B (24:58)
with me, Steph McGovern and with me, Robert Peston. Now, you've been meeting with some absolutely fascinating leaders from the retail industry. You mentioned it earlier in the first half, and I want to ask you a bit about that, get some more detail from you about their mood and their, and their plans. But before we get into that, I just thought it was worth reflecting a little bit on those growth figures, those GDP figures that you published earlier this month, which were a bit better than analysts were expecting. In the first quarter of this year, there was growth of 0.7%. That's 0.7 of a percent of a percentage point. Doesn't sound big, but it is significantly greater than the kind of bumping along the bottom we had for the second half of last year. And it's a little bit more than analysts were expecting. They were actually expecting 0.6%. So to be clear, this wasn't the great positive surprise, but there are sort of two or three issues that spring to mind about this. One is, is it sustainable? Because if we were going to get back to those kind of rates of growth every quarter, that would be a return to much faster growth. It would be growth of more than 2% a year, which is way more than the bank of England or the Office for Budget Responsibility have been forecasting. And it's way more than we've been experienced really since the financial crisis. Now, there are reasons, I'm afraid, to be skeptical that this is the great bounce back. One is because there's no actual rational reason for it that I can think of. But secondly, there are some other drags around the place. This is the quarter before national insurance goes up, before the national minimum wage goes up. So it's the quarter before employers have these costs heaped on them. It is also the quarter in which our exporters would have been, and there's some evidence of this in the statistics, would have been shipping as much as they could to America to avoid Trump's tariffs. So there will have been a bit of a, it doesn't account for all of it, but there will have been a bit of a positive boost from an increase in trade to avoid the tariffs. And of course, once the tariffs came in, that would have gone into Significant reverse. And, of course, it is just all before the great shock to global confidence of Trump's Liberation Day. So I think the rational thing to say is, thank you very much. It's great that the economy turns out to be in better shape than people feared, but things may get a bit worse. Again, I think it is important to say that, you know, the evidence of the first quarter is we're not in meltdown, and there's a very gloomy people out there who thought we were, and we're obviously not, but I think things will slow down again. There is one other point, though, I just. That I think is worth just making. Let's just say I think it's very, very unlikely. But let's just say that we are lucky enough to be in a period where growth will be in that sort of 0.7 kind of territory. Yeah. Per quarter, if that were the case. It's inevitable that, given the bank of England's view of the capacity in the economy, which underpins its view about whether any level of demand is going to boost inflation or not, there's no question that if that is where growth and demand are going to settle, that the bank of England would keep interest rates higher for longer, and market interest rates would be higher for longer. And that, I'm afraid, would mean, quite apart from anybody with a mortgage being a little bit upset, also means that poor old Rachel Reeves would still have a problem because, you know, on the one hand, very low growth is bad for her because it means tax revenues are lower than they would otherwise have been. That makes it harder for her to hit her fiscal targets. But equally, given how much the government has borrowed, interest rates being higher for longer is very bad for the government because it means they have to pay out more money in interest to their lenders. So she's sort of down both ways. She's sort of in a vice where very low growth is bad for her, but really good growth could be bad for her as well. And it's. That's that leave that leaves me feeling depressed, because we've got ourselves into this really terrible position where the pretty much the best thing for the treasury in the short term is mediocrity is a mediocre performance, which is absolutely not what we want. And it's probably the best way of explaining why her fiscal rules are so