian narrative. It prevented Russia controlling the narrative internationally, and it helped rally support for Ukraine and back to that kind of pivotal opening weeks. It meant that European countries particularly, I think, were not going to buy the Russian narrative that they were doing this to defend Russian speakers who were being attacked, you know, as the provocation, the false flag alleged. But actually this was always the Russian plan.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And suddenly the fact even that the, you know, the French and the Germans.

[Gordon Carrera]

Had been wrong made them, I think, even more willing to take a harder line then when they'd been shown to be wrong and the intelligence had proved to be right. And so you did get a really strong coalescing of a coalition to support Ukraine, which, along with the Ukrainian ability and willingness to resist, does mean again that there is a support for Ukraine that maybe people hadn't expected.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And that does help sustain Ukraine.

[Gordon Carrera]

I think, you know, in the longer.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Term, to have expected the intelligence to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Have done much more than it did.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Would be to expect intelligence to be.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Something other than what it is. Right.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Because what it is, is it provides.

[Unnamed Speaker]

A country and its policymakers with an information advantage.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

That's the goal of the intelligence.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Even with that information advantage.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Right. I mean, let's take the simpler case of could the intel have stopped the war? Well, no, in this case, I mean.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Better intelligence would not have stopped the.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

War because what it came down to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Was not an information advantage.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

What it came down to was, were we willing to put so much risk into the system and effectively tell Putin that if you invade Ukraine, you will.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Be in a direct shooting war with the United States. To have effectively provided a security guarantee to Ukraine is probably what it would have required to stop the war. And it may not have even stopped.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

The war, by the way, because he may not have believed it. But that's not an intelligence picture, right? That, that is politics, that is negotiation. That's operating at a different level. So the intelligence certainly would not have stopped the war. I think where it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The counterfactual becomes a bit more interesting.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Is if Biden and his senior advisors had been told consistently that this is going to be like 10 times worse than Afghanistan for Russia, or if that had been the picture provided to the White House, the planning in the early.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Days around the weaponry provided to the Ukrainians, the COVID support provided to the.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Ukrainians, that may have been a different calculation. And I think that's the Critical bit. But to have expected the CIA to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Have gotten that right before the war.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Started again is maybe asking a bit more than any intelligence agency can really provide.

[Gordon Carrera]

And what you see, I guess, after the initial failure of the Russian plan, we then head for this long war in which intelligence support, particularly from the us, also the uk, becomes critical in helping sustain Ukraine. And we've talked about that in our emergency podcast about the kinds of tactical.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Intelligence, the satellite imagery, the targeting data.

[Gordon Carrera]

All of that, which becomes critical, I guess, as we come to a close.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It is interesting.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, we're recording this in towards.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The end of March.

[Gordon Carrera]

And, Becky, one of our producers just spotted as well, a news article today saying that Russia in its talks has named one of the negotiators to be Sergei Besaida, who is the former head of the Fifth Directorate, which oversaw that intelligence failure in Ukraine at the start of the invasion. I mean, it's fascinating. Putin is clearly, despite the failure of the FSB at the start, is still trusting him to be one of the negotiators in any potential talks. Now, look, by the time this comes out, who knows where the talks might be? But I guess one critical point is whether a Russia understands Ukraine any better.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Now, I'm not sure.

[Gordon Carrera]

But also, I think if you go.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Back to the origins of the story.

[Gordon Carrera]

It'S about Putin's intent for regime change in Kyiv, isn't it?

[Unnamed Speaker]

That's what this was driven by.

[Gordon Carrera]

You know, you go back to that essay of July 2020, it's the idea Russia and Ukraine are one country, a single historical and spiritual space.

[Unnamed Speaker]

All the signs are Putin has not.

[Gordon Carrera]

Let go of that view. He's not going to let go of that view.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So even if there is a ceasefire.

[Gordon Carrera]

Or even if there's some kind of deal, I think the concern is his ambition will not have changed, you know, will not be diminished. His desire to install a government in Kyiv which is pliant and effectively a puppet for Moscow.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Well, that's right. And I think it is maybe a good place to close, Gordon, that many.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of the questions, the intelligence questions that were posed three years ago about Putin's.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Plans and intentions and Zelensky's sort of, you know, political acumen and courage, and they're all the same. These questions are still important to Western intelligence services to provide the best possible.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Information to their policymakers about the war in Ukraine, the potential for negotiations to.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

End the war, and all manner of questions around it. So maybe there, Gordon, we'll. We'll end our exploration of intelligence and the early days of the war in Ukraine.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And I should note as well, Gordon.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

That listeners who want to provide you in particular with feedback with, with if, if you have feedback for Gordon Carrera in particular, please send us a note. Send it to us at the rest is classified@Goal Hanger.com the rest is classified@Goal Hanger.com positive feedback only.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Gordon insists.

[Gordon Carrera]

Questions, Anything you want to know what, what you thought we covered or didn't cover in this and what you're interested in. This is a chance to get in touch. We would from you, even if it's not just positive comments for me. Well, David, thanks for everyone for listening and I guess we'll see you next time.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

We'll see you next time.

[William Dalrymple]

So here's a clip from our series on the Troubles.

[J]

This is the strangest thing about this story is that Northern Ireland is so small. And listen, there are other, I mean, you could tell a similar story about Sarajevo or any number of other types of places where there's been a conflict, Rwanda, and then the conflict ends and everybody still kind of lives in the same community. And you see these people. But, you know, there's an instance, even as adults, where Helen McConville is with her own family in McDonald's and sees one of the people who abducted her mother. There's a moment that I describe in the book where Michael McConville actually gets into the back of a black taxi in Belfast as an adult, and he sees in the mirror in the front of the taxi, he realizes that the man driving him is one of the people who decades earlier abducted his mother. And the strangest, most eerie aspect of this is he doesn't say anything and he doesn't even know if that guy recognizes him. And they drive in silence and then he just pays the guy his money and leaves.

[William Dalrymple]

To hear the full series, just search Empire, wherever you get your podcasts, break.