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- [00:01]
A
This is a visceral issue for the country leading this review into young people, unemployment for the government. If they formed a city, that would be the third biggest in the UK. So it's one in eight from 16 to 24 year olds. So the scale of it is enormous.
- [00:15]
B
There's so many elements to this. But do you genuinely think we're going to see change?
- [00:19]
A
You might have anxiety and depression. That diagnosis shouldn't automatically lead to you being signed off by a GP with a fit note then. Politically, this is a huge issue for the government. Let's remember this is a government that was elected on a one word slogan. What was it? Change.
- [00:51]
B
Hello and welcome to the Rest Is Money with me, Steph McGovern. Now, Robert is currently in the gulf with the Prime Minister at the time of recording this. I'm sure he'll have lots to tell us about it when he's back. So I've been left in charge. And today we have a friend of the show on, Alan Milburn, who's a familiar face in British politics. He served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care under Tony Blair. He was responsible for modernizing the nhs, marrying together parts of the public and private sector. And he is also hot on social mobility as the former chair of the Social Mobility Commission. And in that vein, he's now very much focused on looking at the issues of unemployment and particularly those neets we talk about. You know, the 1 million young people not in employment, education or training. It's been described as a national emergency. So I want to find out from Alan what the problem is and what he's doing about it. So here's my interview with Alan Milburn. Alan, it's great to have you back. You were last on in July 2024. Now, I can't believe that it doesn't feel like two years has gone by,
- [01:56]
A
but, you know, we're not happening, really, has there?
- [01:59]
B
No, I know. I mean, very quiet, very quiet. Honestly, things are changing in the minutes at the moment, aren't they? But what is not changing is your focus and mission to try and work out why there are so many young people not in work and also what we can do about it. So when we last spoke to you, yet you hadn't started this review. Now you are leading this review. I know you're quite far into it, there'll be stuff coming out from it over the next few months, but can you just give us a flavour of what you've been doing and where you're at with it?
- [02:31]
A
Yeah. So I'M leading this review into young people and employment for the government. It's pretty wide ranging, so we're doing it in two phases. I suppose. Phase one is trying to understand who they are. A million young people or thereabouts. If they formed a city, that would be the third biggest in the UK. So it's one in eight and 16 to 24 year olds. So the scale of it is enormous. Who they are, what's going on, where it might go and critically, why do we think it's happening? So that's basically phase one and then phase two we're looking at. Okay, if those are the problems, what are the solutions? So it's a two phase thing and then in between times there's a huge volume of interaction, obviously with young people. I spent part of yesterday with a group of young people talking about their lives, what's going on, their aspirations, their hopes, their dreams. A lot of visits to different parts of the country, particularly where young people who are neat are concentrated because they're in particular places. Maybe we'll come back to that in a bit. Talking a lot to employers, to local authorities, to mayors, to football clubs. Honestly, I tell you what has been really uplifting for me. A lot of it's really depressing because it's really bad and it's getting worse. But what's really uplifting is this is a visceral issue for the country. People are worried about the next generation of young people. I think maybe for the first time, maybe in 100 years, I don't know, people are feeling, parents and grandparents, that their kids might be worse off than they are or the opportunities that they had are not going to be available and people want to do something about it. And that's the reason that I'm optimistic about it. Not just government, government's got an important role to play, but employers, charities, local authorities, communities want to do something about this and boy, oh boy, does something need to be done.
- [04:25]
B
Yeah, that's a really interesting point about how for the first time in a long time, people think that their children are going to be worse off than them. I mean, that's quite. That says it all, doesn't it? Because the whole, you know, the whole thing is that everyone betters themselves. You know, maybe the first time kids go to uni in the family or, you know, the first time they get above a certain pay and income and that is just. God, it says it all that, that people feel so, I guess, pessimistic. Alan, there's loads more I want to talk to you about, but let's go to a quick break. We're proud to say that the rest is money is powered by Octopus Energy. This year. Greg Jackson is back to answer another question. Now this is something that we see a lot that I wanted to ask you about when you're building a business from scratch, like what's the most important thing early on? And what do people get wrong?
- [05:20]
A
Yeah, look, early on, the most important thing is to start building a customer base. Until you've got customers, you have no idea whether the products and services you're offering are going to be the ones that people want. So a lot of people spend far too much time building out pages and pages of business plans, thinking too hard about what they're going to do rather than just doing it.
- [05:39]
B
What surprised you most when you were launching Kraken?
- [05:42]
A
You know, the great fun of launching Kraken was it was the engine that powered Octopus to grow ultimately to the biggest energy supplier in the UK with, I think, the best service. But we were able to license it to our rivals as well. So the interesting thing is the world is more complicated than you think and your competitive competitors will work with you if it's in their interests.
- [06:02]
B
Cheers, Greg. Right, well, you'll be hearing more from Greg throughout the year. But now let's get on with this episode.
- [06:09]
A
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- [06:40]
B
to build up your team to handle the growing chaos at work, use Indeed sponsored jobs. It gives your job post the boost it needs to be seen and helps reach people with the right skills, certifications and more. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Listeners of this show will get a 75 sponsored job credit@ Indeed.com podcast. That's Indeed.com podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. So tell me about the people we're talking about. I mean, again, you know, living in the Northeast and spending a lot of time with young people, I see it myself. But what are you seeing in terms of who these people are and what's happened to them?
- [07:25]
A
So it's 16 to 24 year olds. Things are changing a bit. There are some constants and some things that are changing. So the constants are, look, it's grounded in economic and social inequality. You're a third more likely to be neat as a young person if you're growing up in Middlesbrough, for example, which you're very familiar with, or Hartlepool or Knowlesley in the northwest, near Liverpool or Nottingham or parts of Islington. And so where there is social disadvantage, there are higher levels of NEET for young people. So that's pretty obvious. So neat doesn't begin at the age of 16, unfortunately, it begins much earlier. In fact, when I was in Bradford, they've got a brilliant longitudinal study of 20,000 young people called Born in Bradford, which they set up 25 years ago. I was actually involved with it when I was the Health Secretary and sort of got DNA from these young people when they were babies. They followed their outcomes over time. What's happened to their education? Here's the really depressing thing. When I was there three weeks ago, or one of the guys who's running it, John, said to me, look, I can probably predict with a fair degree of accuracy at the age of three or four who's going to be neat. Not in education, employment.
- [08:38]
B
At the age of three or four?
- [08:40]
A
Yes, at the age of three or four. And so we know, for example, that you're three times more likely to be not in education, employment or training as a 16 or 17 year old if you haven't been school ready at the age of 4 or 5. What does school ready mean? It means that able to put your own coat on, you're able to go to the toilet by yourself, you're able to hold a book, you're able to read a few words. So this is deep, I mean, not just about what's going on in the labor market and we can come to all of that. But this goes back to social inequality, lack of opportunity, places that have been left behind. So this is where it's concentrated. It used to be a phenomenon that was associated more with young women than young men. And that's changed. It's now more young men than it is young women, in good part for good reasons, because rates of teenage pregnancy have fallen. So that's, you know, and so young women are, you know, less likely to have young kids than perhaps they were. So, you know, they're not stuck at home caring for their children. So that's. The profiles change. But the really, really worrying thing that has changed is two Things that are related. The first is there's been a doubling in the number of young people who are neat who report a health condition over the last 10 or 15 years. And very many of them report a mental health or a neurodivergence condition like ADHD or Asperger's or autism. Yeah, autism. So that's a really exponential rise. This is definitely more anxious generation, there's no doubt about that. So that has had a knock on effect into the nature of youth unemployment, because it's no longer about unemployment, it's about detachment. 61% of this, close to 1 million young people are economically inactive. That means that they're not looking for work. And if you're not looking for work, and if you don't have work in your early 20s, the chances that you're going to be in work in your 30s and 40s diminish exponentially. And here's the most shocking statistic I've come across so far of many 45% of 24 year olds who are not in education, employment and training have never had a job. And if you haven't had a job by your mid 20s, your chances of getting a job in your 30s, 40s, 50s has a long term scarring effect. You can quantify it actually. On average they could lose up to a million pounds worth of income during their lifetimes. But that's on the tip of the iceberg.
- [11:21]
B
So basically, if you're a young person and you don't find a job by the time you're 24, which is, you know, this, this measure of 16 to 24 year olds is what we're talking about, you're unlikely ever to, is basically what, what you're saying here.
- [11:35]
A
Yes. So there's a stickiness and very many, not all, not all of these young people end up in the benefit system. About a third of them don't, which is interesting. So we've got about 300,000 so called hidden needs that we know very, very little about. They're not even claiming benefits. So we're trying to understand going on there. But about 600,000 are claiming benefits. The number of young people 16 to 24 who are claiming health and disability benefits has doubled in the last five years. So this is exponential. So there's something profound going on and it's having a long term social effect, it has an economic effect because that's fewer people working at a time of skill shortages, lower productivity, lower levels of growth for the economy. And it obviously has a massive fiscal effect in terms of the Bill to the taxpayer. So all of these things are reasons for deep concern.
- [12:28]
B
The big question then, Alan, is What are these 300,000 people doing that? How are they making money? How are they surviving? Or if they're not making money, you know, how are they living?
- [12:37]
A
Doing a lot of polling and survey work amongst young people who are not in education, employment and training and they're pretty hard to reach. But we're doing a lot of polling or survey, got a small team going out around the country talking to young people who are, who are neat, by the way. I hate that term, but I'm just.
- [12:52]
B
I know, I know it's a bit like Brexit. I hated that when it came and you stuck.
- [12:56]
A
I know, but it's sort of just the short term, just so people know, I've got a small team going out talking, doing face to face interviews with about 400 young people, trying to find out what's actually going on in your life. How do you live? Are you living off the bank of mum and dad? Are you living in the house of mum and dad? And this is, by the way, one of the repercussions of all this. If these young people aren't working, the chances are that they're at home in the family home, they don't leave. That has consequences for family dynamics, but it also has consequences for family income. You know, strain on the bank of mum and dad becomes even bigger over time. So look, there's many reasons to be concerned about it. So those are some of the things that we're finding out.
- [13:39]
B
Yeah, and obviously one of the things that you often hear, particularly from older generations when we talk about young people not being in work is, oh, that's because it's too easy now to go on benefits. That's because they're lazy. Gen Z don't know the born. When I was a kid, you got sent out and you hear all that. From what you're saying, it sounds that maybe the welfare system is too easy to rely on, but that's not the bigger picture you're seeing because what you're saying is this is starting at a really young age.
- [14:09]
A
It is starting at a really young age. And I think I want to avoid the blame game. But if there is a blame game, blaming young people is just such an easy, lazy and in my view, wrong assumption. When I was talking, I was up in Newcastle a month ago and actually where I grew up in bed, which, you know, on the West End of Newcastle, which is a very poor area, and I was talking to a Group of young people there. And, you know, one of the lads was telling me he'd applied for 200 jobs, he'd applied for 200 jobs and he hadn't had, by the way, he hadn't had a job interview. Okay? He hadn't had any feedback. And worse than that, he hadn't had a single response. So this is not lack of effort on his part. He's trying. Now, look, there is a responsibility on young people, like there's a responsibility on parents, and we should be clear about that. If there are opportunities available and there are jobs available, there should be going for them. So there's no doubt about that. But I think the problem is really less about is this a snowflake generation? Are they to blame? Or more what is happening in the labor market and what's happening in the system, which in the end, the state runs from early years all the way through to welfare. And on both sides of that equation, if you like, on the supply side and the demand side, there's a big failure. So the failure on the supply side is that if you think about everything from education, schools, all the way through health just being mental health issue, all the way through to welfare, the question that you've got to ask is, are those systems set up to enable young people to make the transition from schools and education into employment? And the answer is that they're not. And welfare in particular isn't. It isn't. So rather than saying the first question shouldn't be, what is it you're entitled to on benefit, the first question should be, what are you able to do and how can we help you? And you might have anxiety and depression, but that diagnosis shouldn't automatically lead to you being signed off by a GP with a fit note. Then you're on benefit, you get benefit as a child, Child Disability living allowance, about 80% of kids who are on child DLA, then onto adult PIP, which is the adult benefit for people with health and disability issues. And then you're in the system and you're in the benefit system. What we should be asking is a different question, which is, what can you do and how can we help you? How can we support you? If you need a bit of mental health counseling or support, can we make that available to you? Can you work a few hours rather than having to work 40 hours? If you do that, the benefit system currently penalizes you, which is crazy. Could you do an apprenticeship? Oh, you go on an apprenticeship, you lose your benefits. This is mad. Seriously. When you look at the system through that lens, it isn't a system and it's not incentivizing young people to go into work.
- [17:05]
B
So you do think then there is a problem with the welfare system that needs to change 100%?
- [17:10]
A
Absolutely. And it needs, I think probably to be quite profound. So we're looking at that now, what that could look like, but that's only by the time you get into the welfare system that's a failure.
- [17:20]
B
Yeah.
- [17:21]
A
Okay. That's the critical thing, to use the sort of jargon, it's what happens upstream that counts. So what is happening in schools, our schools? Every employer will say to me two things. They'll always complain about the government. Fair enough. And then they'll always say young people aren't work ready. And what do they mean by that? They mean two things. One, young people are not being acquainted earlier enough with the labor market, the disappearance of the Saturday job and all of that. But also they're saying schools aren't setting them up with the life skills, not the academic skills that are required to succeed in the workplace. So that's the real question that we have to look at. Is the curriculum, right? Is the way that schools are regulated, recognized, rewarded, is that setting up young people to be able to succeed in what is a highly competitive and fast changing labor market. So we're looking at that again, as one of the sort of drivers, if you like, that sits behind this, that,
- [18:19]
B
that to me, I mean, this is exactly what I, I care so much about because, you know, you mentioned my hometown, Middlesbrough. That's where I grew up, obviously. And that's where I went to school and saw a lot of, you know, young people who, you know, didn't have the structure at home to be able to do well at school academically. But what, what did help? And you know, I, I talk about this a lot because it's key to why I've done well. You know, I've gone defied the odds to have. And it's because it's not, it's not because I'm special. It's because the school really recognized that we did have skills. They might not be purely academic, but they are skills that are useful in the workplace. Like people who don't have structure at home often are quite good at talking themselves out of situations. So that's a really good communication skill. Or for example, really good at assessing risk because they have to deal with it in a, you know, quite challenging way every day. And again, being able to assess risk is a great skill. But, and it was different for me because we were told what skills were and what were useful employers. And we did have that link with. With industry really early on, because we were sponsored by industry and we had all that. But the worry now is it. It's not like that in Middlesbrough anymore. You know, ours was a bit of a special school, but also now when I'm back there and, you know, work with lots of the young people there, they don't see them having any skills. And that point you make about that disengagement, they just think, oh, it's not, it's not for me. I'm not. You know, if you say to them, well, what are you good at? They're like, oh, no, I'm not good at maths, I'm not good at geography, I'm not good at. And you're like, no, no, no. But what. But that's. They, they're not jobs. You know, you, you, You've got all these other things and, and as you point out with education, it assesses them pretty much based on the academics, and that's where you lose that engagement. Because then people feel worthless and then you can. Public health crisis. But that's not a new thing, Alan, is it? You're not going to be telling the Education Secretary or whoever else in government anything new. And that's my worry is it hasn't changed and this is really dangerous.
- [20:33]
A
Yeah, but I think we're in a perfect storm situation now because you've got this big change when it was just youth unemployment. Youth unemployment very strongly correlated with the economic cycle. So basically, if there was a downturn or a recession or whatever, or economic was low, then employers just turned off the recruitment tap. And the first people to suffer, obviously, were young people coming into the workplace. And then when things picked up, they turned the tap back on and young people came into the employment market again. But if 61% of these people aren't in the labor market, aren't in the market for jobs, you've got a very different phenomenon now. And what you say about schools is right, which is obviously literacy and numeracy are core skills. Without that, you're pretty stuffed in life. So focus on academic standards is really important. But equally, nowadays, we've got to have communication skills, you've got to be able to collaborate, you've got to have agility, because work's changing, you're not in one job for life anymore. All of that's gone. And AI will transform that even more, as we know, over time. So the question is, is the balance right in what Schools are doing and I think a lot of people, not everybody thinks that maybe that balance isn't quite right. And I guess the final point is that, you know, I always look, I came from like you, you know, I came from, you know, I grew up in first of all in Tow Lawn, County Durham, a little mining town and then West End of Newcastle and lots of sort of really very, very poor kids, including me. But everybody had potential. Everybody had something. Everybody had something.
- [22:07]
B
Everyone's got skills, everyone's skills of some sort.
- [22:10]
A
And what you can't have is a school system that sets up a cohort of youngsters to believe, like you were saying, that they're failures, they're not good enough. So how can we get that unloc in each and every one of them to be able to realize their potential? That's the critical thing. I think the final point is what's changed on the demand side in the labor market is equally important because it used to be that when you and I were growing up you could get a Saturday job, you could walk into a part time job, et cetera. And the nature of the labor market's changing. So what employers are doing is really important as well. So if you look for example at vacancies in, in a sector like hospitality, restaurants, pubs, hotels where a lot of kids would start their working lives, they're down by 50% in five years. Retail vacancies are down by not quite that, but they've been falling for 10 years. So jobs in shops and hotels and pubs and restaurants, where a lot of kids would start their working lives, those vacancies have been falling. So that's a big problem. Apprenticeship starts are down by a third amongst young people in 10 years. So these, if you like, entry routes into employment, they are being closed off. And if you put that together with the mental health crisis and some of the failures in the system, you've got quite a big problem.
- [23:33]
B
But isn't that partly the government's fault because it has become so expensive to employ young people? So I have a retail business. We employ nearly 100 people. A lot of them are 16 to 24 year old year olds. Yeah. Then they are the first time jobbers and they are, you know, some of them are from pretty tough backgrounds and they're often the best ones running the business. Our most profitable store is run by a 16 year old. She's amazing. Yeah, she's really, she's brilliant. But it's become a lot more expensive to employ them. You know, we've seen and I, I Understand why minimum wage needs to go up, but it's come at all together at once. You've got the. Particularly for the youngest of the young people, it's gone up like 26% over the last year or so and last coup years to employ them purely on their wages, then with national Insurance contributions on top, then with business rates going up as well, it's actually really tough for employers to employ young people. And so there is a government problem here with making the industries which provide those jobs. It just too expensive. Particularly as you say, hospitality, leisure, retail, they're the ones hardest hit by all of these. These essentially tax changes.
- [24:46]
A
Yes. And obviously we're talking to a lot of employers, you know, small and medium sized as well as sort of the bigger employers. So, you know, obviously we talk a lot to, you know, I had a meeting the other day with the chairman of Marks and Spencer's, for example. We're talking to Sainsbury.
- [25:00]
B
Good old Archie, he's been on the show.
- [25:01]
A
Good old Archie, exactly. So I saw Archie the other day over@ms.hq. didn't offer me a sandwich, which was very disappointing, by the way. But he did tell.
- [25:09]
B
I can't afford to now, Alan, but
- [25:13]
A
he did tell me me that one in eight prawns sold in the UK are sold in Marks Spencers. A little number.
- [25:18]
B
One in eight prawns.
- [25:19]
A
One in eight prawns, apparently.
- [25:20]
B
Wow.
- [25:20]
A
There's a good fact for you. So you learned something. But. Yes, so, so I hear that a lot. And obviously, look, if you're an employer and you know, you know, I am and have been an employer, every time we take on a young person, the truth is it's always a risk because they're unproven, aren't they? It's not like you're taking on somebody a bit older and they've got a track record and a CV and they've got a reference. So what we've got to do is make sure that the risks are minimized and the incentives are maximized for employers. So obviously we're looking at all of those issues in the round and we're looking at what employers could be doing more to make it easier for young people to come into the workplace. The really great thing I'm finding every conversation I'm in with every employer, particularly when you're talking to employees in a local community as part of a local area, they want to do something about it and they want to do something not just because, honestly, because it's a bit of like do gooding or ESG or whatever it is, they want to do it because they themselves very often are struggling to recruit skilled labor. And now that you've got levels of migration falling and a lot of employers are being overly reliant, arguably on immigrant labor, that's coming down. In fact, the net level of migration is probably going to be zero or below, according to the obr, within the next year, maybe even in this calendar year. Employers can't be on easy street anymore. And just assuming that migrant labor is the answer. So they're going to have to find a different source of labor. And that is, you know, there's a big. Here you have a million young people. Hold on a minute. Why aren't we enabling them into the workplace? That's obviously a job for government as well, but it's also a job for employers to think about, what do we need to be doing to make it easier for those kids to come into the workplace, particularly if they've got, you know, it's not easy any of this, but particularly if I have got high levels of anxiety. Society, for example.
- [27:15]
B
Yeah, but, but as you said. But it's not just Costa is also bureaucracy, because, as you say, it's much more difficult now to give kids work experience.
- [27:23]
A
Yes.
- [27:24]
B
And, you know, the, the. For lots of businesses, it's like, why bother? Because it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to get any benefit from it. They might come in, do a week and then we never see them again. And they have to burden the bureaucracy and the cost and the risk associated with that. And also, just given, you know, the, the changes just we're seeing to employment rights and everything else, it's just making it all trickier. Should there not be something just to make it easier for businesses to be able to do all this? Is that what you're focusing on telling government as well?
- [27:55]
A
I think in the end, there's a sort of deal to be done. I mean, my sense is there's a huge amount of goodwill amongst employers. It's not that they want to penalize this generation of young people. They want to provide opportunities for young people. The government can help or hinder that. Some of the things that the government is doing, for example, the youth guarantee, which is offering, you know, it's offering wage subsidies, for example, for young people who've been unemployed for a while, just to help with the costs of them employing people. I think that's a perfectly sensible thing to do. There's a big reform of the apprenticeship system that's needed far too many apprenticeships. Frankly, go to older workers, which is just when we were growing up. An apprenticeship is all about a young person learning a trade, getting the first, first onto the first rung of the career ladder and then progressing.
- [28:42]
B
But we can't forget about the people whose industries are changing and they need to be reskilled, all of that.
- [28:48]
A
But it's just overly skewed at the moment and it should be focused on young people. So I think there's a lot that government can do to help with that and government can probably do more. But then I think there's gotta be a deal with employers to say, okay, but you guys need to play your part as well. So what are you going to do to turn on that youth recruitment task app to make, I don't know, supported internships available, flexible working available. And I know all of this. I understand as an employer, I know all of these things are not straightforward, they never are. But if we're going to solve this problem, then it can't just be about what the government does. This has got to become a national cause for the country. It's got to become a movement for change where we're all accepting, whether as parents, as government, as local authorities, as mayors, as employers, we all have a part to play in solving this.
- [29:40]
B
So we've talked loads there, Alan, about what the problem is. Let's talk about solutions. But first we'll go to a quick break. This episode is sponsored by Starling, the bank that helps you organize your money, build great habits and stay in control of your spending. Now I talk a lot about financial literacy and its importance in our economy. Economy, you know, giving people knowledge but also confidence with money too. And Starlin reckons anyone can be good with money. And you can start simply by checking your balance daily. It gets easier every day and it takes the mystery out of it. And then the real value comes from digging into the details with tools like Starling Spending Intelligence. So this is an AI powered search bar within Starling Current accounts where you can ask a question about your spending habits and get an instant answer in app. It helps deepen your knowledge and make more informed money decisions. It's a little like having a financial co pilot in your pocket mapping out exactly where your money goes. Search Starling bank to find out more good with money starts here. Did you know about one in three people with plaque psoriasis may also develop psoriatic arthritis which causes joint pain, stiffness and swelling. Does this sound like you listen to what it sounds like to be a million miles away. Tremphya Guselcomab taken by injection is a prescription medicine for adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis who may benefit from taking injections or pills, pills or phototherapy. And for adults with active psoriatic arthritis, serious allergic reactions and increased risk of infections and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu like symptoms or if you need a vaccine. Imagine being a million miles away. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Trimfya. Tap this ad to learn more about about trimfia, including important safety information.
- [31:50]
A
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- [32:25]
B
On the apprenticeship point again. I did a kind of apprenticeship with Black and Decker before I went to uni.
- [32:32]
A
Moore.
- [32:32]
B
Yeah, Spenny Moore.
- [32:33]
A
Yes.
- [32:34]
B
Yeah, that plant. And you know that, that, that was something which again, our school really promoted that vocational education. A lot of the young people I'm talking to, it's not given to them as an school. It's, you know, lots of schools benefit from the kids staying on for a sixth form because they get that extra income you've got, you know, local further education colleges, you know, have been woefully underfunded for, for years now and it is more expensive to put on these vocational courses because of all the kit you need. And there's great businesses who are providing that in, in some wonderful colleges that I've been in, particularly around here. But there is this issue of, of it not being presented as an option to people, particularly at 16. Maybe it is a bit further down when the schools don't have anything to gain from keeping them but from a, at that beginning point schools are bothered about keeping them in the sixth form. And also the academics again, you know, because that is cheaper to fund as a course and because it's, you know, that a lot of prestige is seen and going to university and that's where they want to tell their, you know, young people, the, you know, the parents and everything. This is where our, however many kids got a union, whatever. So there is still that massive disconnect and a lack of parity of esteem and that offering not happening to young people early enough.
- [33:51]
A
Yeah, so I agree with that and I think schools have got a special responsibility in several regards here. One, if you look at other countries that have got far lower rates of young people not in education, employment and training than ours. So think of Holland, for example, about a third the rate that we have. Ireland, half the rate. Germany, much lower. Japan, much lower. One of the common characteristics is work experience is much, much more baked into what schools do here. It's totally haphazard. I mean, it really is. Very often kids are just told, off you go. Go and find a week's work experience. It's actually really important because then they get a taste of the workplace and critically, then they're able to tell a future prospective employer, I've done this. So at least they've got something to point to. So we've got to look at work experience, careers advice is again, I mean, it's actually improving from a terrible base, though.
- [34:44]
B
Like, honestly, that's got to.
- [34:47]
A
Much more part of what schools do, making sure the kids, by the time they leave are work ready and not just academically qualified, is the third thing that they've got to do. But the fourth thing, which is the one that you point is, Steph, is there's been a big emphasis. And look, I'm a chancellor, as you know, of a university, actually, the university where I went to as a student over in Lancaster, and I'm very proud of it. And I think higher education's a brilliant route for a lot of kids, but the truth is, we need more vocational skills and particularly, as I say, migration is falling now, so we've got to plug a big gap in the skilled labor market. Think about construction. The government wants to build a million and a half homes. Well, we've got to have sparkies and we've got to have plumbers and we've got to have bricklayers and all those type of skills that are desperately needed. And so schools have got a really important responsibility, not just to assume that it's the higher education route that is the destination for students.
- [35:44]
B
Absolutely. But there needs to be incentive there, though, for the schools, because teachers. I'm sure there'll be teachers listening to this going, what more do you want us to do? We're already doing a million things. But they're not. They're not judged on that. You know, when Ofsted come in, they're not looking at any of these things that. And. And so teachers jobs is often hard enough just trying to meet the Ofsted requirements. And in Those schools where you are struggling to get a child into this school, where they might not be, have been fed, where they're in, you know, enclosed, they've been in for days, where everything going on at home means it's really difficult for them to concentrate. Ofsted doesn't look at that. They're just like, have they got their maths and English? No, you're not doing very well. And so the incentive needs to change so that teachers are shown value and shown worth for all these other things that they give kids which will make them work. Ready?
- [36:34]
A
Yes. So I think that's exactly one of the things that we're looking at, which is. Is the regulatory environment that schools are subject to through Ofsted and is the. The financial incentive environment, which they're subject through the Department for Education, Are they pointing in the right direction?
- [36:53]
B
No.
- [36:53]
A
So. So. And if they're not, then obviously that. And that will come to that in time, then that needs to change.
- [36:59]
B
But in time, that's what I'm worried about. Alan, sorry to interrupt, but like my best mate who's a head teacher around here, in a. In a tough school, majority of the kids taught English, second language. They. She was rounded the other day in tears, having just had Ofsted round and she was like, oh, you know, they just kept asking me question about the academics and these kids are like, going through. She deals with social services more than anything else in her job. She's constantly, you know, it's. It's less about the curriculum and the education and more about survival. And, you know, it. That's not how it should be. I know this isn't your fault, Alan, but this is the type of thing that I get really frustrated about because we keep saying, oh, yeah, maybe we need to look at the system, maybe we need to. And we should change it. And it. Then. It. It doesn't. It doesn't.
- [37:43]
A
The only thing I'm going to say to you, okay, so I'm. There's lots of reasons for pessimism, right? I mean, and I've recited quite a lot of the statistics and all the things that go. Going wrong. I'll give you two reasons for optimism. One is. Or three, actually, young people themselves, okay? When you meet with them, honestly, talk to them, listen to them about their lives, sure, there's issues that they've got, but honestly, energy, aspiration, appetite, it's there. People, these kids want. They want. Want what we all wanted. An opportunity to get on in the world, fulfill your aspirations. I don't believe fundamentally that has changed okay. That's the first thing. The second reason for optimism is, as I say in society, this is a visceral issue. I mean, just everywhere. And people not only want to talk about it, they want to do something about it. So when I was in Newcastle talking to the leader of the council and the chief executive there and saying, listen, you know, in the area I grew up, Benwell, I don't know what the rate is, but it might be one in four kids who are neet. This is absolutely appalling. It's becoming normal. What are you going to do about it? They've set up a neat reduction task force. They've got the local employers together, they've got the schools, they've got the college and the universities together, and they're going to reduce the neat rate in that city. They're just going to do it. Right. Which is great. Second reason for it. But here's the third. To come to your point, politically, this is a huge issue for the government, okay? And this has been set up, this region view to be cross government. So sure, I'm working with Pat McFadden, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, but I'm working with Bridget Philpson, the Education Secretary, Wes Green, the Health Secretary, if this has got cross government buy in, Rachel Reeves, Keir Stadt, all these people. And the reason that I'm optimistic about that is, let's be sort of blunt about it, this has hardly been a government at times that has had a big cause cause around which it's obvious that it is rallying and which is a cause that aligns with where public opinion is and public concerns. And indeed, I would argue public fears are about this next generation. This is that area. And that's why I believe this is going to become a massive issue, not just for the country, but a massive issue for the government. Government. And when I make recommendations to the government, I can tell you now they are going to be challenging recommendations because we can't keep going on like this. The system isn't working. Okay? Now, I'm not a government minister, so I'm not making the decisions in the end, but believe.
- [40:16]
B
But you've been one and they listen to you.
- [40:17]
A
Well, we'll see. But I mean, the point is we're not gonna look, as far as I'm concerned, there's no point in doing this if I feel like I can't say what I want to say. And I am going to say what I want to say. And some of it is probably pretty obvious from this discussion. That things aren't working and they need to change and the government's got an incentive to change things. Let's remember this is a government that was elected on a one word slogan. What was it? Change.
- [40:45]
B
I've forgotten. You know, I was thinking, what was the one word slogan? Because I mean, a lot has happened since they've come in and there's been a lot of change. Probably not change they would have wanted.
- [40:54]
A
Like, you know, it's a good idea to practice what you preach. So this is an opportunity to do do.
- [40:59]
B
Yeah. So then, because I am an optimist and I know I don't sound like it sometimes, particularly when I'm talking about this, but it, it is hard when you live in a place and you know, you've grown up in a place as you have yourself, Alan, where things don't improve and you see people really grafting their whole life and things just don't feel like they're getting better. That it is politically the reason why we've seen a lot of, you know, the growth in form and things like that is because. Because people feel left behind and feel like no, no one so far has made any difference to their lives. But I'm optimistic because I think you're right. I think at the end of the day, despite policy, often it can be people mobilizing and, you know, communities who are fed up who make the difference. And there's lots of all the unsung heroes. Like a charity I work in Middlesbrough is focused on helping girls who are most likely to become nates. Focusing on helping them and finding, you know, giving them inspiration, aspiration, that's all going to, going on in a kind of individual, siloed, local level. What I guess my point is, is so do you think we are going to see real change then? I know you can't tell us the everything you're going to say to the government yet because you're still figuring it out. But you know, careers, that's really important, as you've said, that that parity of esteem around vocational training has to change.
- [42:14]
A
Yes.
- [42:14]
B
You know, because we're so with that. That's where the skills gaps are. And also so you're, you know, the, I guess there's a parental, the parents element in all of this. You know, how do you mob parents who are disengaged with education for their kids because they didn't see any value in it themselves? I agree there's so many elements to this. But do you genuinely think we're gonna see change?
- [42:37]
A
Yes, I Do. I mean, honestly, I wouldn't be doing it if I just thought, oh God, we're gonna just, we're just gonna, you know, write a couple of reports and that'll be very interesting. There'll be a bit of media coverage, then it'll all die. I'm not interested in that. I don't need that. So what I'm. What I'm doing and just to prove the choice change not only is going to happen, but already is happening as I'm going around the country doing a lot of visits to a lot of places, particularly areas where this problem is concentrated. Everywhere I'm going, I'm saying to the local leaders, well, that's a mayor, council leader, mp, employers, college guys, what are you going to do about it? Because don't wait for my review and my report. You can do something about it. I was in Bradford, as I said the other the week they used to have amongst the worst neat rate for 16 to 17 year olds in the country. Right? They've really focused on it, they've identified who each of these kids are, what is it that should be done to help them, et cetera. And now they're in the, I think they're in the second quartile or something. They've really raised their performance. So everywhere I'm going I'm saying, get behind this issue, but more importantly, form a little task force in the area of the key decision makers, including the employers, and work out what you're going to do about it. Set yourself an objective, I don't know, reduce the neat rate by a third in your area in three years. It's entirely doable. That doesn't need any public policy training suggested by me, that just needs you guys coming together, working out who these kids are, what on earth needs to be done. Make it very personal to them, get going on this now. And honestly, this is beginning to happen all over the country. And so by the time I report, I really, really want to feel like there's a movement behind this. So I'll give you another example. You know, I had a brilliant session with the Newcastle United and just happens to have a Newcastle supporter, as you know, with the foundation. I know, sorry about that. No treading into dangerous territory with the foundation, which is just a brilliant, brilliant charity and has got reach into parts of Newcastle that no statutory organization will ever have because of its brand. Right. It's got brand value. And so we're talking to the Premier League about, okay, how can we make sure that every single foundation of every single Premier League club, but also the ones who aren't in the Premier League, that they're sort of investing in this, making it a real issue using their brand power to help these young kids and to cajole, persuade employers to help with this. That's going to happen all over the country. So that's going on now. That's happening now.
- [45:17]
B
Yeah, that's so true. Because I know with the Middlesbrough Football
- [45:19]
A
Club is a much better one.
- [45:21]
B
They've got an amazing foundation and it's absolutely, you know, the thing they do things like do parents evenings in the football club, you know, to give that incentive as well to parents who might be disengaged with their education system, you know, a chance to go and see the football club as well. And I mean you shouldn't need to do that, but that's where we are with things at the moment. There's just one other thing I wanted to ask you about before we wrap things up. We had Mark Warner on the show recently who is the founder of Faculty AI. So you know this unicorn AI business set up in Britain recently bought by Accenture or in the process of being for billions. And I he's got a three year old and I said to him, what do you think your 3 year old should be learning about now? Like, has your view changed? And this comes to your point about numeracy and literacy because he said AI and computers are going to do all of that. What I would be telling my 3 year old to do, he said, which breaks his heart as a mathematician, mathematician is not to focus on all of that, but to focus purely on creativity and communication and all of that. Is there a danger we might be out of date in our thinking about the most important things coming out of education?
- [46:37]
A
So I think we probably are already out of date. When you talk to employees about what is it that they really value by and large, of course, actually they do want kids who are literally numerous who are able to do that. But the thing things that they're really valuing in particular now are so called interpersonal skills. So can you make eye contact? Can you have a conversation? So a friend of mine has led the movement in schools nationally to introduce what's called oracy into the curriculum. Just the ability to talk and communicate. And that's the second thing that employers say. We want communication skills, we want collaboration skills. Because nowadays a lot of business and work generally is a team based sport. Think about what happens in healthcare, for example. It's now not just about what the doctor does, it's Working as part of a multidisciplinary team, working together, so all of those skills become more and more important and the creativity. And I'd put that together with agility, because if you think about what's going to happen in the labor market, it's going to change very rapidly. You know, the days are gone. When I was getting careers advice from John Marley School in the West End of Newcastle, it was a 16. You were either. I got sent to the DHSS in Long Benton and the Northern Rock in Gosforth because I was one of the brightly kids. So I was on the white collar route. Most of my mates got sent to Swan Hunters or Biggest Arms on the Scotswood Road because they were blue collar. And it was assumed that that would be a trajectory in life. It's not like that anymore because jobs are changing so fast. So unless we can inculcate creativity, agility, communication, collaboration together as skills in young people from the outset, we're not going to set them up. We're not even setting them up now.
- [48:28]
B
No.
- [48:28]
A
Never mind what's going to happen in the future.
- [48:30]
B
Right, so when you see Pat McFadden and Bridget Phillipson next, you need to say to them, get the. Let's get this curriculum sorted and let's get Ofsted to judge them on these things and not just on maths and English. That's what I think. And all the other things, things that they have to do. Right. I should let you get back to your life, Alan. I wonder if it's quite funny having two Northerners who've referred to the north so often in this. I hope we haven't put off everyone who doesn't live in the north, but these are problems that aren't just northern, they are, you know, we've. We've used lots of examples of things we know in the North. But, you know, this is, this is not just about our, our area, it's about other pockets of, of society and, you know, the Southwest and places, places where things are really tricky for the young people there.
- [49:13]
A
Everywhere. I was down in Bristol the other day. It's not dissimilar, you know, parts of the southeast, parts of London. I mean, everybody thinks, you know, everybody in the Northeast thinks London's like boomtown, but go to parts of Islington. Oh, my word. You know, these are. There's huge levels of deprivation. Big, big, big, big issues. And so I think this is. Honestly, I think it's an issue that is one that genuinely can unite the whole country. Country everybody worries about, as a parent, as A grandparent. You always worry about the future of your kids.
- [49:44]
B
Yeah, yeah, totally. That's. Whenever I was doing the budget coverage for the BBC, I'd often be sent to various places around the country, normally in a hard hat and hivers. So much so someone actually set up a website, a fetish website of Stefan safety gear. But that's, that's another story. I know, I know, but that the most common thing said to me was about fuel prices and about their kids and the, their grandkids. Those are the, the always. Every single year, every budget was always. That was what real people were saying. Real people. You know what I mean? We say that in telly terms, but those are the two issues they care most about, is how much they're paying to travel about and what's happening to their kids and grandkids. Alan, it's been great to talk to you and I really do hope this makes a difference because it isn't just. This isn't just a social issue. This is about productivity, it's about economic growth. It's all of those things too. And you know about the spending on public services and everything else. So it is one I hope that we can, we can solve. So good luck and will you come back and talk to us once all the. You've delivered all the information?
- [50:49]
A
Yeah, yeah. Yes. There'll be two, two reports coming out. So one before the summer, then one in the autumn. So absolutely delighted to know and thank you for having me on again. It's been great. Thank you.
- [50:58]
B
Thank you very much, Alan. Right, that's it from us. Bye bye.
- [51:06]
A
Why did we really go to war with Iraq? And did Saddam Hussein really have weapons of mass destruction? I'm Gordon Carrera, national security journalist. And I'm David McCloskey, author and former CIA analyst. We are the hosts of the Rest Is Classified. And in our latest series, we are telling the true story of one of history's biggest intelligence failures, Iraq, dubbed WMD. In 2003, the US and UK told the world that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. But they were wrong. This wasn't a simple lie. It was something far more complicated, far more interesting and far more dangerous. Spies who believed their sources, politicians who wanted the public to believe in the threat, and a dictator who couldn't prove he'd already destroyed the weapons. In this series, we go deep inside The CIA and MI6, go into the rooms where decisions were made and look at the sources who fabricated the intelligence that took us to war. The Iraq war reshaped the Middle east and permanently weakened public trust in governments
- [52:11]
B
and intelligence agencies, and its consequences are
- [52:14]
A
still playing out today. Plus, in a Declassified Club exclusive, we are joining joined by three people who were at the heart of the decision to go to war. Former head of MI6, Richard Dearlove, Tony Blair's former communications director, Alistair Campbell, and former acting head of the CIA, Michael Morell. So get the full story by listening to the rest is classified and subscribing to the Declassified Club.
- [52:39]
B
Wherever you get your podcasts.