The Rest Is Classified: Episode 63 - "Terror Strikes London: What did MI5 know?"

Release Date: July 8, 2025
Hosts: David McCloskey & Gordon Corera
Description: In this gripping episode, former CIA analyst and spy novelist David McCloskey and veteran security correspondent Gordon Corera delve deep into the intelligence preceding the tragic 7/7 London bombings. They explore whether MI5 had sufficient knowledge to prevent the attack and examine the intricate web of surveillance, intelligence leads, and missed opportunities that culminated in one of the UK's most devastating terrorist acts.

1. Recap of Previous Episode

David McCloskey opens the discussion by referencing the previous episode, where the listeners were introduced to the events of July 7, 2005—the day of the coordinated terrorist attacks on London's buses and the Underground. The hosts highlighted the initial days of the investigation, focusing on the identification of the four British suicide bombers.

Quote:
David McCloskey (03:48): "Last time, we looked at the first few days of the investigation to identify the four British suicide bombers who had conducted the attack."

2. MI5's Surveillance and Operation Crevice

The core of the episode examines MI5's Operation Crevice, an investigation initiated in early 2003 targeting a facilitation network for Al-Qaeda in the UK. The operation aimed to disrupt financial and logistical support to Al-Qaeda without initially targeting the group for imminent attacks on British soil.

Key Points:

• Early Surveillance:
  In late January 2004, MI5 identified Omar Khayyam as a potential courier and began surveillance.
  Gordon Corera (06:17): "It's not as if they have the equivalent, you know, in MI5 of Google, where you just put one name in... they've got lots of separate databases."

• Identification of Suspects:
  MI5 monitored meetings involving unidentified males (C, D, and E), later revealed to be Shahzad Tamwi and Mohammed Sadiq Khan (MSK), who would become pivotal figures in the 7/7 attacks.
  David McCloskey (09:27): "Authorities don't actually have MSK's name attached to this investigation."

• Public Tip-Off:
  A crucial turning point came when a member of the public reported suspicious fertilizer storage, leading MI5 to uncover plans for a fertilizer-based bomb. MI5 replaced the explosive material to mitigate this specific threat.
  Gordon Corera (11:25): "This kind of public tip-off is vital in this case to identifying it."

3. Missed Opportunities and Intelligence Fragmentation

Despite MI5's surveillance efforts, multiple intelligence leads regarding MSK and Tamwi were fragmented and went unconnected due to administrative and resource constraints.

Key Points:

• Multiple Intelligence Streams:
  MI5 received various pieces of intelligence about individuals associated with extremist activities, but these were scattered across different operations and databases, making it challenging to piece together the full picture of the emerging threat.
  Gordon Corera (28:00): "You've got MI5 having multiple hits for the same guy in the systems, but effectively under different names or under no names or as an identified male."

• Challenges in Identification:
  Transliteration issues and varying spellings of names hindered MI5's ability to match different intelligence pieces to the same individuals.
  David McCloskey (28:18): "Oftentimes the same person's name could be entered three, four or five different ways."

• Operational Prioritization:
  MI5 had to prioritize immediate threats due to limited resources, often pushing less obvious but potentially dangerous leads down the list. This led to key figures like MSK and Tamwi not being under continuous surveillance until it was too late.
  Gordon Corera (18:05): "They accept this. One of the witnesses from MI5 in the inquest says, we weren't sufficiently considering people who were on a journey to move up towards attack planning."

4. Structural and Organizational Challenges

The episode highlights systemic issues within MI5 that contributed to the oversight, including insufficient local coverage and inadequate coordination with local police forces.

Key Points:

• Local Integration Issues:
  MI5 lacked robust regional stations and was not deeply embedded within local communities, relying heavily on local police for investigations which often led to communication gaps.
  Gordon Corera (30:05): "MI5 didn't have enough local coverage at the time. It's building up regional stations at this point, but it's not really embedded in local communities."

• Task and Complete Process Flaws:
  MI5's method of sending out tasks to local police without providing sufficient context resulted in ineffective investigations and overlooked connections.
  Gordon Corera (30:47): "They send a task out to West Yorkshire Police saying, look up this name... they're not telling West Yorkshire Police the context."

5. Counterfactual Analysis: Could the Attacks Have Been Prevented?

The hosts engage in a counterfactual discussion, pondering whether continuous surveillance of MSK and Tamwi could have prevented the 7/7 attacks.

Key Points:

• Impact of Enhanced Surveillance:
  If MI5 had prioritized MSK and Tamwi earlier and maintained continuous surveillance, it is plausible that the plot could have been detected and disrupted before execution.
  Gordon Corera (20:15): "And that was that quote you read at the start from the Intelligence Security Committee, which basically says if they'd been under continuous surveillance... then yes, you would have spotted them."

• Resource Allocation Dilemmas:
  Expanding surveillance to include all potential threats would have required a significantly larger and more intrusive security apparatus, raising questions about feasibility and civil liberties.
  Gordon Corera (20:15): "To do that level of surveillance... you'd need a much bigger MI5 which operated in a different way."

• Operational Realities:
  At the time, MSK appeared to MI5 as an extremist preparing to fight abroad, not as someone planning an attack in the UK, which influenced their prioritization decisions.
  David McCloskey (32:20): "And I think if you'd put him under surveillance in 2004, you might have seen someone who's an extremist, but you wouldn't... see someone planning an attack in the UK."

6. The Crucial Pakistan Connection

The latter part of the episode teases the emerging Pakistan connection, suggesting that international intelligence, particularly from the United States, played a role in uncovering deeper links related to the 7/7 bombings.

Key Points:

• International Intelligence Sharing:
  Information from US detainees indicated connections between UK-based extremists and training camps in Pakistan, highlighting the global nature of the threat.
  Gordon Corera (23:52): "Intelligence from the US came from a man called Junaid Baba, who's a jihadist who's in US custody and who's talking."

• Missed Identification:
  Critical photographs provided to US sources were inadequately processed, leading to missed opportunities in identifying key figures like MSK.
  Gordon Corera (25:34): "He's actually shown a better picture again in August 2004. But again, he doesn't spot that Mohammed Sidi Khan is one of the people he's been talking about."

7. Insights and Reflections

David McCloskey and Gordon Corera conclude by reflecting on the lessons learned from the MI5 investigation's shortcomings, emphasizing the importance of resource allocation, inter-agency communication, and the complexities of intelligence work in preventing terrorism.

Quote:
David McCloskey (30:05): "It's a resource decision. How do we take limited, scarce resources and use them and point them at the most dangerous threats?"

Conclusion:
The episode underscores the intricate balance intelligence agencies must maintain between proactive surveillance and efficient resource management. It highlights how fragmented intelligence, administrative hurdles, and prioritization challenges can inadvertently allow threats to escalate. As the hosts prepare to explore the Pakistan connection and Al-Qaeda's role in future episodes, they leave listeners contemplating the delicate dynamics of national security and the perpetual quest to stay ahead of evolving terrorist threats.

Notable Quotes:

• David McCloskey (03:21): "Could [the 7/7 attacks] have been prevented? And that, Gordon, is exactly the question we are going to look at in this episode."

• Gordon Corera (12:06): "There's always a tension about when you move to arrest as opposed to just collect intelligence."

• David McCloskey (17:21): "In retrospect, it all seems very clear... these future 7/7 bombers here in 2004 are kind of up to some pretty shady stuff with another group that looks to be conducting attacks in the UK."

• Gordon Corera (20:15): "If they'd been under continuous surveillance, these men who are known as C, D, and E for the 15 months from Crevice until 7/7, then yes, you would have spotted them."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions of Episode 63, providing listeners with an in-depth understanding of MI5's investigative processes, the challenges faced, and the pivotal moments that led up to the tragic events of 7/7 in London.