Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Money
Episode 175: Does Trump Spell The End Of Net Zero?
Date: May 25, 2025
Hosts: Robert Peston, Steph McGovern
Guest: Professor Lord Nicholas Stern, leading economist and climate expert
Overview
In this episode, Robert Peston and Steph McGovern are joined by renowned economist Professor Lord Nicholas Stern to discuss the economics and politics of climate change, especially in the context of shifting global leadership and the threats posed by political forces like Donald Trump. The conversation addresses the urgency of net zero targets, the real progress (and backsliding) among major economies, the role of new technologies, and the behavioral and structural changes needed to achieve climate goals. It’s a frank discussion of global risks, opportunities, and the political will needed—or lacking—in the face of climate change.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
The State of Climate Politics and Leadership
- The Changing Tone Among World Leaders
- While some politicians are downplaying climate risks today, others (notably in China) remain focused on them due to local vulnerabilities.
- "[China] takes this very seriously for very good reason..." — Nicholas Stern (03:25)
- China’s Role as Emissions Leader and Innovator
- China is simultaneously building new coal plants and massively expanding renewables and nuclear; they’re projected to peak emissions before their 2030 pledge (05:51).
- "Their emissions will probably stabilize about now... they've been adding renewable capacity at a rate of around 300 gigawatts a year." — Stern (04:59, 05:51)
- Europe and the UK’s Stalling Momentum
- Europe appears to be losing urgency in taking action, according to Stern (04:29).
- The UK struggles with slow nuclear development and dependency on expensive, imported energy.
Renewables vs. Nuclear: Speed Is Key
- Renewables as the Immediate Solution
- The next 10 to 15 years are critical. Only renewables (wind, solar, battery, grid upgrades) can scale fast enough to meet near-term targets (07:27).
- "That's why nuclear is not the first thing to discuss... the first thing is how we can build zero-carbon capacity quickly—and that's renewables." — Stern (06:42–07:30)
- Nuclear's Limited Role in the UK
- Nuclear should be part of the long-term story, with an emphasis on small modular reactors (SMRs), but it won't impact immediate emission reductions due to slow deployment (07:58).
- "It'll be small modular reactors. That will be probably the future of nuclear in the UK." — Stern (08:01)
Public Engagement, Fatalism, and Political Pressure
- Climate Change Becomes Tangible
- Stern notes the public is experiencing climate impacts more directly, but the public's urgency hasn’t translated into sustained political pressure (08:56, 12:00).
- "This is the growth story of the 21st century... clean is already cheaper than dirty, across electricity and much of surface transport." — Stern (09:19)
- Youth Protest Fades, Fatalism Rises?
- Peston queries whether the decline in youthful climate protest signals a new fatalism—Stern notes some evidence for this but asserts concern remains high among the young (12:19–13:37).
- "We have to constantly discuss, constantly bring to attention, marshal the evidence..." — Stern (13:40)
- Political Action Needs Constant Pressure
- Politicians only respond to pressure. The climate movement must keep up both public understanding and organized political advocacy (13:40).
Energy Markets, Structural Barriers, and Price Signals
- Perverse Pricing Keeps Dirty Energy Competitive
- UK energy market design means consumer prices are often set by gas, not renewables, obscuring real cost advantages of clean energy (15:00–15:40).
- “Our pricing structure... does not reveal [the fact that clean is cheaper].” — Stern (15:40)
- Transitional Cost Myths
- There’s confusion—fostered by political rhetoric—about why bills are high: it’s the legacy cost and overdependence on gas, not the transition to net zero (15:54).
- "It's very important that we get those arguments across that the clean is cheaper than the dirty." — Stern (16:33)
- Policy Recommendations
- Reform pricing away from pure marginal cost, consider backing up power contracts, and possibly shift transition costs more onto gas use or general taxation (17:00–17:25).
- "[Shift] away from the marginal cost pricing... you should be able to make contracts..." — Stern (17:00)
The Trump Question: Can Progress Continue?
- Is a Climate-Hostile US President the End for Net Zero?
- Progress can and will continue despite Trump, both within parts of the US and globally (17:31).
- "There is... yes, there is. The good folk of Texas will be investing... in solar and wind. Cities and states in the US will continue, as they did during the last Trump presidency." — Stern (17:34)
- China and Europe’s Resilience
- China is leading on EVs, renewables, and even grid/storage. Europe is pushed by energy security concerns (17:34–19:22).
- North Africa’s Role in Europe’s Clean Energy Future
- Expect increased solar exports (via cables) from North Africa to Europe for energy security and emissions targets (19:00).
- "North Africa is going to be a major source of electricity for Europe." — Stern (18:34)
Global Finance and the Role of Development Banks
- Multilateral Institutions Can Lead Without US
- With the US stepping back, other global banks (AIIB, EIB, NDB/BRICS, IDB, CAF) can and should triple lending for clean energy, especially in Africa (19:22–21:07).
- "[Africa's] total electricity capacity... is less than China's annual increase... This is a fantastic opportunity to really get electricity across Africa." — Stern (20:58–21:10)
Contested Technologies and Behavioural Change
- Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS): Limited but Vital
- CCS is needed for “hard to abate” sectors like cement; large-scale or power generation CCS still unproven (24:02–24:56).
- Direct Air Capture and Sustainable Aviation Fuel
- Direct air capture is technically possible but currently too expensive; sustainable aviation fuel development lags behind green steel and electricity (24:53–25:25).
- The “Cost of Flying” Debate
- Stern calls for higher airfares to reflect climate damage; acknowledges the fairness challenge but argues pricing must change (26:03–26:48).
- "People should pay for the damage that... they do... Airfares should go up, but they won't go up so far as to prevent [all] people altogether." — Stern (26:03–26:48)
- Investment for Systemic Change
- To decarbonize, UK should invest another 2–3% of GDP in green infrastructure and energy—investments Stern terms “wonderful” (27:55–28:41).
Geoengineering: A Dangerous Distraction?
- Stern’s Clear Warning
- Geoengineering is “spectacularly unproven,” carries enormous unknown risks, and governance would be nightmarish—especially if billionaires act unilaterally (29:17–32:24).
- "What you don't know is what happens to the climate when you disrupt it in such a violent way." — Stern (30:27)
- "That is the megalomaniacs taking charge of our world and subjecting us to great risk." — Stern (32:24)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On China’s Net Zero Push:
“Their emissions will probably stabilize about now... they're adding renewable capacity at a quite phenomenal rate. They've been adding renewable capacity at a rate of around 300 gigawatts a year.” — Professor Lord Nicholas Stern (04:59)
- On the False Narrative About the Cost of Net Zero:
"The reason our prices are so high is because of the basis on fossil fuel... not the transition [to net zero]." — Stern (16:33)
- On Trump and US Climate Action:
“Cities and states in the United States... will continue [with clean energy], as they did during the last Trump presidency.” — Stern (17:34)
- On Realistic Climate Policy:
“One person can say ‘I don’t care if you think it’s risky. I don’t.’ And then go and do it. And that is extremely dangerous. That is the megalomaniacs taking charge of our world and subjecting us to great risk.” — Stern (32:24)
- On Public Attitudes:
“Are [people] seeing [the transition] strongly enough yet to make the kind of protest and pressure that will be necessary? No.” — Stern (13:40)
Key Timestamps
- 03:01 — Opening the climate conversation with Nick Stern
- 04:29 — China’s climate action and emissions
- 06:42 — Nuclear vs. renewables: urgency and deployment speed
- 08:56 — Making climate change feel real to the public
- 12:00 — Youth protest & fatalism
- 15:00 — Energy market structure and reform
- 17:31 — The “Trump question:” is global progress possible?
- 19:00 — North Africa as Europe’s solar powerhouse
- 20:58 — The critical role of international development banks
- 23:47 — The challenge of behavioral change and CCS
- 26:03 — The price and fairness of flying
- 27:55 — Investment needed to achieve net zero
- 29:17 — Geoengineering: risks and governance
Tone & Style
The episode is rich with expert insight but accessible, mixing realism and urgency with pragmatic optimism. Stern is measured yet inspiring, frequently steering the conversation towards solutions and the imperative of political pressure, while the hosts challenge him on politics, feasibility, and public engagement. The banter around terminology ("cables and pipes") adds a human, even playful note to a broadly serious and nuanced discussion.
Final Word
This conversation underscores the complexity of the net zero challenge and the need for sustained policy effort, public engagement, technological progress, and thoughtful global cooperation. Despite daunting obstacles—including political headwinds—Stern remains cautiously hopeful, insisting that with the right investments, understanding, and pressure, progress remains not only possible but essential.
For listeners interested in energy policy, climate politics, or global economics, this episode provides a compelling, clear-eyed analysis with tangible suggestions for moving forward, even when the headlines seem bleak.