291. Does Burnham have any wiggle room?

Summary

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The Rest Is Money – Episode 291: Does Burnham have any wiggle room?

Date: June 28, 2026
Hosts: Robert Peston, Steph McGovern
Guest: Paul Johnson (Former Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Robert Peston and Steph McGovern are joined by economist Paul Johnson to dissect the financial realities faced by Andy Burnham as he stands poised to become the next UK Prime Minister. The discussion dives into the constraints Burnham will face—particularly around Labour’s fiscal rules—whether there is any practical “wiggle room” for maneuver, and what genuine economic regeneration might require. The hosts and guest analyze tax policy, the political tightrope, market perceptions, and potential changes at the top of the Treasury.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What are “Fiscal Rules”—and Why Do They Matter?

[02:58 – 04:50]

• Fiscal Rules Defined:

  • Paul Johnson clarifies that two main rules bind the government:
    1. By 2029/30, borrowing is allowed only for investment—not day-to-day spending.
    2. Overall debt (as measured by the government) must be falling as a fraction of national income by that year.
  • The government is currently just about meeting these targets, but Johnson notes:

    “We’re meeting those rules… only by pretending that we’re going to be cutting spending on a bunch of public services in that last year.” (Paul Johnson, 03:34)

• Rule Interpretation and Investment:

  • Rachel Reeves’s alteration allows netting off financial assets (like the student loan book) from debt, though this doesn't cover physical infrastructure.
  • Robert Peston suggests there may be scope for “financial engineering” to maximize headroom for investment, but Johnson cautions this is limited in reality.

2. The Reality Behind UK Borrowing: Are We Really Tight Fisted?

[06:09 – 07:45]

• A “Loose” Fiscal History:

  • Contrary to claims that the UK is overly stringent, Johnson says:

    “This country has seen its debt rise by more than almost any other major economy over the last 25 years… We have run a looser fiscal policy than almost any other major country… That has come back to bite us really hard in the backside.” (Paul Johnson, 06:28)

• Interest Costs:

  • The UK is now spending over £100 billion a year just servicing debt interest—a direct result of years of relaxed borrowing.

• Takeaway:

  • Calls for more investment must reckon with the real cost of borrowing and market skepticism, “it’s not a free lunch.”

3. Investment, Growth, and the Role of the Private Sector

[07:45 – 09:22]

• Public vs Private Investment:

  • Peston points out that the UK under-invests compared to competitors, contributing to low growth.
  • Johnson agrees, but highlights:

    “The bigger gap is in the private sector. Nowadays we’re actually nearer the average on the public sector.” (Paul Johnson, 08:09)

• Who Pays for Investment?

  • Any major increase will require tough choices: cut welfare, increase taxes, or push more cost to future generations—if markets will pay for it.

4. Bond Markets and the Reality of Constraints

[08:49 – 09:50]

• Market Judgment:

  • Ultimately, the bond markets judge your fiscal credibility—if they don’t like what they see, borrowing gets more expensive.
  • UK already faces higher rates:

    “They [the bond markets] charge us more than almost any other country.”
    (Paul Johnson, 08:57)

• Why?

  • Reasons include higher inflation, reliance on imported gas, and loose fiscal policy.

5. The Labour Manifesto: Taxes and Political Promises

[09:50 – 11:27]

• Labour’s Position:

  • Burnham pledges to not “tax working people” and stick to the manifesto.
  • Johnson is scathing:

    “The idea this government isn’t taxing working people more is for the birds. The biggest tax rise in history... a decade’s worth of freezes to income tax allowances… and increases in employer national insurance contributions.”
    (Paul Johnson, 10:04)

• Manifesto Honesty:

  • In practice, much larger tax rises and spending than promised:

    “Everyone’s manifesto wasn’t honest.” (Paul Johnson, 11:20) “They were all lies. I mean, we talked about this for a good year before the election, you and I.” (Robert Peston, 11:22)

6. Is Equalizing Capital Gains and Income Tax a Solution?

[13:59 – 16:57]

• Likely Tax Reforms:

  • Peston speculates Burnham might equalize capital gains and income tax rates, compensating with inflation allowances.

• Paul Johnson’s Perspective:

  • He calls such reform “sensible,” especially if an inflation allowance is included, but warns:

    “Don’t think that’s going to change the fiscal numbers any dramatically.” (Paul Johnson, 16:25)

    • Even drastic changes would only net a few billion—far less than some Burnham supporters assume.

• Quote on Naivety:

  “I think there’s a bit of naivety in the Burnham camp… They think it’s somehow going to raise some colossal sum of money, which it just won’t.” (Robert Peston, 16:57)

7. How Important is the Chancellor? Who Should Burnham Pick?

[17:08 – 20:25]

• Chancellor’s Role:

  • Johnson: “The Chancellor’s really important… But my sense is they’re going to get their lead from Andy Burnham.”
  • Peston highlights the benefit of someone with treasury experience—favoring Ed Miliband, though Miliband’s market credibility is a question.

• Qualities Needed:

  • Johnson: Prime Minister and Chancellor should be “on the same page”; Chancellor must also be broadly acceptable to the markets.

• On Potential Choices:

  • Steph: “That makes me think not Wes Streeting.” (19:42)
  • Paul: “He doesn’t fit the first two of those.”
  • Robert: “Apparently she’s 100% [name redacted by transcript]”

• Final Analysis:

  • Consensus that Ed Miliband remains a likely choice—if markets can be reassured.

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Memorable Quotes

• On Fiscal Rules and Gamesmanship:

  “You can treat your rules however you like and you can make a case for more investment, but it’s not a free lunch.”
  – Paul Johnson (07:27)

• On Political Promises:

  “Everyone’s manifesto wasn’t honest.”
  – Paul Johnson (11:20)

  “They were all lies. I mean, we talked about this for a good year before the election, you and I.”
  – Robert Peston (11:22)

• On Tax Reforms:

  “Don’t think that’s going to change the fiscal numbers any dramatically.”
  – Paul Johnson (16:25)

  “There’s a bit of naivety in the Burnham camp… They think it’s somehow going to raise some colossal sum of money, which it just won’t.”
  – Robert Peston (16:57)

• On Chancellor Qualities:

  “You need to balance those things out against one another. And I’m sure those are the sorts of things that [Burnham] will be taking cognizance of.”
  – Paul Johnson (19:39)

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Important Timestamps

• Discussion on Fiscal Rules & UK Debt: 02:58 – 07:45
• Public vs Private Investment & Market Judgment: 07:45 – 09:50
• Taxing Working People & Manifesto Realities: 09:50 – 11:27
• Capital Gains and Income Tax Equalization: 13:59 – 16:57
• Choosing the Chancellor & Treasury Dynamics: 17:08 – 20:25

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Episode Tone & Language

The conversation is candid, analytical, and lightly sceptical—often wry in tone, especially when dissecting the gap between political rhetoric and economic reality. Paul Johnson’s contributions are detail-rich and clear, while Peston and McGovern push for clarity on practical constraints and political realities.

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Summary

This episode offers a sharp, reality-based look at the options Andy Burnham would have as Prime Minister to promote economic growth—unpacking both the constraints of fiscal rules and the limitations of popular tax reforms. The episode provides valuable context for understanding the fiscal, political, and market forces that will shape the next UK government’s approach, revealing the extent to which room for maneuver may be more rhetorical than real.

Transcript

[Steph McGovern]

What Andy Burnham should be doing if he becomes the next Prime Minister.

[Robert Peston]

I think the manifesto will make it almost impossible for him to do the kind of stuff we need to do to regenerate the economy.

[Paul Johnson]

The chance is really important. You probably don't want someone who's got their eye on your job.

[Steph McGovern]

That makes me think, not worth streeting. This episode is brought to you by Octopus Energy. Greg Jackson, the CEO, is with us now. Greg, I want you to look into your crystal ball and tell me what's your vision in terms of, let's say, 10 years for how the average UK house will be powered.

[Greg Jackson]

As we build out more and more renewables on the grid, the underlying electricity system's much more volatile and that means that people who've got their own solar panels and their own batteries can help balance the grid. And cars are going to be doing that as well. So you're going to end up with a system that looks a lot more like the Internet, where everything is automatically improving, just like in the Internet improves your bandwidth, here it'll be improving your energy cost and prices are going to come down. And by the way, it brings prices down even for those people who don't have the solar panels and batteries or the electric cars, because it makes the whole system more efficient for everybody.

[Steph McGovern]

Let's hope that's right then, Greg. Thank you. Now, on with today's episode.

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[Robert Peston]

Hello and welcome to the Rest Is Money with me, Robert Peston.

[Steph McGovern]

And me, Steph McGovern. Now, today we want to focus on what Andy Burnham should be doing if he becomes the next Prime Minister. And also what he is constrained by his saying he's going to stick with the current fiscal rules, not deviate from Labour's manifesto. So what does that all mean in reality? To talk about this, we've got Paul Johnson back with us, former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

[Robert Peston]

I mean, I'm going to be really interested in what he has to say, for the very simple reason that I think the manifesto will make it almost impossible for him to do the kind of stuff we need to do to regenerate the economy. But those around him disagree with me. What does Paul think?

[Steph McGovern]

Obviously, everyone's talking about what Andy Burnham is going to do when he potentially very likely becomes Prime Minister. There is constraints around him, though, aren't they? So one of the things everyone keeps talking about is fiscal rules. And he has said, now, he said that he's going to stick with these fiscal rules, just remind us what they are and what they mean.

[Paul Johnson]

Broadly speaking, there are two rules. One is that we should, three years out, so by 20, 29, 30, be borrowing only to invest. So that constrains the amount we can borrow in that year. And there's a second rule which says that overall debt, in the way the government currently measures it, be falling as a fraction of national income in that year. Now, we're currently meeting those rules, not by very much, but we're currently meeting those rules on OBR forecasts, though one of the reasons we're meeting those rules is the government is saying, I would say pretending that it's going to be cutting spending on a bunch of public services in that last year, in that election year. So that's how tight we are up against those particular rules.

[Robert Peston]

Can I talk to you about the second rule which Rachel Reeves changed? It was probably her biggest change when it came to, you know, the fiscal rules, and it allows her to net off certain categories of assets from debt when measuring whether the national debt is rising or falling. You know, assets like, for example, the student loan book can be netted off. Talking to those close to Andy Banham, they say that they believe that he could, in inverted commas, interpret that rule in a different way, which would somehow allow a lot more government investment. Do you think that's right?

[Paul Johnson]

Well, I mean, the rule which has got this lovely name persnuffle public sector net funding liabilities is designed really only to capture financial instruments.

[Robert Peston]

That's right.

[Paul Johnson]

So the student loan book is a financial instrument. It's not designed to capture the value value of physical assets. Now, you might think that's a bit

[Robert Peston]

odd, but can I just ask you a question on that? Because one of the things I wondered about when they designed the Rule is, let's just say you are giving a lot of money, which they are in support of a new nuclear power station right now. One of the things that I was quite struck by was when Ed Miliband announced a big chunk of money for, I can't remember which of the power stations it was. It was not deducted as an asset from the snuffle, even though it was going into some kind of corporate structure. And I just wondered essentially whether it was possible to do some putting, in a slightly derogatory way, some financial engineering with some of these things so that you could essentially do more of it and deduct it from the debt measure.

[Paul Johnson]

I mean, two things. I mean, or three things. Infrastructure investment is already treated differently from day to day because it doesn't count against the borrowing rule. So it's already treated relatively generous.

[Robert Peston]

It's not day to day, but it's not. But it's not netted out of the.

[Paul Johnson]

But just say any infrastructure investment is more generously treated. Secondly, there is a reason for treating financial stuff differently from other stuff, which is it's actual cash that you're borrowing. So the markets, you know, it doesn't matter how you define it. If you're borrowing money, you're borrowing money, you're borrowing money. And the question is, how much can you actually borrow from the markets? You might be able to persuade the markets that you're going to get such a good return on this that they're happier to do it. So the question is not really, in the end, what is your specific structure of your rules? It's how well your economic policy is defined and how much you can convince people that you're doing a good thing. But the last thing I'd say is that we hear a lot about people saying governments don't borrow enough, they don't invest enough, and you might argue they don't invest enough. This country has seen its debt rise by more than almost any other major economy over the last 25 years. We have run a loose fiscal policy, a looser fiscal policy than almost any other major country over the last, certainly since financial crisis, arguably since the turn of the century. So what we're not in is a world in which, you know, we have really tightened down relative to everybody else. We haven't. We've been incredibly loose relative to everyone else in our fiscal policy. And that has come back to bite us really, really hard in the backside. Because again, as we've discussed, we're spending well over £100 billion a year just on the Interest, this stuff is not free. You know, you can treat your rules however you like and you can make a case for more investment, but it's not a free lunch.

[Robert Peston]

But you yourself, in your analysis of why we have a low growth economy, point out that relative to most of our competitors, and this is public sector and private sector, we invest less than other countries and that is a direct contributor to low growth. So if we're not going to break this downward cycle, we got to find a way in both private sector and public sector to invest more.

[Paul Johnson]

Sure, absolutely. And actually the bigger gap is in the private sector. Nowadays we're actually nearer the average on the public sector, but of course we're still suffering from actually, particularly you look at the 1990s where invested nothing. I mean, that government in the 1990s. Ken Clark's got a very good reputation in a way as a chancellor, but he was disastrous in terms of the total lack of investment over that period. So I'm not arguing against investment, but I am saying A, it's not free and B, we might want to cut welfare to fund the investment, we might want to increase taxes or we might say we're going to ask the next generation to pay for it. But you ask the next generation to pay for it only if you can persuade people to lend you the money in the short term.

[Steph McGovern]

And isn't the point as well, no matter what the rules are, it will be the markets and the bond markets who judge whether they are being followed or not and will decide whether.

[Paul Johnson]

Well, they'll judge whether they think we're a good bet. And don't forget at the moment they don't think we're a good bet. They charge us more than almost any other country. Now, there's all sorts of reasons. For that reason is actually our inflation has run ahead of other, particularly G7 economies over the last 15 years. I mean, embarrassing, I hadn't realized this until relatively recently, but our inflation rate is on average being 1 percentage point above that of other major economies because

[Steph McGovern]

of our reliance on energy and things like that.

[Paul Johnson]

Well, partly because we've actually been running relatively loose fiscal policies, partly because the way our labor market works, partly because we were so generous with energy subsidies and so on that it then pushes up. And actually we are very dependent in energy on imported gas. I mean, there's all sorts of reasons for this. But again, if you're going to splash more cash, you do need to worry about inflation and the impact that that then has on borrowing.

[Steph McGovern]

And the other big thing here is obviously that Andy Burnham saying he will stick to the Labour manifesto, which they obviously came into power with, although he wasn't an MP then, he didn't come in get elected on that, which would mean not taxing working people.

[Paul Johnson]

But of course, they've already driven a huge horse and coach through that. I mean, you know, the idea that this government isn't taxing working people more is for the birds. I mean, the biggest tax rise in history, arguably under both the last government and this is a decade's worth of freezes to income tax allowances and thresholds. That's an enormous increase in tax on working people. As, by the way, is the increase in employer national insurance contributions. That is an increase in tax on working people. Now, I'm not saying that was a bad thing to do because, you know, if you want to do the things that the government wants to do on public, public services and indeed on investment, then you need to find some way of raising it. Certainly the spirit of the Labour manifesto has been chucked in the wastepaper basket a long time ago now, in terms of the precise letter which says they're not going to raise rates of income tax and so on, then maybe that's still being kept to. But don't forget the Labour manifesto said we have a fully costed manifesto and here are £6 billion worth of tax rises and spending rises and what have they done? Something like 60 billion of tax rises and 80 or something billion of spending increases. Now, again, I'm not saying that was the wrong thing to do, as. As you'll know, I wanged on for hours before the election about how that was the most likely outcome and how everyone's manifesto wasn't honest.

[Robert Peston]

They were all. They were all lies. I mean, we talked about this for a good year before the election, you and I.

[Steph McGovern]

Well, Paul, I'm going to pause you there loads more still to ask you, but we're just going to go to a quick break. This episode is brought to you by Vanguard. Look, if you're listening to a podcast about finances, you likely already know that your money could be working harder. But we know it can feel overwhelming knowing where to get started. And even dipping your toe into investing can make you feel out of your depth. It's a mindset that's pretty hard to shake. Without the right guidance, you might even find yourself wishing you could just get the pros to invest your money for you. Well, you can. With their managed isa, Vanguard's experts do the hard work for you. They'll match you to an investment plan that feels right for you and they'll handle the rest. No second guessing, just smart professional management. So stop wondering how to start investing and start making your money work harder. Search Vanguard Managed ISA to find out more. When investing your capital is at risk, tax rules apply.

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[Robert Peston]

is striking to me that Burnham I mean I don't think he's going to be able to find the relevant 24 billion as it were. But he implied that he disapproves actually of the increase in employers national insurance. One of the reforms that I think is highly likely that he will do would be to equalize the rates of capital gains and income tax. Now I assume he would couple that with and essentially reintroducing generous inflation allowances so that you do get protected or the value of your initial investment is protected as it were. I can't remember what your view is on that kind of reform because obviously there is quite a lot of tax planning by people to convert income into capital which essentially does reduce essentially the tax rate of wealthier people. Is that kind of reform sensible? What kind of money could it raise?

[Paul Johnson]

Yeah, I think there Are some. I mean, there are definitely sensible things you can do with capital gains tax. One of them is to increase the rates, but at least give an allowance for inflation. And actually you need to give an allowance of inflation plus a bit, in my view. So the other thing you also need to do is stop forgiving capital gains at death. So if you increase rates, you just give people an even bigger incentive to hold on to things until they can pass it on to the next generation, because it's just completely forgiven. Would it raise lots of money? I don't know. It certainly wouldn't raise very large amounts of money. Remember, capital gains tax is a relatively small tax.

[Robert Peston]

We're talking a few billion, probably not more than 10 billion.

[Paul Johnson]

Oh, you wouldn't get more than 10. I mean, even 10 billion would be something like a 50 increase in the revenue from capital gains tax. Now, you're not, you know, you're not going to get that without some really dramatic change. And the impact on economic growth is you. You do need to concern yourself a bit about that. I'm having a senior moment now and I can't remember the name of the Fed chief who just died.

[Steph McGovern]

Greenspan.

[Paul Johnson]

Greenspan. Rightly or wrongly, his shtick was that capital gains tax is the worst tax in the world for the point of view of economic growth. I'm not sure if that's true, but there's certainly some evidence that you need to worry about it.

[Steph McGovern]

Well, talking to entrepreneurs about that, it can sometimes stop people selling their businesses, though, and then holding onto them for longer because they don't want to pay a capital gains tax, and then that can stop the growth of that business by new eyes coming in and making it better.

[Paul Johnson]

Now, I say, I think if you give a decent allowance for inflation, plus a bit, that mitigates a lot of those concerns. And don't forget, this is what we had under Nigel Lawson. I mean, we had capital gains tax rates which were equalized to income tax rates, but with an allowance for inflation. And we've been messing around with it for the last 30 years. It wouldn't be a bad outcome if we got back to capital gains tax rates at income tax rates, but with an allowance for inflation. But don't think that's going to change the fiscal numbers any dramatically.

[Robert Peston]

Well, that is my concern. I think there's a bit of naivety in the Burnham camp about this because I think they think it's somehow going to raise some colossal sum of money, which it just won't.

[Paul Johnson]

I mean, it's just, you know, Just simple arithmetic. You don't need to be an economist

[Steph McGovern]

to see that everyone's talking about Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister. How important is the Chancellor rule? Does it matter who they are?

[Paul Johnson]

The Chancellor's really important, but my sense is that they're going to get their lead from. From Andy Burnham, because he's, you know, I think one of the issues sometimes is that, that Prime Ministers don't really take enough notice of what's going on in the Treasury. Equally. It's a huge job and obviously the Chancellor is going to be really important in helping set that direction. It's always the most important decision that I think any new Prime Minister makes when they're setting their top team.

[Robert Peston]

One of the reasons why there are those close to Bernard who favor Ed Miliband as Chancellor. Putting to one side, whether the bond markets love him or hate him, or North Sea investors love him or hate him, just put that over there. The one thing that he does have is experience for years of working in the treasury. And if I'm honest with you, one of the things that I felt in the end was a problem for Rachel Reeves is I just felt, particularly at the outset, the officials just ran rings around her because she just had no experience of working in that institution. I think if you want to govern, you've got to have somebody at the treasury who knows how to manage the institution well.

[Paul Johnson]

You also need someone who knows what they want to do. So, obviously, Gordon Brown had no experience with the institution when he came in, but he stamped his authority, for good or bad, very, very fast, with the help of a couple of very, very abled special advisors. And of course, Ed Miliband was one of those. And it was very strik. Lord Nick McPherson, who was the Permanent Secretary at the treasury, has made some quite, quite strong interventions, saying he thinks Ed Miliband would be perfectly good as a Chancellor because he's got that experience and he understands the treasury and all those sorts of things. There are two things that I think Prime Minister needs to think about when appointing a Chancellor. One is that they need to be broadly on the same page. I mean, you don't want them to be dramatically going in different directions, more fighting.

[Steph McGovern]

That's all we'd have.

[Paul Johnson]

You probably don't want someone who, you know, you think has got their eye on your job, but you also do want someone who is going to be reasonably acceptable, as it were, to the people who we need to borrow money from. So you need to balance those things out against one another. And I'm sure those are the sorts of things that he'll be, he'll be taking cognizance.

[Steph McGovern]

That makes me think not Wes street in.

[Paul Johnson]

Well, he doesn't, he doesn't fit the first two of those.

[Steph McGovern]

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Maybe not Ed, though, on the basis of the market reaction. Maybe the current home secretary.

[Paul Johnson]

Well, I don't want to say that.

[Robert Peston]

Apparently she's 100%.

[Paul Johnson]

One other person I think is 100, can't do it now is John Healey because he can't go to treasury unless he's going to, you know, find a huge amount of money for defense, which I'd be very surprised if, if that's going to be.

[Steph McGovern]

Who does that mean?

[Robert Peston]

I think there is still a pretty good chance that it will be Ed Miliband, but I think, you know, they've got to find a way, if it is Miliband, to reassure markets, as it were.

[Steph McGovern]

Yeah. Well, this is going to leave us loads more to talk about, isn't it?

[Paul Johnson]

There's lots and lots.

[Steph McGovern]

Paul, we need to let you go.

[Paul Johnson]

Thank you very much.

[Steph McGovern]

Thank you as ever, for your time. The door's locked though, so you're not getting out.

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