The Gen-Z Trend Killing Pop Music

Summary

The Rest Is Entertainment

Episode: The Gen-Z Trend Killing Pop Music
Date: February 17, 2026
Hosts: Richard Osman & Marina Hyde

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Episode Overview

In this lively and insightful episode, Richard Osman and Marina Hyde deep-dive into two key trends reshaping entertainment. First, they dissect the explosive rise of “prediction markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket and their fast-approaching influence on live television and entertainment. Then, they pivot to examine Britney Spears’ headline-making sale of her music catalog, using it as a lens to explore the seismic shift toward old music (catalog) among Gen-Z listeners, and whether this trend signals the end of pop’s constant drive for “the new.”

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Prediction Markets: Entertainment’s Next Big Disruptor

[02:41-21:20]

• Introduction to Kalshi and Polymarket:
  Richard introduces two rapidly growing “prediction market” platforms, arguing, “You are going to hear an awful lot more about them in the next 18 months… They could save our industry or doom humanity.” (03:01)
• What Are Prediction Markets?
  Both hosts clarify these are essentially betting platforms—but due to their classification as “financial services” in the US, they're subject to much lighter regulation than conventional gambling.
• Scope of Betting:
  “You can bet on anything,” Richard marvels, listing odds on everything from Super Bowl scores to whether “Jesus Christ returns before 2027” (4% at time of recording) or if the US will reveal the existence of aliens (10%). (05:27-05:33)
• Integration with Entertainment:
  These platforms are rapidly embedding themselves in live entertainment, news, and sports. Polymarket paid handsomely for prominent placement during the Golden Globes—and, as Marina notes, “It looked really naff… I think Hollywood sort of bristled at them being there.” (07:21)
• Insider Trading Worries:
  Marina recounts a story of what appears to be blatant insider trading (a user making a series of highly prescient bets on the Super Bowl):
  “That is obviously a form of insider trading… but in derivatives markets you don’t actually get prosecuted for insider trading.” (09:09-09:42)
• Consequences for TV Funding & Format:
  Richard explains that the huge, unregulated money flowing through these platforms will soon make them critical funders of new, live, highly “bettable” TV formats:
  “The entire budget of that show, the entire winnings of that show can be funded by losing bets.” (13:45)
• Ethics and Cultural Normalization:
  Marina points out,
  “I think the culture is already so softened up for it. The gamification of absolutely everything…” (13:59)
• Potential Industry Shift:
  Richard predicts that within two years, “we’re going to have big entertainment propositions which are live, which are funded entirely by prediction markets.” (19:28) The entire genre of “micro dramas,” reality shows, and influencer-led challenges could soon rely on these “always on” betting platforms.
• Warning & Concern:
  Both hosts reflect on how the normalization of gambling—and reduced barriers between entertainment and betting—could reshape how audiences, especially young people, engage with culture and news.

Notable Quotes

• “You can bet on will Jesus Christ return before 2027. What sort of chance do you think there is of that happening?” — Richard Osman (05:27)
• “That is obviously a form of insider trading… but in derivatives markets you don’t actually get prosecuted.” — Marina Hyde (09:36)
• “The entire winnings of that show can be funded by losing bets.” — Richard Osman (13:45)
• “The gamification of absolutely every single tiny thing…” — Marina Hyde (13:59)
• “People will do them. I do not need a cut.” — Richard Osman (19:28)

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2. Britney Spears’ Catalog Sale and the “Death” of New Pop Music

[23:08–36:12]

• Britney’s Catalog Deal:
  Britney Spears has sold her catalog to investment fund Primary Wave. While terms aren’t public, the figure is rumored to be around $200 million.
  “We don’t know how much she sold for. People are suggesting $200 million.” — Marina Hyde (24:03)
• Why Sell? Financial Efficiency:
  Richard unpacks the personal, legal, and especially tax motivations for artists to do these deals:
  “It’s incredibly tax efficient to sell your back catalog… She will pay essentially what we would call capital gains tax.” (24:54)
• Why Are Funds Buying?
  Catalogs have become an “institutional-level asset” thanks to streaming platforms like Spotify providing predictable earnings data.
  “Now we understand how much the legacy of a band can make each year… you can see that number on a spreadsheet.” — Richard Osman (27:24)
• Gen-Z’s Love Affair with Old Music:
  Multiple factors are at play:
  • Lockdown created a “nostalgia wave”—67% of playlists included older music.
  • Gen-Z now consumes more catalog music than new releases.
  • TikTok and on-screen “syncs” (like Stranger Things using Kate Bush) introduce classics to new generations.
  • Rise of “faux-stalgia”—as Marina says, “It’s not nostalgia. They weren’t there in the first place. It’s almost like a false memory.”
• Decontextualization & Authenticity:
  Gen-Z trusts music made “before AI,” craving authenticity even in past “manufactured” bands.
  “There’s a time before [AI] and a time after. And the time before, we know it was made by human beings—and that starts to become a premium.” — Richard Osman (30:13)
• Chart Evidence:
  Richard points to album charts packed with legacy acts—Queen, Elton John, Fleetwood Mac, ABBA—alongside newer bands.
  “Abbott is massive with under 21s… A third of Beatles listeners are under 28.” — Marina Hyde (31:41)
• Sync and Cultural Rediscovery:
  The licensing of catalog music for films and TV series can deliver windfalls and a new fanbase, as with Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill.”
  “At the last count she’d got something like 10.8 million so far from that.” — Marina Hyde (33:27)
• Is Pop Music’s Story Finished?
  Richard wonders if we’ve reached a “tipping point”:
  “It feels like the story, such as it is, has been written.” (35:01) Meanwhile, Marina notes industry-wide anxiety:
  “Are fewer and fewer new things going to be created because people are just finding different ways… to rediscover the past?” (35:37)

Notable Quotes

• “Gen-Z now listens to more catalog music than they do new music. That says something about the cultural moment we find ourselves in.” — Marina Hyde (28:21)
• “Catalog is turning into classical music… In the same way you’d now think it’s insane if [a new artist] was selling more than Queen.” — Richard Osman (28:22)
• “Faux-stalgia. It’s not nostalgia. They weren’t there in the first place…” — Marina Hyde (29:21)
• “There’s a time before AI and a time after it. And the time before, we know it was made by human beings, and that starts to become a premium.” — Richard Osman (30:13)
• “It feels like the story, such as it is, has been written.” — Richard Osman (35:01)

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3. Memorable Moments & Humor

• The playful exchange over the odds of Jesus Christ returning by 2027 (05:27).
• Marina’s description of the “naff” Polymarket presence at the Golden Globes (07:21).
• Their banter over club nights, Gen-Z, and “faux-stalgia”—with Richard quipping about Brighton Escape Rooms:
  “I just called it Escape Rooms. Sixteen-year-old me would be so angry!” (29:33)
• Richard’s tongue-in-cheek promise not to run a prediction market for the podcast, despite temptation:
  “Imagine how obsessed you’d become with it.” — Marina Hyde
  “I’m not going anywhere near.” — Richard Osman (19:21)
• Capper: Joking about recommendations and how “Abba are massive” (“Abba” vs “Abba are”) and their affection for Michael Palin’s new sitcom cameo (31:49, 38:08).

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4. Recommendations & Closing Thoughts

[37:19–end]

• What they're enjoying:
  • Winter Olympics commentary (“I have loved the Winter Olympics… BBC are doing it brilliantly.” — Marina Hyde [37:22])
  • Arcadia at The Old Vic
  • Mackenzie Crook’s new sitcom “Small Profits” (“…definitely going to be a huge cult sitcom because it’s great.”—Richard Osman [38:08])
• Upcoming Podcast Plans:
  • Special Q&A episode focused on awards season.
  • Richard will pilot a segment interviewing people (starting with Marina) about their favorite books for The National Year of Reading.

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Key Segment Timestamps

• Prediction Markets Rise & Entertainment Impact — [02:41–21:20]
• Britney Spears’ Catalog Sale & the Catalog Music Trend — [23:08–36:12]
• Gen-Z’s Relationship to Old Music & 'Faux-stalgia' — [28:22, 29:21, 31:41]
• What This Means For New Music — [32:01–35:37]
• Show Recommendations — [37:19–39:04]

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Summary Takeaway

This episode is rich with frank, often funny analysis of both new and nostalgic trends colliding in entertainment. Richard and Marina spotlight how the influx of “prediction market” money could fundamentally transform TV, while exploring the rise of catalog music as Gen-Z’s new obsession—and what both signals for the future of fresh, risk-taking pop culture. Whether you want insider industry insights, cautionary tales, or simply sharp commentary and wit, this episode is classic Rest Is Entertainment.

Transcript

[Richard Osman]

This episode is brought to you by Octopus Energy.

[Marina Hyde]

Now it is award season. Everyone is wondering who's going to clean up. And we tend to think awards are about that one big moment. Like, oh, my goodness, that one night, that speech. I can't believe I've won.

[Richard Osman]

But the effort that goes into winning

[Marina Hyde]

an award, everyone going for one of those big movie awards, it's not a coincidence that Academy members or whatever are saying, oh, you know, did you see that thing? Yeah, I did. It was really good. There is a remorseless many months campaign and there are tens of people working on every single film's awards campaign. Campaign.

[Richard Osman]

I thought you were gonna say tens of thousands. No, no, but there are tens.

[Marina Hyde]

Yeah, there are tens. But that's quite a lot when you think of like one. And it's a full time job.

[Richard Osman]

We mention this only because we are announcing our presenting partnership with the lovely people at Octopus Energy who have just won the which recommended provider of the Year for the ninth time in a row. And that is not something you get just by.

[Marina Hyde]

Which is hard to win, which is hard to win, which is hard to.

[Richard Osman]

Which is hard to win, which is

[Marina Hyde]

hard to win, which is hard to win.

[Richard Osman]

But nine in a row, I would say that makes Octopus Energy the Merrell Streep of the business.

[Marina Hyde]

Oh, yeah, they're the Merrell. They're the absolute. They're the Merrell.

[Richard Osman]

I call them Merrell Energy. That's what I call them.

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[Marina Hyde]

Hello and welcome to this episode of the Rest Is Entertainment.

[Richard Osman]

With me, Marina Hyde, and me, Richard Osman. Hello, listeners. Hello, Marina.

[Marina Hyde]

Hello, Richard. How Are you?

[Richard Osman]

I'm. Yeah, I'm not too bad. How are you?

[Marina Hyde]

I'm very well, thank you. Very well indeed.

[Richard Osman]

Have you had a busy week? I only ask because for the last half hour you've been telling me what a busy week you've had.

[Marina Hyde]

And that's not the first time I've been telling you this week that it's been a busy week. You have had a really busy week, Richard. I can't bore everyone else with it. Sorry, that was just for you.

[Richard Osman]

Okay.

[Marina Hyde]

But I'm excited to talk about the subjects we're talking about because they're really interesting.

[Richard Osman]

There are two websites that called Kalshee and Polymarket. And you are going to hear an awful lot more about them in the next 18 months. Two years in the world of television, in the world of entertainment, certainly in the world of content as well. They are big, both companies, which could save our industry or doom humanity. And we're going to talk about why one of. One of those two things is going to happen.

[Marina Hyde]

We're also going to talk about Britney Spears, who has sold her music catalog for an undisclosed sum. And we're going to talk about why she might have done that, why people do it, why people acquire catalog, and much more broadly about catalog itself.

[Richard Osman]

And also we're going to talk about whether that means new music has died in some way that we're spending so much money on old music. What has happened to new music?

[Marina Hyde]

Okay, let's begin with calcium Polymarkers.

[Richard Osman]

Let's talk about calcium Polymarket. So these two businesses, they're called prediction markets. Now, you and I would look at these things and go, hold on. They're betting companies because essentially you can predict anything. You could predict the score of the super bowl on Cauchy and Polymarket. You could predict the score on Premier League football. You could predict all sorts of things. So to you and I, that would

[Marina Hyde]

be viewership of the Super Bowl. Yeah, all sorts of the weather in your state.

[Richard Osman]

But, you know, that's not a prediction, it's a bet. Okay. But it's called prediction. And that becomes important financially. That becomes important in this story. Now, these two companies, Kalshi and Polymarket, very hard to get official figures of quite how much they turn over. But it looks like last year they're somewhere around 63 billion. And that is almost double.

[Marina Hyde]

I thought it was 12 billion in December alone.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely huge. And the way they're doing it, if you go on the front page of Kalshi and Polymarket, which you must do after this. It's very, very interest. I wouldn't recommend anyone bets because you will lose. But, you know, it's just interesting sociologically to look, that's the thing. I'd always say not bet responsibly, but just remember that you will definitely lose money. There will be, as you say, there'll be Oscar bets you can make what's going to win, you know, best movie there will be bets on. How many times is Elon Musk going to tweet next week? Currently favorite is 360 to 379. Bernie Sanders is about to do a speech in North Carolina on Will he use any of the following words? Will he use the word Minneapolis? You can bet on that. You can bet on when Donald Trump might bomb Iran. You can bet on this awful story of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Savannah Guthrie, the US presenter who's been kidnapped. You can bet on whether they're going to arrest someone. I mean, you can bet on anything. You can bet. I'll give you the odds, in fact, you can bet on will Jesus Christ return before 2027. There is. What sort of chance do you think there is of that happening?

[Marina Hyde]

Tell me at time of recording.

[Richard Osman]

At time of recording, 4%.

[Marina Hyde]

Wow, that's. That's a lot.

[Richard Osman]

I mean, that's America. You know, you can also get, you know, will the USA reveal the existence of aliens? That's 10% at the moment. So it's a betting thing, but it's not just on, you know, by the

[Marina Hyde]

way, if they've got anything, they should put it out right now. It'd be very helpful in money, anyway.

[Richard Osman]

Well, that's. I presume that's why some people are betting on it. They're thinking that's Trump's last card. Yeah, isn't it? By the way, there was an A1.

[Marina Hyde]

They hold the key to this.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah, exactly. So, as you say, in the States, for whatever reason, these companies are classed as prediction markets, not betting companies, because betting was.

[Marina Hyde]

Sports betting is illegal till very.

[Richard Osman]

It's legal in 20 states now.

[Marina Hyde]

It is, but until something like 2018, and they had to go to the Supreme Court and overturn it all. And then lots of. They've done it at federal level and some people have allowed different versions of it, which is kind of weird for us because we don't understand that we

[Richard Osman]

can bet on anything. And the two big companies in the. In the betting space are FanDuel and DraftKings, which are regulated as gambling entities. And you can bet in 20 states and you can't bet in the other 30. Now, all of these companies, why are we talking about it on an entertainment podcast? And the reason is they are all inveigling their way into entertainment, especially into live entertainment, which, as we know, is. That's the. The biggest version of entertainment that is. That is left for us. So DraftKings and FanDuel, you'll see all over. If you live in a particular state, you know, you'll be able to see the progress of your bets on screen as you're watching a, you know, NFL game. We saw at the Golden Globes, polymarket were the company who were providing the odds saying, who's going to win? Best actor, who's going to win?

[Marina Hyde]

They paid a huge amount for that.

[Richard Osman]

Some people say they paid 100 million. I think that's. I don't think they did pay 100 million, but they paid a lot.

[Marina Hyde]

It was really sort of janky. I mean, it looked really naff. But the hosts mention them all and, you know, I think Hollywood sort of bristled at them being there.

[Richard Osman]

Having spoken to people involved, I think polymarket themselves understand that what they did at the Golden Globes, which is who's about to win this thing that you're going to win, which by and large, in most awards ceremonies, you sort of know, actually rather spoiled it. And they should be doing betting on how many people thank their agent, how many people go over their time. You know, whimsical things that add a little bit of value to a broadcast. You know, you're still advertising your company and you're still getting value from money, but you are making the broadcast better. But it is clear that they. Kalshi, who've got deals at cnn, cnbc,

[Marina Hyde]

well, that's the weirdest thing at the moment. They've got a ticker running along the bottom on cnn. And you can bet on, you know, the news is a market. You can bet on things happening. Much as you would be able to see a ticker going across a sports broadcast and bet on those things or the stocks, which is the thing that legitimizes it because we, Wall street is essentially gambling, of course, and always has been. There's something kind of heritage and legacy about the idea that, you know, futures markets. Yeah, always been with us, just in different forms.

[Richard Osman]

The trick they're playing and the trick they've been allowed to play is they're legislated as a financial services company, as a prediction company, as a derivatives company. If you want to get completely specific about what they're regulated at. So people are not gambling, they're making informed, you know, decisions on where the future of the market might be. So they find themselves in a situation where they are not regulated in the way that betting companies are. So they can sort of embed themselves in news and they can embed themselves in, you know, in sport and all of these type things without any sort of legislation against.

[Marina Hyde]

Can I give you an example of how unregulated they are? Because I found this so funny. Somebody on Kalshit opened an account as in had never traded before, made one trade on the Super bowl about 50k that Gaga would be a kind of guest of Bad Bunny then six hours later made eight out of eight correct predictions on people who would not be co performers and then said yes, but Ricky Martin would do. It's like, it's just completely unreal. Okay, so obviously what I'm saying, in case it's not extremely obvious because you're not a betting person, that is obviously a form of insider trading but obviously that person knows what's happening.

[Richard Osman]

And also in the derivatives market you don't actually get prosecuted for insider trading. That's you know, you are allowed to use personal knowledge that you have and which is what people do. I mean even to the extent that there was a bet placed just before Nicolas Maduro was captured by the Americans, a bet that made $400,000 that Maduro would be captured in the next day. Now I mean that's someone who knows that Maduro is about to be bides time on Shakeout. Yeah, exactly. There was an allegation which has not been proved that Caroline Levitt, Trump's press secretary, she was doing a press briefing and you can bet on how long the press briefings will take. And they said just before I think the, the 65 minute mark, she looked at her watch and stopped immediately. So there were people saying oh I bet that someone's had a bet on, on Kalshu or Polymarket. So you find yourself in this wild west over there where you have these companies that allow you, you know this, you don't need to mince your words to bet on pretty much anything.

[Marina Hyde]

Richard, that is fascinating in a dark way. How will it influence this world that we talk about entertainment?

[Richard Osman]

The guy who came up with Polymarket, October last year he became the world's youngest ever self made billionaire. Okay. And he was 28 years old, 27 years old in fact last year he's a self made billionaire through Polymarket. Now I suspect that his title has just been taken by someone we talked about the other week and I think for the same reason. So we talked about Kobi lame. Yeah, the TikTok star who just signed a billion dollar deal for E Commerce. And what these guys are doing and what they really want to get into is we talk for years and years about second screen viewing, which is people are always on their phone when your program is on the television. Now there's two things they can be doing. Looking at someone else's content that someone else is monetizing, you know, giving their data to somebody else or they can be looking at something which you have a part of E Commerce of course, is that. So that's why Khabi Lame is worth a billion dollars because you can be watching him and you can be buying something at the same time. And polymarket and Kalshi are worth so much money because you can be betting on the thing you are watching. And in the same way that we all understand that, you know, you can bet in match and the football, you can, you can be watching a reality show and be betting all the way through. So you're double screening. But the people who are funding the big screen are also getting money from the small screen as well.

[Marina Hyde]

Who's going to win? Traitors, who's going to go at this round table, that sort of thing, all

[Richard Osman]

of that kind of stuff. I mean the interesting thing, Kalsi, huge markets right now on Survivor, on Traitors, on Love is Blind, Beast, Games, all of that stuff. So where is this going? Well, I would say this from producers I talk to in the, in, in the States and from people at those companies. Television is not overfunded at the moment. We have a funding crisis in television. People are looking for money from everywhere. Movies are as well, you know, that's why they're looking for Saudi Arabian money. You know, if there's money out there, people want it. Polymarket and Kalshi find themselves absolutely awash with money. I mean crazily awash with money and not that many places that they can spend it. Okay, so you know, they can spend it on super bowl, they can spend it on live sports, they can spend it on live events, those sorts of things. But we are going to get to the stage where they start funding events themselves. So you'll get in the same way that you can bet on Survivor and Traitors and what have you, which is a slightly tricky market for them because some people know already who's won. But if you're Polymarket and you team up with one of the big entertainment Producers, which is definitely what they will do. You are producing shows that are live, that are always on and that have a series of things in them that you can bet on. So you're producing a bigger. You team up with a big entertainment producer, you come up with a format that's very sticky anyway and is very exciting anyway. And you just run it and run it and run it and run it. And in it there is market after market after market, the prize money for that show.

[Marina Hyde]

And indeed the creators are literally just greyhounds.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah.

[Marina Hyde]

No offense to greyhounds or creators.

[Richard Osman]

The entire budget of that show, the entire winnings of that show can be funded by losing bets.

[Marina Hyde]

Oh, beyond far. I mean, the amount of money and

[Richard Osman]

that is definitely coming down the track. Over here it will be harder because over here there will be regulated as betting companies.

[Marina Hyde]

But also one of the things I think about when I think when you talk like that is that I think the, the culture is already so softened up for it. We've talked about it how often before. Even down to the things like buying labo boos, people expect there to be disappointment. Something transactional. The gamification of absolutely every single tiny thing. And that huge. You know, a lot of people will always say, you know, when they're trying to be clever about gambling, it's a form of self loathing. You're addicted to losing. Because that's the thing that happens most. And actually that's the thing. It's a form of like whatever an agent was.

[Richard Osman]

And he was saying these newer audiences. Exactly that. Increasingly accustomed to and addicted to interacting with what's on their screens. And he said, look at what fantasy football has done for the NFL. Right. It's increased viewership and increases people's engagement. This agent says when you gamify things, everything's more interesting.

[Marina Hyde]

Which I have more when there's money on it.

[Richard Osman]

I have a lot of. Well, I have a lot of sympathy with. If you gamify, something is more interesting, for sure. And if you're playing fantasy football that I had to give up fantasy football because it got too interesting for me. Because it, you know, every single. Everything that happened that, you know, there were, it had an impact on me

[Marina Hyde]

one day at a time.

[Richard Osman]

The thing about fantasy football is it doesn't cost you anything. The thing about gambling is it does cost you something. It costs you a lot. And actually online gambling is, you know, very available to people, but it sort of is and it sort of isn't. Gambling is not overt in our culture in the way that entertainment is, I know if you watch sky, there's a million gambling adverts. I absolutely get it, but it's not overt in our culture. Whereas if you take this new generation of people who, as you say, used to having a transactional relationship with the people they love watching on tv, if you've got a TV show that you can bet on and it's live and involves creators who we know are on a piece of it, and that's absolutely fine, and sponsored by someone who's on a piece of it, that's absolutely fine because that's what we've grown up with. That is a situation where you've got to be very careful how, you know, we can see the money it brings in and we can see how it's funded, but who is funding it? And, you know, betting companies tend to make a lot of their money from a small amount of people. So for TV producers, I think it's very interesting that there's this prediction market of ridiculous things. And I think it's certainly interesting that there's a lot of money out there. A lot of money. And I think it's interesting that the people at Polymarket and Kalshi are also reaching out and saying, what is it that we can do? We're not quite should. We haven't stumbled upon these billions, but in a way they also sort of have a little bit. It's taken them by surprise, quite the pickup they have on some of the most ridiculous markets that they have. So somewhere that is all going to come together.

[Marina Hyde]

What else I think that has we started to see is that young people are saying, oh, Polymarket, they want to watch the news. They just want to see a needle telling them exactly how likely something is to happen. That's enough news. So again, that sort of slightly worries me that every single tiny thing is being reduced in the world of iq. Tell me, just give me the results.

[Richard Osman]

Results, yeah. There is an argument that says that in the world of news, it's this. This is incredibly dangerous because if people start using it as a predictive tool, then, you know, it's. It ends in a very bad place. Personally, I don't think that's a issue. I think people are smart enough about markets. You know, you look at the markets for any political thing and you, you know, it's just where the money has gone. That's. Yeah, that's all it isn't. That's, by the way, is the same in prediction markets. It's just. It's not really predicting. It's just where has the rest of the money gone? That's, that's all. I just think that it is. While they are legal or quasi legal in the States, a number of big entertainment propositions are going to crop up in the next 18 months. Wildly fund. Yeah, I mean funded like an entertainment show. Hasn't been for years and years and years. I remember when we were like, oh my God, who wants to be a Millionaire? That's so clever. They're, yeah, they're giving away the million because everyone's ringing in and so they're taking a piece of the phone line and that was like the most revolutionary thing anyone ever done. But if you want to do a TV show with a 25 million pound prize, here you go. Absolutely doable. But it would be funded by losing bets. But everyone I speak to is thinking about it. Certainly those companies are thinking about it as well. As I say over here, you wouldn't necessarily be able to commission it because of the regulatory issues. But if you're YouTube or if you're someone like that, then of course you could do.

[Marina Hyde]

In some ways it's hard because the other, the one other drawback to it with even within that like TV market or whatever it is, is that shows have to be live at the same time for everyone to be. And because of the time differences across the states, it's, it's hard to export. You have to create local versions. But I'm sure with AI they could find that quite easy.

[Richard Osman]

But here's the thing with this always on, I mean you just create something that does that. That's the point. If you're an entertainment producer, what do

[Marina Hyde]

you just do on YouTube?

[Richard Osman]

You go, oh, what's the issue? Oh, the issue is that we can't put it at 9 o' clock Eastern Time because that's, you know, the rest of the world don't have that. You think what? Hold on. I've got steps all around the world. I've got different time zones everywhere in the world that I can schedule different things, different things for different markets. But you know, the place is the same that you know, the platform is the same. It's just, you use that fact so that, that for me would be a positive rather than a negative. Also if you're a podcaster, I mean haven't have an always on podcasts where, you know, random events are happening which can be predicted or not predicted. I mean it's, it's, there's free money right there.

[Marina Hyde]

But I can assure you that if we have one, you are running it, you would become too obsessed with it.

[Richard Osman]

I'm not going anywhere near.

[Marina Hyde]

Imagine how obsessed you'd become with it.

[Richard Osman]

But it's, it's. You know, these ideas are so simple and they're all out there and people will do them. I do not need a cut. But it's, it's all, it's, it's all there. Anything live and unpredictable that can be funded by a company making money off people betting on unpredictable things is an absolute shoe in. In the next 18 months, two years, we're going to have big entertainment propositions which are live, which are funded entirely by prediction markets. Over here they will be gambling companies. But I just thought it's an interesting thing for people to keep an eye on when something like this crops up. You got this, this is where it's come from. And this is. And this, this is why it's come about as well. But everybody I speak to now in the world of live events, in the world of entertainment is having conversations about this and about this extraordinary source of money, I think, for the movie industry. I don't see there's anything in this. I don't see. I don't see how that works, particularly for micro dramas. Yes.

[Marina Hyde]

Yeah.

[Richard Osman]

100. If I am Kalshi or Polymarket, I would put so much money into micro dramas because I have 20, 30, 40 different cliffhangers which I can really, I have I absolute control on when they get released. I absolutely can have an either or thing that happens at the end of every single one of those things. So 100 it will, it will go into micro dramas but also the world of game reality, creator, influencer, economy, stuff that has any sort of challenge, stuff that has any sort of A or B option to it. All of that can be paid for by this. And it'd be a market which they would massively exploit.

[Marina Hyde]

Imagine how many more people you need trying to work out whether people are inside trading or do you just not have any.

[Richard Osman]

I don't think they're fast, you know, because they're. So long as they're making money. You know, they always say you never see a broke bookie. Not that these people are bookies. They're prediction marketeers.

[Marina Hyde]

Right after this break, we're going to be talking to you about Britney Spears and her selling her music catalog and what it all means.

[Richard Osman]

Or are we? You can bet right now on polymarket.com.

[Marina Hyde]

see you after the break.

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[Marina Hyde]

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[Richard Osman]

Welcome back everybody. Now, Brittany.

[Marina Hyde]

Brittany is Britney bitch, as they in the parlance of Britney. Britney Spears has just sold her catalog to Primary Way, which is a fund that buys up lots of these sorts of things. Now what does this all mean? Okay, Bruce Springsteen told his catalog half a billion dollars. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's extraordinary.

[Richard Osman]

The money Queen sold for over a billion.

[Marina Hyde]

Yeah, half of Michael Jackson was 600 million. It's not exactly clear what she sold. Sony still own and control the masters of her recordings. Any publishing stream she has. In her case, not a lot. She didn't write her own hits mostly, but so it's more likely artist royalties, which is her share of recorded performance. Royalt and the we don't know how much she sold for. People are suggesting $200 million. As I say, I've seen that figure quoted, but I don't know. And people in the music business don't really know. Apart from the people who've done this.

[Richard Osman]

It won't be insanely different to that.

[Marina Hyde]

Digging into the numbers briefly, at the start she earns about 1.5 million off Spotify annually. We can see that. Now if you add in all the other music streamers and YouTube and film and TV licensing, she probably gets seven or eight million dollars a year. So why sell the end of her conservatorship. Remember she was in this very, very restrictive relationship where parents were essentially legal guardians and couldn't, she wasn't able to do anything when that came to an end. When Britney was freed as it were, they think she had about 60 million. Now they think she's down to 40 million. It's insane spending private jets. I mean it's, bless her. She makes very bad decisions and there's, there's a sense that there's possibly a cash crisis. If this is what she sold it for, there won't be any more problems in that department for now. In terms of why acquire catalogues, can

[Richard Osman]

I also say it's incredibly boring but incredibly tax efficient to sell your back catalog. If she can make 7 to 8 million a year in royalties, she is paying what we would consider income tax on that. If she can sell to a company and there's various ways that you can kind of package that up, she will pay essentially what we would called capital gains tax. So I know that's boring, but it just means that suddenly she's probably paying about half the tax. It makes sense for her to have it. Now if you are primary wave, that's the interesting question because if she is making 8 million a year, takes you 25 years to pay that back, which is of no interest to any financial company ever. So they must have bigger plans for it.

[Marina Hyde]

Why do people acquire catalog? First of all, it's got this huge long term value. I would say that in the case of Britney's catalog, Jon M. Chu, who did Wicked, is doing the Britney biopic that will be very, very big. 90s music is on a tail. I'm going to get to that a lot in a minute. Other markets like Asia, Latin America are kind of growing.

[Richard Osman]

They're betting she's going to have years where she's making 25, 30 million.

[Marina Hyde]

Yeah, because I tell you, because she is iconic and I know that sounds like a word you would use to describe like an outfit someone wore on a reality TV show that you loved but actually what I mean about Britney Spears is she has been on a journey. She endures. New people discover her and her story, maybe it will end happily, maybe it won't.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah.

[Marina Hyde]

But above all she is a story and there is something about that type of artist and that type of catalog that makes it a very, very interesting investment.

[Richard Osman]

And this again, this is, and as

[Marina Hyde]

I say, a lot of artists have cashed out.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah. Well this is a financial note. The reason why this market has become so huge sort of is due to Spotify. Because the one thing financial institutions need is they need data as to how well, whatever they're buying has performed and how they might be able to ramp that up. And what Spotify has given them sort of for the first time, is a yearly indication of you are definitely getting this much money each year. Because I can show you for the last 10 years how much she streamed, how much that made her. If that's gone up, if that's gone down. And so they have a base level of going, okay, we understand this is an asset that will bring us in 2 million pound a year. Whatever happens. That's going absolutely nowhere. And we can see a way of ramping that up. So the fact that there was a dependability in the, in the figures means that people have started buying catalog if, for example.

[Marina Hyde]

But it's become like an institutional level asset.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah.

[Marina Hyde]

Which is a really weird way to think about creativity. And yet here we all are.

[Richard Osman]

But now we understand how much the legacy of a band can make each year. Absolutely. You can see that number on a spreadsheet. And so we can work out, okay, we can give you 200 million pound for that in a way they wouldn't have been able to do 15 years ago.

[Marina Hyde]

Absolutely. And if you, what's interesting, if you look at the artists who've sold and you say, okay, Springsteen, Dylan, whatever, you're now looking at people. It wasn't that long ago that Justin Bieber, I think, I can't remember when he did it, but Justin Bieber sold his for 200 million. Katy Perry sold now Britney. There is a sense among people in the music industry that people, these, the sellers are getting younger and it might start a wave of people doing this. So catalog is not frontline new music, not all the new things. The theory was that in lockdown, catalog took over from new music. The first lockdown, something like 67% of playlists had nostalgia in it. Gen Z now listens to more catalog music than they do new music. That says something about the cultural moment we find ourselves in Class music is

[Richard Osman]

turning into classical music. You would think it's insane if a new classical composer sold more than Mozart. In the same way you would now think it's insane if Fontaine's DC was selling more than Queen.

[Marina Hyde]

Exactly.

[Richard Osman]

That's, that's, that's where we've got to.

[Marina Hyde]

And they come to it via various routes. The routes are they come to it. They come to it via TikTok. It's a background tracks Things like that. And nostalgia is just like a monster tag on on TikTok. But they also. What's interesting is there's this. They have this idea of sort of like an idol. Like there was this pre digital time when culture wasn't splintered and it wasn't siloed and they sort of want to go back there. And it's interesting. There are club nights where Gen Z will listen to all this type of music. Faux stalgia. It's not nostalgia. They weren't there in the first place. It's not like school disco when people used to go and listen to the hits that were around when they were. When they were kids. It's almost like a false memory kind of in that way that boomers think that some boomers think that they were in World War II when famously guys you weren't. But much less annoying than that.

[Richard Osman]

So you're saying there's a lot of 25 year olds who think they saw Nirvana at the Brighton Escape Rooms or they.

[Marina Hyde]

They didn't. I don't know. They wish they had.

[Richard Osman]

It was the Escape Club. I just called it the Escape rooms. That's terrible. 16 year old me would be.

[Marina Hyde]

Would hate you.

[Richard Osman]

Brighton Escape Rooms is something very different.

[Marina Hyde]

But it's that it's yearning again that we talk about. I don't know if you've heard this word that's like a big sort of Trend word of 2026 friction maxing the idea to kind of shun digital convenience and go back to things like vinyl. But the music that comes from these times. They have such a suspicion, a deep suspicion and cynicism. Gen Z about music from now because people aren't understand so much of what machines and computers are capable of. And so even manufactured bands from the past. You know obviously people are put together on a TV show are more authentic than artists now who have come up in a non manufactured way.

[Richard Osman]

I've talked before about AI is there's a time before it and a time after it and the time before we know it was made by human beings and that starts to become a premium and it's already happening.

[Marina Hyde]

You're so right. They just feel like it sounds more authentic and the sounds have become so computerised or so overproduced or maybe that they know when it was made and therefore they're just suspicious of it. And there is another thing that's interesting with Gen A below them. Gen A 70% of Gen A have millennial parents and they have a kind of shared culture. They listen to the same Things, they are totally time blind. They literally don't care when the music came from. They're not. They're not like, you know, we were where we wanted to be, listening to the things that came out now. And like, some stuff are, you know, and obviously you get older and you think, oh, actually, you know, whatever things my parents like were cool, but. But there's none of that sort of sense that you have to reject everything that came before you. Artists that create kind of whole worlds, their music is particularly conducive to being caught again by these new. Think of someone like abba. They're so Their own world. Does it matter where they came from?

[Richard Osman]

You look at the top 20 album charts at the moment, which is physical sales of albums, which is where you would expect the newer, younger bands to be. Because you have to, you know, you actually have to buy these things in the top 20. You have got Queen, you have got Elton John, you've got Fleetwood Mac, you've got Oasis, you have got abba, you've got Linkin park, for heaven's sake. You know, all of these legacy acts just stick around those. You know, there are albums there that have been in the culture.

[Marina Hyde]

They do stick around with their fans. They're rediscovered by. They're being rediscovered by young people. Abbott is massive with under 21s.

[Richard Osman]

I would say, are massive.

[Marina Hyde]

Yeah, you're right.

[Richard Osman]

We're not Americans.

[Marina Hyde]

Abbott are massive with under 21s.

[Richard Osman]

That's like when you watch the World cup and they say, England is playing great here. You think, no, England are playing great. And actually they're playing badly. But it's. It's our.

[Marina Hyde]

Well, get used to it. For the. But a third of Beatles listeners are under 28. There's certain bands that just, like you were sort of laughing about Linkin Park. Arctic Monkeys always have young fans. Cause a lot of artists want to move forward. They're kind of propulsive. And you live through this, you tour it and then you want to make something new and you don't want to go back. And the ones who are doing the best now are the ones who are not sort of afraid or precious about the decontextualization of their music. You know, not saying, oh, it's a moment in time, it's a new moment in time. And you better let new people discover it. They also discover it via sync. Sync is obviously the licensing of music to be used in film, TV soundtracks. And it is an absolutely huge window of discovery now. There's so many retro TV shows say there's Things like Derry Girls, Stranger Things, obviously, the Behemoth where people are finding tracks because of that. And then they're going. They're doing a catalog dive because of that. So sometimes those moments are just like a flash in the pan for the industry and they can't really do anything with it. There are plenty of other occasions where they can kind of build it into a campaign for an artist. And if you look at someone like Kate Bush, who's running up the hill, wasn't just used, though. I mean, that's the dream for an artist. It's not just used in season four of Stranger Things. It's an actually really significant plot point and a part of the whole emotional arc of it all and is intimately bound up with the story. And she, I think at the last count had got something like 10.8 million so far from that.

[Richard Osman]

And I thought that's a great person for it to go to, by the way.

[Marina Hyde]

You couldn't be happier. And that people are discovering her. I mean, she, again, she is iconic in that way that I said about Britney. She is there. And it's such a created world and you can discover. And when you discover it, you go on a deep dive into it and you understand it. And it doesn't matter that she wasn't on your Top of the Pops and that you don't even know what Top of the Pops is. It doesn't matter because it's just a. It's a. It's a whole world and you want to lose yourself in it.

[Richard Osman]

We have definitely reached a tipping point where new music is no longer the thing. And, you know, if you go back, if you want to watch an old Top of the Pops on BBC4, it was all new stuff, new stuff, new stuff. New bands coming along all the time, you know, new, you know, new eras, so much stuff happening. And now, of course, you know, you'll get. Taylor Swift brings out a new album. You know, Bruno Mars will bring something out. Bad Bunny or bring something out. Now, of course, you can go back. There's a reason why this generation finds the Beatles, because they listen to it and it turns out it was the best music of that era. And it's been. And it's better than almost all the music since that era. Definitely a tipping point, right? It's definitely the tipping point. Happened four years ago. Yeah, five years ago.

[Marina Hyde]

I remember in that when we were talking to Adam Curtis about Shifty and we. We're talking about the sort of the birth of remixing and just that. And he said, I really feel that there was a sense that we kept pushing culture through the same thing and just finding different ways to look at it. This is. I definitely feel this now that we're almost stuck and lots of people, including in the music industry, feel it's. It's strange, you know, a new thing's really a fewer and fewer new things going to be created because people are just finding different ways is to rediscover the past.

[Richard Osman]

Well, Agatha Christie still sells 20 million books a year and will do forever now. That was going to happen to pop music at some point. You know, we still. If you're. I'm. I'm 55. And there was still the sense in the 70s and certainly the 80s, that music was still stretching its legs, was still finding out what it was, still reacting against the previous generation. You know, then you have punk and you had, you know, the new romantics and this idea that the story was still being written. There are lots of amazing young new bands now releasing great records, and I always seek out new music, but it feels like the story, such as it is, has been written.

[Marina Hyde]

But so much of that music was a comment specifically on its times. And as I said, that's what you're having to persuade artists of that. No. Yeah. It doesn't matter if this was a sort of punk thing now. People like it for some completely different reason. And it's whether you think there's enough of contemporary engagement, of frontline music, engagement with its own times, or whether we're just being narcotized by this kind of nostalgic journey into a place that many of us never even were in the first place.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah, it feels like what I call catalog is taking over from. From the sort of. That kind of raw fury of new music.

[Marina Hyde]

Yeah. The big huge decade at the moment that is master of all its surveys is the Noughties, which is strange because it's. It's.

[Richard Osman]

I don't know, it's. The noughties for me are lost. The 80s, I know the 90s. I'm pretty much on top of the noughties for me. I couldn't tell you anything that came out about.

[Marina Hyde]

Oh, you could. It's. There's a lot of Britney, but it's that. It's the particularly toxic. It's such a toxic area. Well, it's. Yeah, it's celebrity culture that decade, particularly, I think. I think it's. Yeah, I said before culture and Islamic fundamentalism.

[Richard Osman]

Oh, wow.

[Marina Hyde]

But actually the financial crash, stealing in in 2008. Is it? Yeah.

[Richard Osman]

Oh, I remember that we played that amazing game Hitster. Have you played that? It's a really, really cool game that's on your got phone and you. You play music and you've got a series of cards and you have to put them in order of the years that they happen. You play it in teams. And honestly, anything, if it's 70s, 80s, I can tell you the exact year. I can almost tell you the month as soon as it gets to, you know, I would say the Timberlake era. I'm like, oh, I don't. Yeah, I know.

[Marina Hyde]

Once he decouples from end thing.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah, exactly. That's. Yeah. Justin Timberlake leaving NSYNC is my. That. That was. That's pretty much when.

[Marina Hyde]

That's it.

[Richard Osman]

Yeah. For music. Any recommendations?

[Marina Hyde]

This week live winter sport. I have been loving. I meant to say this actually last week. Absolutely not understanding anything in the commentary on some really obscure snowboarding event. I've loved the Winter Olympics. BBC are doing it brilliantly. There's a couple of snowboarding commentators, Tim

[Richard Osman]

Woolwood and Ed Lee, who've done an answer for us on our Q and A before.

[Marina Hyde]

Yes, they have lovely boys. Absolutely hilarious. I enjoy that. I saw Arcadia, Tom Stoppard's Arcadia, which has been revived. And I saw it the Old Vic, which I absolutely loved. But for me, the play is beyond a masterpiece. It's absolutely extraordinary. It is the absolute star and I found it was absolutely wonderful to see that. And I'm also very much enjoying Mackenzie Crooks.

[Richard Osman]

That's what I was going to recognize if I can. You know, Mackenzie Crooks is such an interesting guy, such a great writer, and he's got such a particular worldview. That show is brilliant. It's almost impossible to explain what it's about because it's about something very unusual. But what it's really about is about human beings. Got Pierce Quigley playing a guy who's working in a DIY store. His life has sort of collapsed. All sort of sorts of mysteries going on. Definitely going to be a huge cult sitcom because it's great. I think it really has a chance to be a big mainstream sitcom. And one of the reasons firstly is Mackenzie Crook's. You know, his, his. His whole vibe is very mainstream, but it's got Michael Palin right in the middle of it playing. Playing Pierce Quickly's dad and playing him brilliantly and weird. It's on BBC2 and very little on BBC2 now. And I know they're trying to put a little bit more on and that idea of BBC have got less Money, but they're spending it on, you know, fewer and fewer things. But, you know, the quality control has to be very high. And certainly the quality control on that, I would say is absolutely through the roof. Small profits, it's called with.

[Marina Hyde]

With a ph that I think wraps us up. But we'll be back on Thursday, as always with a Q and A, some of which will be a bit of an awards season special. We've got some really interesting answers from some awards season people.

[Richard Osman]

Yes, we've had lots of questions about awards, so we put them to people who know more than us. And also on Friday, for the first time, I'm to start doing a thing where I interview people about books. It's the National Year of Reading this year and, you know, part of. I'm an ambassador for it and so part of my job is to make more people read more things. And so I'm going to interview a few people, ask them about books, book recommendations and so on. So we're piloting on Friday and we're piloting it with me talking to you about your favourite books.

[Marina Hyde]

You just made me sound like a fake guest.

[Richard Osman]

No, you're not a fake guest. No, because imagine if you didn't do this podcast. You'd be an amazing guest. They'd be like, marina Hyder said yes. I'd be like, oh, my God, you never hear her, do you? You see, like she writes all that stuff and she's really funny but you never actually hear her on something. I'd be amazed to hear what her voice sounds like. So, yeah, I look forward to talking to you about books. You'll have some book recommendations and yeah, we'll see if that works as a format and then I'll. Then I'll do it with other people.

[Marina Hyde]

Oh, I'll make it work.

[Richard Osman]

Oh, I don't doubt that for a second. I don't doubt that for one second. Alright, everybody, see you on Thursday.

[Marina Hyde]

See you on.

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