The Rest Is Money
Episode 265: Are we due another financial crisis?
Date: March 29, 2026
Host: Robert Peston & Steph McGovern
Guest: Lloyd Blankfein

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation with Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO of Goldman Sachs and Wall Street legend. Hosts Robert Peston and Steph McGovern engage Blankfein on a wide range of economic and market topics: the possibility of another financial crisis, the risks in today’s markets, geopolitical instability, the legacy and culture of Goldman Sachs, the evolution of wealth inequality, the challenges posed by new technologies (notably AI), and Blankfein’s personal journey from working-class Brooklyn to the heights of global finance. The discussion is candid, occasionally humorous, and packed with insights relevant for anyone concerned with the current economic climate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Current Market Uncertainty & Geopolitical Risks

• Market Volatility & Risk Management

  • Blankfein describes extreme volatility in today’s markets, attributing much of it to geopolitical uncertainty, such as conflict involving Iran and US political unpredictability.
  • “At times of extreme volatility, where you’re not sure where things are going, you’re not really in the realm of predicting. You’re more in the realm of contingency planning.” – Lloyd Blankfein (03:23)

• Investing Approach During Turmoil

  • Blankfein recommends prudence, especially for non-professionals:
    • Don’t take risks with funds you might need soon.
    • Opt for safety and cut unnecessary risk in uncertain times.
  • “This would not be a time that you take the most risk… you’d opt for safety and take stock of yourself.” – Lloyd Blankfein (03:42)

• Political Decision-Making and Market Reaction

  • The Trump administration’s unpredictable actions have directly impacted markets, with potential insider trading concerns raised regarding major announcements.
    • “Literally 15 minutes before he puts out that Truth Social post saying he's having peace talks with Iran, massive bets were made on the oil price falling.” – Robert Peston (07:27)
  • Blankfein acknowledges uncertainty but emphasizes contingency planning given the unpredictability of both state actors and markets.

• Market Integrity & Insider Trading Fears

  • The hosts note suspicion around trading activity preceding key political announcements, undermining market trust.

Notable Segment

• Markets & Geopolitics: 02:07–10:55

Is Another Financial Crisis Coming?

• Accumulated Risks & Lack of Recent Crises

  • Blankfein notes that the absence of a major reckoning or crisis in recent years means systemic risks may be piling up, comparing the situation to kindling in a dry forest.
    • “The mere passage of time since the last reckoning in the market creates kindling on the floor of the forest. Some spark can cause a conflagration.” – Lloyd Blankfein (14:26)

• Private Credit Market Fragility

  • Peston references increasingly illiquid private credit funds limiting withdrawals, reminiscent of pre-2008 warning signs.
  • Blankfein describes the main issue: private credit lacks transparency; it's marked "to a model" rather than real market prices, causing nervousness.
  • “How do you get certainty? You sell it… I have to laugh when I hear ‘semi-liquid’ because what does semi-liquid mean? Is that like semi-pregnant?” – Lloyd Blankfein (21:29)

• Differences from the 2008 Crisis

  • Unlike 2008, banks are now better capitalized and not at the center of risk, potentially making a coming crisis less catastrophic.
  • “Banks aren’t at ground zero of this crisis… if banks are in bad shape… it’s hard for governments to reach people. But now, at least banks are in better shape.” – Lloyd Blankfein (19:14–20:25)

• Risk Management Philosophy

  • Goldman Sachs’ approach has always been scenario and contingency-driven, especially in periods where statistical models break down due to unprecedented events.
  • “At times like this, where things are happening that never happened before, your sense of what’s probable or improbable—throw that out the window. All correlations don’t work like that anymore. We’re in a new regime.” – Lloyd Blankfein (11:47–13:56)

Notable Segment

• Financial Crisis & Private Credit: 10:55–22:22

Artificial Intelligence, Tech Bubbles, and Productivity

• AI Investments and “Bubble” Concerns

  • Blankfein is invested with tech hyperscalers, believing AI will be highly productive; but questions linger about whether revenue will justify massive ongoing expenditures.
  • “Is it going to generate revenue that’s going to justify expenditures in some of these companies of over $100 billion a year? ...That’s a real opening question.” – Lloyd Blankfein (16:36)

• Tech Mania Parallels

  • The hosts address the risk that today's exuberance in AI and tech recalls previous bubbles; not all current industry leaders will survive.
  • “You don’t need ten companies, you may need three, and there might be twenty companies pursuing it… some will get written off.” – Lloyd Blankfein (15:56)

Notable Segment

• AI, Tech, and Bubbles: 15:47–17:55

Social Mobility, Goldman Sachs Culture, and Personal Journey

• Blankfein’s Background

  • Raised in public housing, son of a postman, attended Harvard unexpectedly—this background gave him a “striver’s” mindset and imposter syndrome.
    • “I never feel… entitled. I have to remind myself from time to time what my position was and how people regarded me because I don’t think of myself in that kind of way.” – Lloyd Blankfein (24:16–24:42)
    • “I wasn’t thrilled to be there [at Harvard]. I was scared as hell to be there.” – Lloyd Blankfein (26:56)

• Risk Appetite and Upbringing

  • Steph McGovern points out, and Blankfein agrees, that people from less privileged backgrounds often handle risk better—they assume nothing is guaranteed, instilling resilience.

• Goldman’s Shift to Diversity and Philanthropy

  • Goldman actively recruited strivers and encouraged philanthropy; partners were expected to volunteer, pay taxes, and have an impact beyond the firm.
    • “One of the things at Goldman… you became a partner… to make sure you pay your taxes, we’re going to do your tax returns for you.” – Lloyd Blankfein (33:39, 34:38)
    • “If you get an obituary written about you and it’s nine paragraphs long, make sure that no more than three of them touch on Goldman Sachs.” – Lloyd Blankfein (35:26)

• Enduring Influence & “Vampire Squid” Reputation

  • Goldman’s culture is unique—alumni feel a strong attachment, which fosters the firm’s mystique and public suspicion.
    • “We’re like the Freemasons or something. No.” – Lloyd Blankfein (35:57)

Notable Segment

• Career Reflections & Goldman Culture: 23:14–36:52

Wealth Inequality, Populism, & Globalization Backlash

• Wealth Creation vs. Distribution

  • Blankfein draws a sharp line between the financial system’s ability to create wealth and the political system’s failure to redistribute it progressively.
    • “We’ve all done a much better job of creating the wealth and a much poorer job of distributing it.” – Lloyd Blankfein (41:47)

• AI, Job Loss, and Social Safety Nets

  • Widespread adoption of AI risks concentrating wealth and displacing jobs, but governments aren’t adequately preparing to redistribute gains.
    • “Whose job is it to make the taxation system more progressive? … I don’t think it’s the banks’ jobs to do that.” – Lloyd Blankfein (43:54–44:26)

• Globalization Reversal

  • The financial crisis and Covid demonstrated that location of assets and production matter, pushing countries toward self-reliance and away from global integration.

Notable Segment

• Wealth, Populism & Globalization: 39:38–44:26

Leadership, Crisis Management, and Personal Health

• Crisis as Defining Experience

  • Blankfein on leadership: remained at Goldman during the 2008 crisis, managed existential and reputational challenges, then timed his exit to avoid another crisis cycle.

• Dealing with Cancer under Public Spotlight

  • Blankfein recounts being diagnosed with lymphoma while CEO and maintaining secrecy until a public announcement to avoid affecting share price.
    • “It is a material bit of information if the CEO of the company might be… there might be a change of leadership.” – Lloyd Blankfein (44:59)

• Personal Philosophy

  • “No choice, no problem.” Blankfein explains that hard, unavoidable personal decisions are less stressful than trivial choices.

Notable Segment

• Crisis, Leadership, & Illness: 44:26–48:02

The Future of Goldman Sachs and Financial Industry

• Competition & Reputation

  • Goldman remains a “brains-based” institution, not chasing size but focusing on judgment and expertise, even as competitors like JP Morgan and BlackRock have ballooned.
    • “We’re very, very, very big. We’re the biggest investment bank… but we don’t have branches, we don’t have tellers… Everything we do is still along those lines.” – Lloyd Blankfein (49:10)

• Importance of Transparency

  • A key lesson learned: opacity was once a virtue at Goldman but is now recognized as a mistake contributing to public distrust.
    • “Making a virtue out of a lack of transparency… was earlier a virtue at Goldman Sachs, and it’s not a virtue anymore.” – Lloyd Blankfein (52:19)

Notable Segment

• The Future of Goldman Sachs: 48:20–52:22

On Writing His Memoir

• Motivation for Writing

  • Partly for his children, partly for attention and public demystification; Blankfein hopes to combat misconceptions about Goldman and share what makes partnership cultures unique.
    • “Nobody who writes a memoir can feign indifference as to whether they get attention or not. So I must be greedy for attention.” – Lloyd Blankfein (52:37)

• Going Public & Goldman’s Evolution

  • The firm’s transition from partnership to public company was inevitable and necessary, but laden with cultural anxieties.

Notable Segment

• Memoir Reflections: 52:22–54:53

Memorable Quotes

• “At times of extreme volatility… you’re not really in the realm of predicting. You’re more in the realm of contingency planning.” – Lloyd Blankfein (03:23)
• “The market could be wrong, but the market is often wrong.” – Robert Peston (10:55)
• “The mere passage of time since the last reckoning in the market creates kindling on the floor of the forest.” – Lloyd Blankfein (14:26)
• “How do you get certainty? You sell it… Is semi-liquid like semi-pregnant?” – Lloyd Blankfein (21:29)
• “Private credit… I think probably the concern is overdone… but there are issues.” – Lloyd Blankfein (17:55)
• “We’ve all done a much better job of creating the wealth and a much poorer job of distributing it.” – Lloyd Blankfein (41:47)
• “No choice, no problem.” – Lloyd Blankfein (47:41)
• “Making a virtue out of a lack of transparency… was earlier a virtue at Goldman Sachs, and it’s not a virtue anymore.” – Lloyd Blankfein (52:19)

Key Takeaways

• Markets are on edge and genuine crises, while hard to predict, are likely building due to accumulated risks that haven’t been “cleared” recently.
• Today’s risk is less likely to start in banks, more likely to flash in the shadowy, illiquid parts of private credit and technology.
• AI and tech are hugely promising but attract speculative bubbles; not all players will survive.
• Inequality and populism are structurally linked to how financial and political systems distribute (or fail to distribute) massive newly-created wealth.
• Goldman Sachs evolved from a clubby, closed culture to embrace social mobility, philanthropy, and a reluctant openness. Past opacity bred public suspicion—something even its former CEO now acknowledges.
• Blankfein’s career illustrates the unique blend of toughness, risk management, and modest imposter syndrome that marks many Wall Street leaders.

For those who haven’t listened, this episode offers hard-won perspective on cycles of financial upheaval, the responsibilities of leadership, and the persistent challenges posed by politics, technology, and inequality. Blankfein is frank, often self-deprecating, and always focused on preparedness for the unknown.