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The Rest Is Money
264. Why the chair of Iceland Foods is not worried about their energy bills
00:43:43
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- [00:01]
A
But why is it always us having to suffer pain? None of us can control whether the Strait of Hormuz opens or not, but yet we take the hit for it, because in order to control inflation, interest rates go up, and that's people with mortgages and even people who pay rent.
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B
Donald Trump makes his Truth social announcement block capital letters, that he thinks there's going to be a peace deal with Iran. Fifteen minutes before that, there are these massive bets on the oil price falling and massive bets on share prices rising. We're all waiting to see whether America remotely still has, you know, functioning regulatory institutions such that a proper investigation takes takes place. But, I mean, the great worry about America, you know, I showed on itv it just isn't a functioning democracy anymore. Hello, and welcome to the Rest Is Money, with me, Robert Peston.
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A
And with me, Steph McGovern. Now, on the last podcast, we were talking about Richard Walker, who is the executive chairman of Iceland Foods. He's also the government's cost of living champion, which he started in February this year. But we were talking about his suggestion to put a cap on the profits of energy and oil companies to stop them cashing in. So we thought, why not? Let's get him on to talk about this himself. So that's who we've got on the show today, Rob, isn't it?
- [01:32]
B
It is. And look, we've all got soaring or the potential for soaring cost of living on our minds because of Trump's war in Iran. Poor old Richard. He started when he thought the cost of living might be falling. Maybe it's easy. Maybe he thought it'd be easy to be our champion for the cost of living. But Bloominelle, it's a big job now. So we really want to know what Richard Walker is saying to the Prime Minister about how to protect our living standards.
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A
So here's our interview with Lord Richard Walker.
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B
Richard, great to have you back on the show. You're now, I think something like the Prime Minister's cost of living champions are. I'm not quite sure what the title is. You can tell us what that is, But I suppose where we wanted to start, everybody's really anxious about the impact of Trump's Iran war on the economy on our living standards. I suppose. I just want to ask you, how anxious are you, the living standards, particularly of those on lower incomes? More vulnerable people are really under threat.
- [02:35]
C
Yeah. It's interesting, like, what a difference a month makes. And we've had inflation figures out this morning which kind of show stability decline, but of course, they were measured in February. And I think up until this war there was a bit of a tailwind in the UK economy that we were having forecast to have. Declining interest rates, declining inflation and like I say, a bit of a tailwind. So that was the sort of context. And then of course the Middle east blew up and I think everyone has rightly been concerned and alarmed and it's taught lessons for all of us about how important places like the Strait of Hormuza, which of course was not discussed a lot in mainstream media beforehand. What's my assessment? It's a bit of a mixed bag. I mean, the main thing is there is no need for consumers for households to panic. Why is that? There's actually a very good support package at the moment for the lowest income households with, well, for every household actually with regards to energy, which of course is the big concern that this crisis is driving. And that's because we've got things like the energy price cap, which is in place until July. The poorest households can access the warm home discount. We've got fuel duty frozen until September at least. So there's a whole kind of package there of policies which do provide a short term safety net. But of course it's clear that, that there are concerns. We've seen the price of oil and other commodities bounce around and I suppose the longer this war goes on, you know, the more we'll have to fasten our seatbelts. But at the moment I'm not concerned. And then finally I'm giving a very long answer. But from a business perspective, we are in quite a different place to 2022. We were caught out as a business. Those fridges and freezers use a lot of electricity and energy. We were quite unhedged in a lot of our energy positions. Now we' pretty much fully hedged actually up until through to next year. So there's no impact on our business. We're obviously a big business. It's not the case for all businesses, especially SMEs, but I am quite confident that there won't be any near or medium term impacts on our business and therefore fed through to the consumer. And also there's no supply chain issues because none of our product comes through the Strait of Hormuz. That's purely oil and bit of fertilizer.
- [05:19]
A
This episode is brought to you by Octopus Energy. Now, you know, we love talking to entrepreneurs on this show. So with us is the founder of Octopus Energy, Greg Jackson. Right, I'm going to start with this. If you could change one thing to help Britain's economy grow. What would it be?
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C
I'd love to see pension funds putting
- [05:37]
A
more money into British businesses.
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C
Over the last 25 years, they've fallen from 40% of their investments going to British businesses to 4%. That's bad for business here.
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A
It's bad for our stock market, but
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C
it's also bad for pensioners. In fact, a Canadian pensioner will get almost double the pension from the same amount invested as a British pensioner. We need to sort that.
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A
Nice one, Greg. Well, thanks to Octopus Energy for powering this episode of the Rest Is Money.
- [06:09]
B
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- [06:43]
A
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- [08:22]
C
Look, I'm not tone deaf to the, to the pressures that could be coming down the track. I was just kind of explaining the position at the moment for our, for our business. But of course the food retail industry operates on razor thin margins and that there isn't a lot of wriggle room, that's for sure. You know, of course I'm, I'm concerned and monitoring this situation and I think that's why it's really important that the government does everything it possibly can do to protect its citizens. Otherwise, what's, what's the government for? And my, my role within that is to try and inject a bit of pace and urgency to make sure that things are happening and moving as fast as they can.
- [09:08]
A
Now, Richard, we last had you on in February 2024 in your role as the Iceland boss, which, you know, you still chair there, but since then you've become the government's cost of living champion. That was. You were appointed to that in February this year. What does that job involve? What is it?
- [09:25]
C
My role is to bring an outside voice, bit of critical thinking and ask uncomfortable questions to government as a champion. I'm also there to try and bang the drum on the good policies that are happening, but also raise the agenda on issues that I think the government should look at as well. It's unpaid. I'm not a minister, I'm not bound by collective responsibility and therefore I am a bit of an outsider and I want to remain so. I don't want to be kind of subsumed and sucked into the groupthink of the centre. And it is a bit of an innovative relationship and role, to be honest, and we're finding our way with it. But I think it's important at times like this to have a bit of critical thinking, a critical friend and an outside opinion on stuff. In terms of who I report to, it's Director Kier. He's a busy man. I'm not pretending I see him every day. I did see him on Monday, but they're taking this role very seriously. It's not just a ceremonial thing and I think that direct access to the top table is really important to make sure that my ideas are heard, but also people like my customers and people around the country. Iceland's a great barometer of Britain because we see and hear the issues across our 5 million customers a week, our 1,000 shops. So we're sort of tapped into every community and I want to bring that
- [10:55]
B
voice to Westminster, your customers and how they're feeling. What we did hear from the Chancellor of the Exchequer when she gave her statement of Parliament on how she is preparing for what could be quite a severe shock to the British economy and British living standards and quite a long period of difficulty. And what she said was that if they have to create a subsidy to bring down household energy costs, to help people pay their heating bills, pay their power bills, she will focus that, she will target that on those with lower incomes. Those with bigger incomes won't get help. Have you given some thought? Because obviously this is a crucial issue about how one would define essentially those who need the help. Because the risk, when you're saying means testing, targeting in this way, is quite a lot of people who don't think of themselves as wealthy will be in trouble. I mean, I saw Capital Economics today said they expected energy costs to go up 30%. Now we're in territory where it's very difficult to make a scientific prediction. It is, because on any given day we're seeing 20 percentage point swings in the oil price. Right.
- [12:29]
C
Iran have said non hostile vessels can now pass through the Straits. So you never know, things might actually improve as well.
- [12:35]
B
A bit. Yeah. But on this question of. Because you are, it's your job, right, to advise them on the cost of living. Right. So what would you say to them about which cohort, which group of people need to be supported?
- [12:54]
C
Yeah, there's obviously choices that need to be made. I don't directly have my hand on any lever and certainly I'm not writing policy in that regard, fiscal policy, but as a broad concept, I do think it's right that given the limited headroom we have as a country, any intervention in government money that has to be spent needs to be spent wisely. And what we saw in 2022 with the trust Government was a very blunt instrument approach where everyone, including people like me, got support, which doesn't seem right. And I think it costs the taxpayer north of £40 billion. So I think it's right as a concept to look at targeting the most vulnerable households and those who need it most. Now, of course, being cognizant of the squeeze middle and exactly how that looks, needs to be worked out by the policy teams and the Treasury.
- [14:02]
A
But as you say, Richard, your business, as you describe it, as the barometer of Britain, you will see from your customers that there are A lot of people who are working poor who don't qualify for any benefits, who, you know, quite often I see in our local food bank, a lot of the people there have jobs, don't qualify for benefits and are really, really struggling. So how, you know, how are we going to work this out in any meaningful way? Because I know what you're saying about rich people shouldn't get, you know, any help or any subsidy. But how do you define who is, who is rich and who isn't these days? Because if it is based on benefits, that is going to push a lot of people into trouble who are, you know, and they're not even middle, to be honest. They're just above the threshold for benefits. They're still struggling on low incomes and having to use food banks.
- [14:54]
C
Yeah, I think. I think you make some really important points there, Steph, because the cost of living is not just about the cost of stuff and the very poorest households. It is also a sense and a feeling that life is a grind. And actually life can be a grind and a struggle for people who do have jobs or multiple jobs and they've got no time and they feel like they've got a government that isn't on their side. So I think it was the economist Amarat Hussen talked about poverty also comes from a sense of injustice and a feeling that a system isn't on your side. So you're right there, and it is very difficult to choose. What I would say is there is already a package of support in place, let's not forget. So people, everyone, including me and those struggling with jobs and not just those on welfare, do get support at the moment through the energy price cap that's going to drop, I think, £150 from April through to July. So there is support there. There is also targeted support for the poorest households through the warm home discount, which is about 150 quid as well. And then of course, we've got the fuel duty freeze to September at least. So there are kind of protections and a safety net currently in place that is helping everyone above and beyond the discussion about what more we might have to do in a targeted way.
- [16:24]
B
I mean, Richard, of course, you're absolutely right. But you will also know that what kills economies is uncertainty. I'd be very, very surprised if Iceland, your business, given the outlook is so uncertain, was currently planning some massive program of expansion. It's the rational thing to do in a period of uncertainty is to.
- [16:51]
C
We are actually, as soon as you mention it, we're open 25, 30 shops a year and creating 30 jobs in every shop and payments.
- [16:58]
B
I'm thrilled, I'm thrilled that you haven't paused that. I'm genuinely thrilled the unborn that. But I, you know, I, I'm afraid that, you know that that won't be universal. Lots of households will be thinking oh my goodness, this looks really bad in the Gulf. That big purchase I was thinking of making, well maybe I'll hold off a bit and, and yeah and just see how things pan out. Similarly with businesses, businesses haven't signed a contract. Many of them will be delaying quite substantial investments. So unfortunately I fear we're already in the grips of what will turn out to be an economic slowdown.
- [17:38]
C
Funny enough, we've got a pretty good real time read on stuff. Our sales last week were a bit slow and food is, is obviously an essential item but some of it is discretionary and I think you're absolutely right to point towards consumers and businesses being a bit hesitant because every time you turn on the news you're seeing the Middle east on fire. So of course that's going to affect sentiment and instability causes worry. I think before this we were in a better position place and we talked about the inflation figures in February which was showing inflation coming down and we were starting to feel like we do have a bit more fiscal headroom and credibility and that stability obviously leads to investment. Now what's going on at the moment is a fax and outside of our control to a large extent. But that's why we. The absolute best resolution here is to push for peace and to try and get as swift end as possible to this conflict so that we can get back to what I think was a green shoots of a trajectory that through this year were it not for the Middle east crisis there were reasons to be more cheerful.
- [18:59]
A
We have very little control over that. I mean I agree it would be great to get peace but you know, there's not much control we have over that. But can I ask then in your. When you are talk into government and you know, you mentioned seeing K on Monday, what did you say to him? Like what? I know you obviously might not tell us everything but like what are you saying to them when they say Richard, what should we do?
- [19:19]
C
I think they're obviously very busy on the big questions but. And they're putting together response packages to that but it also it shouldn't deter and detract all of the work streams and the policies that were percolating which I think will also help with the cost of living. So you know, for me what's happened and it just redoubles the efforts and the focus on making sure that we're looking at everything. And we've talked mostly about energy, but of course the cost of living is everything and a whole range of consumer harms and costs. And I think that's why they still need to do the big and small interventions yesterday. Vet bills capped at a level they're looking at sort of midterm price hikes or loyalty traps or auto renewals where you can opt in, but it's very difficult to opt out of something. Now this all seems trivial compared to what's going on in the Middle east. But I go back to what I said about the cost of living also being a sense and a feeling. I think it's really important to stay focused on all of those interventions that actually the government can and should be doing. And I'm pushing them to and putting more pressure on the regulators to call out bad practice and to push through when businesses are not doing the right thing.
- [20:44]
B
You talked over the weekend about wanting to see responsible behavior from big energy companies. You didn't want to see them making excessive profits out of the current crisis. I suppose A. What did you mean by that and what would you. I mean, it sounded as though you wanted another tax imposed, a sort of super. What you did say a sort of temporary super tax on these companies. Just talk us through what you had in mind and what do you think is likely to happen?
- [21:14]
C
Yeah, I made some comments on price gouging and temporary profit caps. Probably more accurate would be a temporary sort of crisis driven margin cap. How would that work? Where, you know. Well, countries like Greece have adopted it, where they go across the supply chain from the refinery price to the wholesale price through to the retailer's margin through to the pump price. And we know the input costs on these things and obviously we know the sell price. So they're looking at how that can be policed to make sure that there isn't excessive profiteering. We all talk about the pump price, of course, because it's very visual and affects our daily lives. But there are some interesting odd market behaviors. Without getting too technical. The spot price of polythene jumped 30% last week. That was an industry that had very sluggish demand and overstocks and there was no justification for that. And I think that's happening across a range of petrochemicals. So I think you're right. The government have clearly signaled that's not an idea under current consideration. But I think it is right in my role and I can add value by injecting a bit of pace and urgency and a bit of mischief to call things out and to put people on companies on notice and to say that we, the government, but also the cma, with their enhanced powers they've recently been giving, will be watching and taking action if required.
- [22:51]
A
Do you get any kind of reaction from other retailers and things when you say stuff like that? Like, are any other businesses coming at you going, hang on, Richard, what are you doing? Why, why are you talking kind of curb our profits?
- [23:04]
C
Yes, but I think it's very important in, in life, Steph, to get up the, the right noses.
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A
Can you tell us whose noses you've been up?
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C
Well, it's all out there in the, in the public domain. You know, I've been called a lot of things the last couple of days, from totally uneducated through to much worse, unrepeatable things. But, you know, I've started a debate and I, I'm, I have hopefully injected some discussion and urgency around the issue and I am fully aware that not all of my ideas will be implemented by the government. But I do passionately believe that change needs to start happening quickly and that's why I was appointed to this role.
- [23:46]
B
Can I ask you. Because we had Jurgen Meyer on the podcast comparatively recently. He's great, he runs GB Energy for the government. And I was quite struck that he has said publicly that he thinks it would be helpful for the government to allow more development of North Sea oil and gas. I mean, Ed Miliband's position is basically, even if we did that, it wouldn't bring the price of oil and gas down very much for UK consumers, because that, you know, it's the world, it's the sort of world energy price that matters. But, you know, the counterargument to that is if there is more oil and gas supply in the European market, prices will come down a bit. And secondly, that would generate really a lot of tax revenue. I mean, I'm assuming that if you had a super tax on your energy companies, your idea would be the proceeds that revenue would help subsidize bills. Similarly, if you open up the North Sea, quite apart from the increased supply of oil and gas, there would be a significant increased tax revenue, which again, could be used to lower consumer bills. So I just wondered if, like Jurgen, you think that Ed Miliband should be a bit more flexible, a bit more open to more North Sea oil and gas production.
- [25:09]
C
So obviously the crisis is right now and I Don't know how long it would take for this oil and gas to come on stream. I presume it would be quite a long term investment program. But all of the points you make are right and there's two sides to this coin because if there's supply issues then we've got an untapped supply right in the water next to us. But also I think the Middle east conflicts and Russia and, and highlights the absolute necessity as a nation that we need to, as Edward say, get off the fossil fuel roller coaster and have domestic energy security. And that to me is patently clear.
- [25:59]
A
But we're not doing that fast enough, are we? You can't just like kind of switch off, you know, as Jurgen said to us, you know, you can't just switch off one and expect the other to work. We're not there yet, are we? And we're too dependent on energy from other sources.
- [26:11]
C
Yeah, we'll be producing gas to 2050. I mean you say we're not going too fast enough but the bill payer is currently sucking up all the pain to get to clean power by 2030, which is a very aggressive fast timescale. In other countries it's put more into general taxation. I do want to push the treasury and Desnes Miliband's department about looking at green transition bonds and how we might be able to bring in a third route. If you've got the bill payer general taxation. But why not try and use the power of private finance to help with this transition? So anyway, with regards to the ultimate question, should we drill more in the North Sea? It is right to say that we're a price taker, not maker but do you know why? Because I don't. I mean, yes, it goes onto the global market, but why? I mean I think there's precedence in other countries where you can carve out local oil and gas at a local price for local consumption.
- [27:21]
B
I mean certainly it is the case, as you say, that we do have a price setting mechanism which many people just think is irrational. The fact that the price is broadly set by the marginal price on the world market of gas, many people say is completely mad given that, you know, we have domestic, we have domestic wind, we have domestic renewables, we have our own oil and gas in the North Sea. And you know, it is a bit, it is a bit crazy that they haven't given more thought to how you reform the price setting mechanism. Part of the reason for that is just we have very, very powerful energy supply companies who are pretty comfortable with the status quo. And in the end, for reasons that are slightly beyond me, the government won't stand up to them. It is odd the extent to which
- [28:17]
C
that mechanism will reset, won't it, once we transition out of fossil fuels? It has to, right?
- [28:23]
B
Yeah, it has to. But that is years away, as you said. And just on your point about it'll take years to tap or to, you know, develop new fields. Of course that is true, but on the Secretary of State's desk at the moment is a proposal to exploit two fields, Rosebank and Jackdaw, which, were he to give permission, they would come online with very substantial resources within a matter of months if he gave permission. So, you know, it's not just about the medium term. It is also about now.
- [28:56]
C
I know they're, they're looking and considering all these options and you're right, we do have fields that could come online very quickly.
- [29:02]
B
Richard, tons more to talk about, but we've just got to go for a quick break and then we'll be back.
- [29:10]
A
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- [31:06]
A
Richard, can I ask you a bit about jobs? Because I know your role in government is cost of living but, but jobs are also a big part of how our economy does and how many people are, you know, need welfare support and, and you as a retailer were right in the heart of the pressure the government has put on the cost of employing people and the bureaucracy around employing people. I'm sure your supermarket chain, like the retail company I have, employs a lot of young people. So you know, the Inc. The large increase we've seen in minimum wage, the national insurance contributions, the business rate changes and everything else is putting a lot of pressure on companies who are then, you know, thinking about employing fewer people or having to let people go. And are you worried about what's happening with employment?
- [31:58]
C
Yes, and particularly youth unemployment and what I called the neat cul de sac. There's, I think there's a moral obligation as well as a fiscal obligation to look at our welfare bill, understand the difference between those making a lifestyle choice and those who really do need the state to support them and help them. But the particular issue I'm concerned about is when a young person gets trapped onto benefits, it's very difficult to get out of that. And that's why I think we need much more focus and attention on that. Yes, certainly in our business at Iceland we do employ a lot of younger people and that's great. And we actually have a very successful apprenticeship scheme. I know a lot of businesses struggle to spend the money and just see it as a tax. Actually it's been really good for us and led to a lot of younger people being promoted through the business and a lot more female promotions actually as well. So it's had a good halo effect for the business. But of course when you put the cost of labor up, that is a pressure on businesses. And some businesses mass market food retailers who employ a lot of people, hotel, hospitality, leisure. That is a particularly tough pill to swallow. And I've been, I've been very, very clear on that in the past on
- [33:39]
B
the sort of related issue of the real economic effects, slowdown, potential rising unemployment and I'm afraid quite a lot of economists are now fearing that unemployment is now going to rise higher than it would otherwise have done because of Trump's war. There is this very interesting issue around interest rates. I mean, before I ask my question, I probably ought to tell people listening that I've got some slightly better news than they might have
- [34:09]
C
been.
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B
Sort of reading about the last Friday, when the oil price went through the roof, government bond prices fell very sharply, which meant the implicit interest rate paid by the government rose. And in the overnight swaps market, which is essentially where investors make bets on what's going to happen to interest rates, we saw this extraordinary thing at the end of last week. The markets were anticipating 3 or 4 interest rate rises this year because of the threat of rising inflation.
- [34:43]
C
You would have been right in that statement six weeks ago.
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B
There was this, as I say, astonishing panic in markets. As I say, talking about these massive interest rates, 3 or 4 massive interest rate rises, 3 or 4 this year. I mean, as I understand it to be absolutely clear, the market just got it completely wrong. I mean, my understanding about current thinking on the Monetary Policy Committee is you're right, Richard, that the two or three interest rate cuts that might have happened if we hadn't had this war almost certainly won't happen. But I don't get any sense. In fact, I'm absolutely certain that members of the NPC are currently of the view that they're simply going to have to hold interest rates where they are. Bank rate, I think, is currently 3.75%. My understanding is they're going to hold that interest rate unless there's a shock in either direction for more or less the whole of this year. So it's a completely different picture from the one that markets were painting. But interest rates at 3.75% are still painful for people. We are seeing an economic slowdown in America. We have a central bank that is actually able to. To balance two things. What's happening to inflation and what's happening to employment. Here the central bank has a single target which is keeping inflation under control. And it does make it very hard for members of the MPC to essentially argue for interest rate cuts, even if the big effect of something like a shock in the Middle east is crushing people's job prospects and living standards. And I just wondered, I mean, arguably this simple mandate has served the UK okay, but do you think actually there is a case for revisiting whether the mandate of the bank of England should just be a bit broader and take into account the impact on lower growth of a shock? More explicitly take account of the impact of on growth, negative impact on growth of a shock like the one we're living through.
- [36:56]
C
I might have to phone a friend on that one. I didn't think we were talking about the. The bank of England. Look, I think, you know, one of the absolute red lines, of course, is their independence and their, their single focus job. So it is not on the table. And I know that that's very important as well for our fiscal credibility as a country. So it's, you know, it's certainly not. Not something that is even being discussed or thought about.
- [37:25]
B
Can I ask you, Steph, then?
- [37:27]
C
Yeah. Steph, this is too difficult for me.
- [37:29]
B
Well, no, because it's because Steph. Steph bangs on about how useless the bank of England is the whole time. So I want to know if she thinks the mandate should change.
- [37:35]
A
Yeah, I do. I think that we're too. We're too siloed and it's too, you know, it's, it's straight jacketed into just being able to, you know, it's mere mandate being about inflation and employment and that. And it's not, you know, Richard, when we talk about inflation and we talk about the cost of living, you know, it's what people pay when they're buying things. Right? That's how people understand it. But what is controlling that is global things going on. We can't control those global situations. None of us can control whether the Strait of Hormuz opens or not. But yet we take the hit for it because in order to control inflation, interest rates go up, and that's people with mortgages and even people who pay rent because landlords will put up rents in order to pay for the mortgages they have, if they have them. And that will automatically take money away again from people with this idea, which I think is out of date, that if they spend less, then prices will come down and everything else. But why is it always us having to suffer pain for things going on in the other side of the world that we have no control of? So that's why I get frustrated with the bank of England, because I feel like the world has changed so much that we cannot control inflation just with monetary policy. Sorry, with monetary policy. With just with, you know, a load of people in a room deciding whether we put up rates or not. It just feels so out of date. And that's what Robert means when I have my beef with the bank of England. Because when you talk to people who are living life, they don't care about gdp, they don't care about what the average inflation rate is they care about whether they can get to work on time, whether they can afford to pay the bills, whether they can buy a prawn ring in Iceland as a treat for the weekend. It's that type of thing, isn't it? And, you know, sorry, that's my. Always my default with Iceland is a pring.
- [39:29]
C
Well, we are, we are the ogs when it comes to prawn rings. You are. We tried to trademark it as well, but that, that didn't work out.
- [39:36]
A
Yeah.
- [39:36]
C
Anyway, no, I, I Do you know what? I will mention that to Kieran, Rachel, and I'll. I'll let you know what, what they say.
- [39:42]
B
I think we can predict what they're going to say, I think, but nonetheless do give us feedback.
- [39:47]
C
But with oil, who knows? You're right, it is outside of our control. Another theory is oil prices may come crashing down, actually, because you can't make any more oil. You just choose whether to drill it today or tomorrow. And it could be that around the world people are suddenly starting to extract a lot more oil. If we do have a sluggish global economy, there might not actually be the demand for a big glut in supply, which might bring the prices crashing down. And there's some experts that are pointing towards that being a possibility as well.
- [40:21]
B
I think it's highly unlikely. Richard. I could be honest with you. I don't know the experts you're talking to. I want to know what they're taking.
- [40:26]
A
Right. We should let you know.
- [40:28]
C
Just doing what you talked about oil futures a while ago.
- [40:30]
B
Oil futures are still predicting the oil will be quite a lot lower in three.
- [40:39]
C
Well, there you go.
- [40:40]
B
They are still predicting they'll be low, but not, I'm afraid, below where they were before the war started. Oil futures are still talking about a pretty significant rise in oil prices throughout this year. Throughout this year. And also, I would just make the point, as somebody who's lived and breathed markets for my entire career, markets are so often so totally wrong at basically predicting the future. I mean, you know, we saw some unnamed individuals. I am just going to get onto this very briefly because it is so blooming extraordinary talking about what markets are telling you. So, you know, I mean, the fact that, you know, 15 minutes before Donald Trump makes his truth social announcement in block capital letters, that he thinks there's going to be a peace deal with Iran, 15 minutes before that, there are these massive bets on the oil price falling and massive bets on share prices rising.
- [41:48]
C
It's outrageous. This is just more indignation about this it's, it's, it's, it's so shocking.
- [41:56]
B
It's so shocking. And so we're all waiting to see whether America remotely still has, you know, functioning regulatory institutions such that a proper investigation takes takes place. But I mean, the great worry about America, you know, actually I said on itv, it just isn't a functioning democracy anymore. And that somehow these people will just get away with making what look like utterly improper and potentially, you know, totally illegal profits. It's running to hundreds of millions. Millions of dollars. Absolutely astonishing.
- [42:28]
A
Yeah. And also, while all of this is going on, no one's talking about the Epstein stuff anymore, are they? So that was a good little curveball by Trump and Caswell.
- [42:36]
B
Okay. We've had our important.
- [42:38]
A
Our therapy session.
- [42:40]
C
That was good. It felt like it as well. It's quite cathartic.
- [42:44]
B
Thank you.
- [42:46]
A
And it was a therapy session towards the end, Richard. Thank you very much.
- [42:49]
B
We'll send you a bill with the normal rates.
- [42:51]
C
Don't apply too much margin to the bill.
- [42:53]
A
Okay, yeah, well, that's a good point, actually. There'll be a lot of people in need of therapy at the moment. We'll put our prices up, Robert.
- [43:00]
B
There's no element of commodity trading with us. It's all high added value stuff. Anyway, look, lovely to talk to you, Richard. We love having you on the show. Come back soon.
- [43:09]
C
Thanks, guys.
- [43:10]
A
See you later. Thank you.
- [43:17]
C
Hey, sorry to interrupt your playlist, but real quick.
- [43:21]
A
This might be better than music. We're talking free stuff.
- [43:26]
C
Yep, actually free. Just download TikTok, search slash free.
- [43:32]
A
Pick items you want, share the link
- [43:35]
C
and watch the price drop to zero. Your song will be waiting.
- [43:39]
A
Your free items won't open TikTok and start slashing now.